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Pachter: NeoGAF 'Too Goddamned Beautiful' To Do Actual Forecasts

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EternalGamer said:
Thanks for the head's up about the interview. I'll definitely give it a listen. I've always liked Pachter. Unlike most analysts, he is very knowledgeable about the industry and puts this knowledge to good use when making his predictions. And, unlike most posters on gaming websites, he is both considerate and articulate in the way he expresses this knowledge.
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Mike, is that you?
 
Tim the Wiz said:
Hmm, I want chilli cheese fries now.
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Don't get me started. All I've eaten today was a salad.

As to the topic at hand... I predict at least 12 pages of awesome*.







*Figures include 100% margin of error.
 
I just thought of what a Sales-Age team means. Sales is GAF's sport. It'd be like being a hockey player in Canada, or a football player in the USA, or a soccer/football player in Europe/South America!

Autographs! Fame! Fortune!
 
One has to be defensive when in such a competitive job market as Making Clueless Assumptions and Backpedaling Like A Maniac When Inevitably Proven Wrong. I mean, plenty of people are qualified for that.
 
He's off by as much as several hundred thousand on an individial system each month, yet his annual forecasts (which he never reveals) are allegedly always spot-on? :lol
 
Burai said:
Didn't GAF predict that Nintendo would go third party by now?
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neogaf_dude.gif
 
So he can predict a whole year, but not a whole month? And what's the range of +- that qualifies as spot on?
 
as one of the many people who beat Pachter's predictions last month, all i can say is he's just trying to keep his job.

i should get paid too. and i should get industry sources, and have a huge firm back my efforts.
 
I'd have to somewhat agree with Pachter... over 80% of neogafs on here aren't equipped, qualified, or informed enough to accurately do the job he does.

If anything, we're the ones being pretentious, naive and arrogant thinking we can outperform a man who spent 4-6 years studying the job he does now. Its like saying we all can make better videogames than a lead designer at SquareEnix.

If he gets things wrong, so be it. I'm sure Einstein, Newton, Galileo and such were wrong too, but you didn't see a bunch of uptight young humans insulting them at bars about how "I could think up a better Theory of Relativity/Laws of Physics than that idiot!!!one"

And no, ebfore anyone says so, I'm not likening Pachter to those 3. It's the concept of quit trying to think you're better at a job someone has prepared themselves for. 1 out of 15 people could be, but the majority would fall flat on their face
 
The one and only said:
The only comment I've gotten lately that really hurt was somebody on GameTrailers posting a comment that I need to lay off the chili cheese fries. And I looked at myself and thought, boy you are a fat ass. So that really bothered me, but it's true, so what are you going to do? I definitely like those chili cheese fries too, so haven't had 'em since!
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:lol

<3
 
"I'm spot on, for my annual forecast. I'd love to see those guys put out a contest for annual forecasts for the next five years and then we'll compare my numbers to theirs, because I've been spot on for five or six years now."
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this is funny cause there's not much guess work involved in annual forecasts since they are already provided by the manufacturers
 
Cheesemeister said:
Sounds like a challenge. Who's up for it? I'd be happy to run everyone's numbers through a parser if we can agree on the particulars for the numbers to put together.
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When you do the PR for it, don't forget to put in buzzwords and journalistic "color" such as "respectively" to make yourself out to be smarter than you are. Don't be shy and go against the numbers by saying "Wii is a fad" too...can't be an analyst without that!
 
LanceStern said:
I'd have to somewhat agree with Pachter... over 80% of neogafs on here aren't equipped, qualified, or informed enough to accurately do the job he does.

If anything, we're the ones being pretentious, naive and arrogant thinking we can outperform a man who spent 4-6 years studying the job he does now. Its like saying we all can make better videogames than a lead designer at SquareEnix
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Totally the same situation.
 
GDJustin said:
This topic is going to be AWESOME, I can already tell.

But before it gets nuts I'd just like to say... wait for it...

he's absolutely right.

Have any of you actually SEEN one of the research notes Pachter sends out on any of the companies he tracks? They're insane. He doesn't just throw out predictions for 360 sales. That's like 10% of his job.

He spends his days determining, with a pretty good degree of certainty, where, say, Midway stock is going to be in 8 months. GAF could make guesses at it, but they'd be just that. Guesses.
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shhh!! don't ruin the party.
 
"Its like saying we all can make better videogames than a lead designer at SquareEnix"


*Looks at SquareEnix's output recently*


Probably not that tough.
 
Last I checked he was at 192 out of 200 odd predictions submitted in the last month. If he's spot on annually, he might be making it up for it elsewhere.

But to be fair he's only been publishing his estimates for 3 months? 4 months?

Pachter, we love you!
 
LanceStern said:
I'd have to somewhat agree with Pachter... over 80% of neogafs on here aren't equipped, qualified, or informed enough to accurately do the job he does.

If anything, we're the ones being pretentious, naive and arrogant thinking we can outperform a man who spent 4-6 years studying the job he does now. Its like saying we all can make better videogames than a lead designer at SquareEnix.

If he gets things wrong, so be it. I'm sure Einstein, Newton, Galileo and such were wrong too, but you didn't see a bunch of uptight young humans insulting them at bars about how "I could think up a better Theory of Relativity/Laws of Physics than that idiot!!!one"

And no, ebfore anyone says so, I'm not likening Pachter to those 3. It's the concept of quit trying to think you're better at a job someone has prepared themselves for. 1 out of 15 people could be, but the majority would fall flat on their face
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Bullshit. Predictions is just giving numbers... We can all give numbers... maybe he can do it a bit better than others... but still.

This is NOT A GOOD comparison.
 
LanceStern said:
I'd have to somewhat agree with Pachter... over 80% of neogafs on here aren't equipped, qualified, or informed enough to accurately do the job he does.

If anything, we're the ones being pretentious, naive and arrogant thinking we can outperform a man who spent 4-6 years studying the job he does now. Its like saying we all can make better videogames than a lead designer at SquareEnix
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If that lead Square-Enix designer routinly put out broken flash games, you may have a worthy point. May have.
 
It's the common (and sensible, which is why so many people don't listen to it) practice that you dont' go walking into a job with a committee of veterans that have been there for 25 years and say you can and have been doing a better job so they will all listen to you.

You get up, do some work for a while and prove yourself, then let your WORKS talk for you in profit, efficiency and accuracy. You don't sit back and insult someone doing their job for years because you think you can guess your way through the job.

You'd be insulted worse than Pacther is now
 
I've always liked Pachter and respect the guys opinions, I think all the abuse he gets on these boards is generated by armchair analysts who don't have a clue. If you did you'd have his job.
 
Is he really that far off in saying this? Sure the Sales Age hardcore types beat him in predictions more often than not, but Sales Age != 80% of the visitors to GAF. There are a lot of dumbasses/fanboys on GAF who would probably not be able to out predict him.

So remember Sale Age Defense Force != 80% of GAF.
 
LanceStern said:
I'd have to somewhat agree with Pachter... over 80% of neogafs on here aren't equipped, qualified, or informed enough to accurately do the job he does.

If anything, we're the ones being pretentious, naive and arrogant thinking we can outperform a man who spent 4-6 years studying the job he does now. Its like saying we all can make better videogames than a lead designer at SquareEnix.
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Then explain how 80% of GAF consistently beat his predictions. He should be a lot better than us, but the thing is that he isn't.
 
Jokeropia said:
Then explain how 80% of GAF consistently beat his predictions. He should be a lot better than us, but the thing is that he isn't.
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80% of GAF isn't involved in Sales Age. I'd be willing to guess its around 5% of GAF TOPS that is actively and consistently involved in Sales Age. The remaining 95% either doesn't care or isn't too stupid to guess at it.
 
bluemax said:
Is he really that far off in saying this? Sure the Sales Age hardcore types beat him in predictions more often than not, but Sales Age != 80% of the visitors to GAF. There are a lot of dumbasses/fanboys on GAF who would probably not be able to out predict him.

So remember Sale Age Defense Force != 80% of GAF.
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That goes without saying, but that SADF is who he was refering to. Who else calls the guy out? C'mon dude.
 
Patcher is just predicting hardware numbers like the rest of us, and he publishes those to have some fun i guess. He is as right as anybody else for that matter. On the other hand, his real job is software numbers and industry analysis, which i hear hes quite good at.
 
Chris_C said:
I've always liked Pachter and respect the guys opinions, I think all the abuse he gets on these boards is generated by armchair analysts who don't have a clue. If you did you'd have his job.
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I'd like to see how most people here would do his job, which is not just making random predictions. You may be able to predict sales for a month, but you probably couldn't do other parts of his job.

ksamedi said:
Patcher is just predicting hardware numbers like the rest of us, and he publishes those to have some fun i guess. He is as right as anybody else for that matter. On the other hand, his real job is software numbers and industry analysis, which i hear hes quite good at.
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Winner.
 
Mesijs said:
Bullshit. Predictions is just giving numbers... We can all give numbers... maybe he can do it a bit better than others... but still.

This is NOT A GOOD comparison.
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Are you kidding me?

First off, watch your language PLEASE.

Secondly, you can't just guess these numbers for years and expect to go somewhere in life and a job. We can all make up some silly equation that works too, but that doesn't make it as useful or effective as say a limit of a function or derivatives.

We should find a job we're good at, take teh 4-5 years to get the degrees and learning we need to have some credibility, and THEN try and DO (NOT SAY WE CAN DO, BUT ACTUALLY DO) a better job.

Quit insulting Pachter for doing his job.
 
GAF GOLD: "You'll be able to walk into any store without a pre-order and pick up a Wii off the shelf no problem"
 
GAF doesn't even know what pachter does for a living. This topic is hilarious.

"Pachter is an idiot. Oh... he spends his time putting together stock guidance? Wait... what the hell is a P/E ratio?" :lol :lol

The same people in this topic talking so much shit are the same ones that probably don't know which companies are publically traded and which aren't.
 
So each of Pachter's monthly predictions are way off, therefore his annual predictions are 'spot on'. Put up or shut up Pachter. I'm pretty sure we've already had a thread where Gaffers posted their annual US predictions.
 
LanceStern said:
Are you kidding me?

First off, watch your language PLEASE.

Secondly, you can't just guess these numbers for years and expect to go somewhere in life and a job. We can all make up some silly equation that works too, but that doesn't make it as useful or effective as say a limit of a function or derivatives.

We should find a job we're good at, take teh 4-5 years to get the degrees and learning we need to have some credibility, and THEN try and DO (NOT SAY WE CAN DO, BUT ACTUALLY DO) a better job.

Quit insulting Pachter for doing his job.
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Why should we respect Pachter? We should respect Pachter because of calculus.
 
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