Bruno MB
Member
From 847,000 units excluding bundles to probably 150,000 - 200,000 units, what a catastrophe.
[Mar, 2014] XBO TITANFALL (ELECTRONIC ARTS) - 847,000 / NEW
[Apr, 2014] 360 TITANFALL (ELECTRONIC ARTS) - 483,000 / NEW
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October 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Wed., November 9th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
From 847,000 units excluding bundles to probably 150,000 - 200,000 units, what a catastrophe.
[Mar, 2014] XBO TITANFALL (ELECTRONIC ARTS) - 847,000 / NEW
[Apr, 2014] 360 TITANFALL (ELECTRONIC ARTS) - 483,000 / NEW
Welfare
Member
Exactly. There are more than half a dozen "main" bundles for XB1 while PS4 only has UC4.
Gears and Skyrim are missing the PC digital sales revenue, I wonder how the chart would look like if they were included, Skyrim would probably be in 4th place I'd bet.
EDIT:In fact, hold on, didn't PC gamers who already owned Skyrim get the remastered edition for cheap or something? If so then maybe it wouldn't have gotten much higher even with PC sales revenue included.
EDIT:In fact, hold on, didn't PC gamers who already owned Skyrim get the remastered edition for cheap or something? If so then maybe it wouldn't have gotten much higher even with PC sales revenue included.
Achtung Englander
Member
Personally I will wait till January. We will know a lot more then !
Obliterator
Member
I also tend to believe Xbox 1st party titles are slightly higher than industry average due to Play Anywhere but probably not hugely above. If the average rests somewhere around 30% I think maybe 35% at most for Xbox titles at launch.
Either way the safe bet is just to stick to the average for now. I will say without raw numbers Gears being number 3 with no digital counted in October, which is a pretty busy month, looks pretty good.
It accounted for 17% of all hardware sold. I mean it still beat out a minecraft bundle.
MatPiscatella
Member
Those digital shares are inching up now. The 30% number Mr. Jorgensen put out there still a good baseline, but we're now seeing titles come in even stronger digitally.
We'll get numbers on November 21st as far as I know.
gundamkyoukai
Member
Really want to see gear numbers .
Don't expect to sell as well as gear 3 but i wonder if it falling hard like other MS IP.
Don't expect to sell as well as gear 3 but i wonder if it falling hard like other MS IP.
Monday we will.
Still 17% of all HW sales.
Sangetsu-II
Member
Ah yes, the good old Legendary SalesGaf trademark
Sangetsu-II
Member
Obliterator
Member
Wow, doesn't surprise me though at all. I just think the ease and convenience for a lot of people is a really important factor.
Welfare
Member
Play Anywhere and multiplayer centric titles would probably see higher digital average than others.
MatPiscatella
Member
Play early, digital bundles are all working very well. Raising digital shares and average pricing compared to physical. You're going to see much more of these tactics in the future.
Intresting.
To be fair that 30% was worldwide and the UK drags it down as proven with fifa at 29 percent. So it makes sense for digital to be higher in the US. But I think its best to apply the 30% digital to be on the safe side.
gundamkyoukai
Member
Yeah most people only buy 3 to 5 games per year .
And they play them all the time so DD would be a big convenience for them.
And it is growing rather fast .
MatPiscatella
Member
Well keep in mind it only had a couple days in market. Not really apples:apples to the rest of the market.
Obliterator
Member
Yeah I bet stuff like Gears and Forza are benefiting heavily from the play early tactic. That is quite the bonus.
I didn't buy it thoughAchtung Englander
Member
Sometimes the better game will get overlooked by a less critically acclaimed one. Sandwich between BF1 and COD release was never going to be a smart move to be honest
:Raises hand: Although I dropped it for Tokyo Ghost Hunters Special Gigs after about ten minutes.
I wonder if the numbers from a few years ago that correlated higher metacritic with higher sales still hold true with AAA games. Tf2 is a critical darling but that hasn't meant much.
Of course, everything being equal, it doesn't hurt to have nice scores. But if you have to design your game to appeal to those who are sick of the same old same old, and in so doing alienate normal people that don't play a dozen shooters per year, evey year; then maybe chasing m/c is a bad idea.
Wait. Those Ultimate Editions with early access were disc also right?
Obliterator
Member
Idk probably. But I feel like if you are the type of person who is that pumped about a game that you are willing to spend quite a bit more cash to play it early, you are also the type of person who bought it digital so you could have it pre-loaded for the most part. Its not the average guy who walks into his GameStop just sometime during launch week to pick up their copy
True.
MatPiscatella
Member
I've looked at 24 months of sales (actual or projected) correlated to gameranking.com score on an individual platform basis (to remove discrepancies due to platform mix) a number of times over the years.
The last time I looked at this I did see a slight drop in the correlation. Ballpark, around 28-35% or so of the variability of sales between games released on the same platform can be explained by changes in quality score, depending on genre, etc. This is down a couple points from when I looked at it back in 2012. Not a huge drop, it's slight, but yeah.
From the math I've done, I see review scores being slightly less predictive on forecast ultimate sales of a title than they used to be.
yeah that surprised me too, well deserved, too. Best game in the franchise.
It's probably above Gears: Judgement and i hope with it's quality and word of mouth gears begins to grow as a series again
Dash_Riprock
Member
Edit: LMFAO wrong thread.
MatPiscatella
Member
Cheers.
Quality/Sales correlation is one of the things I've always been very interested in.
M rated RPGs show the most quality:sales correlation, btw. It's very high.
Family games, not surprisingly, are the lowest.
You guys keep ignoring the ton of firesales on OG XB1 to clear stocks, because you want to believe the XB1s is selling a metric ton.
Obviously we can't know unless we'd get the detail between OG XB1 and XB1s bundles, but I thought it was pretty telling that Walmart online and Gamestop both showed multiple OG XB1 bundles at $249 outselling the XB1s bundles.
#shrug
But yeah, Amazon (which doesn't carry these types of bundles) was perhaps not "that" wrong (in context).
A usual, there's a reason for everything, and there is no rationale for a retailer that is about 10% of the market to be that off the mark unless there is a specific (identified) reason.
In October (and possibly still), OG XB1 bundles at $249 are selling (quite a bit) more than the XB1s is my guess.
MatPiscatella
Member
OG bundles were not a primary driver of performance or pricing in October.
Happy to be here. Have followed the conversations here for years, and have taken more than my fair share of insights away from SalesGAF. Glad to give back what I can.
Thanks for the info. Real nice to have you here providing your insight.
Also nice to have someone who can just provide corrections on the spot.
Welfare
Member
Gamestop digital is like low single digital % market share for Gamestop as a whole, and isn't representative of retail Gamestop. Also Amazon does sell XB1 bundles.
XB1S outsold XB1 in August, sales kept at about the same pace from August in September, and has grown from September in October. XB1 had nothing to do with that as this month saw the releases of two Gears 4 bundles, 2 BF1 bundles, and improved sales of the Minecraft bundle as that was noted to bring ASP down.
Amazon has not been accurate these past few months and XB1 sales are not because of that.
They may have be o drop the price to $199 to get rid of any remaining stock
Liabe Brave
Member
Yes. Though it does mean that the PS4 Slim with Uncharted 4 was more popular in the U.S. than an Xbox One S with the entire Gears series, or an Xbox One S with the entire Halo series.
That pushes back a little on the perception stated by multiple people that "there's no excitement for the Slim".
Welfare
Member
Xbox One sales are going to be split between all those different bundles. When the PS4 Slim is the primary bundle, general PS4 sales are going to go to that.
Even then, 17% sounds tiny anyway and doesn't give much at all in terms of performance. An actual % breakdown between SKUs would be better.
sources?
There is literally no reason for Amazon to be such an outlier.
Note that obviously the number of bundles with the XB1s is of course a factor, but the PS4 also has more than the UC4 slim bundle. The PS4 COD Blop III bundle is till popular where available, and the PS4 UC LE is also still available and popular. And that was the month right before the PS4 pro, yet another SKU.
Welfare
Member
From our very own analyst
Like I have said before, Xbox One S sales have probably been coming from B&M more than usual. Could be a number of reasons for that.
Liabe Brave
Member
That is my whole point. In Xbox's most powerful region, PS4 by itself (with some de rigeur help from Uncharted 4) still attracts more customers than an Xbox One S paired with every single game from either of the two most popular series Microsoft owns. The Xbox One offering as a whole has been more popular recently, but the comparison doesn't seem to show an explosive flowering of the platform, as some have analyzed. Certainly Microsoft is still leagues away from their last-gen performance, even if their recent good work has moved the needle in the right direction.
I think this is partially due to a later release (in terms of tracking for FIFA) - 2015 had 3 weeks of sales in September, while 2016 had only 1 week of sales in September.
But the bigger factor would probably be that in 2015 the list was order by units, while in 2016 it's ordered by revenue, and I'd suspect that the Ultimate Team micro-transactions gives FIFA a nice boost in the ranking (unless there is something similar in the NBA games).