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Pachter: 10% boost in PS3 sales because of BR news, even better in the long term

E

Elios83

Member
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=33280

Analysts agree that HD DVD demise is good news for the console

Sales of the PlayStation 3 could see a rise of up to 10 per cent in the wake of Toshiba's pull-out from the next generation DVD war as a result of educated consumers who have been waiting for the format war to end.

That's according to Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter, who also told GamesIndustry.biz that as well as the short term boost, the long term effect will be even more positive.

"Longer term, I think it's a huge boon for Sony, as most retail clerks will be instructed to push Blu-ray along with sales of HD monitors at holiday, so we should see a large increase in PS3 sales year-over-year at holiday," he said.

Ed Barton and Richard Cooper, from Screen Digest, broadly agree: "With the format war over, and the end of the consumer indecision resulting from it, video consumers are likely to purchase the PS3 as the most cost effective, future proof Blu-ray player," they said.

"In the longer term lower price, higher specification set-top Blu-ray players will take on the role as best entry level Blu-ray player but not within the next 12 months. This could result in a small but significant rise in the number of PS3s bought over the next 12 months as Blu-ray players."

On the question of what Microsoft's response might be, given that the Xbox 360 supported an HD DVD peripheral but with no official plans to do the same for Blu-ray at this point, opinion was mixed.

Pachter feels that while committing the Xbox 360 to Blu-ray is an option for Microsoft, either in terms of a built-in device or as a peripheral, both are unlikely - while to compete on that basis with the PlayStation 3 the company can only look towards price cuts.

Barton and Cooper feel that the demise of HD DVD won't have a negative effect on the Xbox 360, and that Microsoft will instead see benefits in other areas.

"If anything Microsoft will appreciate more Xbox 360 owners being driven to the Live Video Store as it makes more margin on HD content supply from XBL than via the HD DVD platform."

Sony is yet to officially comment on the HD DVD situation, while Microsoft has reiterated that it doesn't believe Xbox 360 sales will be affected.

"As we've long stated, we believe it is games that sell consoles and Xbox 360 continues to have the largest next-gen games library with the most exclusives and best selling games in the industry," the company said.
Click to expand...
 
A

AstroLad

Hail to the KING baby
P pretty much completely vindicated here--guessing we won't see many of his haters coming in here to eat their well-deserved crow re the PS3 though.
 
Yoshichan

Yoshichan

And they made him a Lord of Cinder. Not for virtue, but for might. Such is a lord, I suppose. But here I ask. Do we have a sodding chance?
Vagabundo said:
Good luck against DVDs... Or is that torrents.. Wat.
Click to expand...
DVDs compeeting against PS2.
 
Z

Zombie James

Banned
Sales of the PlayStation 3 could see a rise of up to 10 per cent in the wake of Toshiba's pull-out from the next generation DVD war as a result of educated consumers who have been waiting for the format war to end.
Click to expand...

Makes sense.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
I would normally have said no, but looking at Toshiba's sales figures for their HD-DVD players, it is unquestionably clear that the console market and format war had significant overlap. I don't know if anyone would buy a 360 for HD-DVD, but it certainly looks as though some did-- at least early on when there was a price advantage.

ps lol toshiba
 
V

Vagabundo

Member
In the longer term lower price, higher specification set-top Blu-ray players will take on the role as best entry level Blu-ray player but not within the next 12 months. This could result in a small but significant rise in the number of PS3s bought over the next 12 months as Blu-ray players.
Click to expand...

I do question this, though. Will it really take that long (12mtns)? Cheap BR players have been on the horizon for a while now.
 
V

Vagabundo

Member
Crusade said:
How many millions is 10%?
Click to expand...

About 10% of this years holiday season sales for PS3. I think it was 4 million. So 0.4 million.

EDIT: Opps he said immediate 10%, not holiday season. So a monthly 10% bump until christmas. Since it sold <10million in the first year, <1 million in sales from the bump.
 
D

DenogginizerOS

BenjaminBirdie's Thomas Jefferson
Vagabundo said:
Good luck against DVDs... Or is that torrents.. Wat.
Click to expand...
DVD's upscaled using the PS3's upscaler look incredible. Either way, the PS3 is a kick-ass DVD and Blu-ray player on top of being a game console.
 
E

eznark

Banned
It makes sense short term, but the long term implications seem minor. With the console war over, it's likely that non-PS3 players will drop in price as they will try to reach beyond the early adopter market. Already there are blu-ray players at the same price point as the PS3, and if/as blu ray becomes adopted mainstream, these players will only get cheaper.

It'll be impossible to really judge the impact of blu ray however, since PS3 was already looking to have a fantastic year as it is.

All I'm hoping for is a drop in blu ray disc prices.
 
T

ToxicAdam

Member
I think Holiday season of 2008 will pretty much decide how this thing will shake out. It will be interesting to see what the companies do (price drops, giveaways, etc) to try and win this year.

I still see no evidence that the average consumer is clamoring for HD movie players, but it is a huge bullet point for Sony to have under their umbrella.
 
P

pswii60

Member
This all depends on what price BluRay players become later this year. If PS3+BR Remote is still the better value option, I see it working well for Sony. However, it wasn't long before PS2's price/value advantage disappeared for DVD.

Sony has the 'combo' this year though - BluRay + AAA Exclusive Games. The only way MS will be able to compete WW this year is through a significant price drop IMHO.
 
D

Doc Evils

Member
ZeroTolerance said:
all you guys saying it makes sense, wait for a pissed of HD DVD fan/PS Brand hater to come and prove all y'all wrong.:lol
Click to expand...


Don't worry they're too busy getting the rope and letter ready.
 
E

eznark

Banned
pswii60 said:
This all depends on what price BluRay players become later this year. If PS3+BR Remote is still the better value option, I see it working well for Sony. However, it wasn't long before PS2's price/value advantage disappeared for DVD.
Click to expand...

It was already non existant during this seasons holiday sales, there were other $400 bluray options.

That is why I think this may be mostly moot long term.
 
M

Mithos Yggdrasill

Banned
DeaconKnowledge said:
Seems reasonable.
Click to expand...

Agreed. At this point, the dismission of DVD in favor of Blu-Ray is crucial. In other words, the rapidity so that this replacement occours, will determine the future of PS3.

If this replacement will happen fast, and with fast I mean that Blu-ray has to become a reasonable part of the storage market (minimum: 20-30% or in any cases it has to be accepted by the mass market as good alternative of the classic DVD) in less then 2 years, then PS3 has a big probability to explode.
But if this transition is slow, then the sales of PS3 could still remain lower then X360 overall. The retard is more likely due to the slow penetration of HD-TV, HD-Broadcasting and the relative youthness of the format.

P.S.: the comparison with the Wii doesn't make much sense, but I doubt that the two systems affect each other or will affect each other because of that. Anyway, I doubt that PS3 will ever surpass the Wii Worldwide (at least, it is unlikely, since the userbase of Wii is the double of the PS3).
 
O

Opus Angelorum

Member
Despite the outcome, Mandy Moore is still:

avatar_90x120_hot.jpg
 
D

DenogginizerOS

BenjaminBirdie's Thomas Jefferson
I see this playing well with the readers of the Wall Street Journal and other financial investment publications and websites. People who are looking to get HD playback on their HDTVs and wouldn't mind playing a little Madden or Tiger Woods as well just got a big vote of confidence that the PS3 is a sound investment.
 
V

Vagabundo

Member
DenogginizerOS said:
DVD's upscaled using the PS3's upscaler look incredible. Either way, the PS3 is a kick-ass DVD and Blu-ray player on top of being a game console.
Click to expand...

Yeah I've seen, DVD upscale looked great on a nice big TV. Although I didn't notice much of a difference. Then again I wasn't that impressed with BR, there was a difference, but my eyes are old and rummy. DVD/Xvids suit me fine on SD TV.
 
B

Borys

Banned
Not to sound like a rabid Sony fanboy but 2008 Christmas with MGS4 and Blu-Ray is shaping up mighty fine for Sony.

Not only MGS is Sony's Halo but Microsoft already blew its load with Halo 3 last year.

Sony should take November and December by storm outselling 360 4:1 IMO.
 
F

Firewire

Banned
pswii60 said:
This all depends on what price BluRay players become later this year. If PS3+BR Remote is still the better value option, I see it working well for Sony. However, it wasn't long before PS2's price/value advantage disappeared for DVD.

Sony has the 'combo' this year though - BluRay + AAA Exclusive Games. The only way MS will be able to compete WW this year is through a significant price drop IMHO.
Click to expand...

They don't have an incentive to drive the cost of blu ray players down now, due to this war being over. I wouldn't expect to see the price come down to fast, at least not in '08.
 
Goldrusher

Goldrusher

Member
DenogginizerOS said:
DVD's upscaled using the PS3's upscaler look incredible. Either way, the PS3 is a kick-ass DVD and Blu-ray player on top of being a game console.
Click to expand...

If only every SKU played both PAL and NTSC :(

(not region 1 & 2, but simply PAL & NTSC)
 
C

Crusade

Member
Borys said:
Not to sound like a rabid Sony fanboy but 2008 Christmas with MGS4 and Blu-Ray is shaping up mighty fine for Sony.

Not only MGS is Sony's Halo but Microsoft already[/b] blew its load with Halo 3 last year.

Sony should take November and December by storm outselling 360 4:1 IMO.
Click to expand...

Looking to steal Matthew Pacheretta's job are you Borys?:lol
 
M

Mithos Yggdrasill

Banned
Borys said:
Not to sound like a rabid Sony fanboy but 2008 Christmas with MGS4 and Blu-Ray is shaping up mighty fine for Sony.

Not only MGS is Sony's Halo but Microsoft already[/b] blew its load with Halo 3 last year.

Sony should take November and December by storm outselling 360 4:1 IMO.
Click to expand...


I think that what you say is likely outside the stupid 4:1 (if you mean WW or Europe or USA, or a combination of them. Japan stimmt).
 
D

DenogginizerOS

BenjaminBirdie's Thomas Jefferson
Borys said:
Not to sound like a rabid Sony fanboy but 2008 Christmas with MGS4 and Blu-Ray is shaping up mighty fine for Sony.

Not only MGS is Sony's Halo but Microsoft already[/b] blew its load with Halo 3 last year.

Sony should take November and December by storm outselling 360 4:1 IMO.
Click to expand...

March and April of '08 are looking pretty awesome as well. Gran Turismo 5 Prologue, Grand Theft Auto 4, MLB '08, Hot Shots Golf 5, and Rainbow Six Vegas 2. Add to that a lot of solid movie releases on Blu ray and things are looking good.
 
J

JB1981

Member
DenogginizerOS said:
March and April of '08 are looking pretty awesome as well. Gran Turismo 5 Prologue, Grand Theft Auto 4, MLB '08, Hot Shots Golf 5, and Rainbow Six Vegas 2. Add to that a lot of solid movie releases on Blu ray and things are looking good.
Click to expand...
Hopefully we'll start seeing some Universal/Paramount releases in April :)
 
F

FrankT

Member
Borys said:
Not to sound like a rabid Sony fanboy but 2008 Christmas with MGS4 and Blu-Ray is shaping up mighty fine for Sony.

Not only MGS is Sony's Halo but Microsoft already[/b] blew its load with Halo 3 last year.

Sony should take November and December by storm outselling 360 4:1 IMO.
Click to expand...




Only in some kind of fantasy world. One of which that doesn't include Gears 2 which all signs point to this fall as MS's big gun. A long term and a short term boon no doubt however.
 
S

sakuragi

Banned
Really now, $400 for a Sony Playstation games console + the best Blu-ray player in the high definition movie market is a fucking steal after the news that Blu-ray became the standard format. Plus, not only does the PS3 use the Blu-ray to play movies, it is used for games as well.

I agree with Pachter that it will help the PS3 more in the long term once the PS3's price drops and its value becomes bigger and more attractive.
 
Tieno

Tieno

Member
Borys said:
Not to sound like a rabid Sony fanboy but 2008 Christmas with MGS4 and Blu-Ray is shaping up mighty fine for Sony.

Not only MGS is Sony's Halo but Microsoft already[/b] blew its load with Halo 3 last year.

Sony should take November and December by storm outselling 360 4:1 IMO.
Click to expand...

More like GT5.
 
S

Sean

Banned
10% boost is reasonable, I think it could be even higher than that especially short term since PS3 is the best deal for BR players right now.
 
C

Crusade

Member
Borys said:
Agree but in Europe only. MGS4 should be a much bigger hit than GT5 in the US.

Forgot about Gears 2 :| Make that 4:1 a 2:1 prediction.
Click to expand...
GT5 will sell 2 - 3 million in America alone
 
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