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Nvidia has lost nearly half of its value (a decline of nearly 48%)

It goes without saying that Nvidia will surely rebounce from this as the stock marked is unpredictable and changes quickly. However, it also cannot be stated enough that this drop is monstrous and that it comes as a result of a wave of very problematic elements combining.

Nvidia is a company that has reached the highest highs and the lowest lows, all in the span of a couple of weeks.

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Over the past two months, Nvidia’s stock has dropped from a closing price of $289.36 on October 1 to today’s opening of $148.42, a decline of 48.8 percent.

It takes a lot for a company to lose nearly half its value in such a short period of time, but Nvidia is proving that an otherwise strong technology business can disappear in the blink of an eye. The company faces an almost perfect barrage of headwinds to its core products that is stalling its plans for long-term chip domination.

To step back a bit first though, Nvidia has traditionally made graphical processing units (GPUs) that are excellent at the kinds of parallel computation required for gaming and applications like computer-aided design (CAD). It’s a durable and repeatable business, and one that Nvidia has a commanding market share in.

Yet, these markets are also fairly narrow, and so Nvidia has endeavored over the past few years to expand its product offerings to encompass new applications like artificial intelligence / machine learning, autonomous automotive and crypto hashing. These applications all need strong parallelized processing, which Nvidia specializes in.

More at the link.


The RTX cards left me disappointed so I am not sure how to feel. A part of me hopes that Nvidia will learn a "lesson" and try to diverge away from this path they have been on for a very long time. Fermi and Maxwell offered incredible, graphics cards with real performance benefits, and their software suite and drivers were just way, way better than AMD. From UI to correspondence, Nvidia just had an extra layer of security, and it resulted in gamers having more trust in their games being correctly optimized for Nvidia products than AMD.
But Nvidias lack of proper competition had turned their products from being a good value. The RTX cards brought substantial price hikes at the expense of minor performance improvements. The bumbled and hyped Ray-Traying, is unproven, and on top of that, it comes from Nvidia, a manufacturer who has been known in the past for needlessly making its technologies, convoluted and consumer fragmenting(G-synch, for example).
It is weird being a fan of their products, but still rooting for AMD to bring us more competition- And with it; more value, better prices and more performance. It was really disappointing to see the prices of the RTX cards. The price gourge seemed like a ploy to take advantage of the cryptomining craze. It comes as a spit in the face of consumers who helped grow Nvidia. Now millions of miners are RMA'ing their Graphics Cards, and we have an overabundance of Maxwell cards on the market.

This risk slowing down the adoption of RTX Cards in general, and that slow growth can compel developers to never actually really use the RTX tech to make substantially better-looking games (due to, too low a market penetration). That means, that gamers who forked out for the new RTX cards will pay for marginally better tech that goes underutilized in games of tomorrow.
The games industry is pretty incredible in how word of mouth has a way of really affecting companies bottom line for bad business practices. It's something Ubisoft, Sony, Microsoft and Electronic Arts have felt over the years, as consumer outcry actually ended up turning a lot of users off. There are many other industries where that sort of vocal outcry doesn't tend to have that impact.
Is Nvidias stock plummeting a good thing in your eyes? Do you think it will bounce back to these previous record levels? Do you think AMD can capitalize on this with their next cards, and finally make Nvidia (and Intel) sweat? 2-3 years of now, when we will most likely see the next architecture following RTX, do you think we will look at 2160, 2170, 2180 and 2180 Ti cards with a lot better value and performance benefits? Will prices even go down following more competition from AMD? How good does the next AMD cards have to be in gaming (and productivity) for really to make Nvidia users like myself switch?
 

demigod

Member
I'm not surprised. Miners died down and then you have an RTX which imo is a failure. I'll keep my SLI 1080s until 3000 series.
 

shark sandwich

tenuously links anime, pedophile and incels
I bought Nvidia at $17 in 2012 and sold it at $21. Even after this drop, the big picture is that they have seen massive growth over the last 5-6 years.

They are behaving exactly how you’d expect a company with no competition to behave. Nothing would make me happier than to see them get some real competition at the high end.

... but the reality is that AMD still hasn’t caught up to the GTX 1080 from 2 1/2 years ago. And rumor is that Navi next year might finally be in the same ballpark as the 1080.

AMD is 3 years behind. Nvidia will be the premium price/premium performance option for the foreseeable future.
 

Shai-Tan

Banned
It's probably not a good idea to riff on stock prices from an enthusiast perspective? Consumer GPU is a segment they have been trying to diversify away from and the drop is probably more related to confidence or lack of it in those efforts?
 

AgentP

Thinks mods influence posters politics. Promoted to QAnon Editor.
Why is the RTX bad, basically the same pattern every gen. 2x performance and the same price points.
 

manfestival

Member
Is 2018 the year of companies just being way out of touch on things? Just seems like I am just hearing so much bad news for many companies and it always seems like it is the same general problem. Being out of touch with the consumer.
 
I've been buying Nvidia's Ti cards at launch for years now and even I passed on the 2080 Ti. I'm sorry Nvidia, you jumped the shark with this one. Hopefully they can right the ship with the die-shrink version of Turing in 2019 and offer reasonable pricing on them.

The wild card is Intel, if they can actually release a decent dGPU which can compete on the high end, they could actually make Nvidia lower prices again. AMD are completely inept, they have nothing competitive in the high end and Nvidia knows it. However Nvidia is now running up against the limits of people are willing to pay. Pricing the new Turing cards 1 tier up from the Pascal cards was insanity.
 
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Nelsin

Banned
Nvidia got really greedy with the 20xx series. I actually loved the RTX technology ,but damn those jump prices are insane. Same with apple they keep jumping the prices over the last few years expecting consumers blindly buying them( well most of the time they do) ,but I'm really happy it backed fired at those two greedy ass companies.
 

JohnnyFootball

GerAlt-Right. Ciriously.
They need to release competent GPU in high end space first.

I'm glad that Nvidia is losing value but I don't think it will change much, Intel and AMD gpus can.
AMD will be fine being competitive in the mid-range low end. If Navi is a success in competing with the 2080, it will be a success. AMD does not need something that can go toe to toe with the 2080 Ti.
 

Shin

Banned
The best part of it is that they blamed AMD for it, ahahahaha
Their bullshit greed finally caught up and it serves them right, no mercy.
 

Lonely_Wolf1886

Neo Member
I'm not surprised. Miners died down and then you have an RTX which imo is a failure. I'll keep my SLI 1080s until 3000 series.
I planning to go sli for my 1080. Is it worth the upgrade, do games have increased performance? or should i wait till 3000 series.
 

xwez

Banned
... but the reality is that AMD still hasn’t caught up to the GTX 1080 from 2 1/2 years ago. And rumor is that Navi next year might finally be in the same ballpark as the 1080.

So I take it Vega 64 doesn't exist in your parallel reality?

Even if what you said is true, that they "haven't caught up to the GTX 1080 from 2 1/2 years ago", considering they haven't released anything post-vega 56/64, that's to be expected.
 

demigod

Member
I planning to go sli for my 1080. Is it worth the upgrade, do games have increased performance? or should i wait till 3000 series.

It depends. Do you have a 4k monitor or a 1440p 144hz gsync monitor? If you can find a 1080 for cheap and have one of these i’d say go for it. But if you’re only playing in 1080p i’d say no.
 

Kadayi

Banned
Absurd pricing on those RTX cards. I like my games, but I could buy a second-hand car for the prices they are charging for those cards.
 

llien

Member
Before this sharp drop there had been insane growth, fueled by raising revenue, fueled by high prices (next gen tier would cost as previous gen's +1 tier, e.g. 1070 closer to 980 in price, 2070 close to 1080) and the promises of automotive/datacenter business that never materialized.

I mean, compared to Intel, did it ever make sense that nvidia's market capitalization rivaled Intel's, while Intel has 5 times the revenue at the same 60% margins?

And rumor is that Navi next year might finally be in the same ballpark as the 1080.
That, my friend, is actually not a problem for AMD, given the size TDP and expected price of the expected Navi chip, on the opposite, it's very problematic for nVidia, if true.

They need to release competent GPU in high end space first.
But why? 4870 vs GTX 280 anyone? (half price, 90% of performance, consumed fraction of power)
 

Allandor

Member
Well, stocks … this is just another world.
But not unexpected. RT is just a gimmick with one game, and nothing for the launch. DLSS is another gimmick that hurts image quality for a bit more performance and has a nogo like flickering and artifacts.
Than there is the problem that many of the new cards just got bricked while using them normally.
Bitcoin is worth less and less so the mining boom is over. So there are less customers that order thousands of cards at once.
Their ARM chip is dead in the water. Yes it is used in the switch but so far there is no profit visible for this branch.

But still, nvidia is in good shape. Their products have no competition in the high-end sector, so they can dictate prices.

and stocks are highly speculative just like bitcoin. There is always a way to fall down if somebody bought before for high prices.
 

shark sandwich

tenuously links anime, pedophile and incels
So I take it Vega 64 doesn't exist in your parallel reality?

Even if what you said is true, that they "haven't caught up to the GTX 1080 from 2 1/2 years ago", considering they haven't released anything post-vega 56/64, that's to be expected.
Vega 64 performs worse than 1080 in almost all games. It’s also bigger and more power hungry than the 1080 Ti.

And it released over a year later than 1080.
 

thelastword

Banned
I bought Nvidia at $17 in 2012 and sold it at $21. Even after this drop, the big picture is that they have seen massive growth over the last 5-6 years.

They are behaving exactly how you’d expect a company with no competition to behave. Nothing would make me happier than to see them get some real competition at the high end.

... but the reality is that AMD still hasn’t caught up to the GTX 1080 from 2 1/2 years ago. And rumor is that Navi next year might finally be in the same ballpark as the 1080.

AMD is 3 years behind. Nvidia will be the premium price/premium performance option for the foreseeable future.
AMD's Rx 64 beats the Gtx 1080 in many games and matches it in others, except unoptimized titles like AC Odyssey etc.....and Nvidia branded titles. Vega 56 also beats Gtx 1070.

The only card AMD did not compete with was the 1080ti and even the LC version of Vega 64 beats that card in some titles. If you think Navi will only compete with a gtx 1080 when Vega 64 is already doing that, then I guess AMD really needs to double the performance of NV cards for persons to concede that it competes.

They need to release competent GPU in high end space first.

I'm glad that Nvidia is losing value but I don't think it will change much, Intel and AMD gpus can.
They don't? They will and they can with Navi, but I don't think that's why Nvidia has the monopoly, it's not because of high end cards.... Besides, what's the install base of RTX 2080ti's on steam surveys ....,even 1080ti's ? At those Ti prices, especially the latest one, these things are not making a dent anywhere, so AMD concentrates on the cards which moves the most volume.....and offer the best value there......

Now, what they are going to do with Navi is extend that good value...Great price to perf ratio, just like their mid-tier polaris cards.... A Rx 3080 Navi offering Rtx 2080 perf at $300 will be great and can make a dent in the market. So AMD will definitely compete at the high end..... So a Navi card in the $500-600 range would definitely compete with a 2080ti, and it would make the high end much more interesting for consumers than the $800-1200 NV cards on offer to a bad price to perf ratio vs old pascal cards.... At least if AMD goes ultra high end, it will offer great value to customers and there will finally be affordable ultra high end GPU's on the market for a wider demographic.
 
Put out cards that people can afford / want to buy and you won't have this problem. I get it's new technology that has to start somewhere, but I don't think it was mature enough to release RTX at this point. The market shows that.
 

fermcr

Member
A few years back a average graphics card was priced between 150-200€ and a high card was 400-500€. Now a average card is 300-400€ and a high card 1000€.

Graphics cards prices are absurdly high.
 
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prag16

Banned
I agree with all the posts in here correctly pointing out that the RTX serious pricing is way too high, as I've said from the start in the RTX announcement topic on here. Hell, almost everybody recognized that the pricing was absurd, except for one poster I can recall. Paging Leonidas Leonidas ... what now?

Between the crazy price increases over the last few iterations (we went from $300 for an 'upper middle class' card to $500 in only a few years) and some semblance of sanity returning to the crypto markets, this isn't a shocker.
 

shark sandwich

tenuously links anime, pedophile and incels
AMD's Rx 64 beats the Gtx 1080 in many games and matches it in others, except unoptimized titles like AC Odyssey etc.....and Nvidia branded titles. Vega 56 also beats Gtx 1070.

The only card AMD did not compete with was the 1080ti and even the LC version of Vega 64 beats that card in some titles. If you think Navi will only compete with a gtx 1080 when Vega 64 is already doing that, then I guess AMD really needs to double the performance of NV cards for persons to concede that it competes.
Looking at more recent benchmarks, Vega 64 is roughly the same performance as 1080, while consuming 100-150W more power. And it launched 15 months later. So no I don’t consider that serious competition. From a gaming perspective there’s very little reason to choose Vega 64 over the 1080 unless you want FreeSync or you just hate Nvidia, and that’s is reflected in the market share numbers. Just go look at the Steam stats.
 

Blam

Member
It's not just Nvidia that's all tech companies went down. Basically anyone in anyway involved with crypto was over valued.
 
All I can say is thank god people are starting to hop off the crypto ship. I've had the upgrade bug for months now but current pricing along with user reviews of failed 2080ti cards has cured me of my ailment.
 

llien

Member
Right now they have 90% of performance, costs the same or more and consumes 2x the power :p
Basically nothing in your statement is correct. Vega 56 is cheaper, faster and consumes about 60% more energy (figures vary a lot between testers)


It's not just Nvidia that's all tech companies went down. Basically anyone in anyway involved with crypto was over valued.
No, not really, no changes for Intel at all and nothing changed since November for AMD either (and overall 6 month turbulence is also lower)

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