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[Welfare]

Honestly I think it's more of Sony prioritizing niche hardware (VR, Pro) and profit over "biggest HW sales ever on Black Friday".

Sony's margins on PS4 are probably higher if they have third party $299 bundles in December to then be main bundles for 2017 instead of third party $299 bundles a couple of weeks before Black Friday where they will be $249 plus other deals.

Also I think Sony were not expecting this kind of performance from Xbox. November 2015 to May 2016 you could easily say there was no way Xbox could possibly have any chance of a potential comeback. Sony probably had all this planned out before the XB1S release and couldn't change anything dramatically after the fact.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

The only way the profit based strategy makes sense to me is if the PS4 is doing better WW (even a small bit) to offset the decrease in US numbers.

Otherwise, the strategy employed by Sony regarding the base PS4 and the strategy last year is a night and day difference.

Last year the pretty much went for the jugular coming off a year of consistently beating the XB1. This year seems more of a repeat of 2014 but with XB1 doing way better then XB1 usually does and winning months.

The discrepancy in strategy is odd to me unless the WW numbers are doing better but I don't think thats the case either (likely the same).

Missed opportunities all in all.

Even if the numbers are the same Sony most likely making more profit of the hardware .
The slim and the Pro .

Also I think Sony were not expecting this kind of performance from Xbox. November 2015 to May 2016 you could easily say there was no way Xbox could possibly have any chance of a potential comeback. Sony probably had all this planned out before the XB1S release and couldn't change anything dramatically after the fact.

I don't really see XBS1 performance making Sony want to chnage anything at least right now.
Yes XB1 selling better than before thanks to certain factors but we are not talking any big numbers .

 

[Nightengale]

I disagree on their inability to change quickly since 2014 had them immediately reacting to AssCreed bundle massive win with a stupid PR release and suddenly releasing the one free game of choice bundle almost immediately to reduce the value gap with their base 399 console.

Also, even if bundles plan are locked in, there are plenty of ways to reduce the gap without needing to commit new SKUs. I would argue that simply adding Uncharted Collection or R&C to their current UC4 bundle alone would increase perception of value of their console.

 

[sense]

The only way the profit based strategy makes sense to me is if the PS4 is doing better WW (even a small bit) to offset the decrease in US numbers.

Otherwise, the strategy employed by Sony regarding the base PS4 and the strategy last year is a night and day difference.

Last year the pretty much went for the jugular coming off a year of consistently beating the XB1. This year seems more of a repeat of 2014 but with XB1 doing way better then XB1 usually does and winning months.

The discrepancy in strategy is odd to me unless the WW numbers are doing better but I don't think thats the case either (likely the same).

Missed opportunities all in all.

Japan alone outsets the difference so not sure why there is any doubt as to if Sony is doing great outside us/uk where the difference isn't really huge.

 

[Norse]

I think xbone is selling well in large part to its new look. I think people just rather have it as it looks so damn good. Of course the 4k UHD player and games help too.

 

[Primethius]

And is that really unlikely? I'm trying to figure out why this being made out to be a big deal when we already know what the PS4 does WW.

It's not unlikely but it's a huge unknown. It is something that could explain the strategy discrepancy but it's a safer assumption to hold that PS4 is doing the same as it was last year WW (that is, unlike NA, it's not down).

Also, this post pretty much spells out my thoughts and what I belive to be the likely scenario:

Honestly I think it's more of Sony prioritizing niche hardware (VR, Pro) and profit over "biggest HW sales ever on Black Friday".

Sony's margins on PS4 are probably higher if they have third party $299 bundles in December to then be main bundles for 2017 instead of third party $299 bundles a couple of weeks before Black Friday where they will be $249 plus other deals.

Also I think Sony were not expecting this kind of performance from Xbox. November 2015 to May 2016 you could easily say there was no way Xbox could possibly have any chance of a potential comeback. Sony probably had all this planned out before the XB1S release and couldn't change anything dramatically after the fact.

It was either too late to change the plans or Sony misjudged the impact of the XB1S plus deals entirely.

I personally lean towards misjudging it but whether it's that or deals being locked in, the end result doesn't really change.

I only mention the WW scenario because it's a possibility, an unlikely one, that we may or may not see confirmed when the next WW sell-through numbers drop (and depending on how it does in the holidays in NA).

Japan alone outsets the difference so not sure why there is any doubt as to if Sony is doing great outside us/uk where the difference isn't really huge.

I haven't been paying attention to Media Create recently. Is PS4 up over last year? I thought it was doing mostly the same as last.

 

[Iced Arcade]

I think the PS4 will grab Nov just due to COD advertising.


Visuallying the Xbox One S looks premium and the PS4 slim and pro... well they look not so premium. The one S is a sexy thing

 

[gundamkyoukai]

I haven't been paying attention to Media Create recently. Is PS4 up over last year? I thought it was doing mostly the same as last.

It's up over last year by 210k with one of the biggest month and games still to come .

 

[DriftingSpirit]

Also I think Sony were not expecting this kind of performance from Xbox. November 2015 to May 2016 you could easily say there was no way Xbox could possibly have any chance of a potential comeback. Sony probably had all this planned out before the XB1S release and couldn't change anything dramatically after the fact.

If it was all planned out before, the performance of XB1S wouldn't have mattered either way. Nothing has changed with MS' surge the last few months.

It's up over last year by 210k with one of the biggest month and games still to come .

This being the latest week -

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1315464

 

[Welfare]

I disagree on their inability to change quickly since 2014 had them immediately reacting to AssCreed bundle massive win with a stupid PR release and suddenly releasing the one free game of choice bundle almost immediately to reduce the value gap with their base 399 console.

Also, even if bundles plan are locked in, there are plenty of ways to reduce the gap without needing to commit new SKUs. I would argue that simply adding Uncharted Collection or R&C to their current UC4 bundle alone would increase perception of value of their console.

A free game deal is probably easier to get out very quickly than moving around the release dates of third party bundles.

Also you have to ask yourself, do R&C or Uncharted Collection add any value to the consumers buying consoles in the holidays? Why not add in Street Fighter V, No Man's Sky, World of FF, DQ Builders, random niche game #33? Those games already have close to 0 value to the price sensitive buyer, so adding them to an already low appealing bundle like the UC4 bundle is basically net zero gain. Sony would need to bundle a big game like CoD or Watch Dogs to gain units and they presumably are going to do that in December.

Bundles with AAA games > Free game deals >> random small pack in games during the holidays.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

It's not unlikely but it's a huge unknown. It is something that could explain the strategy discrepancy but it's a safer assumption to hold that PS4 is doing the same as it was last year WW (that is, unlike NA, it's not down).

Also, this post pretty much spells out my thoughts and what I belive to be the likely scenario:



It was either too late to change the plans or Sony misjudged the impact of the XB1S plus deals entirely.

I personally lean towards misjudging it but whether it's that or deals being locked in, the end result doesn't really change.

I only mention the WW scenario because it's a possibility, an unlikely one, that we may or may not see confirmed when the next WW sell-through numbers drop (and depending on how it does in the holidays in NA).



I haven't been paying attention to Media Create recently. Is PS4 up over last year? I thought it was doing mostly the same as last.

Which is it?

If that info is still accurate, the US makes up roughly 36% of PS4's total sales. That says all that really needs to be said. This isn't a big deal.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1315464

 

[Liabe Brave]

I would say the PS4 is doing poorly, and when you consider it's market leader, it looks even worse. It was up the first few months, fell and never really recovered. And while last year showers the holidays are MASSIVE, I'm not convinced they are big enough to offset the sales loss in the smaller months.

But even if that's true, it wouldn't really be concerning. The vast majority of consoles peak in their second full year. The only exceptions I know are Microsoft: original Xbox peaked in year 3, and 360 kept growing every year through year 6 (!!!).

EDIT: I take this back. Looking more closely at the PS3, it also grew until year 5! No wonder last gen lasted so long, the arc was rising until 2011! (Seriously, I'm kind of shocked. I knew the 360 had a long tail, but I thought it was due to Kinect. That helped, but clearly more was going on. Interesting....) So yeah, PS4 being down wouldn't be unusual--most consoles still follow this trajectory--but better scenarios aren't unrealistic targets.

November 2015 to May 2016 you could easily say there was no way Xbox could possibly have any chance of a potential comeback.

Could we really say they do now, though? To set themselves up to surpass PS4 before the next gen launches, they'd really need to win this holiday by big, 2014-esque margins. I'm not convinced that's actually attainable.

 

[BillyJack]

I think xbone is selling well in large part to its new look. I think people just rather have it as it looks so damn good. Of course the 4k UHD player and games help too.

This is ridiculous

 

[Elios83]

I'm not exactly sure what's happening here.
We don't even have the October hardware numbers and some people are discussing as if Sony has lost November and December. LOL.
I'm also reading obviously wrong things like Sony not doing anything and this being a repeat of the 2014 situation. That is totally crazy considering that this year PS4 and Xbox One will have price matched deals at 249$ while in 2014 Sony had a GTAV bundle at 399$ while Microsoft was selling the Assassin's Creed bundle at 329$ + 30-40$gift cards pretty much everywhere. Not to mention that Sony didn't have the launch of a new hardware targeting core gamers and upgraders in 2014. How is this the same of 2014????
The only thing that could be criticized is that so far their only bundle is Uncharted 4 that is definetly a less attractive game for the masses compared to something like COD or Star Wars,etc.
But having a bundle with a first party game clearly allows them to cut the price to 249$ and still be profitable. For Sony profits from the game division are really important, they will outsell Microsoft worldwide by millions this quarter while making lots of profits while Microsoft expects overall lower sales and profits.
Also I'd expect more bundles to be announced in December, we already know about the FFXV bundle for example, I think more will come, among with other deals that will probably prolong the 249$ price promotion.

 

[Welfare]

My Xbox comment is along the lines of Sony seeing no need to invest so heavily against it. After November 2015 they gained massive leads over the XB1 so going into 2016 there is no reason to focus on beating Xbox in the holidays. Sony is focusing more on itself now.

I'm not exactly sure what's happening here.
We don't even have the October hardware numbers...

Follow Astronaut Claire here and get DM'd this month's hardware sales. XB1+PS4 just don't go public until the 21st.

 

[Jon Carter]

If it was all planned out before, the performance of XB1S wouldn't have mattered either way. Nothing has changed with MS' surge the last few months.

This being the latest week -

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1315464

You should probably mention that the numbers are that high because it was the Pro launch. In regular weeks, it's a competition between it and the 3DS, despite coming out three years later. It's not doing nearly well enough in Japan to be given a pass for letting up their efforts in other markets.

It reminds me of the 3DS a little, that could (should) have done better in the West earlier on, if it weren't for Nintendo being less aggressive and passing on some golden opportunities. The PS4 is definitely the king of the generation, but Sony could have handled things better after they had done everything so right at the beginning.

 

[Nightengale]

A free game deal is probably easier to get out very quickly than moving around the release dates of third party bundles.

Also you have to ask yourself, do R&C or Uncharted Collection add any value to the consumers buying consoles in the holidays? Why not add in Street Fighter V, No Man's Sky, World of FF, DQ Builders, random niche game #33? Those games already have close to 0 value to the price sensitive buyer, so adding them to an already low appealing bundle like the UC4 bundle is basically net zero gain. Sony would need to bundle a big game like CoD or Watch Dogs to gain units and they presumably are going to do that in December.

Bundles with AAA games > Free game deals >> random small pack in games during the holidays.

Of course it doesn't. Ultimately big deal bundles are hardware movers, which is why BlOPs3 bundle continued to do ridiculously well into the new year despite it not really offering any notably superb more value.

I'm saying that Sony has not done even any of any those random spikes or throwing rocks to the pond to spike higher interest in PS4 Slim. Even if they had to wait for the bundles in December, prior history suggest that there are plenty of temporary reactive moves that could be initiated to at least reduce or spike their console interest by a small amount before actually loading in the silver bullet.

What we're seeing with Sony right now is very much a GTAV/TLoU bundle situation all over again, where they've chosen to keep firm with their strategy of keeping their UC4 Slim + Pro strategy well into BF, and not have any salvos out till after then, instead of reacting immediately to the competitor-strategy.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

You should probably mention that the numbers are that high because it was the Pro launch. In regular weeks, it's a competition between it and the 3DS, despite coming out three years later. It's not doing nearly well enough in Japan to be given a pass for letting up their efforts in other markets.

It reminds me of the 3DS a little, that could (should) have done better in the West earlier on, if it weren't for Nintendo being less aggressive and passing on some golden opportunities. The PS4 is definitely the king of the generation, but Sony could have handled things better after they had done everything so right at the beginning.

That wasn't the point of the Media Create thread being linked. It was to demonstrate what is occurring outside of the US and how it isn't the end of the world. As stated above, the gaps in Japan alone more than make up some of the deficit in US and UK and the PS4 is up YoY in Japan. If we apply this to other WW territories, everything somewhat balances out. Sony can use this time to focus on profit, assuming that is their plan, and it won't make a difference when it is all said and done. This is the benefit of having the WW margins that they do.

The bold makes it seem as if Sony is giving up on millions upon millions or something. I just feel like it is okay to want more from Sony but some of you are making it seem like Sony has made a mistake that they'll never recover from lol.

 

[Jon Carter]

That wasn't the point of the Media Create thread being linked. It was to demonstrate what is occurring outside of the US and how it isn't the end of the world. As stated above, the gaps in Japan alone more than make up some of the deficit in US and UK and the PS4 is up YoY in Japan. If we apply this to other WW territories, everything somewhat balances out. Sony can use this time to focus on profit, assuming that is their plan, and it won't make a difference when it is all said and done. This is the benefit of having the WW margins that they do.

The bold makes it seem as if Sony is giving up on millions upon millions or something. I just feel like it is okay to want more from Sony but some of you are making it seem like Sony has made a mistake that they'll never recover from lol.

Personally, I think the PS4 isn't selling as well as a market leader should, and releasing three major pieces of hardware in two months instead of letting each of them breathe was really dumb. Obviously it's not the end of the world, but I still think it's worth pointing out when the market leader makes mistakes. They're losing sales and a bit of momentum for no apparent reason.

 

[ForkNetwork]

Im pretty sure the Xbox team already knows that beating the PS4 is impossible unless they carpet bomb Sony, so I guess they will just push for a healthy second place with a total sales figures that surpass the original Xbox (24 million) but not quite reach the Xbox 360 (80 something million).

 

[blakep267]

I think the PS4 will grab Nov just due to COD advertising.


Visuallying the Xbox One S looks premium and the PS4 slim and pro... well they look not so premium. The one S is a sexy thing

I doubt COD will be a factor. There is no associated bundle with the game. Also MS ran week long promotion for a free game while Sony only ran it for 2 days. So if you wanted to get COD at launch, you could've had either choice

 

[Nightengale]

Personally, I think the PS4 isn't selling as well as a market leader should, and releasing three major pieces of hardware in two months instead of letting each of them breathe was really dumb. Obviously it's not the end of the world, but I still think it's worth pointing out when the market leader makes mistakes. They're losing sales and a bit of momentum for no apparent reason.

Well, to be "fair" (lol), PSVR was originally meant for a 1H release, but got delayed to October, because you know... everything gets delayed these days. (probably the launch games weren't ready)

Between launching in 1H without sufficient launch games, October where it was crammed with Slim and Pro, and 2017 where it basically releases a year later than other mainstream VR devices even as it's currently not as advanced in some respects. (tracking fidelity)

October was really the best of the worst options they had. Obviously 1H with all games ready would had been better, but I could easily say the same for practically this generation of games as they all get delayed out of whatever best window they wanted for the product.

I'll agree on Slim and Pro though. Not executed as strongly as it could've been done.

 

[Primethius]

It's up over last year by 210k with one of the biggest month and games still to come .

Woo, thanks for the data!

Which is it?

If that info is still accurate, the US makes up roughly 36% of PS4's total sales. That says all that really needs to be said. This isn't a big deal.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1315464

Yea, seeing what Gundam linked me, let me change my view around.

Instead of unlikely, it think there's a good chance then that PS4 is doing better then last year WW, enough to make up the NA drop.

However, I do still think it was largely a misjudging of the market that led to the NA drop.

But that's clearly a personal conclusion given what we know. I think if the WW numbers are up, the scenario most likely in my head:

MS announced XB1S > Sony misjudges impact of XB1S > PS4 numbers drop > Sony sees WW numbers are good/up > Opts to continue course instead of being more aggressive

Granted, that's really basic and I'm sure you can throw in a bunch of variables to shift stuff around.

Spoiler

Yes, this was largely a mental exercise. I'm waiting for numbers. Sue me

 

[Jarod McChicken]

Some Claire tweets

Good month for software at retail and even more digital.

So while physical USA Oct 2016 SW sales were up by only +$38.1 million YOY, digital SW sales jumped by a whopping +$82.8 million

Nintendo games in the coma before Pokemon.

Every Nintendo title combined comprised a mere 5% of sales at NPD USA Retail in Oct 2016, and we're almost at the holidays. Down -43% YOY.

Despite Gears of War and BF1 marketing, PS4 still leads the month in software but that's close.

Out of $376 mil SW at Oct 2016 NPD USA Retail, PS4 SW sold $171 mil (45%), Xbox One SW sold $156 mil (42%), and Wii U SW sold $13 mil (3%).

At Oct 2016 NPD USA Retail, PS4 software is up +58% YOY, Xbox One software is up +22%, and Wii U software is -52%. All software is up +11%.

A decline in the accessories field suggest a limited shipment for PS VR.

Accessories decline from $160.2 mil to $121.0 mil (-24% YOY) at Oct 2016 NPD USA Retail imply that PS VR had a small initial retail shipment.

However we already know the main reason of the weak accessories showing. You can probably add the crumbling amiibo market too.

Probably the most tragic is the sheer collapse of $ATVI's Skylanders at USA retail.

 

[Primethius]

Unless I'm misunderstanding something, PS4 SW means that the PS4s built in base was able to push more SW then the XB1.

Which really means to me (and what's not surprising): Gears 4, despite being #3, probably isn't too hot in the actual numbers.

 

[Kathian]

Unless I'm misunderstanding something, PS4 SW means that the PS4s built in base was able to push more SW then the XB1.

Which really means to me (and what's not surprising): Gears 4, despite being #3, probably isn't too hot in the actual numbers.

Uhm how do you get the second statement from that? What it shows is that this month Xbox One users were spending more than PS4 users. There is just more PS4 users.

 

[Primethius]

Uhm how do you get the second statement from that? What it shows is that this month Xbox One users were spending more than PS4 users. There is just more PS4 users.

It's an assumption based on:

PS4 not having a big AAA exclusive this month while XB1 does. If PS4s SW sales were up over XB1 despite XB1 selling more this month and PS4 likely being down YoY (or is this already confirmed?), then in some part, Gears numbers can't be that impressive (as there was other XB1 SW to sell).

Granted, from the UK we already knew the franchise dropped heavily. It's just a matter of figuring out where to.

Edit: Also, really tired and sleepy so maybe my heads not screwed on right this morning?

 

[blakep267]

Unless I'm misunderstanding something, PS4 SW means that the PS4s built in base was able to push more SW then the XB1.

Which really means to me (and what's not surprising): Gears 4, despite being #3, probably isn't too hot in the actual numbers.

Well if the statement includes digital than it makes sense. Battlefield 1 and mafia likely sold more physical copies for PS4 than on the Xbox. If you include digital sales that also would be the case. A chunk of gears sales arent going to be disclosed

Also last year Halo sold almost a million in October so it makes sense that the Xbox software would be slightly up this year where as last year for the PS4 the biggest game they launched last October was the uncharted collection. So with Battlefield and mafia sales are going to be up this year. Also add the VR game sales

 

[Elandyll]

I'm going to guess Sony doesn't want anything to cut in the initial sales of the Pro, as they probably see it as a risky never-been-done-before proposition, specially around the crucial BF period.

I'm think like Welfare that we'll probably see the bundles anounced for NA (a COD one at the very least) after BF week, either last week of Nov or more likely 1st week of Dec.

Personally, I'd do IW as the new default slim bundle, and 2 Holiday bundles, one with Bloodborne/ Until Dawn and Driveclub ("gamer" bundle), and one with Ratchet& Clank/ LBP3 and Tearaway (family bundle).

 

[watdaeff4]

Unless I'm misunderstanding something, PS4 SW means that the PS4s built in base was able to push more SW then the XB1.

Which really means to me (and what's not surprising): Gears 4, despite being #3, probably isn't too hot in the actual numbers.

Gears 4 undoubtedly had a drop-off from 3. BUt how big is hard to say. While I'm not going to say a 9:1 ratio - with play anywhere with Gears there is a good chance that 30-33% of its' sales were digital with the way digital sales have been creeping over the last year.

THose SW numbers provided are just for physical retain correct? No digital?

EDIT:
I also of the mindset that we will see a COD bundle from Sony in early December. The killer bundle would be one that included MW remastered. If they did that (which I doubt because of $ and justifiably so) all this speculation they are coasting on their laurels with the NA audience can disappear IMO.

 

[Living the Dream]

Will we ever get the numbers for Federation Forces? I so want to know.

 

[RexNovis]

It's an assumption based on:

PS4 not having a big AAA exclusive this month while XB1 does. If PS4s SW sales were up over XB1 despite XB1 selling more this month and PS4 likely being down YoY (or is this already confirmed?), then in some part, Gears numbers can't be that impressive (as there was other XB1 SW to sell).

Granted, from the UK we already knew the franchise dropped heavily. It's just a matter of figuring out where to.

Edit: Also, really tired and sleepy so maybe my heads not screwed on right this morning?

Well I'm not sure the revenue figures in the list count revenue from bundled units so it very well could be that the loss of BF1 and Gears retail sales by having existing bundles available contributed to lower reported revenue for these titles.

The truth of the matter is there's still a lot we don't know about these new revenue rankings and as such it's incredibly difficult to make any conclusions based specifically on them as the primary evidence. There are just so many potential factors to weigh with undisputed key less information to measure them with thanks to the loss of unit sales and platform rankings. It's best to wait or ask for a more complete picture from trusted sources.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

I disagree on their inability to change quickly since 2014 had them immediately reacting to AssCreed bundle massive win with a stupid PR release and suddenly releasing the one free game of choice bundle almost immediately to reduce the value gap with their base 399 console.

Also, even if bundles plan are locked in, there are plenty of ways to reduce the gap without needing to commit new SKUs. I would argue that simply adding Uncharted Collection or R&C to their current UC4 bundle alone would increase perception of value of their console.

Sure, but adding a single free game isn't doing much. Sony didn't hit the panic button and start chopping prices and bundling and so forth. They stuck with what they planned to do and then added a bit more afterward to slightly increase incentive.

That isn't a huge reactionary move.

instead of reacting immediately to the competitor-strategy.

Why do they have to do that? They have the lead in their competitor's best market in the world. They do not need to lose their minds every time MS gets some momentum. They can focus on their own goals because of the lead in NA and their much larger WW presence. 2014 didn't hurt Sony in NA. They followed that up with one of the biggest NA holidays ever. It is okay.

Personally, I think the PS4 isn't selling as well as a market leader should, and releasing three major pieces of hardware in two months instead of letting each of them breathe was really dumb. Obviously it's not the end of the world, but I still think it's worth pointing out when the market leader makes mistakes. They're losing sales and a bit of momentum for no apparent reason.

What is being used as the basis for determining how well a market leader should perform? Wii? PS2? Isn't the PS4 still on par with the PS2 overall? I mean, how much better is it supposed to be selling if this isn't good enough?

 

[Primethius]

Well I'm not sure the revenue figures in the list count revenue from bundled units so it very well could be that the loss of BF1 and Gears retail sales by having existing bundles available contributed to lower reported revenue for these titles.

The truth of the matter is there's still a lot we don't know about these new revenue rankings and as such it's incredibly difficult to make any conclusions based specifically on them as the primary evidence. There are just so many potential factors to weigh with undisputed key less information to measure them with thanks to the loss of unit sales and platform rankings. It's best to wait or ask for a more complete picture from trusted sources.

Oh for sure. I agree with that. I didn't mean to make my view sound definitive or anything. That's just the sort of thing that jumped out to.

(To clarify: SW being more on PS4 points out to be that multiplatform titles were the big sellers this month, and Gears 4 didn't pull enoigh to sway it the other way)

As you point out, a variety of factors and so on, so I'm definitely not trying to make definitive statements.

 

[Welfare]

What is being used as the basis for determining how well a market leader should perform? Wii? PS2? Isn't the PS4 still on par with the PS2 overall? I mean, how much better is it supposed to be selling if this isn't good enough?

I can't tell if this discussion is on US or WW, but here is 3rd year NPD results up to September for "Market Leading" consoles.

2003 PS2: 3,241,961
2009 WII: 4,017,100
2016 PS4: 2,188,100

Then with the second best selling consoles (% market share with lead console)

2003 XBX: 1,399,636 (30%)
2009 360: 2,391,500 (37%)
2016: XB1: 1,887,000 (46%)

PS4 is the "market leader" but not by much. This generation has been very close historically so if anything major happens to XB1 it can close the gap by a good margin.

 

[Trup1aya]

Unless I'm misunderstanding something, PS4 SW means that the PS4s built in base was able to push more SW then the XB1.

Which really means to me (and what's not surprising): Gears 4, despite being #3, probably isn't too hot in the actual numbers.

I dont see how you can come to this conclusion. There are more ps4 users, so before considering any first party titles Sony's platform SHOULD naturally lead in software sales.

The fact that it is even close between the two suggests that the average Xbox user has been spending more money on games than the average ps4 user... probably due in part to Xbox first party releases.

 

[Primethius]

I dont see how you can come to this conclusion. There are more ps4 users, so before considering any first party titles Sony's platform SHOULD naturally lead in software sales.

The fact that it is even close suggests that the average Xbox user has been spending more money on games than the average ps4 user... probably due in part to Xbox first party releases.

Here's how I came to that conclusion:

- XB1 is up YoY by 8%, so about ~329k sales.
- PS4 is likely down YoY, I don't think it's been confirmed either way however. I think I saw a post to that effect but I can't be certain.
- New console owners will either buy a game to go along with their console purchase or stick with the bundled title.
- XB1 had a fairly big exclusive game in October, Gears 4. I don't think the PS4 had any notable exclusives (unless you could the VR stuff?)

Given those details, yes, in a typical month you expect PS4 SW to be above XB1 SW due to the install base difference. But I'm fairly certain that PS4 SW doesn't win every month and I'm pretty sure we've gotten data in the past for months that XB1 SW has won.

That PS4 is leading SW despite XB1 winning HW, and XB1 having an major tentpole exclusive leads me to believe: Gears 4 didn't perform all that well.

OR

A title like BF1 did bonkers on consoles while Gears 4 did middling numbers.

It's not a definitive conclusion and of course, you can reinterpret the scenario a different way. But my initial conclusion was simply that Gears 4 didn't do big enough numbers to offset the typical gains/multiplatform prowess shown elsewhere.

Which, given the UK numbers for Gears, I don't think is an exactly shocking or out there conclusion. Seems fairly in line with the majority I would say.

 

[Fafalada]

Personally, I think the PS4 isn't selling as well as a market leader should, and releasing three major pieces of hardware in two months instead of letting each of them breathe

Eh - Slim is a cost saving revision, Pro is a premium SKU that is there to inflate average selling price, and PSVR is as much in competition with console hw as Rockband drum-sets were.

Clearing channels of original SKUs seems to be taking some time - but that's been troubling the competition as well. Holding back the revision until channels clear could work - but you can end up with PS2 Slim situation - where resulting shortages were bad enough that they lost a few NPDs to original XBox of all consoles.

 

[Trup1aya]

Here's how I came to that conclusion:

- XB1 is up YoY by 8%, so about ~329k sales.
- PS4 is likely down YoY, I don't think it's been confirmed either way however. I think I saw a post to that effect but I can't be certain.
- New console owners will either buy a game to go along with their console purchase or stick with the bundled title.
- XB1 had a fairly big exclusive game in October, Gears 4. I don't think the PS4 had any notable exclusives (unless you could the VR stuff?)

Given those details, yes, in a typical month you expect PS4 SW to be above XB1 SW due to the install base difference. But I'm fairly certain that PS4 SW doesn't win every month and I'm pretty sure we've gotten data in the past for months that XB1 SW has won.

That PS4 is leading SW despite XB1 winning HW, and XB1 having an major tentpole exclusive leads me to believe: Gears 4 didn't perform all that well.

OR

A title like BF1 did bonkers on consoles while Gears 4 did middling numbers.

It's not a definitive conclusion and of course, you can reinterpret the scenario a different way. But my initial conclusion was simply that Gears 4 didn't do big enough numbers to offset the typical gains/multiplatform prowess shown elsewhere.

Which, given the UK numbers for Gears, I don't think is an exactly shocking or out there conclusion. Seems fairly in line with the majority I would say.

Either way you want to look at it you have to reach to come to that conclusion. Its like you have a preconceived notion that if gears sold 'well' then it alone would overcome the sales gap between ps4 and Xbox.

I don't think it's shocking to conclude that gears sales weren't amazing... but THIS is not evidence.

 

[Primethius]

Either way you want to look at it you have to reach to come to that conclusion. Its like you have a preconceived notion that if gears sold 'well' then it alone would overcome the sales gap between ps4 and Xbox.

I don't think it's shocking to conclude that gears sales weren't amazing... but THIS is not evidence.

Well, that's fantastic then. I didn't proclaim it as a definitive statement nor did I pretend I was parading around a factual insight given the data we received.

I simply put it out as what the data meant to me, given the limited numbers we have.

You call it reaching? Cool. I hate to break it to you but most of my posts in this thread that start with "I feel" or "this indicates to me" are gonna sound like a lot of reaching to you. Just be ready for that.

 

[Liabe Brave]

Then with the second best selling consoles (% market share with lead console)

2003 XBX: 1,399,636 (30%)
2009 360: 2,391,500 (37%)
2016: XB1: 1,887,000 (46%)

You're using the wrong years for the older consoles. The third year for Xbox was 2004, and the third year for 360 was 2008. Here's what I have for the actual numbers:

2004 Xbox: 2,054,000 (78%)
2008 360: 2,089,000 (40%)
2016 XB1: 1,887,000 (46%)

 

[CosmicQueso]

How the heck can anyone expect to have a helpful conversation when people are using "selling well" or "not selling good enough" when no one defines what well or good even means? Would be helpful if people were more specific.

 

[get2sammyb]

Sony cares about meeting its global projections. While I'm sure it'd like to be comfortably on top in the US, they won't be worrying unless they're short of their worldwide forecast. If they're on track for that, then they're not going to change their plans because they've fallen behind in a couple of NPD reports.

They set a very loft target for this FY, so let's see how it plays out.

 

[Welfare]

You're using the wrong years for the older consoles. The third year for Xbox was 2004, and the third year for 360 was 2008. Here's what I have for the actual numbers:

2004 Xbox: 2,054,000 (78%)
2008 360: 2,089,000 (40%)
2016 XB1: 1,887,000 (46%)

I was comparing the second place consoles within the same year as the leader. Using 2 different years within the same generation can skew results.

 

[Clear]

Look, the imminent release of the Pro is certain to have some sort of dampening effect on PS4 sales in the short-term. Its inevitable, when the new model is priced so competitively with the existing ones.

I'll be very surprised if Sony doesn't win November, even given MS historic performance in the month.

 

[Primethius]

How the heck can anyone expect to have a helpful conversation when people are using "selling well" or "not selling good enough" when no one defines what well or good even means? Would be helpful if people were more specific.

You're right.

For my discussion, I'll start my saying that I thought Gears 4 would land in the 600-700k range. But now, I feel like it's probably <400k or close to it.

 

[Jon Carter]

I can't tell if this discussion is on US or WW, but here is 3rd year NPD results up to September for "Market Leading" consoles.

2003 PS2: 3,241,961
2009 WII: 4,017,100
2016 PS4: 2,188,100

Then with the second best selling consoles (% market share with lead console)

2003 XBX: 1,399,636 (30%)
2009 360: 2,391,500 (37%)
2016: XB1: 1,887,000 (46%)

PS4 is the "market leader" but not by much. This generation has been very close historically so if anything major happens to XB1 it can close the gap by a good margin.

You're using the wrong years for the older consoles. The third year for Xbox was 2004, and the third year for 360 was 2008. Here's what I have for the actual numbers:

2004 Xbox: 2,054,000 (78%)
2008 360: 2,089,000 (40%)
2016 XB1: 1,887,000 (46%)

I was comparing the second place consoles within the same year as the leader. Using 2 different years within the same generation can skew results.

Thanks a lot for the numbers! Do you guys happen to have handheld numbers?

How the heck can anyone expect to have a helpful conversation when people are using "selling well" or "not selling good enough" when no one defines what well or good even means? Would be helpful if people were more specific.

In case you're referring to this conversation, what I meant is that the PS4 has been selling more like a runner up than a market leader in the US (and in Japan, but that's a different story) historically, after launching with record sales. This generation as a whole is a disappointment compared with the last. DS, Wii, PS3, Xbox 360 and PSP all sold very to relatively well. This generation, the PS4 is the only system that will be up over its predecessor worldwide, and none of the other systems will be close to doing it. So, among weaker competition, I think the PS4 had the opportunity to sell closer to the previous gens' market leaders in the US.

 

[Obliterator]

PS4 is the "market leader" but not by much. This generation has been very close historically so if anything major happens to XB1 it can close the gap by a good margin.

Yeah the PS4s global dominance has kind of glossed over the fact that statistically speaking NA us actually pretty close. For a console in 2nd place the Xbone is actually doing very very well in NA.

It's issue is it has been performing very poorly up until recently in International markets

You're right.

For my discussion, I'll start my saying that I thought Gears 4 would land in the 600-700k range. But now, I feel like it's probably <400k or close to it.

Around 500k would be my guess

 

[Liabe Brave]

I was comparing the second place consoles within the same year as the leader. Using 2 different years within the same generation can skew results.

I'd argue that comparing consoles with different ages can skew the results even more. Time on market affects library size, game quality, multiplayer concurrence, game and console costs, and so on. These intrinsic factors surely affect sales strongly. If the choice is between normalizing those factors or normalizing the competitive pressure level of the leader, it's hard to imagine a scenario where the latter has more analytical significance.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

I can't tell if this discussion is on US or WW, but here is 3rd year NPD results up to September for "Market Leading" consoles.

2003 PS2: 3,241,961
2009 WII: 4,017,100
2016 PS4: 2,188,100

Then with the second best selling consoles (% market share with lead console)

2003 XBX: 1,399,636 (30%)
2009 360: 2,391,500 (37%)
2016: XB1: 1,887,000 (46%)

PS4 is the "market leader" but not by much. This generation has been very close historically so if anything major happens to XB1 it can close the gap by a good margin.

I was talking about WW. I am hoping the bold is referring to the US...

Oh, and would it be incorrect to say the US has never been a "big" territory for PS? Like, it has obviously performed well but hasn't the bulk of support traditionally come from outside of US? I don't know the data so I would just like to know.