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Pachter: Expects The Order 1886 to sell around 5 million units by year's end

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Road

Member
Pacther expected Xbox One to sell 400k in the US in January. The actual sales were ~150k.

Applying the same logic to the thread title, it means 1.875 million by year's end for The Order 1886.

Although OP should have gone with the even more outrageous number: "10-12 Million If Sony Opts For A PS4 Bundle"
 
I could see it selling 2 million considering how starved next-gen is, but 5? Nah.

Before the end of the year? Sure. It'll easily hit 5 million once it's heavily discounted. People will be more willing to jump in at $20-30 than $60 and this game isn't going to hold $60 for long given what it is: a single player game with no online hooks to keep people from trading in their copy of the game.
 

Farks!

Member
My guess is that the game will get mixed reviews. Some around the 8-9 mark, others around the 5-7 mark. Is the there any research on the correlation between sales and review scores for a major title such as this one?
 

Radec

Member
tumblr_njwdhnQsuO1srbyoyo1_500.gif


Now it will just sell 1 million thanks to Pachter.
 
World-wide? Hmm... I think that's possible, if a bit unlikely. I'm thinking 3m ww by year's end if it gets good reviews and word of mouth.

Perhaps another million next year if the game gets good DLC/post-launch support.
Why not? Didn`t Watch Dogs sell 4 million copies in one week?
Very different scenario. Watch_Dogs launched on every platform under the sun, heavily marketed as a next-gen game, Ubisoft game with the word of mouth (for better or worse) that carries, etc. Or were those 4m just on PS4? I don't think that's the case.
 

TomShoe

Banned
I have no doubt in my mind it'll sell well. Unless it gets below a 70 MC rating, it has a lot of potential for long term sales. It has that style and gameplay that screams mass adoption, just like many other shooters.


Here's hoping The Order becomes a solid framework for vastly improved sequels.
 

Gamezone

Gold Member
I could see it selling 2 million considering how starved next-gen is, but 5? Nah.



How many platforms did Watch_Dogs release on again?

Ok, bad example. Killzone Shadow Fall sold 2.1 million within a few months, and that was before the big install base.
 

hamchan

Member
God of War III took 2 years to make 5.2 million. For the Order to make 5 million in a single year would be incredible.
 

TS-08

Member
Ok, bad example. Killzone Shadow Fall sold 2.1 million within a few months, and that was before the big install base.

Still a bad example, even if I do think The Order can reach 2 million. Although not massively popular, Killzone is a known entity and it benefitted from being a go to game for early adopters.
 

Sojgat

Member
I think it attaches at a pretty high rate to the install base so probably 3.5 to 4 million of the install base, and then I think it will probably attract another 1 to 2 million to buy a PlayStation 4 in the next few months.

f9Eu1.gif
 

Kacho

Member
I think The Order 1886 will be another game with extremely front loaded sales that will drop off fast. Even with bundles later in the year his estimate seems incredibly unrealistic.
 

MMaRsu

Banned
Some other Pachter predictions:

He predicted that we were in the “last generation of consoles,” before the Wii U, PS4, and Xbox One were announced. He predicted Kinect was unlikely to sell for more than $80. He promisedGrand Theft Auto V would arrive by 2010, then by 2011, then by 2012.
 
Well, that's the kiss of death if ever there was one.

In all seriousness, it'll do well, but not that well. 2.5 million sold by the end of the year is my guess.
 

DavidDesu

Member
Thing is, whatever comes from the games potential downsides, whether you believe there are or not, this game is a graphical powerhouse and when people get a glimpse of it in action it will drive sales. Everyone wants that game that really shows off their new console and this most definitely is it.

From what I've heard of preorders it should get off to a good start at least. If the game is competent and entertaining enough I don't see it doing badly at all, remember most of the super concerned folk on here don't count for much, they're probably not buying the game, or don't even have a PS4, and are just trolling for the lols and console warring nonsense. The general public will just see a stunning looking game with a level of polish and story above what's come before and will want to play it. I mean, the setting is irresistible!
 

Ishan

Junior Member
dafuq did i just read 10-12 mill .... i though the 5 mill was idiotic till i read the other part...

realistically 2 mill. tlou did 6 mill on a frigging 75 million install base with rave reviews. this is going to be a divisive game on a 20 mill install base. 1.7-2.5 mill by year end . (5 if bundled)

he general public will just see a stunning looking game with a level of polish and story above what's come before and will want to play it

are you sure? have you seen the playthoughs or played the game yourself. the other two are true tho this game is insane graphics wise and very polished. And yes it has already been pre ordering very strongly.
 

AHA-Lambda

Member
Guys, you're ignoring the best part of the OP.

Pachter is confident that Sony will keep on selling PS4s and if they bundle it up with the console, The Order: 1886 may even sell close to 10-12 million copies.
 

Steel

Banned
Ok, bad example. Killzone Shadow Fall sold 2.1 million within a few months, and that was before the big install base.

That doesn't prove your point either way. Killzone shadowfall was one of the only non-broken multiplayer games around at the time, so it would probably sell more than The Order if it was released now.

Watch_Dogs was a better comparison, but you'd have to figure out how much it sold on PS4 alone.
 

Portugeezer

Member
I can see it being a future bundled game, so it will do well.

That doesn't prove your point either way. Killzone shadowfall was one of the only non-broken multiplayer games around at the time, so it would probably sell more than The Order if it was released now.

You are implying people play Killzone Shadowfall's multiplayer...
 
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