Shadow of the BEAST said:
I think vita will do good in the west for the first year. After that not so much.
In japan though. I think it will be crushing everything.
I really hope the support in west is good enought to get the localization. But i doubt it. So i hope we get good ports on ps3.
In the west I agree it will start off good as all hardware launches do, but will getting destroyed by the 3DS. However, I believe this time Vita is going to get much more western developer support due easy porting, reusing game engines and assets from iPhone, Android, PS3, 360 and PC. We have already got tons of middleware engines announced for Vita, and many western devs like Epic seem to be excited for the thing. In this day and age developers are multiplatform centric, they try to port software on as many systems as possible, hell we got Dead Space game for iPhone/iPad. We are already seeing this happening with iPad/iPhone game ports for Vita being underdevelopment (that racing game) as well as you typical console games that share the same assets on Vita (Virtua Tennis, SFxT and etc). We have to remember Vita is the most developer friendly hardware Sony has ever made. Remember western games support is usually shitty on handhelds, even on DS, their are a few exception with games like Scribblenauts, but the majority of big titles for handhelds were always japanese (Mario, Bran Training, Nintendogs, Pokemon, Monster Hunter), so I wonder if Vita changes this. So this could be a case of 3DS selling more, but Vita still getting more western games support, just like Wii is selling more than PS3, but PS3 gets more western games support
As for Japan, both Vita and 3DS will be huge success, as handhelds are more popular in Japan in general. 3DS had a bad start and is already getting outsold by PSP, however I am sure Nintendo will rectify this with the price cut and better software. As for Vita I am sure they can transfer the success over from PSP to Vita, but the case is how fast that will happen. All they need is Japan developer support, and Sony has said developing on Vita is a cheap as developing on PSP, also now Japanese developers can finally make higher budget games if they want to without taking a risk too much by making a game for both Vita and PS3, the reason japanese didn't make many PS3 games was because it was expensive and consoles are not as much successful as handhelds, we are already seeing PS3/Vita games with games like Dragons Crown and SFxT.