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[dgrdsv]

I'd applaud perfect DRM if it also automatically and reliably self-removed after some given time period (e.g. a few years).

While a great idea on its own it would result in such DRM being more vulnerable to hacking and simply because of this I think that it won't ever be implemented.

 

[Gamezone]

I'll give my case of what happened to me.

I was playing MGSV when it launched. I was playing single player. At some point the game updated. Between the game updating, and me playing, my internet had gone down. I launched MGSV and it wouldn't run because it said it needed to authenticate, and I had no internet to do so.

This gives an idea of one instance where authentication is required, and not completed automatically and preventing playing the game. My guess is that there is likely a periodic check as well.

Doing some testing now, I just went into Offline mode and tried to launch the two Denuvo games I have installed, MGSV and DOOM.

The last time I played MGSV was June 22nd, and the game launched fine offline.

The last time I played DOOM was June 26th

But it had an update on July 1st, and trying to launch it offline gave me this.

I don't know if there is a recheck it does, but regardless it seems like there is definitely an online check necessary after install and/or update.

Can`t the recheck be done on the phone? Android/IOS/WP have an official Steam app. If it isn`t possible, it should be.

 

[prudislav]

Can`t the recheck be done on the phone? Android/IOS/WP have an official Steam app. If it isn`t possible, it should be.

nope as the check is on Denuvo's part not the steam part ... and as far i know there is not oficial Denuvo auth app on Android/IOS/WP

 

[Gamezone]

nope as the check is on Denuvo's part not the steam part ... and as far i know there is not oficial Denuvo auth app on Android/IOS/WP

That`s sad. At least Microsoft was planning to let you check in with your phone with their original Xbox One DRM.

 

[spineduke]

Yup. Not sure which of the 2100+ posts it was but I do recall info posted more than once.

Again, this isn't a new revelation. I'm honestly not sifting through every post to find them.

I went through it all and I didn't find anything supporting your argument that there was a sharp drop off in sales upon a pirate release of a game.

 

[Jacksinthe]

I went through it all and I didn't find anything supporting your argument that there was a sharp drop off in sales upon a pirate release of a game.

Maybe a different thread, then. There were devs posting up. I just remember the thread was started because a dev made a comment about piracy and their game. May have been a more recent thread like the Tiny Build dev thread but I recall contributing - as a dev, myself.

May not have been the Blow (I am pretty sure it was) thread but every piracy related diacussion always goes the same so you'll have to forgive my memory since they all contain the same arguments about piracy.

I'll give a look later but I know devs have chimed in.

Edit incoming... Or not - i'll add new post...

 

[roadrunn3r]

I'll give a look later but I know devs have chimed in.

I'm also waiting for that if you can find it cause so far we have never had any kind of clear proof like what you are mentioning so it would be a first.

 

[Jacksinthe]

Google'd instead, from a different thread:

we know there's a direct link between sales taking a plunge and pirated version being available. Problem is that sales data is under non-disclosure clauses and that from what I've seen from a very few examples (all happening after first 2/3 days) is that it can also vary a lot.

most of us do have hard data to show that they are losing revenue to thanks piracy.

The only thing that we as developers can say for sure is that a XX% drop in revenue after day X, which could only be attributed to scene release that day.

I know I can find more devs here that have chimed in but I'm honestly pressed for time. I'll do more googling but I know it happens from talking to devs - because that's what we do - talk to one another :|

This shouldn't be surprising.

 

[Hayvic]

This shouldn't be surprising.

I'm not sure why people find this so hard to believe. The extent to which piracy affect sales will likely never be reliably quantified, but it's not some sort of impossible logical leap to assume it does.

 

[roadrunn3r]

Google'd instead, from a different thread:

I know I can find more devs here that have chimed in but I'm honestly pressed for time. I'll do more googling but I know it happens from talking to devs - because that's what we do - talk to one another :|

This shouldn't be surprising.

It's a bit funny cause you are linking someone who posted in this same thread in the previous page but I don't see any data still. All he says is that it can't be quantified which is what probably everyone here agreed on and that there will never be any data of this kind available to the public "because of platform holder restrictions". This is hardly "evidence of sales dropping SHARPLY " Lets differentiate evidence from opinions please whatever your view may be on the matter.

 

[TheYanger]

Well, other indie developers manage just fine with no strong DRM, or often no DRM at all.

Some people manage by selling games for virtually nothing as well, apples and oranges what is your point? Unless you're saying that you firmly believe they lose more by using DRM than by not, what you're saying is irrelevant (And even then, you're not saying what you mean in that case).


Hey Jonathan Blow, Braid managed just fine at 15 bucks. Why is The Witness 40?

 

[Jacksinthe]

It's a bit funny cause you are linking someone who posted in this same thread in the previous page but I don't see any data still. All he says is that it can't be quantified which is what probably everyone here agreed on and that there will never be any data of this kind available to the public "because of platform holder restrictions". This is hardly "evidence of sales dropping SHARPLY " Lets differentiate evidence from opinions please whatever your view may be on the matter.

WE have evidence.
YOU don't.
WE can either choose to give it or be told not to.

On quantification:
Impossible. I outlined in the Blow thread that sales data can vary from title to title so while one game may see a 5% drop, another may see a 50% drop. There's no way to accurately compare sales data from any two games, sequels or otherwise.

What we DO know and CAN see is that a pattern emerges when a cracked/pirated version hits torrent sites day and date.

To me and every other dev that pays attention, that says pirated copies DO squelch sales to a degree.

This isn't rocket science and you don't have to believe me or any other dev. We know it affects us and the ilk in here getting hurt over devs wanting to protect their livelihoods is depressing - especially in regards to indie devs as people seem to think we are second class citizens. Nobody says "how dare that AAA dev . . . " but we regularly get shit on despite some of the most compelling titles being indie entering the market at a much higher rate than AAA games do.

But, please, bury your head in the sand.

 

[exmachina64]

3 hours long and it costs 15 squids.

It's a masterpiece.

 

[jet1911]

3 hours long and it costs 15 squids.

- 3 or 4 hours long
- it's 20 canadian bucks
- GOTY

 

[More_Badass]

It's a bit funny cause you are linking someone who posted in this same thread in the previous page but I don't see any data still. All he says is that it can't be quantified which is what probably everyone here agreed on and that there will never be any data of this kind available to the public "because of platform holder restrictions". This is hardly "evidence of sales dropping SHARPLY " Lets differentiate evidence from opinions please whatever your view may be on the matter.

They have evidence and sales graphs on their end, correlative data that links drops in sales with pirated versions becoming available. They just can't share it publicly. I mean, he made that point very clear

 

[TheYanger]

- 3 or 4 hours long
- it's 20 canadian bucks
- GOTY

Hard to make people understand that many AAA action games are like the exact same cost:time ratio.

 

[CrispyBoar]

Wonder how many PC games will be lost forever to this DRM.

It's most likely there to prevent people from pirating/hacking unreleased goodies just to use them early (Example: Street Fighter V). Your game will still be around.

It will only be a matter of time before everyone else follows.

 

[hardcastlemccormick]

Funnily enough I just tried to play Crysis through Origin today. Couldn't do it, something about EA's DRM setup just wouldn't let me play it. Too many logins and CD checks. Guess I don't own Crysis anymore.

Any game with unbreakable DRM is just another wasted night waiting to happen for me. A game has to be something I really, really want to play for me to put up with the hassle these days.

 

[holygeesus]

If PC piracy was no big deal, or it's impact overblown, would devs come out with statements like this time and time again?

http://www.videogamesblogger.com/20...w-switching-game-development-away-from-pc.htm

Back in December 2007 we also touched on the issue that while Crysis only sold 86,633 units in its first month on sale, on certain Bittorrent file sharing sites alone Crysis was illegally downloaded over 300,000 times

http://www.shacknews.com/article/54129/id-pc-worth-supporting-but

The statement follows remarks made by id Software CEO Todd Hollenshead at last year's Game Developer's Conference, where he claimed that that "piracy has pushed id as being multiplatform" at last year's Game Developers Conference.

http://www.totalvideogames.com/Gears-of-War-2/feature-13270.html

Here's the problem right now; the person who is savvy enough to want to have a good PC to upgrade their video card, is a person who is savvy enough to know bit torrent to know all the elements so they can pirate software. Therefore, high-end videogames are suffering very much on the PC. Right now, it makes sense for us to focus on Xbox 360 for a number of reasons. Not least PCs with multiple configurations and piracy.

http://uk.ign.com/articles/2008/02/20/gdc-2008-chris-taylor-on-pc-piracy

...people are going to stop making [games] on the PC because of my earlier point, what's happened on the PC with piracy. The economics are ugly right now on the PC. You're not going to see these gigantic, epic investments of dollars on the PC when it just doesn't work. The economics have to work. You're going to see those investments made on the console side and it's going to become a more console-centric investment. And then you're going to see them ported back over to the PC and that creates a different experience on the PC.

Chris Taylor was on point with this observation, which is why we get so many crappy PC ports nowadays. 8 years ago he predicted this.

http://arstechnica.com/gaming/2008/01/pc-sales-slow-as-some-despair-over-piracy/

"On another PC related note, we pulled some disturbing numbers this past week about the amount of PC players currently playing Multiplayer (which was fantastic). What wasn't fantastic was the percentage of those numbers who were playing on stolen copies of the game on stolen / cracked CD keys of pirated copies (and that was only people playing online)," Bowling wrote. "The amount of people who pirate PC games is astounding. It blows me away at the amount of people willing to steal games (or anything) simply because it's not physical or it's on the safety of the internet to do."

The people quoted above are some of the most successful PC developers of our time. I doubt any of them would suddenly start abandoning PC development based only on flimsy information and false perceptions. Piracy has a massive impact. Anyone pretending otherwise is deluded.

Here is a dev speaking specifically about lost revenue

http://www.mcvuk.com/news/read/lgc-10-1m-people-illegally-downloaded-football-manager-2013/0124256

Football Manager boss Miles Jacobson has revealed the true extent of video game piracy on PC.

10.1m people have illegally downloaded Football Manager 2013, he said on stage at London Games Conference 2013.

The game was cracked on May 12th this year, but the crack featured a flaw called Home, which allowed Jacobson and his team to track the IP address of everybody who illegally downloaded the game.

Out of those 10.1m people, most came from China, which accounted for 3.2m of the illegal downloads. Turkey was in second place with 1.05m followed by Portugal with 781,785 games.

Italy was also a hotbed for PC piracy, with 547,000 in the country (plus one in the Vatican).

Jacobson said that he does not believe that one pirated game equals one lost sale "That would be ridiculous to think," he said. But based on the drop in activations, he estimated piracy cost them 176,000 lost sales. He added that 1.74 per cent of illegal downloaders would potentially purchase the game had no crack been available, which would have meant $3.7m in revenue. Revenue he would have spent hiring new members to the team.

He told the audience that sales dropped off heavily once the game was cracked.

He said 18 per cent of people who downloaded illegally played the games five times or more, so that's around 1.8m gamers regularly playing a game they did not pay for.

 

[spineduke]

If PC piracy was no big deal, or it's impact overblown, would devs come out with statements like this time and time again?

You can quote me all the devs you like, all of your quotes say how many people are pirating.

None of these examples show how these are lost sales. Just because you see a game getting torrented to hell, it doesn't establish any link to why they didn't sell X amount.

Back in December 2007 we also touched on the issue that while Crysis only sold 86,633 units in its first month on sale, on certain Bittorrent file sharing sites alone Crysis was illegally downloaded over 300,000 times

Isn't Crysis one of the best selling PC games of all time? It outperformed Crysis 2 and 3 across all platforms combined which were multiplatform titles.

He added that 1.74 per cent of illegal downloaders would potentially purchase the game had no crack been available,

Ironically, Football Manager 2013 was their best selling version of the game.

I doubt any of them would suddenly start abandoning PC development based only on flimsy information and false perceptions. Piracy has a massive impact. Anyone pretending otherwise is deluded.

Who has abandoned PC development? It's grown bigger than ever before. What has changed since?

 

[holygeesus]

Big budget PC exclusives are rare. Devs now focus primarily on consoles, and if we are lucky, we get a competent PC port.

 

[holygeesus]

BTW here is a tweet from Dan Teasdale positively identifying torrenting of his games with lost sales

 

[Weltall Zero]

Catching up with this, I think both sides have a point. Denuvo seems to be the first anti-piracy measure that actually works, which is obviously very good for game sales and devs, and it's not nearly as intrusive as "online check on game start" or even "always online" bullshit other games have tried. But I also share the uneasiness about future-proofing these games, which, if already a possible concern with Steam, more than doubles in this case.

 

[Pantaghana]

Big budget PC exclusives are rare. Devs now focus primarily on consoles, and if we are lucky, we get a competent PC port.

Unless it's fully funded by a Sony/MS/Nintendo, big budget console exclusives from third party devs are just as rare if not rarer, so what's your point? Making games is expensive, everyone wans the biggest audience possible to earn as much money as possible.

 

[jmga]

BTW here is a tweet from Dan Teasdale positively identifying torrenting of his games with lost sales

If it were so easy to correlate piracy and sales, there would be like 500 researches showing this evidence, and all major publishers would be spreading them. The fact is that there is no research showing a correleation between piracy and sales.

Another fact is that you can't trust numbers given from inside the industry, because they are totally biased.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/emmawoo...jective-figures-on-games-piracy/#1401b8e03b67

 

[DocSeuss]

If PC piracy was no big deal, or it's impact overblown, would devs come out with statements like this time and time again?

A lot of people saying it doesn't mean it's true.

Just because your game's been downloaded 300,000 times doesn't mean you lost 300,000 sales. Most people I know who pirate/pirated games did so because they didn't have the means to purchase the product or weren't interested in buying it but saw an opportunity to check it out. I don't think I know anyone who torrents when they COULD buy a legitimate copy.

It's not to say piracy isn't a concern, but piracy is nowhere NEAR the insane concern a lot of people said.

It's worth noting that folks at id later mentioned regretting taking Rage multiplatform, Bleszinski said the same thing after leaving the PC, and on and on it goes. Lots of folks have claimed piracy was the problem and it really wasn't.

 

[CecilRousso]

Big budget PC exclusives are rare. Devs now focus primarily on consoles, and if we are lucky, we get a competent PC port.

If you think think that devs in general are focused on consoles, and we're lucky to get ports, then you're living in the same 2007-2009 that you've been quoting stuff from.

 

[Corpekata]

Big budget PC exclusives are rare. Devs now focus primarily on consoles, and if we are lucky, we get a competent PC port.

This is amsuing given all the people you quoted make PC games (some exclusively) that are good ports, with Chris Taylor specifically pretty much only having worked on PC games. There's a reason most of your sources are nearly a decade old.

 

[holygeesus]

If you think think that devs in general are focused on consoles, and we're lucky to get ports, then you're living in the same 2007-2009 that you've been quoting stuff from.

This is amsuing given all the people you quoted make PC games (some exclusively) that are good ports, with Chris Taylor specifically pretty much only having worked on PC games. There's a reason most of your sources are nearly a decade old.

OK then, here are some more up to date sources

http://tinybuild.com/punch-club-has-been-pirated-over-1-million-times

The obvious takeaway is that piracy is real and massive, but we all know this. Quick recap:
Punch Club appeared on torrents within hours of launch
For every sale on PC there are 4 pirates
For every Android sale there are 12 pirates
For every iOS sale there are 2 pirates

People claiming that it is impossible to track the scale of piracy are just plain wrong. It is easier than ever for devs to analyse the numbers. Nobody is saying all illegal downloads equate 1:1 to lost sales, but it is barmy to suggest that devs aren't hit financially by this scale of piracy.

http://gamerant.com/video-game-piracy-damage-opinion/

One such example is Demigod, from Stardock. The publisher had always taken a strong anti-DRM stance, accepting piracy as a part of the video game landscape. However, when the game was released, the much-lauded multiplayer mode failed to work correctly. Stardock and developer Gas-Powered Games had stress tested the online for 50,000 users at once, but Demigod was apparently dealing with up to 120,000 connections, of which only approximately 18,000 were legitimate.

Would all those 102,000 of players playing hooky copies have bought it if the game wasn't available for free? Of course not, but it is naive to believe that none of them would have stumped up the cash for it if not for the ease of available PC pirated titles.

Demigod is far from the only example where piracy played a part in damaging sales. iOS game Battle Dungeon had a similar experience, but with an even worse outcome. Developer Hunting Cow was forced to shut down the game entirely due to the server load that was being caused by the sheer number of illegitimate users. Offering up a full refund to any user who paid for the game, the developer revealed that due to the technical issues it did not think it could fix the game “to the level that our paying customers deserve.”

Equally, some developers trying to put measures in place to stop piracy have had their own practices backfire. Developer Iron Lore Entertainment received damning customer reviews of Titan Quest before the game was even properly released. The title was leaked and pirated online, but the leaked version of the game was a cracked version that still had copy protection in place. As a result, non-registered users would suffer from regular in-game crashes. The end result was poor word-of-mouth – primarily from people who had never played the true retail version of the game.

Dispelling the myth that piracy should somehow be encouraged as it generates good word of mouth etc. Or generate publicity.

Then, there is the example of Game Dev Tycoon, from Greenheart Games. The developer uploaded a cracked version of the game, with one major difference: games created in the cracked version would suffer from piracy, leading the in-game studio to failure. Ironically, those playing the pirated version were quick to take to forums requesting help on how to stop gamers from pirating their game, with some even requesting how to research DRM. By the end of just day one, only 6.4% of those playing Game Dev Tycoon had bought the game.

All incidents showcasing that piracy damages the industry. If anyone has compelling evidence to the contrary, offer it up.

 

[CecilRousso]

OK then, here are some more up to date sources

http://tinybuild.com/punch-club-has-been-pirated-over-1-million-times

Not really a response to what I posted about. It was about the state of the PC market and developer's focus.

And I have not once in this thread said that games aren't pirated a lot.

 

[_machine]

Ironically, Football Manager 2013 was their best selling version of the game.

Yet they quantify the potential loss at well over $3 million USD, at a very reasonable conversion rate (I mean if people disagree that 0.0174 is unreasonable conversion rate had there not been a cracked version available, then I have nothing more to discuss, because that number is realistic even with just common sense). Again and again, it's not about being successful or not in the grand scale, but maximizing the potential of success and it's impact while eliminating risks and costs (again, just the support and backend costs are not negligible).

Are those expectations any more unrealistic then the propagande we've been hearing throughout the years from publishers, devs and anyone talking about the effects expected if we could eradicate piracy? I for one don't remember a single instance of any dev or publisher saying that if piracy went away they expected a slight increase in sales?

Sorry it took a me while to respond, but thanks for posting a very reasonable point. Many of the developers/publishers have been very bad at communicating the matter, and Yves Guillemot in particular had his fair share of hyperbole. I seriously doubt that it's in line with the expectations of their own internal business analysts, but it hasn't helped the discussion that's for sure. And that's why I definitely advocate more reasonable discussion. However, these days there are at least some examples of that: http://www.mcvuk.com/news/read/lgc-10-1m-people-illegally-downloaded-football-manager-2013/0124256

I should also mention that with the rise of Steam and a change in the PC platform economics, we should be talking about the past 5 years at most and not drag comparisons to the age where retail PC was dwindling and Steam had a poor market share, because it's not comparable data anymore.

 

[Bowl0l]

How about after a few years, the developer will sell a copy of the game without DRM?
Doubtful that pirates will bother pirating once those games are cheap in Steam sales.

 

[Turin Turambar]

Big budget PC exclusives are rare. Devs now focus primarily on consoles, and if we are lucky, we get a competent PC port.

You are conflating big budget game devs with game devs. The two terms are not the same.

 

[Spacejaws]

I think it varies. Some people have reported needing to re-auth MGS5 after installing new GPU drivers.

I play offline almost exclusively and I have to make sure I reauthorize MGS V everytime I update the game.

IE find some internet, go online, update MGS V. Go into offline mode and I'll get the Denovo first time setup message and will have to go back online to reauthenticate. Haven't narrowed it down but it seems to match up with whenever I've updated the game. Which sucks.

 

[SirPinkyNose]

Hard to make people understand that many AAA action games are like the exact same cost:time ratio.

12 hours long AAA?
They are rare.

 

[Cyrano]

All incidents showcasing that piracy damages the industry. If anyone has compelling evidence to the contrary, offer it up.

Perhaps the biggest issue with piracy is entirely this. Your evidence isn't compelling, but you are also right in that there isn't compelling evidence to the contrary either.

What that actually means:
1) There isn't a lot of academic research on this, and industry research has been found on multiple occasions to overestimate or outright falsify the scale of the issue.
2) The reason there isn't a lot of research is because it's difficult to perform academic research on behavior that happens in ways that typically occur via multiple levels of obfuscation (and generally academic research doesn't attempt to take advantage of populations that are already vulnerable to begin with - i.e. populations that are too poor to be able to afford game software).
3) The actual damage to the industry is real, but the scale is likely not nearly as severe as is reported by those most concerned about it.
4) More is still probably lost via other means that a publisher can more readily control for, such as onboarding or renewals, which are likely better targeted as places of focus, rather than attempting to garner money from people who are very likely to simply not be able to purchase your game regardless.

 

[_machine]

Perhaps the biggest issue with piracy is entirely this. Your evidence isn't compelling, but you are also right in that there isn't compelling evidence to the contrary either.

What that actually means:
1) There isn't a lot of academic research on this, and industry research has been found on multiple occasions to overestimate or outright falsify the scale of the issue.

Please give some sources on this, as I have never seen any industry research (and I mean actual statistical tests and academic-like analysis) make public, and any 3rd party research (which is usually more reliable) is behind very strict NDAs and paywall. However, it does exist and is very comprehensive. And public academic research doesn't exist due to the fact that all sales data is very much beyond strict NDAs and business secrets. If you want to take frankly ridiculous quotes from CEO's sure, but they also don't really reflect how business analysis actually works.

2) The reason there isn't a lot of research is because it's difficult to perform academic research on behavior that happens in ways that typically occur via multiple levels of obfuscation (and generally academic research doesn't attempt to take advantage of populations that are already vulnerable to begin with - i.e. populations that are too poor to be able to afford game software).

True to a degree, but in terms of proving (or as most test actually work, proving the hypothesis is not true) the effect is very realistic with accurate sales data, and the accurate scale isn't as important as proving the detrimental effect, because it's too much noise. If, I assume you mean "academic research" meaning proprietary, but approached in a academic/scientific manner. If you mean actual public research, then the point above stands.

3) The actual damage to the industry is real, but the scale is likely not nearly as severe as is reported by those most concerned about it.

True, reported statements, especially before 2010, were absolutely ridiculous. However, they don't reflect the actual business planning, and we've seen more realistic statements lately, like in terms of just delaying the initial cracked version being profitable etc.

 

[spineduke]

Yet they quantify the potential loss at well over $3 million USD, at a very reasonable conversion rate (I mean if people disagree that 0.0174 is unreasonable conversion rate had there not been a cracked version available, then I have nothing more to discuss, because that number is realistic even with just common sense). Again and again, it's not about being successful or not in the grand scale, but maximizing the potential of success and it's impact while eliminating risks and costs (again, just the support and backend costs are not negligible).

I think it's very reasonable and far more in line than what the 1:1 expectations that some devs do. I'm not sure how he came to that exact magic figure, but let's say it's accurate for the sake of this discussion.

You say its not about being successful, but maximizing the potential of success? So what would you define that as? Are the motives not the same? Is the issue, we're not making as much money as we could be making? That 5% increase in sales is worth alienating some of our customer base for? In a perfect world, they would get every dollar they could get. I guess we'll have to disagree on what's healthier overall for gaming as a whole. As much of a negative cost there is associated with piracy, comes word of mouth and more online coverage. I'm absolutely not condoning the practice, but I want to point out that the net costs to society aren't as clear cut as some might think it to be. We can talk about the 1% loss of sales, or we can talk about the 500k people pirating the game who are sharing their experiences and talking about it online and elsewhere. Can you be so sure about where the losses start and where the profits begin?

Please give some sources on this, as I have never seen any industry research (and I mean actual statistical tests and academic-like analysis) make public, and any 3rd party research (which is usually more reliable) is behind very strict NDAs and paywall. However, it does exist and is very comprehensive. And public academic research doesn't exist due to the fact that all sales data is very much beyond strict NDAs and business secrets. If you want to take frankly ridiculous quotes from CEO's sure, but they also don't really reflect how business analysis actually works.

I would love to see something concrete on this as well. There are a lot of summary reports, but most indepth studies are not available for the public.

 

[Cyrano]

Please give some sources on this, as I have never seen any industry research (and I mean actual statistical tests and academic-like analysis) make public, and any 3rd party research (which is usually more reliable) is behind very strict NDAs and paywall. However, it does exist and is very comprehensive. And public academic research doesn't exist due to the fact that all sales data is very much beyond strict NDAs and business secrets. If you want to take frankly ridiculous quotes from CEO's sure, but they also don't really reflect how business analysis actually works.


True to a degree, but in terms of proving (or as most test actually work, proving the hypothesis is not true) the effect is very realistic with accurate sales data, and the accurate scale isn't as important as proving the detrimental effect, because it's too much noise. If, I assume you mean "academic research" meaning proprietary, but approached in a academic/scientific manner. If you mean actual public research, then the point above stands.


True, reported statements, especially before 2010, were absolutely ridiculous. However, they don't reflect the actual business planning, and we've seen more realistic statements lately, like in terms of just delaying the initial cracked version being profitable etc.

This is the most reliable and recent research I could find.
http://cacm.acm.org/magazines/2014/5/174345-what-happened-to-video-game-piracy/abstract

ACM is a fairly well-respected IS and IM journal. That said, the article itself is not heavily referenced in academic research so determining its reliability is difficult (determining reproducible and reliable "results" given by most industry sources is questionable at best).

That research is largely predicated on the below research, which was done in 2013, which also indicates that based on their bibliometrics, the scale of piracy is a) not actually that large and b) driven by a few major players (a handful of widely marketed, popular games) with a lot of minor outliers - both of which correlate to the effect of actual piracy not likely being as large as is typically attributed by industry sources. This is NOT to say that it doesn't have an effect, just that its actual effect, most typically, its effects on sales, is likely overblown. What that minor effect is (some % of sales) is still up for speculation without a more considerable analysis of the a) growth of piracy long-term and b) actual conversion rates of unpirateable materials to users (users who purchased in absence of the ability to pirate the material, but would not have purchased were piracy an available option). With the research available however, it is clear that piracy only accounts for a relatively small portion of the total market, and is particularly prevalent in places that do not have means (either due to a region restriction or lack of purchasing power).
http://dl.acm.org/citation.cfm?id=2483257&CFID=811470821&CFTOKEN=88387364

 

[~Cross~]

From the article it seems that its taking the growth of the industry as a whole to be indicative that pirating isn't really that bad. Which fails to take into consideration that the vast majority of the industry is already safeguarded by means other than DRM (Consoles, Always Online, Phone Games).

A proper study for this just cant be done now days because encryption and safeguarding tech has way outpaced the crackers ability to remove them. Consoles are more less secured, games are more and more frequently utilizing online components that cant be emulated and the few single player games that come out are secured with personalized DRM that cant be dealt with by the layman.

 

[Cyrano]

From the article it seems that its taking the growth of the industry as a whole to be indicative that pirating isn't really that bad. Which fails to take into consideration that the vast majority of the industry is already safeguarded by means other than DRM (Consoles, Always Online, Phone Games).

A proper study for this just cant be done now days because encryption and safeguarding tech has way outpaced the crackers ability to remove them. Consoles are more less secured, games are more and more frequently utilizing online components that cant be emulated and the few single player games that come out are secured with personalized DRM that cant be dealt with by the layman.

Any discourse that is based on comparative studies is naturally going to have gaps in the research that could likely be better addressed by independent research. That said, the reason doing such research is unlikely has much more to do with the fact that the industry itself has made such research difficult via all of the security measures you have outlined. While internal research is possible and maybe even plausible, it comes with an inherent conflict of interest that makes it difficult to claim that the given information is reliable. Particularly so when the few pieces of research that have come from the academic community seem to speak in direct contrast to the results often reported by the industry itself.

 

[CecilRousso]

Sorry it took a me while to respond, but thanks for posting a very reasonable point. Many of the developers/publishers have been very bad at communicating the matter, and Yves Guillemot in particular had his fair share of hyperbole. I seriously doubt that it's in line with the expectations of their own internal business analysts, but it hasn't helped the discussion that's for sure. And that's why I definitely advocate more reasonable discussion. However, these days there are at least some examples of that: http://www.mcvuk.com/news/read/lgc-10-1m-people-illegally-downloaded-football-manager-2013/0124256

No worries about the time.

Thanks for the link, that was definitely a more sensible quantification about it. A bit suprised to see it being from Miles Jacobsen though. I followed him on twitter, being a Football Manager and football fan, and he was very often just grumpy and didn't waste that many words.

I absolutely buy what he's saying, and my posts with Steamspy numbers have always (intended) to be as replies to the ones expecting and saying that Denuvo would magically increase sales signficantly, and significantly meaning something we as the end customers, who are expected to accept things like Denuvo, can clearly see. And I do still argue that we cannot see them, even if at the same time accept what Miles Jacobsen are saying. And it does highlight what you posted earlier in your first response to me.

But even what he is saying doesn't make me ok with Denuvo, because:

*It alters what I expect Steam to be.
*It goes completely against what I want PC games to be.

Denuvo is one big step further towards Games As a Service, and when games become that, I will pay for them and consume them like I consume movies, tv-series and music today. And I'm not sure the devs actually want that. If they want me to value their products higher, they will have to provide games that match my expectations on that.

I understand the will to maximize the profits, to secure the company like Jacobsen means, like any business. But just as they want to protect their rights as a business, I want to protect my rights as both a consumer and a PC games enthusiast, and from that point of view, I continue to hope that Denuvo will end up being a spectacular failure in the end, and that developers will rather turn to back trying to increase profits by exceeding expectations that so many devs do, with CD Projekt as the shining example.

 

[Noobcraft]

DRM fits very nicely into the oppressive theme of the game. It adds to the experience.

 

[bj00rn_]

This thread saved me a few dollars..
I'm going to be more aware of my purchases and try my best to avoid online DRM'ed games. Problem is, not all devs disclose their DRM implementations.