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NPD Sales Results for May 2013 [Up2: 360, 3DS Est, Software lowest since May 2000]

QaaQer

Member
June: Game and Wario, Luigi U
July: Nothing
August: Pikmin 3
September: Wonderful 101
October: Wind Waker
November: Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze
December: Super Mario 3D World

Roughly a mid-high tier game a month. Should help things.

IDK about that. Pikmin is niche, WW is a remake, Wonderful 101 is a new IP and DKCRTF is a 2d platformer. Supermario should push a few consoles though.
 
Generational fatigue doesn't explain the 3DS' awful sales. This is a console that should be in its prime. And unlike the Vita and WiiU, it's been getting a steady diet of quality software this year.

And when the DS was in town, we weren't in the middle of an IOS, Android, app, etc. boom. It was DS, PSP, or you kinda went without. Not so anymore.
 
Sure no one's buying the vita, but the attach rate for those who do seems to be pretty good. Also whatever software numbers you see for retail bear in mind that digital sales are 60% of total sales. Which makes sense being a portable and all. I know I've bought 1 retail title and more than 20 digital (full priced releases too). Sony really need to drop the price of the memory sticks and come up with a 64gb one soon.

Source for the 60% number? Not that I doubt it, but you have to cite this stuff.
 

Petrae

Member
Generational fatigue doesn't explain the 3DS' awful sales. This is a console that should be in its prime. And unlike the Vita and WiiU, it's been getting a steady diet of quality software this year.

I do think 3DS hits another gear with Animal Crossing for June, and then potentially takes off with Pokemon in September since it's 3DS only.

Having said that, 3DS is competing a bit with the mobile sector. People already have the hardware in many cases, the games are far cheaper in most cases, and while the core believes these aren't really games, many others disagree. The arrival of Android controllers and the expectation of iOS controllers later this year further bridge the gap between dedicated handhelds and mobile devices, requiring only a $50 upgrade for a mobile controller versus a $170 charge for a 3DS (and significantly more for a Vita).

Mobile and handheld can and will coexist, but handhelds in the US will never again reach the position of dominance that they've seen in generations past.
 
Sure no one's buying the vita, but the attach rate for those who do seems to be pretty good. Also whatever software numbers you see for retail bear in mind that digital sales are 60% of total sales. Which makes sense being a portable and all. I know I've bought 1 retail title and more than 20 digital (full priced releases too). Sony really need to drop the price of the memory sticks and come up with a 64gb one soon.

60% figure is almost certainly for all software, not solely retail titles. I'd be surprised if the paid download:retail ratio for any retail title were even half that.
 
the common trend with most of my co-workers that have kids is to hand them down the old cell phone once mom and dad upgrade to use as a gaming device. Many of them specifically site that that it saves them the $200 of buying a new DS/PSP and the games are all free. This is a real threat. Nintendo will always have a piece of the pie, but that pie is smaller than before.
 

RM8

Member
Since it's obvious 3DS will never sell DS-like numbers, I think it's pretty nice that it can consistently put games in the top 10 and keep them over there. I'd say it's a healthy platform even if obviously not a revolution like the DS.
 

Striek

Member
Theres some excuses for home consoles...too expensive, too old, new ones just on the horizon but still the severity of the recent decline of the HD twins and the non-start of the Wii U are almost certainly unexpected events. I do not think one person in the industry would've thought this year would be turning out like this.

Then theres the portables which don't seem to have that excuse. They're a little bit more expensive I guess? They're certainly not new any more. The PSP alone was almost twice as big 7 years ago than todays 3DS+Vita market in America, now imagine the DS.

Obviously you have to contrast the decline in traditional console markets against the rise of mobile, social etc. But it seems to me that for a lot of gaf those segments don't really factor into the equation, so for all intents and purposes its just a pure decline in content those people like and they don't know whether or not it'll reverse course.
 

Bog

Junior Ace
IDK about that. Pikmin is niche, WW is a remake, Wonderful 101 is a new IP and DKCRTF is a 2d platformer. Supermario should push a few consoles though.

Based on the line at the nearby BB, DKCR isn't "just a 2D platformer". Everyone was picking it over Mario, Zelda and Mario Kart.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Source for the 60% number? Not that I doubt it, but you have to cite this stuff.

He said it at E3: http://www.gamespot.com/e3/60-percent-of-all-ps-vita-purchases-made-digitally-6409663/

That said 60% with relatively low numbers isn't a huge success by any means, but yeah it is slightly less terrible than it seems.

That said, they're obviously not selling 60% of their hardware digitally, so it seems to be a device primarily selling games to the people who already bought it.

Edit: And yes this would include DD only titles.
 

Petrae

Member
Hardly shocking, but I was at a big cookout last weekend and I noticed a group of 8-10 year olds playing video games at a table. Every one of them was on an iOS device playing Minecraft. I instantly recognized the sound effects.

I don't see how Nintendo can compete in this environment when the kids are passing them by.

I saw similar stuff during travel back and forth to Los Angeles for E3 last week. So many kids with tablets and smart devices, while 3DS and Vita devices were only spotted at E3-related events on adults.

It's a different time, and more devices can play video games now aside from hardware that Sony and Nintendo sell.
 

A Human Becoming

More than a Member
Yes, but all products have a life span. Xbox and PS3 have been on the market for over 7 years for a combined total of about ~150 million sales. It's ~250 million sales if you count the dying Wii. The market is only so big and will only start significant expansion again, if it does at all, when the new products hit the market.

If after two years the PS4, Xbone, and Wii U are selling like hardware currently is, then there will be cause for concern.
I don't disagree with anything you said. You won't see me predicting an industry crash or the Xbone and PS4 booming. A lot has changed since the three systems were released. I don't have the foresight to predict the future. I'm just saying any relevant data shouldn't be ignored. It all means something. :p
I feel the 3DS's decline is driven by convergence devices.

The casual audience really doesn't need a 3DS when they have a smartphone or a tablet.

That primarily leaves the children's market, Nintendo enthusiasts, and gamers who play niche Japanese titles.

While the last two categories are safe, it is possible to serve the children's market on a smartphone/tablet too, so there is some impact until they get a very strong line-up of games for the 6-11 crowd and then have a holiday where parents actually buy the system for their kids.
hit-the-nail-on-the-head.jpg
 
Since it's obvious 3DS will never sell DS-like numbers, I think it's pretty nice that it can consistently put games in the top 10 and keep them over there. I'd say it's a healthy platform even if obviously not a revolution like the DS.

Its unreasonable to think hardware sales each gen will constantly increase. It will go down and up and down, maybe more down, then up
 

Duxxy3

Member
Generational fatigue doesn't explain the 3DS' awful sales. This is a console that should be in its prime. And unlike the Vita and WiiU, it's been getting a steady diet of quality software this year.

Sales of the 3DS are flat because the price sucks. Nintendo probably isn't going to drop the price until next year, after Pokemon sells a shit load of systems. They are giving up sales during the slow months for larger profits in the fall.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Since it's obvious 3DS will never sell DS-like numbers, I think it's pretty nice that it can consistently put games in the top 10 and keep them over there. I'd say it's a healthy platform even if obviously not a revolution like the DS.
Its unreasonable to think hardware sales each gen will constantly increase. It will go down and up and down, maybe more down, then up

The system I like to compare the 3DS to the most is the GBA.

I feel the core difference between the GBA and the NDS was that the NDS eventually captured a large-scale casual audience.

If the 3DS returns to GBA sales, that would still be a solid overall performance to me, since it would imply they didn't lose the audiences that the GBA had.
 
Sly Cooper actually did okay on the Vita - hopefully Sanzaru gets another crack at it for PS4.
With that logic then PS4 and Xbone will flop against the PS3/360 forever too? Like I said its the software that matters most, price comes after, I think this year end's software is enough to push the system without a price drop.
The consumer that is looking for a high end $400+ device to replace their PS3 or 360 is not looking to buy a PS3 or 360.

It's quite apparent they're not looking to buy a Wii U either.

The hardware sales and software sales are highly indicative of such.

Face the reality that the Wii U is not a high end device, that it does not appeal to new generational early adopters and that it must be price competitive with the PS3 and 360, it's competition for late generation adopters looking for a cheap HD console.
 

A Human Becoming

More than a Member
He had Luigi's Mansion at 97 though DCKR is higher up in the charts.
Sorry, I'm not understanding your train of thought.

EDIT: I see now:
Nintendo said:
Donkey Kong Country Returns 3D at No. 2 and Luigi’s Mansion: Dark Moon at No. 3.
Were there bundles? The Wii and 3DS game are different SKUs, creamsugar wouldn't add them together.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
The consumer that is looking for a high end $400+ device to replace their PS3 or 360 is not looking to buy a PS3 or 360.

Right I feel the consumer buying a PS4/XBO is largely the same consumer who bought a PS3/360 back in 2005-2008 and pushed the 360 to ridiculously high software attach rates early in its life.

This is why so many publishers are piling on with cross-gen games. They want their products to be available to the people who are going to go out and buy 4+ games for their new console as soon as they get it.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Sorry, I'm not understanding your train of thought.

EDIT: I see now:

Were there bundles? The Wii and 3DS game are different SKUs, creamsugar wouldn't add them together.

Donkey Kong has a Wii SKU so some people might have saw the ads and went out and bought that.

It could push Donkey Kong over Luigi's Mansion as a whole, but leave Donkey Kong Land 3DS below it.

There were also some bundles, but I'm not sure if they were in the US: http://www.nintendo.com/whatsnew/detail/boxk6uSmm2CazhhvvNj5O560025V4lhe
 

A Human Becoming

More than a Member
Look at the position of Donkey Kong Country Returns in the OP. It also counts the Wii SKU. It isn't solely looking at DKCR3D. If DKCR3D sold 90K, it would imply that DKCR sold 7K+.

Donkey Kong has a Wii SKU so some people might have saw the ads and went out and bought that.

It could push Donkey Kong over Luigi's Mansion as a whole, but leave Donkey Kong Land 3DS below it.

There were also some bundles: http://www.nintendo.com/whatsnew/detail/boxk6uSmm2CazhhvvNj5O560025V4lhe
But it says specifically Donkey Kong Country Returns 3D. Why would they add the Wii one in if it's not called Donkey Kong Country Returns 3D? I think more likely those numbers given are slightly off, as creamsugar said before.
 
Here's an interesting theory I've been thinking about.

The 3DS needs to develop SUCH huge value and so many resources and titles are being dedicated to it in order to prove/buoy in the face of the impeding smartphone/tablet/mobile market that it has crippled the initial WiiU output for the first 7 months of existence
 

AniHawk

Member
Right I feel the consumer buying a PS4/XBO is largely the same consumer who bought a PS3/360 back in 2005-2008 and pushed the 360 to ridiculously high software attach rates early in its life.

This is why so many publishers are piling on with cross-gen games. They want their products to be available to the people who are going to go out and buy 4+ games for their new console as soon as they get it.

if the hardcore 360 group is the one that buys the ps4/xbo early on, early sales won't be pretty. i wonder if the hesitance to upgrade would lead microsoft and sony to finally drop the price of their legacy consoles to affordable levels.
 

AniHawk

Member
Here's an interesting theory I've been thinking about.

The 3DS needs to develop SUCH huge value and so many resources and titles are being dedicated to it in order to prove/buoy in the face of the impeding smartphone/tablet/mobile market that it has crippled the initial WiiU output for the first 7 months of existence

i think there simply wasn't enough ready in the first couple months for the wii u, and nintendo thought back in december of last year it would be better to push everything back so they could build some sort of momentum. no one is going to buy a system for game & wario, but by the time dkctf comes out, game & wario might be a nice purchase alongside your new dkc game and sonic game.
 

Kai Dracon

Writing a dinosaur space opera symphony
The 360 has a flash memory version. How far can Sony drop the price of the PS3 due to a few required components like a hard drive?
 

Tobor

Member
Here's an interesting theory I've been thinking about.

The 3DS needs to develop SUCH huge value and so many resources and titles are being dedicated to it in order to prove/buoy in the face of the impeding smartphone/tablet/mobile market that it has crippled the initial WiiU output for the first 7 months of existence

I think Nintendo developers are simply better at making 3DS games. It's not in HD, after all.
 
Right I feel the consumer buying a PS4/XBO is largely the same consumer who bought a PS3/360 back in 2005-2008 and pushed the 360 to ridiculously high software attach rates early in its life.

This is why so many publishers are piling on with cross-gen games. They want their products to be available to the people who are going to go out and buy 4+ games for their new console as soon as they get it.
Exactly. Demographics exist. Adoption curves exist.

For the 220K people who bought 360 in May 2006 at $299/$399, the $129 PS2 likely wasn't a consideration - they in all likelihood had owned one of those for years. While the converse is the case for the 230K people who bought a PS2 that month.

c.f. the 30K or so people buying a $350 Wii U in May 2013. I would be surprised if the $279 PS3 or $199/$299 360 didn't factor into the equation, and quite likely won out given the sales of each of the latter are triple the Wii U's.
 
Sly Cooper actually did okay on the Vita - hopefully Sanzaru gets another crack at it for PS4.

The consumer that is looking for a high end $400+ device to replace their PS3 or 360 is not looking to buy a PS3 or 360.

It's quite apparent they're not looking to buy a Wii U either.

The hardware sales and software sales are highly indicative of such.

Face the reality that the Wii U is not a high end device, that it does not appeal to new generational early adopters and that it must be price competitive with the PS3 and 360, it's competition for late generation adopters looking for a cheap HD console.
Early adopters aren't going to buy a system when the the games aren't even out yet, please remember the system isn't even a year old yet, most importantly the majority of the first year's lineup isn't even out.
 
Vita < 16k
Vita + PSP < 20k
DKCR3D < 3DS HW

They just have to cancel this thing- I live in a big metropolis and still haven't seen one out in the wild and I saw a lot of PSPs back in the day. Remote play won't (and shouldn't) move Vita units. There are probably 5 people in the US who would be compelled to buy a Vita by Remote Play.

Stick a fork in the Vita, its done. It's moving approximately 50k a month between Japan and the US which is abysmal. It just needs to be a sunk cost- time to move on.
 

mozfan12

Banned
I'm actually quite surprised at how successful Donkey Country Returns has been. Yesterday on Radio Free Nintendo I heard that the Wii version had sold 5 million (worldwide). Happy thats it's doing well on the 3DS as well. Guess it's not too surprising that there was a sequel.
 
They just have to cancel this thing- I live in a big metropolis and still haven't seen one out in the wild and I saw a lot of PSPs back in the day. Remote play won't (and shouldn't) move Vita units. There are probably 5 people in the US who would be compelled to buy a Vita by Remote Play.

Stick a fork in the Vita, its done. It's moving approximately 50k a month between Japan and the US which is abysmal. It just needs to be a sunk cost- time to move on.
As long as its making a profit, they won't cancel it.
 
Shitty excel graphs.

Top is LTD launch aligned, bottom is weekly sales rate.*
X1QvNW6.png


For reference in June 2006 the 360 sold 277K or 55.4K/week for a LTD of 2M. In June 2007 the PS3 sold 98.5K or 19.7K/week for a LTD of 1.45M.

*I've just used 35K for Wii U, as it's likely a close enough approximation.
 
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