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[brandonnn]

Gamasutra has posted its most recent podcast, this week with Michael Pachter, who during the course of the interview said of NeoGAF:

"I publish my monthly console and handheld hardware numbers because the NeoGAF guys think it's so fun," says Pachter of the infamous messageboard. "But no one's ever asked to see my annual forecast for all those things. I'm spot on, for my annual forecast. I'd love to see those guys put out a contest for annual forecasts for the next five years and then we'll compare my numbers to theirs, because I've been spot on for five or six years now."

"The average NeoGAF visitor isn't equipped to actually prepare those things," says the analyst, "because it requires you to make an assumption about pricing, and I've been great on that as well. It's hard to do."

Other highlights from the podcast!

On grabbing headlines:

"I don't solicit all this press coverage. The press finds me. I think that the press finds me because I'm colorful, I'm not shy, I have an opinion and I frankly really don't care if someone agrees or disagrees with it. I'm willing to share."

"The controversy - the invective - that I get comes primarily from the games industry people always writing me emails and asking me, 'what do you think about this?' You know, 'What do you think when one of your competitors said "something"'. I wrote back [saying] that the guy was naive. And boy, headline: 'Pachter calls other analyst naive.' Today someone asked me, 'What do you think about the Sega marketing guy saying the Wii is a fad?,' and I responded. Boy, headline."

On next-gen pricing being 'too low':

"I'm just making an economic argument, not so much a suggestion," says Pachter. "[Prices of next-gen games] aren't going up. You're seeing collectors editions at $70 -- you're seeing the GTA collector's at $90. Guitar Hero -- $90. People don't even blink. They stand in line for the thing."

"I just meant that the public is willing to spend more for the content that they want," he adds. "Again, adjusted for inflation, the old PSone game in 1995 that came out at $49.99 would be probably about 70 bucks right now. It's just that, at 3 percent inflation compounded for the last 12 years, you'd be up over $70. On an 'apples to apples' basis, $60 is a bargain. And the content of a PS3 game is a lot greater, or an Xbox 360 game, than the content of the first generation PSone games."

On internet mud-slings:

"The only comment I've gotten lately that really hurt was somebody on GameTrailers posting a comment that I need to lay off the chili cheese fries. And I looked at myself and thought, boy you are a fat ass. So that really bothered me, but it's true, so what are you going to do? I definitely like those chili cheese fries too, so haven't had 'em since!"

Listen here: http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=14424

 

[bud]

PATCHER: YOUDONTGETIT.JPG

 

[Threi]

:lol

 

[Mac the KNife]

Oh yeah...no one on NeoGaf ever thinks of price...

 

[TekunoRobby]

You are a winner Michael Pachter, we salute you.

 

[sprsk]

/me Waits to see if he posts in this thread

 

[Imperial Hot]

THIS JUST IN: NEOGAF USERS ARE INCAPABLE OF FINDING THE AVERAGE OF A GROUP OF NUMBERS

MORE AT 11

 

[EviLore]

Infamous :wink

 

[saelz8]

Show your face Pachter

 

[RiskyChris]

Didn't Margaret Patcher predict the PS3 dominating over the next five years?

 

[Threi]

:lol @ title change

this thread has "legend" written all over it

 

[Amir0x]

I agree with Patcher.

 

[Kolgar]

My mom once said if you can't say anything nice, don't say anything at all.

...

 

[ZeoVGM]

What a pretentious ass.

 

[Firewire]

he didn't...

 

[Corwood Rep]

Hey guys, you ever hear the story of "Michael Pachter's a moron?"

Michael Pachter's a moron. They all lived happily ever after.

The End.

 

[Mesijs]

Ehm, now he's saying he's always right and about that Bully game he admitted himself he was wrong...


And by the way, this guy seems really anti-Take Two. All his forecasts draw some sort of doomsday scenario for T2. He even predicted that GTA IV wouldn't sell well. :lol

 

[Busty]

If Pachter comes in here and gives us his predictions for E3 that would result in a 50 page thread all will be forgiven and we can be friends again.




I'm just kidding.

Spoiler

I'm not kidding

 

[GDJustin]

This topic is going to be AWESOME, I can already tell.

But before it gets nuts I'd just like to say... wait for it...

he's absolutely right.

Have any of you actually SEEN one of the research notes Pachter sends out on any of the companies he tracks? They're insane. He doesn't just throw out predictions for 360 sales. That's like 10% of his job.

He spends his days determining, with a pretty good degree of certainty, where, say, Midway stock is going to be in 8 months. GAF could make guesses at it, but they'd be just that. Guesses.

 

[bishoptl]

Didn't Margaret Patcher predict the PS3 dominating over the next five years?

"If you lead a company like Sony, a strong company, a company which has taken a lead in gaming affairs in good times and in bad, a company that is always reliable, then you have to have a touch of iron about you."

 

[Barbacoatl]

but his numbers ARE fun

 

[ZeoVGM]

And by the way, this guy seems really anti-Take Two. All his forecasts draw some sort of doomsday scenario for T2. He even predicted that GTA IV wouldn't sell well. :lol

Well, I'm willing to bet GTA4 sells less than the last 3 on PS2.

 

[Jamesfrom818]

Is it just me or does anyone else think that Pachter's bosses noticed that GAF's collective predictions have been closer than their own professional analyst.

 

[usea]

I approve of the title change.

 

[bud]

evilore/amir0x, does patcher post here. what's his nick?

 

[Jiguryo]

NeoGAF = Wedbush Morgowned

 

[Akia]

Alright we need to start a GAF Swat Team to do annual forecasts for the next 5 years.

 

[EternalGamer]

Thanks for the head's up about the interview. I'll definitely give it a listen. I've always liked Pachter. Unlike most analysts, he is very knowledgeable about the industry and puts this knowledge to good use when making his predictions. And, unlike most posters on gaming websites, he is both considerate and articulate in the way he expresses this knowledge.

 

[ZeoVGM]

GAF could make guesses at it, but they'd be just that. Guesses.

Much like him.

 

[Meier]

The salicious headline drew me in. Good title change.

 

[MechDX]

Youre all a bunch of morans!!

 

[ElectricBlue187]

holy christ Pachter. ho-ly christ.

 

[Burai]

Didn't Margaret Patcher predict the PS3 dominating over the next five years?

Didn't GAF predict that Nintendo would go third party by now?

 

[superbank]

Your predictions are still wrong.

 

[Omar Ismail]

It's the difference between being a CFA and a DeVry graduate.

That being said, he is pretty off about a lot of things. And referencing your track record for the past 7 years where the industry was ridiculously predictable isn't very difficult. It's when you can make accurate predictions when the market is tumultuous that is valuable!

 

[ElectricBlue187]

Didn't GAF predict that Nintendo would go third party by now?

^OMG I FOUND PACHTER

 

[Mesijs]

Well, I'm willing to bet GTA4 sells less than the last 3 on PS2.

In the long run, maybe not.

And he said this because of other stupid reasons like Halo 3 and such.

 

[milanbaros]

GAF could make guesses at it, but they'd be just that. Guesses.

If our guesses are more acurate than his guesses then his method don't mean shit.

 

[Threi]

oh b4 i forget - i overheard Pachter talking about our mothers.

 

[Firewire]

I'm predicting war :lol

 

[Firestorm]

Come on Sales-Age, put together a contest team! You were challenged!

 

[Tim the Wiz]

Hmm, I want chilli cheese fries now.

 

[TekunoRobby]

I love this thread already. Excellent title change.

It's time for a dance-off Sales-Age

 

[dextran]

Even a stopped clock shows the right time twice a day.

 

[bud]

*edit*

oh :lol

 

[Cheesemeister]

"I publish my monthly console and handheld hardware numbers because the NeoGAF guys think it's so fun," says Pachter of the infamous messageboard. "But no one's ever asked to see my annual forecast for all those things. I'm spot on, for my annual forecast. I'd love to see those guys put out a contest for annual forecasts for the next five years and then we'll compare my numbers to theirs, because I've been spot on for five or six years now."

"The average NeoGAF visitor isn't equipped to actually prepare those things," says the analyst, "because it requires you to make an assumption about pricing, and I've been great on that as well. It's hard to do."

Sounds like a challenge. Who's up for it? I'd be happy to run everyone's numbers through a parser if we can agree on the particulars for the numbers to put together.

 

[TheRipDizz]

He can say he makes great predictions for the long term, but that's after adding in his monthly correction adjustment of a few hundred thousand consoles over a period of time to see where the mean is. In other words he's full of shit.

 

[calder]

I'm a bit worried that a thread with *this* much legendary potential as it develops can't help but disappoint. I mean, I read the title, I see the quotes, and I'm imagining 3000 posts in a day, SuperKyro+o.p.a meltdown+$599 all rolled into one. Expectations are sky-high for this shit, don't drop the ball GAF. And someone get ready with the MIDIs.

 

[..pakbeka..]

FORUM WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAR


where's the sales-age elite? we need to arm our troopers

 

[Jive Turkey]

/me Waits to see if he posts in this thread

Wait...Pachter has a GAF account???