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PoliGAF 2011: Of Weiners, Boehners, Santorum, and Teabags

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ToxicAdam said:

A specific plan or a series of proposals, many of which we know about already. I watched the speech, and while it was a good performance I couldn't help but think...dems had the senate, congress, and WH not long ago and didn't touch these "job creator" ideas that will work "right now" as Obama said. There was no emphasis on jobs at the time. A payroll tax holiday is something that could have been done back in 09; it's not like blue dogs objected to that. The same with the patent legislation. I'm not as sure about the trade deals, don't know what politics were involved there, but regardless they weren't pursued at the time.

You'd think dems would have been thinking hey, if the economy doesn't improve, we're all fucked...therefore lets get some shit done we can run on. But that didn't happen, and I'm still baffled at why. Obama's presidency would look quite differently if democrats rammed through some good legislation when they had the supermajority.
 
PhoenixDark said:
You'd think dems would have been thinking hey, if the economy doesn't improve, we're all fucked...therefore lets get some shit done we can run on. But that didn't happen, and I'm still baffled at why. Obama's presidency would look quite differently if democrats rammed through some good legislation when they had the supermajority.
The supermajority was but an illusion. 4 to 6 in the senate were basically Republicans from 1980s.
 
RustyNails said:
The supermajority was but an illusion. 4 to 6 in the senate were basically Republicans from 1980s.

That may have doomed a public option or Medicare buy-in, but the proposals Obama is pushing now are quite moderate ones that could have easily passed when dems had a super majority. Payroll tax, patent protection, etc. Hell, more infrastructure spending might have been a possibility; there would be complaints about spending, but jobs trump deficit complaints.

Also, I think the DREAM act could have been rammed through if it was made a priority.
 

sc0la

Unconfirmed Member
Beam said:
And the IRS don´t? That´s really bizarre. All this taxes and deductions should be automatic. It will save a lot of time and effort on the long run.

Another good answer for progressives is that pre-removing income tax from federal employees should be avoided in the same manner that means testing for SSI or Medicare. It just creates a wedge between the elligible and non-elligible groups that hyper-conservatives would use as an excuse to dismantle it.

A whole massive employment sector would get demonized (more than it already is) for "Not paying income taxes." They already get slandered for living off the "government teet"
 

Evlar

Banned
If you really want to understand the role of Fannie and Freddie in the sub-prime meltdown I think this article on Calculated Risk is a pretty fair analysis.

Synopsis: Fannie and Freddie wanted to get in, they pushed the boundaries as far as they could, but they were ultimately blocked by the regulations and stipulations governing their charter: the very kind of government regulation that this morality tale is supposed to warn us against in the libertarian re-invention of the crisis. Thus they were a small player in the sub-prime world when the crisis struck. Their biggest sins were to provide excess liquidity in the rest of the market with special preference to the largest private players, spreading the misery further than necessary when the game of musical chairs came to an abrupt end.

But they didn't like losing their market share, and they pushed the envelope on credit quality as far as they could inside the constraints of their charter: they got into "near prime" programs (Fannie's "Expanded Approval," Freddie's "A Minus") that, at the bottom tier, were hard to distinguish from regular old "subprime" except--again--that they were overwhelmingly fixed-rate "non-toxic" loan structures. They got into "documentation relief" in a big way through their automated underwriting systems, offering "low doc" loans that had a few key differences from the really wretched "stated" and "NINA" crap of the last several years, but occasionally the line between the two was rather thin. Again, though, whatever they bought in the low-doc world was overwhelmingly fixed rate (or at least longer-term hybrid amortizing ARMs), lower-LTV, and, of course, back in the day, of "conforming" loan balance, which kept the worst of the outright fraudulent loans out of the pile. Lots of people lied about their income (with or without collusion by their lender) in order to borrow $500,000 to buy an overpriced house in a bubble market. They weren't borrowing $500,000 from the GSEs.

Furthermore, both GSEs were major culprits in the growth of the mega-lenders. Over the years they were struggling so hard to maintain market share, they were allowing themselves to experience huge concentration risks. As they catered more and more to their "major partners"--Countrywide, Wells Fargo, WaMu, the usual suspects--they helped sustain and worsen the "aggregator" model in which smaller lenders sold loans not to the GSEs but to CFC or WFC, who then sold the loans to the GSEs. In large measure this was a function of pricing: the aggregators got the best pricing from the GSEs--the lowest guarantee fees, the best execution options--making it more attractive for a number of reasons for small lenders to sell to the aggregators.

The mentality at the GSEs seemed to many of us to have become too focused on letting these "deep pocket" mega-players continue to push the GSEs toward low doc, "near subprime," interest-only ARMs, low-down loans with iffy subordinate financing, etc. If you were Podunk National, you weren't going to get a master commitment with the GSEs to sell "fast and easy" doc-lite ARMs with a razor-thin guarantee fee. But if you were HSBC, you got that, and so Podunk either lost market share or made those loans and sold them to HSBC, who sold them to the GSEs. From the GSE's side it looked like they had the balance sheet and servicer strength of HSBC--or CFC or WFC or BAC or whoever--on the other side of those loan sales. From Podunk's side it often looked like you could take advantage of the GSEs' power to keep the mortgage market liquid only by consolidating the gargantuan servicing portfolios of the 800 pound gorillas, whose seemingly endless appetite for higher and higher-risk products made it hard for you to compete with conservative vanilla offerings.

I think we can give Fannie and Freddie their due share of responsibility for the mess we're in, while acknowledging that they were nowhere near the biggest culprits in the recent credit bubble. They may finance most of the home loans in America, but most of the home loans in America aren't the problem; the problem is that very substantial slice of home loans that went outside the Fannie and Freddie box. But Krugman is right to focus on the fact that it was the regulatory and charter constraints of the GSEs that kept that box closed. In the schizoid reality of the GSEs, when they had their "shareholder-owned private company" hats on they did plenty of envelope-pushing. When they had their "affordable housing" hats on, they rationalized dubious theories of credit quality--like the fervent belief that low or no down payment can be fully offset by a pretty FICO score--to beef up their affordable housing goals, often at the expense not of the poor put-upon "private sector" but of FHA, whose traditional borrower pool they pretty thoroughly cherry-picked. Nonetheless, the immovable objects of the conforming loan limits and the charter limitation of taking only loans with a maximum LTV of 80% unless a well-capitalized mortgage insurer took the first loss position, plus all their other regulatory strictures, managed fairly well against the irresistible force of "innovation." If there has ever been an argument for serious regulation of the mortgage markets, the GSEs are it.
Read the rest of it for a necessary refresher on recent history.
 

Mardak

Member
Mike M said:
Oh jesus, are we back to blaming the Community Reinvestment Act again?
No. The fault is on the Federal Reserve Act in 1913 where section 14(b)(2) allowed the Federal Reserve to..

"To buy and sell in the open market, under the direction and regulations of the Federal Open Market Committee, any obligation which is a direct obligation of, or fully guaranteed as to principal and interest by, any agency of the United States."

Where a number of laws many years later introduced Freddie and Fannie agencies after the creation of the Federal Reserve and also allowed GSE obligations to move around through 1) Federal National Mortgage Association Charter Act, 2) Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation Act, 3) Federal Home Loan Bank Act, 4) Home Owners’ Loan Act, 5) Federal Credit Union Act.

Why should the Federal Reserve be allowed to remove the risk from the GSEs to keep allowing purchasing of risky assets? Another way to phrase that is, if you were the GSEs, why wouldn't you want to keep making money as you get to keep profits and dump debts to the Federal Reserve?
 
Mardak said:
No. The fault is on the Federal Reserve Act in 1913 where section 14(b)(2) allowed the Federal Reserve to..

"To buy and sell in the open market, under the direction and regulations of the Federal Open Market Committee, any obligation which is a direct obligation of, or fully guaranteed as to principal and interest by, any agency of the United States."

Where a number of laws many years later introduced Freddie and Fannie agencies after the creation of the Federal Reserve and also allowed GSE obligations to move around through 1) Federal National Mortgage Association Charter Act, 2) Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation Act, 3) Federal Home Loan Bank Act, 4) Home Owners’ Loan Act, 5) Federal Credit Union Act.

Why should the Federal Reserve be allowed to remove the risk from the GSEs to keep allowing purchasing of risky assets? Another way to phrase that is, if you were the GSEs, why wouldn't you want to keep making money as you get to keep profits and dump debts to the Federal Reserve?

Can you articulate what any of this has to do with the financial crisis of 2008? You appear to just be relaying information randomly.

See here.
 

Mardak

Member
empty vessel said:
Can you articulate what any of this has to do with the financial crisis of 2008?
They're relevant because GSEs like Freddie and Fannie were not only getting billions of federal subsidies in the years leading up to the bubble/crash, they also knew that were they to crash, the Federal Reserve and Treasury would take care of them.

And sure enough in 2008, the Federal Reserve and Treasury purchased almost $200 billion of GSE debt and stock.

Greedy people do crazy things when they don't have to worry about risk.

The Federal Reserve printed out money to cover the GSE debts.
The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates that lead to people taking loans for mortgages.
The Federal Reserve increased interest rates that popped ARMs.
 

Evlar

Banned
Mardak said:
They're relevant because GSEs like Freddie and Fannie were not only getting billions of federal subsidies in the years leading up to the bubble/crash, they also knew that were they to crash, the Federal Reserve and Treasury would take care of them.

And sure enough in 2008, the Federal Reserve and Treasury purchased almost $200 billion of GSE debt and stock.

Greedy people do crazy things when they don't have to worry about risk.

The Federal Reserve printed out money to cover the GSE debts.
The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates that lead to people taking loans for mortgages.
The Federal Reserve increased interest rates that popped ARMs.
Countrywide? Ameriquest? Yoo-hooo.... were you perchance asleep from 1998 to 2008?

EDIT: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Np1XDRRsSM Does this jog your memory? Hello?
 
Evlar said:
Countrywide? Ameriquest? Yoo-hooo.... were you perchance asleep from 1998 to 2008?

EDIT: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Np1XDRRsSM Does this jog your memory? Hello?
Yeah . . . but a small percentage of the subprime loans were government backed so obviously that was problem. Did you see the word government? That clearly means the problem was that . . . government. Just ignore that 'small percentage' part which is more meaningful and you'll understand that is all the government's fault.
 

Piecake

Member
speculawyer said:
Yeah . . . but a small percentage of the subprime loans were government backed so obviously that was problem. Did you see the word government? That clearly means the problem was that . . . government. Just ignore that 'small percentage' part which is more meaningful and you'll understand that is all the government's fault.

And lets also ignore the fact that mortgage companies were handing out loans left and right to people who simply could not afford them, no matter what the interest rate was. I mean, were they just so blinded by how much money they were making off of mortgage backed securities and credit default swaps that they were shocked when people who were in massive debt or didnt put any money down couldn't pay their mortgage?
 
ToxicAdam said:
Oh boo hoo. You and every other weepy vagina in America.

well I could blow my brains out like hunter s thompson and go down with the ship, but i'd like to travel the world anyway and learn more about humanity. seems you are the one whos upset lol... I'm simply stating the obvious... a no brain perry becoming our next president, someone that doesn't bring anything new to politics aside from continuing to destroy the middle class and corrupt/pollute the system more, is simply confirming my fear... america has lost its soul.
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Was watching the daily show, and it occurred to me that I never heard Perry speak. Holy shit, does he sound like friiggin dubya! Obama doesn't even need to worry at this point.
 

scorcho

testicles on a cold fall morning
i think a few days in that, with this type of media coverage, it's Rick Perry's race to lose. he excites where Romney doesn't, is a quote machine and political shit-stirrer of the highest order, and my god that hair!
 
scorcho said:
i think a few days in that, with this type of media coverage, it's Rick Perry's race to lose. he excites where Romney doesn't, is a quote machine and political shit-stirrer of the highest order, and my god that hair!
Whatever happened with his big ol' day of prayer? I heard so much about it in the lead up to it, but nothing about it after it happened.
 

ToxicAdam

Member
scorcho said:
i think a few days in that, with this type of media coverage, it's Rick Perry's race to lose. he excites where Romney doesn't, is a quote machine and political shit-stirrer of the highest order, and my god that hair!


Quote machine or gaffe machine? I guess it depends on your viewpoint.

To me, the only advantage Perry has is the fact that he is an unknown quantity to most people whereas most people already know what Romney is about. It was a big driver in the success of Obama in 2008, allowing him to carefully tiptoed his way through that primary without throwing bombs or committing gaffes.

Perry has the type of personality where people can quickly drive up the negatives on him (like Palin).

Karma Kramer said:
I'm simply stating the obvious... a no brain perry becoming our next president, someone that doesn't bring anything new to politics aside from continuing to destroy the middle class and corrupt/pollute the system more, is simply confirming my fear... america has lost its soul.


Not trying to diminish your fears, but this has been the plaintive cry of every liberal since the nomination of Nixon. I'm not sure how effective it is in driving people to the polls. Democrats seem to lose when they are trying to play off the fears of 'the other'.

Personally, the outcome of a presidential election has had little effect on my life. Definitely not enough for to consider suicide or throwing it all away and becoming a worldly vagabond.

So, while I don't think Perry is the best choice for America. Putting it in historical perspective, it's not the climactic event you seem to propose it to be.
 
scorcho said:
i think a few days in that, with this type of media coverage, it's Rick Perry's race to lose. he excites where Romney doesn't, is a quote machine and political shit-stirrer of the highest order, and my god that hair!
Right wing primary quote machine
General election gaffe machine
 

Snaku

Banned
Dave Inc. said:
Whatever happened with his big ol' day of prayer? I heard so much about it in the lead up to it, but nothing about it after it happened.

So...it had the same results as normal praying then.
 

Measley

Junior Member
PhoenixDark said:
A specific plan or a series of proposals, many of which we know about already. I watched the speech, and while it was a good performance I couldn't help but think...dems had the senate, congress, and WH not long ago and didn't touch these "job creator" ideas that will work "right now" as Obama said. There was no emphasis on jobs at the time. A payroll tax holiday is something that could have been done back in 09; it's not like blue dogs objected to that. The same with the patent legislation. I'm not as sure about the trade deals, don't know what politics were involved there, but regardless they weren't pursued at the time.

You'd think dems would have been thinking hey, if the economy doesn't improve, we're all fucked...therefore lets get some shit done we can run on. But that didn't happen, and I'm still baffled at why. Obama's presidency would look quite differently if democrats rammed through some good legislation when they had the supermajority.

Because of the rise of the tea party and the fear among many "blue dogs" that they wouldn't get re-elected if they completely followed the president's plans. Ironically a lot of those blue dog dems didn't get re-elected anyway, even when they attempted to run away from Obama's "socialist schemes".

Also let's not forget the record number of filibusters performed by Republicans in the senate, and outright sabotage of job bills from the House GOP from 2009-2011. Here's just a sample of the jobs bills that were stalled or killed in by the GOP;

http://www.addictinginfo.org/2011/01/03/bills-republicans-have-blocked/
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Senate-blocks-bill-that-apf-2539258145.html?x=0
http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2010/07/30/republicans-block-bill-to-aid-small-business/
http://www.theatlanticwire.com/politics/2010/05/how-porn-killed-the-democratic-jobs-bill/24452/
 

Cubsfan23

Banned
Oblivion said:
Was watching the daily show, and it occurred to me that I never heard Perry speak. Holy shit, does he sound like friiggin dubya! Obama doesn't even need to worry at this point.

yeah I find it funny that people think a texas republican governor would be voted into presidency again
 

gcubed

Member
eznark said:
Talked to my folks this morning and they are ho-hum about today's recalls. I now predict Democrats hold both seats.

I think there would have been massive attention paid to these seats if the dem's gained 3 last week. Now that the GOP holds, there is less attention and pressure.
 

eznark

Banned
gcubed said:
I think there would have been massive attention paid to these seats if the dem's gained 3 last week. Now that the GOP holds, there is less attention and pressure.

Yup, no one cares. Schultz has supposedly been heavily involved in forming the agenda for the next session which will focus on economic issues with very little contention. There was a huge ad buy against Holperin over the weekend that the state party put the kibosh on. They are coasting at this point. Word is the state GOP has decided it gained enough this year and won't rock the boat before what is sure to be a simple 2-4 seat gain in 2012.
 

scorcho

testicles on a cold fall morning
ToxicAdam said:
Quote machine or gaffe machine?
there's a difference for the media? he's gotten more coverage over these last few days than Paul has for, however inconsequential, 2nd place visit in the Iowa beauty pageant.

his quote of Bernake potentially acting treasonous for having the temerity for trying to improve the economy during the presidential season is pure gold for the 24-hour news cycle. it's also gold for Obama during the GE.
 

gcubed

Member
eznark said:
Yup, no one cares. Schultz has supposedly been heavily involved in forming the agenda for the next session which will focus on economic issues with very little contention. There was a huge ad buy against Holperin over the weekend that the state party put the kibosh on. They are coasting at this point. Word is the state GOP has decided it gained enough this year and won't rock the boat before what is sure to be a simple 2-4 seat gain in 2012.
yup, there is no need for them to dump more money into something they dont need to. They hold and redistricting will make sure they gain more in the next elections.

Anyway... why is there so much focus on the job creators when there is no need for jobs. How many times is it going to take for them to realize that if there is no demand, there is no need for more jobs to create supply.
 

Loudninja

Member
gcubed said:
I think there would have been massive attention paid to these seats if the dem's gained 3 last week. Now that the GOP holds, there is less attention and pressure.
Last poll numbers from yesterday
In the 12th district, Democratic state Sen. Jim Holperin leads Republican Kim Simac by 55%-41%, with a ±2.6% margin of error. In the 22nd district, Democratic state Sen. Robert Wirch leads Republican Jonathan Steitz by 55%-42%, with a ±2.9% margin of error.
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/...-dems-lead-in-final-two-wisconsin-recalls.php
 

ToxicAdam

Member
scorcho said:
there's a difference for the media? he's gotten more coverage over these last few days than Paul has for, however inconsequential, 2nd place visit in the Iowa beauty pageant.

There isn't a difference for the media, but there is for the voters. Even the primary voters that initially eat this stuff up will eventually view him as a loose cannon.
 

gcubed

Member

LosDaddie

Banned
I thought you guys would enjoy this...

So, I've ranted about Birther / Limbaugh Parrot / Culture Warrior in-laws before, but it's not just my wife's parents. It's practically her whole family, especially her Govt Hating / Medicare Loving grandma.

Well, to make a long story short, the grandma ran into some financial trouble and now my wife has power of attorney (to sort out the mess) while the grandma lives in assisted living. This means we now receive all the grandma's mail.

So, I go get the mail yesterday, and there's this funny envelope:

2n8xw0x.jpg


and I'm like "Hmm....I wonder what's in here..."

First thing was a nice letter providing some info on the HCR bill:
Page 1
rh7eyu.jpg


Page 2
2ic2ts9.jpg



But here's the actual survery..
Page 1
2ptow0g.jpg


Page 2
j6iwwh.jpg



The non-profit org also was kind enough to include some info on Obama's record:
zjxrpf.jpg


Neat, huh?
 

scorcho

testicles on a cold fall morning
thankfully, i am able to hide my erection under this desk.

on that note, sadly, i am able to hide my erection under this desk.
 

ToxicAdam

Member
Too late in the game for Ryan. No way he runs.

--- /// ---

New Trend? Politicians charging money to meet them in town hall events.

It’s no secret why members of Congress would shy away from holding open town hall meetings – it’s no fun getting yelled at by angry constituents or having an uncomfortable question become an unfortunate YouTube moment.

By outsourcing the events to third parties that charge an entry fee to raise money, members of Congress can eliminate most of the riffraff while still – in some cases – allowing in reporters and TV cameras for a positive local news story.
 

eznark

Banned
ToxicAdam said:
Too late in the game for Ryan. No way he runs.


New Trend? Politicians charging money to meet them in town hall events.

I think it's a vehicle to generate a war chest to get his name out there for 2016 if Perry doesn't pull it off/nominate himself as the front runner for VP if he thinks Perry can win.

Guy is 41 years old. He'll run eventually, may as well start building up the war chest now.
 
I love the fervent desire to "save babies" and its coupling with a "Fuck em. Their parents should have been more responsible" attitude after they're born.
 
I would love to see the people in the Republican establishment who were flaying Obama ca. 2008 for his lack of experience try to get behind a Ryan bid for president.
 

besada

Banned
Invisible_Insane said:
I would love to see the people in the Republican establishment who were flaying Obama ca. 2008 for his lack of experience try to get behind a Ryan bid for president.

Interestingly, I saw a WSJ article the other day that applied the same logic to Bachmann (while conveniently taking a shot at Obama in the process).
 

ToxicAdam

Member
Perry's crony capitalism problem

It's a strong message. But one of the governor's signature economic development initiatives—the Texas Emerging Technology Fund—has lately raised serious questions among some conservatives.

The Emerging Technology Fund was created at Mr. Perry's behest in 2005 to act as a kind of public-sector venture capital firm, largely to provide funding for tech start-ups in Texas. Since then, the fund has committed nearly $200 million of taxpayer money to fund 133 companies

FLEABttn said:
Link is broken.


fixt
 

Mike M

Nick N
Seeing the backlash to the Ryan plan and the subsequent desperation of the Republicans to maneuver the Democrats to vote for Medicare cuts to insulate themselves from attack next year, I don't think the architect of their trouble will be allowed anywhere near the ticket.

Even with Perry's antiestablishment streak, I'd be shocked if he made that large of a misstep with his VP choice.
 
ToxicAdam said:
Did you not post something like this that Ohio was considering to boost their economy? The only problem I could see conservatives having with this is government ownership of a company. I mean they lost their minds when it came to the bailout of the car companies and the banks.

PhoenixDark said:
Perry being Perry
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2...-o.php?ref=fpb

Is this a gaffe or a calculated, red meat attempt
I don't think it's a gaffe. He's just playing to his base. They don't like central planning.
 

ToxicAdam

Member
Dr. Pangloss said:
Did you not post something like this that Ohio was considering to boost their economy? The only problem I could see conservatives having with this is government ownership of a company. I mean they lost their minds when it came to the bailout of the car companies and the banks.

Yes, Ohio's could be twice as large.

Kasich is attempting to circumvent the state constitution by redirecting revenues generated from the liqour tax (100m/yr) and allowing the newly created Board to use them to invest/expand in business in Ohio. Any capital gains made from these investments would be put back into the fund and redistributed. Seems like it could suffer from the same lack of transparency/accountability the Texas plan has.

http://www.fox19.com/story/15161248/reality-check-jobs-ohio-and-state-liquor-money

There will be a legal battle over it.
 

besada

Banned
ToxicAdam said:

It's pretty well known down here that Perry uses the fund to recruit dollars for campaigns, punish his enemies, and pay off his friends.

What I haven't seen anyone comment on is the way Perry has changed the Texas Governorship from a weak role to one with immense power. Because he's been in office for so long, he's been able to appoint someone into every appointed role, so most of the government answers to him, and he's used that to really ratchet up the amount of power the Texas Governor is supposed to have.
 
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