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NPD Sales Results For October 2016

I'm intrigued to see the Gears of War numbers overall. I think digital downloads (across both XBO and PC) and bundles will see the game perform better than many believe.

It won't be Gears of War 3, but then Halo 4 wasn't Halo 3 either.
 
The 3DS is doing so much better than I expected it would given how few new games it gets. New 3DS is a great system though, and I'm picking up the smaller version on BF. I highly recommend it, and the 3D effect remains dope and one of a kind. There is potentially SO much more money to be made with 3DS, especially with it's amiibo capabilties, 3D, and dirt cheap price ($99 on BF). I'm sure Nintendo will find a way to mess it up, but I see no reason the system can't continue for years to come.

For instance, why hasn't there been any attempt to convert ANY full length 3D feature films for 3DS and sell them on the eShop? If memory serves me correctly, the demo units at launch had clips of the latest Dreamworks 3D animated movie (I forget which one). Even if it was a Pokemon movie, just put it on there and see how well it sells! ey yei yei
 

SURGEdude

Member
The 3DS is doing so much better than I expected it would given how few new games it gets. New 3DS is a great system though, and I'm picking up the smaller version on BF. I highly recommend it, and the 3D effect remains dope and one of a kind. There is potentially SO much more money to be made with 3DS, especially with it's amiibo capabilties, 3D, and dirt cheap price ($99 on BF). I'm sure Nintendo will find a way to mess it up, but I see no reason the system can't continue for years to come.

For instance, why hasn't there been any attempt to convert ANY full length 3D feature films for 3DS and sell them on the eShop? If memory serves me correctly, the demo units at launch had clips of the latest Dreamworks 3D animated movie (I forget which one). Even if it was a Pokemon movie, just put it on there and see how well it sells! ey yei yei

I could see some animated titles doing ok. Especially if they can figure a way to bundle them with a regular non 3d version that can be watched on people's other devices. But either way I think the ship has sailed and Ninty has moved on from investing in 3d.
 
Very interested to see Gears and TF2 numbers. But I'd say they look to compare to U.K. results i.e. Poor.

No TR. Well I guess SE had that coming. But that's been talked to death about.
 

Jumeira

Banned
Gears 4 seems to have performed well if it's in 3rd without digital + bundles. Best game in the franchise, well done Coalition.
 

Perfo

Thirteen flew over the cuckoo's nest
Ehm woff didn't even chart? I really hope the game costed square really little. Which is probably the case anyway.
 

Trup1aya

Member
They did for halo 5 and are not above putting out pr spin considering they are gloating about npd victories the past few months. If you want to believe it sold well, that is fine but I am just pointing out that they have been quiet regarding its performance and it is unusual for a huge first party release.

Not since what, Quantum Break?


MS never released halo 5 sales... we had a 343 rep post a rough sold-in number in a forum.

MS gave some convoluted PR statements after QB and Halo 5 released, that really didn't give anyone an idea of how well the games actually sold.

I'm not saying gears "sold well" I'm sure it's tracking under series highs, just like all MS first parties have been. Still, given where Gears has charted and the assumed digital split, I think it's doing decently in these market conditions.
 
I seems that Nintendo's strategy to raise awareness for other Nintendo products (hardware games) with simple mobile games is working.

I think even the NES Mini contributed to the 3DS sales. If Wii U would not be such a dead console and even hard to find in retail (I've heard recently how a salesman advised a customer not to buy the WiiU and wait for switch next year) this unfortunate console would benefit too.

Switch could be big next year because several factors are at play that support this thing.
 
PSVR sales were that bad, huh? Not a single mention of them.

Unless PSVR sales are go up like crazy at the holidays the support for this device will die faster than for Move controllers. The even more tiny user base that owns PS4 Pro and PSVR and hopes for support will be be very disappointed if support dies this fast.
 

viHuGi

Banned
Unless PSVR sales are go up like crazy at the holidays the support for this device will die faster than for Move controllers. The even more tiny user base that owns PS4 Pro and PSVR and hopes for support will be be very disappointed if support dies this fast.

LOL okay man ok.
 
Quote wall coming...

good to see that the 3DS is still solid.

I seems that Nintendo's strategy to raise awareness for other Nintendo products (hardware games) with simple mobile games is working.

Switch could be big next year because several factors are at play that support this thing.

Personally, I've been very impressed with the 3DS in recent months. I was doubtful that Pokemon Go would make a big difference on sales of the mainline products. In hindsight, that was very foolish of me. Of course a portion of the people playing Go would be interested in the mainline games. And pricing for the 3DS hasn't moved at all, so it's purely base demand improving. And I agree, this does have positive implications for the Switch, which I'm somewhat bullish on.

PSVR sales were that bad, huh? Not a single mention of them.

By all accounts, PSVR launch bundles appear to have sold out nationwide quite quickly. I think it's too early to assume anything about these sales given that supply may be having an impact. Get to January, then I'm sure the market will have a good read on it.

Unless PSVR sales are go up like crazy at the holidays the support for this device will die faster than for Move controllers. The even more tiny user base that owns PS4 Pro and PSVR and hopes for support will be be very disappointed if support dies this fast.

It's a risk, certainly. But I'm seeing far more development resources going towards VR than I ever saw for something like motion gaming. Again, a little early to be making this call. And if you watch this video from EEDAR's presentation at VRDC (disclaimer: EEDAR is an NPD company), you may get the sense that this is just the beginning. Now whether it's the beginning of the Next Big Thing or the beginning of the End, I don't know lol.

And what year will digital sales on average sell more than physical?

Ask me again after the new administration takes over and we get a better idea on what's going to happen with net neutrality, data caps, etc. Internet infrastructure and policies may limit how big and how quickly digital will be the majority of sales, especially as games reach 100GB.

Don't know if I can agree with that. I'm not well versed in business, but, if you are going to measure the "health" of any industry margins are heck lot more important than gross revenue generated.

With units as a data point at least us members could guessimate with in reason the other things when it came to the cost making the game.

Well sure, I completely agree that contribution margin would be the better metric, but the only options available to report on sales data are revenues and units. And revenues is better because the value of a dollar doesn't change (yes, I know currency does fluctuate, but work with me here), while the value of a unit certainly does. Would be far too easy to manipulate the charts digitally. Sell your game for 1 day at $1 on STEAM or PSN or XBL and all of a sudden your game that was selling 100,000 at $27 ASP a month is now selling 1,040,000 at $2 ASP.

I don't know... bundle is too expensive.

It was limited and sold out though, hasn't it? It drove fantastic revenues.

Drive down costs and raise prices
Retailers had a good run with games. We had a good run with games.
Let flame of fuckery burn bright!

Brother, I don't know what you're saying, but I like the passion.

Nice to have an NPD analyst posting.

The analysis from Mat is great to read.

Wow thank you. Always great to read everyone's insights, better to get to chat directly.
 
That's what i thought. Which makes the data posted by NPD misleading because there's no note of it not including PC digital sales for BF1 and TF2.

You know what, you're absolutely right.

We'll get this fixed in the release for next month and make the PC coverage more clear.

Thanks for calling that out.

EDIT: And confirmed. This change will be in place for the November release.
 
Quote wall coming...

(...)

Wow thank you. Always great to read everyone's insights, better to get to chat directly.

Nice reading you. Appreciate the time and effort.


I find really interesting that FIFA performs better than NFL, NHL and NBA games, which from here (Europe) look like the big player sport wise in USA
 

leeh

Member
Would love to see Gears sales with digital.
Its a shame to see the platform holders not contributing to NPD with their digital numbers considering they're so invested in it and pretty much always release press statements based on them.
 

Duxxy3

Member
I bought two copies of Gears 4 (one for myself, one for my brother). Both were digital because of play anywhere.

Would love to see digital numbers for that one.
 

cakely

Member
PSVR sales were that bad, huh? Not a single mention of them.

PSVR sales are tracked under accessories.

Unless PSVR sales are go up like crazy at the holidays the support for this device will die faster than for Move controllers. The even more tiny user base that owns PS4 Pro and PSVR and hopes for support will be be very disappointed if support dies this fast.

No. Seriously, just no. Where are you getting this? The only info we have is that PSVR sold 50k units in Japan at launch, and that Sony says PSVR sales are "on track".
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
It's a risk, certainly. But I'm seeing far more development resources going towards VR than I ever saw for something like motion gaming. Again, a little early to be making this call. And if you watch this video from EEDAR's presentation at VRDC (disclaimer: EEDAR is an NPD company), you may get the sense that this is just the beginning. Now whether it's the beginning of the Next Big Thing or the beginning of the End, I don't know lol.

Out of curiosity, do you feel the amount of content being generated for VR is more due to the amount of developer and venture capitalist interest in the medium, or more based on solid demand indicators from consumers?

I can't help but notice that a lot of the studios that are working in VR are studios that had fallen on hard times or had trouble competing in the current industry, and then are funded by what appear to be outside investors or new entrants into the industry like Lionsgate and Oculus. There's also a pretty strong overlap with studios that jumped into mobile, social, and/or motion gaming, but didn't find much success, and had to go somewhere else once the money faucet for that started drying up.

It just feels like there's a ton of content being generated with anyone and everyone without a major concern for getting the right studio on the right project for major success, which is the kind of response I would expect if there was a lot of speculation on the medium taking off like a rocket and raising all boats. The actual major publishers on the other hand seem much more cautious.

I could certainly be reading the situation incorrectly though, which is why I'm rather curious what you think, since I imagine NPD has done way more research into this than I have.
 
Out of curiosity, do you feel the amount of content being generated for VR is more due to the amount of developer and venture capitalist interest in the medium, or more based on solid demand indicators from consumers?

My personal take is that it's the former at the moment. There's intense interest in developing the medium from the creative side. On the business side, I don't think the story hasn't been written yet. Definitely more push than pull.

As for your other points, I'd tend to agree with you (again, personal opinion, I'm certainly not an expert in the VR market or field). Regarding that expertise, I look at EEDAR and Patrick as leading in this area.
 
Surprised to see Mafia 3 at #2, it really did sell very well it seems. Glad to hear it for 2K, hopefully they let the team do a bit more polish for the next game and it could do even better. Game would have gone from a 6/10 to a 9/10 I think with six more months of just polish.

Weird that Madden is basically off the charts almost, guess its been out a while but I thought that kind of game was popular for a while. Be interesting to see Nov with FF15, COD, and Dishonored 2 all duking it out alongside the steep discounts and good word of mouth on Titanfall 2.
 
Gears 4 being that high not counting digital is good, right? Specially when it's also a play anywhere game, which I assume skews the balance a bit higher than the regular 30% other games might see.
 
RIP - Rise of the Tomb Raider PS4.

I did think maybe the brand strength would save a year late, full price port but obviously not. Damn shame for the series as this was an excellent game.

No need to be sorry - they wanted that Microsoft money so now they have to deal with consequences.

Hopefully this will be lesson to all the publishers before reaching for that "easy" cash.
 
Hey Matt, really appreciate all the responses to everyone. Are you able to expand on what I asked a couple pages back if you have time? Appreciate any insight!

"What I want to know is, how does anyone know this: "Play early, digital bundles are all working very well. Raising digital shares and average pricing compared to physical. You're going to see much more of these tactics in the future." when Microsoft isn't sharing their digital data? Aren't they the only one to have done this with Gears 4 and Horizon 3? Or did NBA do it?"
 
Gears 4 being that high not counting digital is good, right? Specially when it's also a play anywhere game, which I assume skews the balance a bit higher than the regular 30% other games might see.

Not necessarily. Chart postition can be very misleading. Heck even third place is a poor placing for the franchise used to topping it. The success of how well Gears did will simply come down to how far it fell from previous entries. I mean sure, it'll have sold in its hundreds of thousands but that is still not great for a franchise used to selling millions. And it had the majority of the month on sale. It it's closer to Judgment sales than the mainline ones then it's most definitely a big fail. And MS have been deadly silent on any PR of the game. Like even if they want to spin it with digital/bundles/t-shirts revenue or whatever they didn't. Which I think is massively telling also.

No need to be sorry - they wanted that Microsoft money so now they have to deal with consequences.

Hopefully this will be lesson to all the publishers before reaching for that "easy" cash.

Again we see a late, full price port not succeed. A few had hope but historically few if any move the needle the second time around.
 
Hey Matt, really appreciate all the responses to everyone. Are you able to expand on what I asked a couple pages back if you have time? Appreciate any insight!

"What I want to know is, how does anyone know this: "Play early, digital bundles are all working very well. Raising digital shares and average pricing compared to physical. You're going to see much more of these tactics in the future." when Microsoft isn't sharing their digital data? Aren't they the only one to have done this with Gears 4 and Horizon 3? Or did NBA do it?"

Perhaps the phrase "Play early, digital bundles are all working very well." needed a "the data suggests to me that" at the front of it. Certainly impossible to "know" this as fact.

However, there are more titles that featured digital bundling (think beyond play anywhere, think about packaging with season passes digitally, etc) and more titles that allowed for early access than just MS titles. Obviously, I can't get into the by title detail, but that's what I'm seeing. I could be wrong.
 

Horns

Member
It's so weird to not see GTA V on the list. I expect it will return once the new holiday releases slow down.
 

blakep267

Member
Not necessarily. Chart postition can be very misleading. Heck even third place is a poor placing for the franchise used to topping it. The success of how well Gears did will simply come down to how far it fell from previous entries. I mean sure, it'll have sold in its hundreds of thousands but that is still not great for a franchise used to selling millions. And it had the majority of the month on sale. It it's closer to Judgment sales than the mainline ones then it's most definitely a big fail. And MS have been deadly silent on any PR of the game. Like even if they want to spin it with digital/bundles/t-shirts revenue or whatever they didn't. Which I think is massively telling also.



Again we see a late, full price port not succeed. A few had hope but historically few if any move the needle the second time around.
I don't think that's the best way of reasoning. MS doesn't give out sales figures. When they do stupid PR spin about revenue people get up in arms and mock them. When they don't do it, something must be terribly wrong with a franchise.
 

itshutton

Member
Surely with Tomb Raider failing in both launch windows, we can't expect SE to have Crystal Dynamics and Eidos Montreal working on sequels???
 
How is PC software comparison made to last year when the digital tracking only started this year? I mean in september Physical and Steam PC software were up 2% yoy and now suddenly they are up 172% yoy compared to last october. Civilization VI having that big effect?
 
A 8% increase for XB1 HW over last year is slightly less then I was expecting. It's still doing fairly well for itself but given how poor the PS4 has been doing the past few months, the console HW market as a whole doesn't seem that much improved over last year.

That's not really something I was expecting. I think in the past three months, the two consoles have only outsold last year by something like ~50k. I was expecting more from this year, even in the smaller months. Sony really dropped the ball with how unaggressive they were in matching the XB1. I do wonder how many sales got shifted to the holidays again.
 

Fafalada

Fafracer forever
Nirolak said:
Out of curiosity, do you feel the amount of content being generated for VR is more due to the amount of developer and venture capitalist interest in the medium, or more based on solid demand indicators from consumers?
Both play a part IME so far, although consumer interest only started playing a role this year, there was a lot of momentum before it already.

The actual major publishers on the other hand seem much more cautious.
Major publisher response has been consistent with other new trends in the past 15 years, most of them are comfortable to take their time and even miss the early trains rather than take chances.
And to be fair - it's hard to say with any certainty that VR will be a viable mainstream market in mid/near term, which is what it would take for those companies to be motivated to participate in it.
 

Welfare

Member
A 8% increase for XB1 HW over last year is slightly less then I was expecting. It's still doing fairly well for itself but given how poor the PS4 has been doing the past few months, the console HW market as a whole doesn't seem that much improved over last year.

That's not really something I was expecting. I think in the past three months, the two consoles have only outsold last year by something like ~50k. I was expecting more from this year, even in the smaller months. Sony really dropped the ball with how unaggressive they were in matching the XB1. I do wonder how many sales got shifted to the holidays again.

Remember that last year was Halo month. +8% YoY means that momentum for the XB1S has improved significantly from September. September weekly average was 66,560 and using ~327k for October the weekly average is ~81,750. That is a 23% improvement and almost matches Septembers total month sales.
 
Remember that last year was Halo month. +8% YoY means that momentum for the XB1S has improved significantly from September. September weekly average was 66,560 and using ~327k for October the weekly average is ~81,750. That is a 23% improvement and almost matches Septembers total month sales.

Yea, I remember that but the Halo month had pretty poor sales for that sorta launch (as we found out, due to loads being in November).

Still a solid showing for XB1, it's mainly PS4 that's not doing well.
 
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