• Hey Guest. Check out your NeoGAF Wrapped 2025 results here!

Pachter: Wii U is Nintendo's Dreamcast

Status
Not open for further replies.
OEw3I.png

Any way we can get this with Sega on there too?
 
It's OK if Pachter believes that Wii U isn't going to be a success (I can see that happening) but, considering the reasons behind Dreamcast's failure, the comparison between the two is extremely stupid.
 
I don't see why it's so wrong. You guys are basing the possible success of the U off of what they accomplished with the Wii. I don't think they can do it twice. 2 reasons. The current Wii is TANKING. as in dying tanking while the hd twins truck along. Couple that with the fact that ms or Sony can launch a tech showcase right as WiiU unveils, and announce a price and launch window right as the U launches. If people are already jumping on the ps360 bandwagon, why WOULDNT they wait for the next big thing from the twins?

All nintendo has is nintendo at the end of the day. Is it enough? Wasn't enough with the gamecube.
 
Seriously though, folks... Must we have a new thread on this subject each and every time Pachter makes some half-assed comment about the Wii U? Lets just wait till some actual new information comes out about it, and see how it goes. His criticism of it, until we know more, is utterly baseless.
 
Hardly a 'Dreamcast'. Nintendo aren't coming off the back of a failed and rushed console (Saturn) and putting everything into one 'final' console to try and keep things afloat. Sure, the Wii U may not be as popular as Nintendo would hope, but it's certainly not going to be a Dreamcast.

...nothing will ever be a Dreamcast *hugs DC and cries*.
 
Seriously though, folks... Must we have a new thread on this subject each and every time Pachter makes some half-assed comment about the Wii U? Lets just wait till some actual new information comes out about it, and see how it goes. His criticism of it, until we know more, is utterly baseless.

I love the discussions it generates. So why not?
 
Dreamcast lost less money than the PS3 or original XBox development did. So it's always funny to me when someone brings up "this is going to be so and so's Dreamcast" when both Microsoft and Sony would have been put under by their bigger blunders by now if they had Sega's margin of error in their budget.
 
Ds was to supposed to be failure
Wii was supposed to be failure
3ds was considered a failure after launch

They deserve the benefit of the doubt.
 
Absolutely not. Nintendo Bled sales like crazy from SNES > N64 > GCN. 20 million in sales for the GC was certainly not sustainable. had that trend kept up, and nintendo NOT caught lightning in a bottle with the Wii, we'd likely be looking at a handheld-only nintendo by now.

That being said, Pachter is crazy here. The DC collapsed faster than just about any other major console in history. The WiiU won't hit Wii levels, but it's definitely going to live out the generation.

This is cycle-to-cycle perception bullshit. Nintendo made profit consistently through that period with a $6 billion cash reserve at the time. They would have kept making consoles as long as they were a profitable part of their business. Which is a long time past now, even if the trend kept them in third place.
 
I don't see why it's so wrong. You guys are basing the possible success of the U off of what they accomplished with the Wii. I don't think they can do it twice. 2 reasons. The current Wii is TANKING. as in dying tanking while the hd twins truck along. Couple that with the fact that ms or Sony can launch a tech showcase right as WiiU unveils, and announce a price and launch window right as the U launches. If people are already jumping on the ps360 bandwagon, why WOULDNT they wait for the next big thing from the twins?

All nintendo has is nintendo at the end of the day. Is it enough? Wasn't enough with the gamecube.

The twins :O That Sony/MS alliance of awesomeness right :O
 
The past histories of both Sega and Nintendo are enough to know that Pachter's comparison is completely bogus. There's no speculation over what really happened, because how Nintendo has built a foundation that will make even a 3rd-place console sustainable, if not one of the most profitable (not that they plan to aim that low again).
But we've already seen Nintendo showing signs of cracking. The 3DS price was dropped to less than its manufacturing cost so they are taking a loss on each unit sold. These are tactics they haven't employed before (certainly not this early in a hardware cycle). They may have to take an even bigger risk with the Wii U to get it to sell well.
 
This is the guy who, not a month ago, said that Nintendo not telling us the price had doomed the Wii U and now he's saying he won't judge until they reveal the price...
I can see the Dreamcast situation happening (sans forcing nintendo out of the hardware game) but I think it's reasonable for people to not care what Patcher says

Okay. I think we all need to establish something here. Exactly happen to the Dreamcast and why Sega got out of the console business. The Dreamcast was discontinued, if I'm recalling correctly and someone add and correct me, for the following reasons.

1. Sega's financial situation which was the result of it's bad management. This resulted in the failure of the Sega CD and 32X addons, Sega Saturn console and Nomad hand held. T
2. Piracy on the Dreamcast that caused 3rd parties to flee the system to the PlayStation 2.
3. Combination of 1 and 2 made Sega realize they didn't have the resources to support the system and had no choice but to discontinue the system and get out of the hardware business, at least as far as home consoles were concerned.

Nintendo's situation is nothing like what Sega went through. Even with the GameCube Nintendo was making a profit. Only recently have they taken a loss with the 3DS and that will soon turned around. They've posted a yearly loss for the first time but that's a combination of currency and the Wii being at the end of it's life as they go about launching both a new console and a new hand held at the same time.

The games on the Dreamcast I don't think where ever the problem. Even compared to PS2 games. That goes for the content and the graphics. They were good. I wish I owned more of them but I got my DC at the very end. I don't think it releasing ahead of the PS2 had anything to do with it's downfall. The other stuff did. The only comparison that can be made is that both were and will be released before other systems in their eras. That's it. That's not a negative at all.

Nintendo hasn't had a sting of failures. Nintendo is run extremely well. They have billions in cash. Could support a system themselves if pushed I think. They'd have to partner with others to make games based on their IPs while they make games themselves (all their teams) as long as they have a few third parties. N64 and Cube were like that to some degree I believe. If Sega didn't have it's financial issues they might have been able to do that as well as they had enough IPs. It's highly doubtful that the Wii U would be easy to pirate games on. Especially if we go by how well they've locked down the Nintendo 3DS. This is why the Dreamcast comparison, as a negative, doesn't make any system to me.
 
If the Wii U is the next dreamcast I will be jumping for joy. A console way a head of its time with Nintendo's first party line up = me in heaven. I might have to save up if he is right because I will need 1k for launch day like I did for the dreamcast for 10+ games and extra controllers.
 
I don't see why it's so wrong. You guys are basing the possible success of the U off of what they accomplished with the Wii. I don't think they can do it twice. 2 reasons. The current Wii is TANKING. as in dying tanking while the hd twins truck along. Couple that with the fact that ms or Sony can launch a tech showcase right as WiiU unveils, and announce a price and launch window right as the U launches. If people are already jumping on the ps360 bandwagon, why WOULDNT they wait for the next big thing from the twins?

All nintendo has is nintendo at the end of the day. Is it enough? Wasn't enough with the gamecube.

The gamecube was way more successful than the dreamcast and nintendo was still making quite a bit of money that gen. Since then nintendos IP's have grown massively (they have went from their big sellers reaching like 6-7 million to selling 20+ million).

Nintendo alone is absolutely enough to guarantee far more success than the dreamcast. The whole 'they don't have 3rd parties' line is tired and worn out anyway. They have never had 3rd parties and that has never caused them to have a dreamcast level failure. So why now when their IP's and brand are far bigger than ever would it suddenly cause this to happen?
 
http://www.the-magicbox.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9151

Gamecube was sold at a loss.. Nintendo Is tech doomed! A mighty loss that was made up after a few games sold.
You are confusing two separate points.

3DS is being sold below manufacturing cost, i.e. the retail price is less than the cost of the parts used in it.

That's not what was happening with the GameCube (well, maybe when they dropped the price to $99, but even that's not certain). They were losing money back then because of the cost of running the manufacturing plants, which were not being utilised because of the low sales of GameCube. You also have to consider the cost of research and development of their new hardware (back in 2004, this was for the DS and Wii).
 
I don't see why it's so wrong. You guys are basing the possible success of the U off of what they accomplished with the Wii. I don't think they can do it twice. 2 reasons. The current Wii is TANKING. as in dying tanking while the hd twins truck along. Couple that with the fact that ms or Sony can launch a tech showcase right as WiiU unveils, and announce a price and launch window right as the U launches. If people are already jumping on the ps360 bandwagon, why WOULDNT they wait for the next big thing from the twins?

All nintendo has is nintendo at the end of the day. Is it enough? Wasn't enough with the gamecube.

It's almost like people forget Wii has sold over 90 million units and that somehow evaporates into NOTHING, just cuz. I'll admit there will be people who own a Wii that won't bite on a WiiU, but it doesn't invalidate the Wii user base. It just means Nintendo will have to do something colossally dumb for people not to buy it. Sony could have had this generation on lock, but $599 launch price ensured that it wouldn't happen and by the time Sony fixed the mistake, PS2 owners had either moved on to the 360, the Wii or just stopped giving a shit about gaming altogether.

You are confusing two separate points.

3DS is being sold below manufacturing cost, i.e. the retail price is less than the cost of the parts used in it.

That's not what was happening with the GameCube (well, maybe when they dropped the price to $99, but even that's not certain). They were losing money back then because of the cost of running the manufacturing plants, which were not being utilised because of the low sales of GameCube. You also have to consider the cost of research and development of their new hardware (back in 2004, this was for the DS and Wii).

Actually, it was sold at a loss at launch, as well, even if it was a very small one.
 
Sega is doing alright as a software-only company now. History usually repeats itself, so is it inevitable that Nintendo will follow the same path? Mario and Link on the PS4? That will be a crazy day on GAF.
 
Sega is doing alright as a software-only company now. History usually repeats itself, so is it inevitable that Nintendo will follow the same path? Mario and Link on the PS4? That will be a crazy day on GAF.

Yes Drake and Kratos will be fun on next next next Nintendo and Xbox
 
The Dreamcast was using cutting-edge components.

The Wii U will be easily outclassed by 4 or 5 times when PS420 releases.

This is in Nintendo's comfort zone.
 
Troll says someting trollish.

When are we just gonna stop giving him attention here. We ban other people and other sites why not get rid of someone who has proven they can't predict worth a damn and is always stirring the pot.

Pachter you were dead wrong about WiiHD and now want to foster that argument on to WiiU. You were dead wrong period on Wii please stop.
 
Absolutely not. Nintendo Bled sales like crazy from SNES > N64 > GCN. 20 million in sales for the GC was certainly not sustainable. had that trend kept up, and nintendo NOT caught lightning in a bottle with the Wii, we'd likely be looking at a handheld-only nintendo by now.

That being said, Pachter is crazy here. The DC collapsed faster than just about any other major console in history. The WiiU won't hit Wii levels, but it's definitely going to live out the generation.
They lowered in sales but still made big profits. They didn't "bleed" shit.
 
The Dreamcast was using cutting-edge components.

The Wii U will be easily outclassed by 4 or 5 times when PS420 releases.

This is in Nintendo's comfort zone.

Considering the only thing we've heard about Durango's specs is that they're within spitting distance of WiiU, you can just keep telling yourself that if it makes you feel better.
 
It's not possible for the Wii-U to be a Dreamcast. Because the reason the Dreamcast failed was 100% because the Saturn had drained all of Sega's cash. Sega wanted to put a DVD drive in the Dreamcast at launch, couldn't afford to. They wanted to out-market Sony, couldn't afford to. They wanted to pay for some really big non-Sega exclusives, couldn't afford to. They had to sell the system for a loss, couldn't afford to. Eventually they ran out of money to even finish developing games for the system, until they sold the company to an arcade machine manufacturer.

Had Sega not been broke, the Dreamcast would have had a great shot. Nintendo has a HUGE warchest of cash, they've had that for years. Nintendo couldn't possibly blow through all that money in one generation. Heck, Microsoft *planned* to lose money jumping into the gaming industry, they bought their way in, it cost them $4 billion in 4 years, Nintendo has over $10 billion in the bank.
 
It's an apt analogy with the console having a relatively marginal graphical improvement compared to the upcoming Sony and MS consoles as well as the likely one year lead it will have on its competing consoles. It will most likely be seen as a in-between-gen console just like the DC was perceived.

As for predicting how well it will do sales wise in comparison to the DC... lol patcher. DC was selling pretty well in its early days even, the problem was that Sega was going broke.
 
The reveal was lackluster and confusing, and I definitely do think the Wii was lightning in a bottle - doubtful that Nintendo can replicate that success. But I wouldn't go as far to say that the Wii U will be as big a flop as the Dreamcast ended up being (and hey, the Dreamcast still had great games!)

Certainly not at this point anyway. I am intensely curious to see what they'll be showing at E3 this year however.
 
It's an apt analogy with the console having a relatively marginal graphical improvement compared to the upcoming Sony and MS consoles as well as the likely one year lead it will have on its competing consoles. It will most likely be seen as a in-between-gen console just like the DC was perceived.

The Dreamcast had a HUGE graphical improvement over Saturn, N64, PS1; at the time nobody at all thought it was an in-between-gen console. It took years for games on competing systems to look clearly better (except XBox with its pixel shaders).
 
The Dreamcast had a HUGE graphical improvement over Saturn, N64, PS1; at the time nobody at all thought it was an in-between-gen console. It took years for games on competing systems to look clearly better.

Note how I said "relatively" and that it was generally perceived this way. I had a DC on launch day as well and was blown away by soul calibur. Your average gamer still saw it as being in the same gen as PS1 and N64 unfortunately and was convinced that the PS2 was going to be able to render all the CG in the Star Wars Ep 1 movie in real time.

I used to get into huge arguments with people on GAF all the time about how the DC should have been considered to be part of the PS2/Xbox generation.. I ended up in this argument too many times, hence the "generally perceived" part.
 
It's an apt analogy with the console having a relatively marginal graphical improvement compared to the upcoming Sony and MS consoles as well as the likely one year lead it will have on its competing consoles. It will most likely be seen as a in-between-gen console just like the DC was perceived.

As for predicting how well it will do sales wise in comparison to the DC... lol patcher

And what actual specs are you using to make such a claim? Love this crowd before it was it couldn't be the current consoles not it's only marginal improvements.

Outside of the early 1 year lead it's foolish to compare it. It's not dreamcast considering dc followed a failed system with a company that had no money to take on sony and PS2. Not only that using a spec argument after the Wii era is extremely foolish. Do we need another generation where consumers answers with their wallets about what really matters.

Two comparing sega and nintendo engineers to each other is dumb. Nintendo's system sans Wii in terms of power lasted their generations. From my checklist outside of genesis sega hasn't done what nintendo has done in this area. There are far more differences between WiiU/Wii than there are similiarities to the Dreamcast/Saturn situation.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top Bottom