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[Killjoy-NL]

Interesting CoD has had a heavier skew towards consoles in the past. I'm guessing Warzone changed this.

I don't know, I've always thought COD was predominantly a PC-franchise, since that's where it originated.

Surprised at the 51% share on mobile though.
Though I wonder how much overlap there is between mobile and other platforms. I assume there's 80+% overlap.

 

[Woopah]

Yep. Nintendo is about to take a huge bite out of Sony and Xboxes lunch. More people are likely to buy in the switch ecosystem with a more competent console and if more games that have historically skipped Nintendo end up on their platform then that's a lot of 30% cuts lost for them.

In that scenario Xbox make less from third parties, have a subscription struggling to hit critical mass and are choosing to ignore giant userbases. That isn't an argument that stands up in a board room.

Nintendo will take a bite from having significantly better initial third party support for Switch 2 than they did for Switch.

Having said that, PS5 will still have a significant competitive advantages over Switch 2, such are far superior online and more established fan bases for the major third party franchises.

Great, but we are comparing Year #3 here...

Series X/S came out 3 years ago

Their point still stands. In Year #3 Xbox One outsold PS4 for several months in a row.

 

[HeWhoWalks]

GAMEPASS

Um, folks aren't buying Xbox Series consoles in droves for Game Pass, even when there are PC/Xbox-only games.

 

[Mowcno]

I don't know, I've always thought COD was predominantly a PC-franchise, since that's where it originated.

Surprised at the 51% share on mobile though.
Though I wonder how much overlap there is between mobile and other platforms. I assume there's 80+% overlap.

It was more PC originally but became much bigger on console during the PS3/360 generation. Can't find a breakdown for CoD specifically but Activision Gaming Revenue for 2011:

X360 - $1.14 Billion
PS3 - $935 Million
PC - $374 million

Modern Warfare 3 in 2011 has a revenue of over $1 billion. So console was far bigger. MW3, Blackops and MW2 were the top 3 most played games on Xbox live for that year apparently.

https://investor.activision.com/static-files/0551a30c-3fa4-4629-9f93-0312ccfae1e5

No idea when it switched back to PC having a bigger CoD userbase. Mobile doesn't surprise me. CoD mobile I'd insanely popular.

 

[MisterXDTV]

Their point still stands. In Year #3 Xbox One outsold PS4 for several months in a row.

OK, so the fact that with 2 consoles combined they are trailing behind the lone Xbox One is just normal... Got it...

They put a second $300 console on the market to gain market share and they lost it.

All is great

 

[Imtjnotu]

They would probably lose half of the COD-fanbase instantly if they do that though. Lol

Edit:

Just checked.

PC 17.5M
Playstation 11.2M
Xbox 5.6M.

Still a huge chunck on Playstation. That's a lot of revenue to miss out on and COD alone won't be enough to make people jump ship, apart from a very small minority.

So then why don't they just become a 3rd party publisher and developer.

Would you rather sell games or consoles

 

[Woopah]

OK, so the fact that with 2 consoles combined they are trailing behind the lone Xbox One is just normal... Got it...

They put a second $300 console on the market to gain market share and they lost it.

All is great

......I never said anything like that. Where did you read that in my post?

 

[gow3isben]

Um, folks aren't buying Xbox Series consoles in droves for Game Pass, even when there are PC/Xbox-only games.

As I’ve said they lost the console race so might as well get revenue from opposition. Those who still want consoles for Gamepass can do so

 

[Alan Wake]

Yeah, commercials in US like I said.

Also ms trying to win the holidays. $399 xsx diablo bundle PLUS a $50 giftcard at Best Buy.

Xss 512gb for $239 at Amazon, probably clearing stock.

Fine. But they should know by now that it's not about the money. If it was, the Series S would be the best selling console on the market.

 

[Pelta88]

On Reee... The solution has morphed into putting GP on PS. No joke or jest. GP on PS asap is now crucial.

 

[Brucey]

I think you had to be a Verizon customer and I think it was $200.

$150, for the month of March 2023:

The Xbox Series S just dropped to a lowest-ever $150 for Verizon customers | CNN Underscored

If you’re a Verizon customer and happen to be in the market for a next-gen gaming console, you’re in luck. The carrier is currently offering the Xbox Series S to its subscribers for an absurdly cheap $150, dropping our favorite affordable console down to its lowest-ever price at 50% off.

www.cnn.com

 

[Humdinger]

Great, but we are comparing Year #3 here...

Series X/S came out 3 years ago

It's not just the third year in isolation, though. It's the first three, taken together, at least two of which had strong sales (in the US). Sales didn't fall off a cliff in year 3, either.

The point remains: the comparison here is not to a weak-selling console. The comparison is to a fairly well-selling Xbox console (in the US), during that period.

This was back in the day when I paid attention to console sales threads. I don't much anymore. It's mostly console warrioring, and I don't care who wins anymore.

 

[zedinen]

Xbox is on track to knock Sony PlayStation down to third place for the first time in history

With combined Activision and Xbox revenues, Sony PlayStation may be looking at a third-place spot behind Microsoft for the first time.

PlayStation has overtaken Tencent.

USD figures have been converted from Japanese Yen and RMB using the exchange rates provided by Sony and Tencent in their earning releases.

Source:

Sony

Sony exchange rates

Tencent 4Q2022 (Tencent exchange rate)

Tencent 1Q2023 (Tencent exchange rate)

Tencent 2Q023 (Tencent exchange rate)

Tencent 3Q2023 (Tencent exchange rate)


Reality:

MIcrosoft 10-Q

Microsoft (Jul-Sep) 22

Microsoft (Oct-Dec) 22

Microsoft (Jan-Mar) 23

Microsoft FY23

Microsoft (Jul-Sep) 22

 

[Heisenberg007]

Xbox is on track to knock Sony PlayStation down to third place for the first time in history



PlayStation has overtaken Tencent.

USD figures have been converted from Japanese Yen and RMB using the exchange rates provided by Sony and Tencent in their earning releases.

Source:

Sony

Sony exchange rates

Tencent 4Q2022 (Tencent exchange rate)

Tencent 1Q2023 (Tencent exchange rate)

Tencent 2Q023 (Tencent exchange rate)

Tencent 3Q2023 (Tencent exchange rate)


Reality:

MIcrosoft 10-Q

Microsoft (Jul-Sep) 22

Microsoft (Oct-Dec) 22

Microsoft (Jan-Mar) 23

Microsoft FY23

Microsoft (Jul-Sep) 22

Xbox realizing they will be back to the 3rd spot.

 

[yazenov]

Xbox realizing they will be back to the 3rd spot.

Even with that $70 Billion purchase, they are still 3rd in revenue. They can't win with any metric used. I bet even with the "engagement" metric, they will still be in 3rd place .

 

[yurinka]

Xbox is on track to knock Sony PlayStation down to third place for the first time in history



PlayStation has overtaken Tencent.

USD figures have been converted from Japanese Yen and RMB using the exchange rates provided by Sony and Tencent in their earning releases.

Source:

Sony

Sony exchange rates

Tencent 4Q2022 (Tencent exchange rate)

Tencent 1Q2023 (Tencent exchange rate)

Tencent 2Q023 (Tencent exchange rate)

Tencent 3Q2023 (Tencent exchange rate)


Reality:

MIcrosoft 10-Q

Microsoft (Jul-Sep) 22

Microsoft (Oct-Dec) 22

Microsoft (Jan-Mar) 23

Microsoft FY23

Microsoft (Jul-Sep) 22

Interesting. And Sony will have a monster Q3 now they aren't supply constrained, Spider-Man 2, etc. We also have to remember that Sony has additional gaming business under other divisions (Lasengle, Aniplex, Crunchyroll games, etc).

How would this look like if adding the ABK numbers of that last year on top of the MS ones? As far as I know I'd be something like this, but I didn't found the ABK revenue of the most recent quarter:

 

[jroc74]

Xbox is on track to knock Sony PlayStation down to third place for the first time in history



PlayStation has overtaken Tencent.

USD figures have been converted from Japanese Yen and RMB using the exchange rates provided by Sony and Tencent in their earning releases.

Source:

Sony

Sony exchange rates

Tencent 4Q2022 (Tencent exchange rate)

Tencent 1Q2023 (Tencent exchange rate)

Tencent 2Q023 (Tencent exchange rate)

Tencent 3Q2023 (Tencent exchange rate)


Reality:

MIcrosoft 10-Q

Microsoft (Jul-Sep) 22

Microsoft (Oct-Dec) 22

Microsoft (Jan-Mar) 23

Microsoft FY23

Microsoft (Jul-Sep) 22

Interesting.

Passing Tencent is....something.

 

[zedinen]

Interesting. And Sony will have a monster Q3 now they aren't supply constrained, Spider-Man 2, etc. We also have to remember that Sony has additional gaming business under other divisions (Lasengle, Aniplex, Crunchyroll games, etc).

How would this look like if adding the ABK numbers of that last year on top of the MS ones? As far as I know I'd be something like this, but I didn't found the ABK revenue of the most recent quarter:

For the year ended December 31, 2022, Activision Blizzard’s net revenues presented in accordance with GAAP were $7.53 billion, as compared with $8.80 billion for 2021.

 

[Sw0pDiller]

Why would I want an Xbox console if I can play their games on PC at much better settings? I just need Sony to do the same shit and release their games day one on PC. I'd gladly get rid of their console too.

No my pc, and most pc owners me thinks?

 

[Sw0pDiller]

i think they will go "3rd Party" with Gamepass and enable it even on Sony and Nintendo and only for ms titles as a Cloud edition.

I think ms Will try to demand a gamepass launcher on next gen PlayStation and Nintendo hardware. Or else they will not publish their games to those systems.

 

[HeWhoWalks]

Why would I want an Xbox console if I can play their games on PC at much better settings? I just need Sony to do the same shit and release their games day one on PC. I'd gladly get rid of their console too.

Exactly why they won't do that. The console is a critical part of their business and they should keep it just as it is.

 

[yurinka]

For the year ended December 31, 2022, Activision Blizzard’s net revenues presented in accordance with GAAP were $7.53 billion, as compared with $8.80 billion for 2021.

Interesting. So even if ABK this jul-sep 23 quarter would have performed even better and making $9B for the last 4 quarters, MS would countinue 3rd behind Sony and Tencent.

Why would I want an Xbox console if I can play their games on PC at much better settings? I just need Sony to do the same shit and release their games day one on PC. I'd gladly get rid of their console too.

Because a console is way cheaper than the PC needed to run games at the same or better settings, you don't need to worry about drivers etc.

MS moved their focus away from their own console because it was the last one in the market, and they own Windows -plus other PC and server or subs stuff, their main business- so wanted to focus more on PC and subs instead.

Sony is the market leader of consoles and of gaming and are growing a lot. Their strategy is doing wonders, so it wouldn't make sense to do something that would damage their main business: selling games for their console. Porting some of their games 2 yearas or more after their original launch on PC doesn't negatively affect them, but to port all and to do it day one pretty likely would negatively affect their console.

 

[Bungie]

The phil obsession even on the first page is too funny to read. It all sounds like "mmm yeah you like that phil" how does that make you feel phil" "you fail so hard Phil" "quit phil quit".
Just seems so personal, did he hurt your gamer ego people?!

 

[MasterCornholio]

The phil obsession even on the first page is too funny to read. It all sounds like "mmm yeah you like that phil" how does that make you feel phil" "you fail so hard Phil" "quit phil quit".
Just seems so personal, did he hurt your gamer ego people?!

Oh yeah you do love Phil. Why don't you marry him and bear his children?



I'm just messing with you.

 

[Bungie]

Oh yeah you do love Phil. Why don't you marry him and bear his children?



I'm just messing with you.

I'm desperate at this point, Anyone have the monthly metrics on Phils cornholio?

 

[MasterCornholio]

I'm desperate at this point, Anyone have the monthly metrics on Phils cornholio?

You mean his sperm count?

 

[zedinen]

Xbox realizing they will be back to the 3rd spot.

Interesting. So even if ABK this jul-sep 23 quarter would have performed even better and making $9B for the last 4 quarters, MS would countinue 3rd behind Sony and Tencent.

Yep.

Hardware is the key to success.

Microsoft executives know that Xbox hardware sales drive subscriptions and software sales, which is why they are aiming to nearly double current hardware revenue by 2030 (CAGR +8%)

In order to achieve this goal, their gaming business had a $1.5 billion hardware subsidy in FY21 (their largest ever)

 

[Heisenberg007]

Yep.

Hardware is the key to success.

Microsoft executives know that Xbox hardware sales drive subscriptions and software sales, which is why they are aiming to nearly double current hardware revenue by 2030 (CAGR +8%)

In order to achieve this goal, their gaming business had a $1.5 billion hardware subsidy in FY21 (their largest ever)

By the way, sidebar ... but it's interesting that they say they want to only double their subscription revenue by 2030, from $3.9 billion to $7.8 billion.

Does this mean they are expecting only 50 million Game Pass subscribers (up from the current 25 million subscribers)? And what does this mean in the context of Phil's court testimony that they need 100 million subscribers by 2027.

 

[mckmas8808]

Yep.

Hardware is the key to success.

Microsoft executives know that Xbox hardware sales drive subscriptions and software sales, which is why they are aiming to nearly double current hardware revenue by 2030 (CAGR +8%)

In order to achieve this goal, their gaming business had a $1.5 billion hardware subsidy in FY21 (their largest ever)

How many consoles world-wide did Xbox sell in 2021? We can deduce how much per console they lost, now that we know they lost $1.5 Billion in that "subsidy".

By the way, sidebar ... but it's interesting that they say they want to only double their subscription revenue by 2030, from $3.9 billion to $7.8 billion.

Does this mean they are expecting only 50 million Game Pass subscribers (up from the current 25 million subscribers)? And what does this mean in the context of Phil's court testimony that they need 100 million subscribers by 2027.

Or maybe they know they will increase the price of GamePass, but realize that they may be stuck in the 40 million users land.

 

[Chronicle]

I mean at this point MS have bought Activision for mutually assured distruction and that's all. They're not trying to win.

 

[Thick Thighs Save Lives]

How many consoles world-wide did Xbox sell in 2021? We can deduce how much per console they lost, now that we know they lost $1.5 Billion in that "subsidy".



Or maybe they know they will increase the price of GamePass, but realize that they may be stuck in the 40 million users land.

8M units according to Statista. That means an average of ~$185 subsidy per each console sold during that year. Yikes.

 

[mckmas8808]

8M units according to Statista. That means an average of ~$185 subsidy per each console sold during that year. Yikes.

Seems to fall right in line with what Phil said years ago. I think he said they were losing $200 per console on one version and $300 per console on another version. But we never found out which console was which. I'm assuming this data points toward it must have been the Series S that's losing $200 per console now.

The math doesn't seem to work, if it was the other way around.

 

[skit_data]

8M units according to Statista. That means an average of ~$185 subsidy per each console sold during that year. Yikes.

Ooof, thats a pretty huge amount per console but it kinda makes sense given that Sony said each console as profitable only to later say it wasn't again due to shipping cost etc. (IIRC). The Series consoles must've went even further into minus in terms of profit/console.

Imagine if they went for a design similar to Series X for example, I doubt they'd be able to produce the consoles at the same rate. Xbox is essentially close to PS3 costs per manufactured console. And that cost almost sunk all of Sony.

 

[mckmas8808]

Ooof, thats a pretty huge amount per console but it kinda makes sense given that Sony said each console as profitable only to later say it wasn't again due to shipping cost etc. (IIRC).

Imagine if they went for a design similar to Series X for example, I doubt they'd be able to produce the consoles at the same rate. Xbox is essentially close to PS3 costs per manufactured console. And that cost almost sunk all of Sony.

It makes sense why MS had to raise the price of the Xbox Series consoles too, even though they are selling less now compared to last year. Many don't understand just how bad of a dilemma the Xbox brass is in. It'll take a genius to get Xbox back to the 360 days.

 

[skit_data]

It makes sense why MS had to raise the price of the Xbox Series consoles too, even though they are selling less now compared to last year. Many don't understand just how bad of a dilemma the Xbox brass is in. It'll take a genius to get Xbox back to the 360 days.

Yeah, in terms of consoles it really looks dire if they indeed lose that amount of money per console. And Playstation are really really lucky to have Cerny design the GPU in the way he did because the cost of that wider design really racks up, a factor that wasn't in play during the design of the hardware.

 

[Heisenberg007]

Ooof, thats a pretty huge amount per console but it kinda makes sense given that Sony said each console as profitable only to later say it wasn't again due to shipping cost etc. (IIRC). The Series consoles must've went even further into minus in terms of profit/console.

Imagine if they went for a design similar to Series X for example, I doubt they'd be able to produce the consoles at the same rate. Xbox is essentially close to PS3 costs per manufactured console. And that cost almost sunk all of Sony.

I don't think Sony ever said anything about PS5 not being profitable again.

PS5 is a more smartly designed system with only 36 CUs. The lower cost of production helped Sony reached profitability quite soon (in line with the PS4's timeline). On the other hand, Xbox Series X is not as efficient and, therefore, has a higher cost of production. It also goes in line with Xbox's history; Microsoft has confirmed that they have never made any profit on any Xbox hardware ever.

 

[HeWhoWalks]

And that cost almost sunk all of Sony.

Nah. They were in bad shape, but when you really go back and review everything, the company wasn't almost sunk. The PlayStation business was really injured, though.

 

[Brucey]

Seems to fall right in line with what Phil said years ago. I think he said they were losing $200 per console on one version and $300 per console on another version. But we never found out which console was which. I'm assuming this data points toward it must have been the Series S that's losing $200 per console now.

The math doesn't seem to work, if it was the other way around.

It was $100 to $200 so within that previous range.

 

[iHaunter]

If I can get XCloud on my Sony A95K. I'll get GamePass again. Your move Phil.

 

[mckmas8808]

It was $100 to $200 so within that previous range.

Oh thanks for the correction! I remember people said that we didn't understand what Phil was saying here and that those figures were for all Xbox consoles combined. Clearly he was talking about this Generations of Xbox consoles.

 

[iHaunter]

It was obvious the moment GamePass was introduced.

"You don't need an Xbox to enjoy Xbox games"

PR doesn't get dumber if you have consoles to sell. Especially since you already started to make your console less interesting by releasing all games on PC day 1 and your main competitor has been killing it for years.

Then again, I've always believed Spencer was put in place to guide the transition from console "giant" to 3rd party publisher.

That's also a bit of an issue. They're heavily losing in the subscriber aspect as well. Xbox has a little over 30 million Game Pass subscriber's vs Sony's almost 50 million PS+ subscribers.

So, they're losing in all aspects of their business. Value vs Studio Investment. Subscription services. Quality of Software. Hardware sales. You name it. They're losing in it.

 

[Crispy Gamer]

If I can get XCloud on my Sony A95K. I'll get GamePass again. Your move Phil.

Just got the same tv and love it

 

[S0ULZB0URNE]

If I can get XCloud on my Sony A95K. I'll get GamePass again. Your move Phil.

Not happening.

You need Samsung for that.

 

[ArcaneNLSC]

I don't think Sony ever said anything about PS5 not being profitable again.

PS5 is a more smartly designed system with only 36 CUs. The lower cost of production helped Sony reached profitability quite soon (in line with the PS4's timeline). On the other hand, Xbox Series X is not as efficient and, therefore, has a higher cost of production. It also goes in line with Xbox's history; Microsoft has confirmed that they have never made any profit on any Xbox hardware ever.

Wasn't the early rumors before the consoles were announced that the PS5 had the higher production costs?

 

[lh032]

Last Xbox fortress.

 

[Heisenberg007]

Wasn't the early rumors before the consoles were announced that the PS5 had the higher production costs?

No, the opposite.

 

[skit_data]

Nah. They were in bad shape, but when you really go back and review everything, the company wasn't almost sunk. The PlayStation business was really injured, though.

Ok, it might not have sunk all of Sony but I think it's safe to say that if they haven't corrected the ship mid gen with the launch of the PS3 "Slim" and really thought things through before launching the PS4 we would be looking at a very much different Sony today since Playstation encompasses a pretty large part of their business.
It could have gone way worse if they just stubbornly kept making PS3 Phat models, never changed the node process etc.

 

[Three]

By the way, sidebar ... but it's interesting that they say they want to only double their subscription revenue by 2030, from $3.9 billion to $7.8 billion.

Does this mean they are expecting only 50 million Game Pass subscribers (up from the current 25 million subscribers)? And what does this mean in the context of Phil's court testimony that they need 100 million subscribers by 2027.

There will be plenty of time for price increases by 2030 so I'm not sure they expect a doubling of subscribers with the revenue increase.

 

[Unknown Soldier]

Um, folks aren't buying Xbox Series consoles in droves for Game Pass, even when there are PC/Xbox-only games.

The issue is that Microsoft doesn't understand the cart goes behind the horse.

People don't buy hardware just to access a service. They might already own the hardware, and then the company tries to sell them a service to increase revenue from the product. This is what Apple does, you already own the iPhone, and then if you do then maybe you would like Apple TV+ and Apple Music. Apple doesn't try and force you to buy an iPhone to access Apple TV+ and Apple Music, you can watch Apple TV+ on every hardware you can think of and there's an Android app for Apple Music and Apple is actually planning on bringing an Apple TV app to Android too.

Nobody is going to buy an Xbox to access Gamepass. This is why Netflix doesn't try to sell their own Netflix Box which is the exclusive hardware to access Netflix. It's a service, tying it to a hardware product is the opposite of what you want if you want more people to use your service. Microsoft trying to have both a hardware platform and a service like this is completely fundamentally self contradictory. Everyone who has a service, be it Disney+, or Netflix, or Apple TV+, want to make sure it is as widely available as possible on all devices which could conceivably access it.

Microsoft either has to give up on Gamepass being exclusive to Xbox, or give up on the hardware platform Xbox itself. Otherwise they will continue to fail at both being a platform holder and a service company.

 

[ArcaneNLSC]

No, the opposite.

Ahh my bad I thought the PS5 had the higher BOM costs in early reports