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Pachter on PS5: Bets on 2020 launch now, PS4 Pro to become "default PS4"

Bitch Pudding

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Oct 3, 2014
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Asked in the 1099 Podcast Episode 108 on when PS5 is going to launch (my transcript is not "1:1"!) Analyst Michael Pachter answered:

If I had to bet I'd say 2020. Sony is making so much money on PS4. They'll milk it (sic) as long as they can take it. The natural extension is that the PS4 Pro just becomes the default PS4.

PS5 is probably becoming their real 4K device, wont start selling it before PS4 sales decline. If PS4 sales slow down in 2019, they'll probably launch it in 2020."
https://soundcloud.com/the1099/episode-108-michael-pachter-on-xbox-one-x-sales-the-switchs-future-and-console-exclusives

(go to minute 47)

Frankly, that podcast is already 2 weeks old. The latest thread on NeoGAF I could find on this issue however is the one from July.


I'll stick with my 2019 prediction then...

Also PS4 Pro becoming default PS4 is nonsense from my point of view; Slim PS4 will be the cheapest to produce PS4 SKU in the upcoming years with immense ecomony of scale effects.
 

RoboPlato

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Oct 29, 2006
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I think we'll see a PS4 super slim that may not have a disk drive as the cheapest option with a Pro Slim taking the price point of the current Slim at some point.
 

Nightengale

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Jun 12, 2013
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Prediction:

No change in platform sales strategy from current-gen.

PS5 will be PS5. The base model for a new gen... just as PS4 was.

PS4 and PS4 Pro will continue to be sold even with PS5's release... just as PS3 was.

3-4 years into PS5 generation will introduce mid-gen upgrade, PS5 Pro. Same as PS4 Pro, there will be no exclusives and is merely a more powerful version of the base new-gen console.

Pro devices will never be default.
 

anexanhume

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Apr 2, 2013
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I could see a 50/50 split for 2019 or 2020. A lot of it will depend more on how the hardware they want is developing versus the actual market conditions. You can't start making a console a year before you ship it.


I don't think the PS4 can sustain to 2025.
Nor do you sit on a complete console design for a year because the PS4 is still doing great.
 

Electret

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May 14, 2014
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2020 makes sense not only in terms of Sony maximizing PS4's super profitable lifespan, but also in terms of silicon availability. 7nm should be far more capable of mass production at reasonable prices than it will be in 2019.

I don't see Pro ever becoming the default SKU, though.
 

eFKac

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Nov 13, 2014
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Until the Pro can be manufactured cheaper than the Slim it will become the main SKU and by the time this could potentially happen, both will be phased out by the PS5.

I think PS5 will launch either 2019 or 2020 depending on whether Xbx catches on which I think it won't, otherwise no reason not to ride out this gen, cashing in the profits.
 

Obliterator

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Apr 21, 2015
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I agree, I think the system has been pushed back until 2020. I thought 2019 would be the launch for a while but with PS4 just now peaking this year I could see them wanting to give PS4 a bit more room to breath.

2019 is still possible though of course
 

Hesemonni

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With how the memory prices are progressing nobody of us is going to be able to afford the damn thing.

'Cept maybe for EvoX.
 

digitalrelic

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My guess is 2020 as well. 2019 would be too soon.

I'd imagine that we'll probably see less of a substantial GPU upgrade compared to past generations, but a massive CPU upgrade. This could lead to LOTS of fun new directions.
 
Sep 4, 2015
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Prediction:

No change in platform sales strategy from current-gen.

PS5 will be PS5. The base model for a new gen... just as PS4 was.

PS4 and PS4 Pro will continue to be sold even with PS5's release... just as PS3 was.

3-4 years into PS5 generation will introduce mid-gen upgrade, PS5 Pro. Same as PS4 Pro, there will be no exclusives and is merely a more powerful version of the base new-gen console.

Pro devices will never be default.
One and done.
 

RoboPlato

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Oct 29, 2006
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I could see a 50/50 split for 2019 or 2020. A lot of it will depend more on how the hardware they want is developing versus the actual market conditions. You can't start making a console a year before you ship it.
This is my take on it too. If the date is 2020 that's more because of the technology required to produce it than anything else.

I think 2019 is likely the planned goal date but it may not happen due to die shrinks, power requirements, etc
 

score01

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I have a feeling in my waters for a 2019 launch.

Essentially a new PS console every three years with the best tech available for a £399 at that time.
 
Aug 19, 2006
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The Pro needs to sell more than the slim before that starts happening, maybe in a year or so they could start phasing out the slim but I'm not sure it'll ever happen.
 

Bitch Pudding

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Until the Pro can be manufactured cheaper than the Slim it will become the main SKU and by the time this could potentially happen, both will be phased out by the PS5.

I think PS5 will launch either 2019 or 2020 depending on whether Xbx catches on which I think it won't, otherwise no reason not to ride out this gen, cashing in the profits.
I'll think Pachter is right when he sais they'll introduce PS5 as soon as PS4 platform sales steadily go down (on a YOY base) - independent from XBOX One's (platform) performance. It think that could happen anywhere between 2019 and 2021.
 

dragonyeuw

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Dec 18, 2014
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Ps1 1994
Ps2 2000
Ps3 2006
Ps4 2013

Based on the above, 2020 would give the Ps4 a seven year cycle. And yeah, by that point the Pro is probably a $200-250 machine( likely a slim revision) which they can position as their 'budget' system with a $400-450 Ps5 with full BC.

I don't think either prediction is going out on a limb.
 

THE:MILKMAN

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Mar 31, 2006
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For us to determine what year it is more likely to launch we need more info from insiders.....

Just how much detail have Sony shared with devs (if they have at all!) so far and how does it compare time frame wise to PS4?

We need leaks, basically.
 

mjc

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It'll be late 2019 or 2020 I'd agree. They'll make a slim Pro before anything.
 

Obliterator

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This is my take on it too. If the date is 2020 that's more because of the technology required to produce it than anything else.

I think 2019 is likely the planned goal date but it may not happen due to die shrinks, power requirements, etc
I think it's a mixture of both. I think 2019 was the original plan but market conditions play a role in it moving to 2020.

Holiday 2019 is still 2 full years out and I think the decision was made a bit back anyways. That's plenty of time to maneuver your strategy both in terms of tech as well as market conditions
 

BDGAME

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In 2020 will be the launch of Avatar 2 and glasses free 3D Movie theater.

This means a reborn of the 3D too.

Sony will love to sell as many "3D without glasses" TVs as they can.

So, I can see they create a new console to help sell that new technology.
 

Zukkoyaki

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May 17, 2014
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I've always thought 2020. It's hard to look at all the games coming out next year and beyond and all the devs that we know are toiling away on something and think next gen starts in only two years.
 

HStallion

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Nov 23, 2015
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In 2020 will be the launch of Avatar 2 and glasses free 3D Movie theater.

This means a reborn of the 3D too.

Sony will love to sell as many "3D without glasses" TVs as they can.

So, I can see they create a new console to help sell that new technology.
They'll launch the successor to their VR head set instead.
 

Blanquito

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I could see a 50/50 split for 2019 or 2020. A lot of it will depend more on how the hardware they want is developing versus the actual market conditions. You can't start making a console a year before you ship it.


I don't think the PS4 can sustain to 2025.
Would they be developing several different models and then choose one based on the year that they decide to release? Or how does stuff like this generally work?

Eg a “2019” model and a “2020” model, both of which reach the targeted price point in those years?
 

Electret

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AMD has the best APUs on the market and a Zen2 APU with an embeded rx760 would be prety realistic by 2020 and magnitudes more powerfull than the PS4 pro
Yeah, I'm not getting the concern. A Zen CPU is going to be a huge upgrade, and I'm confident they can hit a minimum of 10 TF for the GPU. That's more than enough GPU grunt, particularly for the more technically inclined developers. Is a 10x increase over PS4 really necessary? I don't think so, especially if reconstruction techniques continue to be embraced.
 

SatoAilDarko

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If there's a chance to get a year head-start Microsoft should take it in 2019.

It's their best chance to regain some market share.