-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Pachter thinks that gamepass can reach 200 million users in the next 10 years.
- Thread starter Spyxos
- Start date
Sorcerer
Member
In ten years Gamepass (if it even exists) will probably cost at least $100 a month. Nice safe statement by Patcher because no one will remember he said it ten years down the line and he will be retired from game consultation.
What the hell is Microsoft even doing? After all this time only Diablo is the only Activision game on the service?
What the hell is Microsoft even doing? After all this time only Diablo is the only Activision game on the service?
Last edited:
SmokedMeat
Gamer™
That’s a big number, but in 10yrs there won’t be an Xbox anyways. If they can get Game Pass on every smart TV and phone/tablet as an app? They might put up some big numbers.
Klayzer
Member
Always a "it might be" or "it could be" scenarios. They need results now, to stop their platform's decline. No disrespect to your opinions, but we here that type of rhetoric from Xbox constantly.
SmokedMeat
Gamer™
The topic is pure speculation, so it’s obviously going to be what might or could happen.
There’s no magic switch that can make Xbox suddenly desirable among gamers. The platform will likely continue to decline until it exists solely as a service - which is what Microsoft seems focused on. I don’t think they care about selling a plastic box anymore.
aliadiere25
Member
Wasn't it Microsoft who confirmed the numbers?
Yes, he's a silly goose. MS themselves confirmed it included GP Core users.
mckmas8808
Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Makes you wonder what the budget MS has to set aside every year to bribe people to lie like this.
It's hard to believe a person can be this bad at their job.
darrylgorn
Member
The Pachter Prediction Principle states that for every prediction Michael Pachter makes, the opposite occurrence to such a prediction is guaranteed to happen.
Goalus
Member
A lot of Sony shills made fools out of themselves in general back then.
The artful mincer
Member
Free to play games seem to be Game Pass biggest hurdle to overcome.
I've known casual PlayStation 4 owners that haven't purchased a single game or micro transaction yet have hundreds maybe thousands of hours on Warzone.
How's Microsoft meant to convince the average Fortnite player to pay money to try a bunch of werid indies or AA games?
Ironically it's the hardcore gamers like neogaf that Gamepass is probably the most appealing to yet most of them seem to hate Microsoft!
I've known casual PlayStation 4 owners that haven't purchased a single game or micro transaction yet have hundreds maybe thousands of hours on Warzone.
How's Microsoft meant to convince the average Fortnite player to pay money to try a bunch of werid indies or AA games?
Ironically it's the hardcore gamers like neogaf that Gamepass is probably the most appealing to yet most of them seem to hate Microsoft!
DeltaPolarBear
Member
It was even worse before Aug of 2022; Microsoft was forcing players to pay for Xbox Gold in order to access Free To Play games.Free to play games seem to be Game Pass biggest hurdle to overcome.
I've known casual PlayStation 4 owners that haven't purchased a single game or micro transaction yet have hundreds maybe thousands of hours on Warzone.
How's Microsoft meant to convince the average Fortnite player to pay money to try a bunch of werid indies or AA games?
Ironically it's the hardcore gamers like neogaf that Gamepass is probably the most appealing to yet most of them seem to hate Microsoft!
Date when they changed it:
Sony and Nintendo knew from years ago that they can make MORE money, by making Free To Plays games more accessable. Xbox for some reason refused to let go of that and did not change their mind until very recently. You were in fact paying a monthly fee to play Fortnite if you play on Xbox. While Sony does not.
It was very stupid on Xbox's part and who knows why it took so long to change this.
Killjoy-NL
Member
It can barely keep 30M subs.
Last edited:
Disco Dave
Member
Any wonder this guys a meme. Hope he didn't get paid for that.
The artful mincer
Member
Wow I didn't know that lol!
No, they laughed at his stupid takes on it. Those takes included things like "carving out the UK" and "agreeing not to increase the price of gamepass for 10 years". Nobody laughed at the fact of it ultimately going through. They might have laughed at the fact that he expected it not to be blocked on several occasions though before the concessions.
Pachter is a shit analyst. The fact that he even contemplated that gamepass should have hit 75M when you add 25M gamepass users to 50M XLG users should tell you everything. As if 0 gamepass users were playing online. The fact that he thinks XLG users remained static for 5 years is complete nonsense too. He's a complete hack.
King Dazzar
Member
200m isnt realistic as everyone knows. But bring about an ad infested free tier and it might go somewhere. They're going to have to sort out brand confidence and getting it onto other platforms first though.
Mibu no ookami
Member
Focusing on his analysis, I want to focus on how he misunderstands how Netflix and GamePass are not the same thing and why they never will be.
Netflix was initially able to license television shows (largely shows that had already aired, primarily in syndication). Why is this important? Because when shows go to syndication, they basically go to whatever channel wants them historically. They also got some exclusive rights to popular (but older) shows.
Netflix acquired the rights to Friends in 2015. The last episode of Friends aired in 2004. 11 years after it ended...
Gaming doesn't work like this, because the current model of gaming isn't like cable. You're not replacing one subscription with another. Gaming is like pay per view, particularly pay per view live events. Seldom do you go back and rewatch a live event. Game catalogs aren't worth nearly as much as tv catalogs, because rarely do people go back and play the same game. Live Service is changing that, but no live service games want to be on GamePass when they can survive on their own just fine.
The deal for Friends costs 100 million dollars initially. At renewal the costs jumped to 500 million and HBO bought it out from under them. Microsoft would have to spend 10s of billions of dollars on content, if not 100s of billions of dollars on content and they would still fail to get 200 million subscribers because the cost-subscription ratio will never make sense in gaming.
How much did Netflix cost when it was doing 100 million dollar deals to get friends? No more than 14 dollars a month and even then Netflix was quickly trying to pivot to original content. House of Cards came out in 2013. As did Orange is the New Black. 2016 brought Stranger Things.
Netflix was able to be cheaper than cable by a lot and give just enough content to keep you interested and subscribing.
Netlfix was also on smart devices and smart TVs. That you already had or cheap to buy. Consoles are a large barrier of entry.
Even if Microsoft can get streaming working flawlessly, you still have to sell someone a controller. You still have to buy content and resell it for significantly less.
Netflix was initially able to license television shows (largely shows that had already aired, primarily in syndication). Why is this important? Because when shows go to syndication, they basically go to whatever channel wants them historically. They also got some exclusive rights to popular (but older) shows.
Netflix acquired the rights to Friends in 2015. The last episode of Friends aired in 2004. 11 years after it ended...
Gaming doesn't work like this, because the current model of gaming isn't like cable. You're not replacing one subscription with another. Gaming is like pay per view, particularly pay per view live events. Seldom do you go back and rewatch a live event. Game catalogs aren't worth nearly as much as tv catalogs, because rarely do people go back and play the same game. Live Service is changing that, but no live service games want to be on GamePass when they can survive on their own just fine.
The deal for Friends costs 100 million dollars initially. At renewal the costs jumped to 500 million and HBO bought it out from under them. Microsoft would have to spend 10s of billions of dollars on content, if not 100s of billions of dollars on content and they would still fail to get 200 million subscribers because the cost-subscription ratio will never make sense in gaming.
How much did Netflix cost when it was doing 100 million dollar deals to get friends? No more than 14 dollars a month and even then Netflix was quickly trying to pivot to original content. House of Cards came out in 2013. As did Orange is the New Black. 2016 brought Stranger Things.
Netflix was able to be cheaper than cable by a lot and give just enough content to keep you interested and subscribing.
Netlfix was also on smart devices and smart TVs. That you already had or cheap to buy. Consoles are a large barrier of entry.
Even if Microsoft can get streaming working flawlessly, you still have to sell someone a controller. You still have to buy content and resell it for significantly less.
LordCBH
Member
If I remember right, it was at 25 million, then they merged 11 million Gold subscribers into it by rebranding as “Gamepass Core” and had 35 million. So they lost a million lol
Thick Thighs Save Lives
Gold Member
According to Statista there were 260 million Netflix subscribers in Q4 2023 and Patcher thinks GP will get to 200M in the next 10 years? I won't be writing a whole paragraph about how this prediction is frankly bonkers, so I'll just mention that games are simply not consumed in the same passive way as movies and TV shows are so I just can't see it happen ever, even if MS somehow manages to put Game Pass on every device possible, including PS and the next Switch.
Last edited:
Little Chicken
Member
Sounds 100% accurate to me 
Mibu no ookami
Member
The only way GamePass will have 200 million subscribers is if GamePass fundamentally changes in the nature of what it is.
Like there would have to be a five dollar tier or even a dollar tier. Mobile game subscriptions e.t.c. e.t.c.
It would have to become something more akin to Apple Arcade and even Apple Arcade isn't hitting 200 million.
Men_in_Boxes
Snake Oil Salesman
Free to play games seem to be Game Pass biggest hurdle to overcome.
I've known casual PlayStation 4 owners that haven't purchased a single game or micro transaction yet have hundreds maybe thousands of hours on Warzone.
How's Microsoft meant to convince the average Fortnite player to pay money to try a bunch of werid indies or AA games?
Ironically it's the hardcore gamers like neogaf that Gamepass is probably the most appealing to yet most of them seem to hate Microsoft!
This isn't being said enough.
As the industry invests more and more into GAAS, GamePass will struggle more and more. Next few years will be a bloodbath.
The artful mincer
Member
Is Game Pass even a good deal for a Call of Duty player that plays nothing elese?
Similar threads
- Locked