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October 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Wed., November 9th

Elandyll said:
I'm a bit puzzled though.

If the S is such a huuuuge attractor, why is it borderline DOA on Amazon?
Why are 4 bundles of OG XB1 at $249 (can't get rid of stock it looks like, been like that for a month+) and a refurb og XB1 ahead of the normally much more attractive XB1S + Gears on Gamestop?

Trying to figure out what is happening here.
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I think the XB1S is attracting consumers that buy through B&M. Probably those selling their Xbox 360's and upgrading.

I mean, even Best Buy is seeing an XB1 win, and usually BB (at least from what Abdiel reports) leans PlayStation. However, I don't think he said if the win was big or not.
 
Elandyll said:
I'm a bit puzzled though.

If the S is such a huuuuge attractor, why is it borderline DOA on Amazon?
Why are 4 bundles of OG XB1 at $249 (can't get rid of stock it looks like, been like that for a month+) and a refurb og XB1 ahead of the normally much more attractive XB1S + Gears on Gamestop?

Trying to figure out what is happening here.
Click to expand...

In the past, when another retailer offered a special deal, Amazon would offer one of similar value. However, over the past few months, this has not been the case. Gamestop and Best Buy would offer deals of their own while Amazon doesn't do much. Also, one of the XB1 bundles was not tracked on Amazon IIRC, so that hurts the correlation, too.
 
Trup1aya said:
Hasn't Amazon failed to predict the ndp leader these last few months?...

I guess people are just buying their xbox's from other places.
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It failed to predict September. That's one month.

That being said, it really looks like it's about to fail predicting October as well.
 
Vena said:
Because Amazon doesn't sell the popular bundles/models of the S. This is a fairly self-explanatory question, if Product A is wanted but Company B does not sell it but instead sell the much less wanted Product C, Company B will see a lack of sales of Product C.

As it currently stands, Amazon is a piss-poor point of reference as it does not sell one of the most sold/wanted goods for one of the competitors.
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Which Xbox One bundles Amazon doesn't sell?
The most appealing Xbox bundle is clearly the Battlefield 299$ bundle to me and they're selling it.
Why is it not selling well?
I believe that Xbox will still outsell PS4 in October because core gamers are waiting for the Pro while the Xbox One S is capturing upgraders among the Xbox fans.
But discounting Amazon this way while it has always been a perfect demand gauger even last month when it predicted the PS4 Slim not taking off, is not a smart/safe thing to do.
Let's wait and see for the results.
 
Elios83 said:
Which Xbox One bundles Amazon doesn't sell?
The most appealing Xbox bundle is clearly the Battlefield 299$ bundle to me and they're selling it.
Why is it not selling well?
I believe that Xbox will still outsell PS4 in October because core gamers are waiting for the Pro while the Xbox One S is capturing upgraders among the Xbox fans.
But discounting Amazon this way while it has always been a perfect demand gauger even last month when it predicted the PS4 Slim not taking off, is not a smart/safe thing to do.
Let's wait and see for the results.
Click to expand...
Well for most of October(before the BF1 bundle), Amazon ran out of the $299 Halo bundle, and now in November, GameStop has an exclusive $299 Gears 4 bundle.

So October would be skewed because for a part of the month, the only $299 S bundle that was available was minecraft & November may be skewed because GS and Walmart I believe both have exclusive color bundles each for the Xbox one. And then also, maybe people just aren't buying Xbox's from amazon. I mean right now the uc4 slim bundle is higher than the BF1 Xbox bundle even though there is a free game deal going on with the Xbox
 
Elios83 said:
Which Xbox One bundles Amazon doesn't sell?
The most appealing Xbox bundle is clearly the Battlefield 299$ bundle to me and they're selling it.
Why is it not selling well?
I believe that Xbox will still outsell PS4 in October because core gamers are waiting for the Pro while the Xbox One S is capturing upgraders among the Xbox fans.
But discounting Amazon this way while it has always been a perfect demand gauger even last month when it predicted the PS4 Slim not taking off, is not a smart/safe thing to do.
Let's wait and see for the results.
Click to expand...
Amazon has not had the Halo bundle in stock since very late September. That would a big chunk of sales not showing up on Amazon.

And like I said above, XB1S is probably seeing demand from consumers that shop at B&M. Also Amazon will be even less relevant in November because both GameStop and Walmart have a unique $299 bundle. Blue Gears 4 bundle at GS and the Grey BF1 bundle at Walmart.
 
Welfare said:
Amazon has not had the Halo bundle in stock since very late September. That would a big chunk of sales not showing up on Amazon.

And like I said above, XB1S is probably seeing demand from consumers that shop at B&M. Also Amazon will be even less relevant in November because both GameStop and Walmart have a unique $299 bundle. Blue Gears 4 bundle at GS and the Grey BF1 bundle at Walmart.
Click to expand...

blakep267 said:
Well for most of October(before the BF1 bundle), Amazon ran out of the $299 Halo bundle, and now in November, GameStop has an exclusive $299 Gears 4 bundle.

So October would be skewed because for a part of the month, the only $299 S bundle that was available was minecraft & November may be skewed because GS and Walmart I believe both have exclusive color bundles each for the Xbox one. And then also, maybe people just aren't buying Xbox's from amazon. I mean right now the uc4 slim bundle is higher than the BF1 Xbox bundle even though there is a free game deal going on with the Xbox
Click to expand...

But the reason Amazon has not had the Halo bundle in stock is because that bundle was a limited edition not meant to be restocked. Amazon ended their allocation during the last week of september and that was it.
Infact the Halo bundle is not part of the Xbox holiday season bundles lineup, it was not meant to last or to be restocked long term.
Since we're talking about October sales I won't talk about the Gamestop exclusive blu console although IMO it looks absolutely ugly and I don't think that many people will be willing to buy it.
Still I'm not seeing a valid reason behind the fact that the Battlefield 299$ bundle which is the most attractive Xbox bundle of the holiday season is selling so poorly, where is the justification on that? Just saying that "maybe people don't buy their Xboxes on amazon" is not a thing supported by past history in any way.
Amazon still predicted the poor PS4 Slim sales in September in the US, in the UK it predicted that the Xbox FIFA bundle was the best selling console in October. I'm not seeing amazon failing at gauging trends.
So I'll wait to see the results on thursday, it will be interesting to see if it is amazon that is not correlating well with Xbox sales right now or if it's going to be a close month.
 
New infographic if you're into it while waiting for the tweets

EDIT: Wow that's a big graphic.

DLC-Infographic.png
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DriftingSpirit said:
If you put it in quote tags, that'll reduce the size.
Click to expand...

Thanks!
 
The past 2 months people have posted Amazon charts and time and time again we have to remind them that the Halo bundle (the best selling once) hasn't been in stock there since early September.
 
Donnie can we get a GAF prediction average?

MatPiscatella said:
Srsly. Sick and tired of experts and numbers myself.
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LOL! Can't say I ever expected to see a market analyst to say that. Thanks for the chuckle!

Totally serious btw it's been a crazy week and I needed a good laugh

Oh your image in previous post doesn't seem to load for me for some reason. Might wanna double check the URL.
 
Rowleyfan3620 said:
Can't watch the video at work. What are you referring to? Just curious!
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Just going to spoil this because it is something that should be watched.

Retention rate
of a few VR titles compared to AAA games Dark Souls 3 and The Division within the last 2 weeks actually being comparable.
 
Happy media release day, everyone.

#1 isn't too difficult at call.. Who do you got for #2-#4?

I'll be around later if anyone has questions I can (maybe) answer.
 
MatPiscatella said:
Happy media release day, everyone.

#1 isn't too difficult at call.. Who do you got for #2-#4?

I'll be around later if anyone has questions I can (maybe) answer.
Click to expand...

On the off chance you have the info, and can provide ratios (I 'd love to see the actual units, but ratios could still foster a nice discussion) - I'd be curious to see a premium VR headset sell-through comparison (ie: Vive/Oculus/PSVR @ XX%/XX%/XX%)
 
Shizza said:
On the off chance you have the info, and can provide ratios (I 'd love to see the actual units, but ratios could still foster a nice discussion) - I'd be curious to see a premium VR headset sell-through comparison (ie: Vive/Oculus/PSVR @ XX%/XX%/XX%)
Click to expand...

The video link above to EEDAR's VRDC presentation is the best publicly available information. Did you get a chance to watch that?
 
MatPiscatella said:
The video link above to EEDAR's VRDC presentation is the best publicly available information. Did you get a chance to watch that?
Click to expand...

Yup, and I found it pretty interesting. I'm curious to see how the price sensitivity among interested non-owners plays out in reality. It looks like PS VR is just above the sweet spot for pricing (of a premium model). If this initial version does well, I could see a refresh or next model doing really well with a slightly lower price point (based on that illustration).
 
MatPiscatella said:
Happy media release day, everyone.

#1 isn't too difficult at call.. Who do you got for #2-#4?

I'll be around later if anyone has questions I can (maybe) answer.
Click to expand...
I'm assuming you mean software. I don't really know the legs that Maria 3 had. It looks like it would have a great start then fall off. But still probably enough to beat out GOW. I think skyrim would be #4
 
MatPiscatella said:
Happy media release day, everyone.

#1 isn't too difficult at call.. Who do you got for #2-#4?

I'll be around later if anyone has questions I can (maybe) answer.
Click to expand...

Forgot this part before, but I'll give the top 10 a guess:
1. Battlefield 1
2. Mafia III
3. Titanfall 2
4. Gears of War 4
5. Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim Special Edition
6. NBA 2K17
7. FIFA 17
8. Madden NFL 17
9. WWE 2K17
10. Destiny: The Collection

Not so sure on the order for spots 3-5, but I'd bet they all place above the sports in spots 6-9, and rounding out the list with Destiny.
 
^ I'll be suprised if Titanfall even charts TBH. The week it came out on Xbox there were peak people online of like 30k. I'm guessing 150-200k would be needed to get those lower spots
 
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