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[TacticalFox88]

Nice work, Lovingsteam!


In the news apparently Gaborn got an interview with Cenk Uygur:

http://videocafe.crooksandliars.com/heather/cenk-uygur-tries-get-goprouds-chris-barron

Holy fuck, that guys a tool. :lol

 

[Jackson50]

When did the other congress officially end their session?

As prescribed by the 20th Amendment, Congressional terms begin at noon on January 3rd. Preceding the 20th Amendment, terms began on March 4th.

 

[Particle Physicist]

If the lame-duck session is reformed, then that means one of the sessions WILL be cut short. So if it happens, I hope it happens during republican control

I really don't see what the issue is though. It's not like either side has a greater advantage during the lame-duck. The only reason why it was so productive this time was because there were a few republicans that voted how they actually wanted to vote instead of how their party told them to vote during the regular session.

 

[SlipperySlope]

They obviously need to either change when the general election happens (talk about the reason to vote on the first Tuesday in November being antiquated) or change when congress gets seated.

I also think the lame duck session is pretty dumb. Among the two options, I vote for #2. Seat them sooner. The problem with moving the elections later is that it will just get too cold for many to vote, and many places can have rain or snow. You want to encourage people to vote, and moving the vote to a colder time of year works against that goal. This year is a good example of "it's just too fucking cold in December to vote".

 

[PhoenixDark]

As expected, it looks as though the GOP will use the raising of the debt-ceiling as a tool to extract 'reforms' on Social Security and entitlements.

The Hill


And I hope the rumors aren't true about Obama trying to out-austerity the GOP at the SOTU.

Given Obama's hostage analogy during the tax debate, we can expect some type of cave to raise the debt limit. Can't wait to see how Boehner handles the crazies in his caucus now

 

[SlipperySlope]

As expected, it looks as though the GOP will use the raising of the debt-ceiling as a tool to extract 'reforms' on Social Security and entitlements.

The Hill


And I hope the rumors aren't true about Obama trying to out-austerity the GOP at the SOTU.

I don't see how using debt-ceiling negotiations as a tool to control spending as a bad thing. The great thing is it's a card we can play often until the budget gets under control. Great things can come out of those negotiations.

Who knows, maybe the Democrats will counter with "OK, but we'll also have to cut defense spending".

It could end up being one of the best ways to control spending in the years to come. Hopefully.

 

[Jackson50]

I also think the lame duck session is pretty dumb. Among the two options, I vote for #2. Seat them sooner. The problem with moving the elections later is that it will just get too cold for many to vote, and many places can have rain or snow. You want to encourage people to vote, and moving the vote to a colder time of year works against that goal. This year is a good example of "it's just too fucking cold in December to vote".

We can move ED to a Saturday and at least partially mitigate the weather and more states could implement postal voting similar to Washington and Oregon. Having the beginning of the session precede the holidays seems impractical.

 

[Diablos]

Why are Republicans even going to waste their time with a repeal HCR/FinReg bill? Obama would veto both.

Idiots.

 

[SlipperySlope]

We can move ED to a Saturday and at least partially mitigate the weather and more states could implement postal voting similar to Washington and Oregon. Having the beginning of the session precede the holidays seems impractical.

You know, I never did understand why votes are held on Tuesdays. Is there any logic in why they chose Tuesday when they could have chosen Saturday?

 

[maximum360]

Post stats from the previous thread (top 20 posters). Congratulations, LovingSteam!

Bigsilly 320 graphs and 30 comments/insults.

I hope we can keep most of the nonsense out of this thread.

 

[Jason's Ultimatum]

Reform on SS? Cool. Just remove the cap and voila. Or raise the retirement age by a few years and raise the cap on SS as a compromise is what I'm guessing.

 

[TacticalFox88]

Why are Republicans even going to waste their time with a repeal HCR/FinReg bill? Obama would veto both.

Idiots.

You're talking about the GOP here. They act on emotion, not reason.

 

[Byakuya769]

Bigsilly 320 graphs and 30 comments/insults.

I hope we can keep most of the nonsense out of this thread.

Love him.. or hate him (as you seem to do), he definitely provides good variety to the opinions here. Lay off the "burn him at the stake" stuff.

 

[Diablos]

Excessive pics/graphs do get silly, but where's my CUT TAXES=INFINITE REVENUE jpeg? That's a staple, kids.

 

[maximum360]

Love him.. or hate him (as you seem to do), he definitely provides good variety to the opinions here. Lay off the "burn him at the stake" stuff.

The nonsense comments weren't directly specifically at him but at the others who drop in and cause a stir by repeating Fox News speak and disappear.

 

[Frank the Great]

You're talking about the GOP here. They act on emotion, not reason.

maybe their supporters, but the leadership knows what will win them elections. a prolonged battle about repealing HCR while the economy is in the shitter will not.

if they get a republican president then they may do this (but even then, i doubt it). in any case, they are too smart to try it now. if they do, LOL

 

[Byakuya769]

The nonsense comments weren't directly specifically at him but at the others who drop in and cause a stir by repeating Fox News speak and disappear.

Ah ok, the drive-bys. Yea, they are an annoyance.

 

[ClovingWestbrook]

Ah ok, the drive-bys. Yea, they are an annoyance.

I actually enjoy some of his posts. Its just the condescending crap that pisses me off. At least he stays though unlike some folks who just cut and run.

 

[Ravidrath]

maybe their supporters, but the leadership knows what will win them elections.

The problem is that they have won elections by stoking those emotions. Like much of what they do, they do it for immediate gain and have to pay the consequences later.

In this case, those consequences are the Tea Party: they are effectively a physical manifestation of the emotions and Christian-pandering the GOP nurtured to win the last few elections. All that rhetoric and purity testing created a monster they have to live with now.

 

[GaimeGuy]

Reform on SS? Cool. Just remove the cap and voila. Or raise the retirement age by a few years and raise the cap on SS as a compromise is what I'm guessing.

they won't raise the cap, sadly. They'll just make people work longer :/

 

[TacticalFox88]

They need to raise the cap. Costs of living go up like what, every 2-3 years by like 2 percent?

 

[Jackson50]

You know, I never did understand why votes are held on Tuesdays. Is there any logic in why they chose Tuesday when they could have chosen Saturday?

Saturday was apparently an important working day for many farmers. Sunday is the day of rest. I suppose Tuesday was prosaic enough to warrant the designation.

I actually enjoy some of his posts. Its just the condescending crap that pisses me off. At least he stays though unlike some folks who just cut and run.

He can be condescending. But, conversely, I think some are churlish towards him. Regardless, I think PoliGAF enjoys the conflict. PoliGAF needs a nemesis.

 

[eznark]

Ah ok, the drive-bys. Yea, they are an annoyance.

I like that I got called "drive by" about a dozen times last year. Let me show you this chart...

 

[GhaleonEB]

I just noticed that Polifact has set up a Truth-o-Meter for the GOP leadership, just as they did for Obama's promises from the campaign.

http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/promises/gop-pledge-o-meter/

Pretty neat. I've liked most of their work so far so it's nice to see them branch out.

 

[Byakuya769]

I like that I got called "drive by" about a dozen times last year. Let me show you this chart...

hahaha

 

[TacticalFox88]

I just noticed that Polifact has set up a Truth-o-Meter for the GOP leadership, just as they did for Obama's promises from the campaign.

http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/promises/gop-pledge-o-meter/

Pretty neat. I've liked most of their work so far so it's nice to see them branch out.

Zero Promises and Zero truths?

 

[state-of-the-art]

I just noticed that Polifact has set up a Truth-o-Meter for the GOP leadership, just as they did for Obama's promises from the campaign.

http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/promises/gop-pledge-o-meter/

Pretty neat. I've liked most of their work so far so it's nice to see them branch out.

This should be good.

 

[Y2Kev]

I can't wait until Palin and crew announce. Should be soon, right? April, maybe?

edit: Wow, Hilldawg announced on Jan 20, 2007. So could be soon.

 

[Byakuya769]

I can't wait until Palin and crew announce. Should be soon, right? April, maybe?

Can you imagine the Palin phenomenon explained in non Texas or Virginia school text books 30 years from now? PTA->Tiny Town Mayor->half-term Governor->VP Selection -> HALF TERM Governor->Talking Head-> Reality TV show star -> President -> Queen Princess Czar Ceasar (she created the title)

 

[Jackson50]

I can't wait until Palin and crew announce. Should be soon, right? April, maybe?

edit: Wow, Hilldawg announced on Jan 20, 2007. So could be soon.

Yeah. The Reagan Library is hosting the first debate in the spring, so the potential nominees will announce soon.

 

[Incognito]

Yeah. The Reagan Library is hosting the first debate in the spring, so the potential nominees will announce soon.

Was just gonna say... Anyway, remember the first 2007 Democratic primary debates in March (or was it April..) and Obama getting his clock cleaned? Seems like only yesterday.

 

[ClovingWestbrook]

Was just gonna say... Anyway, remember the first 2007 Democratic primary debates in March (or was it April..) and Obama getting his clock cleaned? Seems like only yesterday.

What is really crazy is that NEXT year is the general election... That is nuts.

 

[Salazar]

Can you imagine the Palin phenomenon explained in non Texas or Virginia school text books 30 years from now? PTA->Tiny Town Mayor->half-term Governor->VP Selection -> HALF TERM Governor->Talking Head-> Reality TV show star -> President -> Queen Princess Czar Ceasar (she created the title)

Robert Paul Wolff might well turn out to be right.

Back in the early seventies [when the late unlamented Richard Nixon was as yet an undisgraced president], I was sitting around with several UMass colleagues gossiping, as was our wont, about a mutual friend. He had just been elevated from the faculty to a Deanship, and we were speculating about what sort of administrator he would be. Since he had not even served as a Department Chair, we had no track record on which to base our speculations, so we were very much at a loss. Then Zina Tillona, a Professor of Italian in the Romance Languages Department [since phased out as part of a long, tragic world-wide assault on the Humanities] offered a bit of folk wisdom that, with the benefit of many years of hindsight, I now recognize as truly profound.

"Well," she said, "most people do most things the way they do most other things."

At first, what she said struck me as being very close to tautological, but as I reflected on it, I began to realize the deep insight of that simple remark. People have styles of behavior, modes of interacting with the world, that are grounded in their character, and a person's style of being manifests itself in small things as much as in large. If a person is perpetually late, lingering with a student in her office rather than promptly moving on to the next student on her appointment list, she will probably continue to be late when it is Deans and Provosts she is dealing with. If a professor's desk is neat and cleared of all papers, with six pencils lined up in a row, their newly sharpened points exactly aligned, then he will almost certainly be punctilious, precise, and obsessively complete in his scholarly work.

I thought of Zina's maxim when trying to puzzle out the political ambitions and intentions of Sarah Palin. Would she run for the Republican presidential nomination? Did she even want to be president? One of my sons, to whom I had long since passed on Zina's folk wisdom, recalled it for me, and went on to suggest that it held the answer to my questions. Palin has held three significant positions in her life: mayor of Alaska, Chair of the Alaska Oil and Gas Commission, and Governor of Alaska. She walked away from the second and third, each time because she saw an opportunity to maximize her fame and personal wealth. She clearly had no interest in actually being Governor of Alaska, nor is there the slightest indication that she wanted actually to be, or even had any idea what was involved in being, Vice-President of the United States. Since most people do most tings the way they do most other things, she will almost certainly run for the nomination, because that is the best way to remain famous and to develop new money-making opportunities without working for them. But should she have early successes in the 2012 primaries, as well she may, she will find some way, before the nomination process is complete, to drop out of the race, presenting herself as a victim of all manner of plots and prejudices. Indeed, even if she secures the nomination, it is a virtual certainty that she will quit the race before she is defeated on election day. That this will cause chaos in the Republican Party will be of no concern to her, for at no time in her entire career has she ever exhibited the slightest loyalty to anyone or anything beyond her own immediate interest.

http://robertpaulwolff.blogspot.com/

 

[Jason's Ultimatum]

What is really crazy is that NEXT year is the general election... That is nuts.

Yeah, I fucking hate it.

 

[Y2Kev]

Well, now that it is just the Republicans running the rat race, the more the better. Longer time for stuff to come out, more (hilarious) debates, more people ganging up on Romney. Omg I can barely contain my excitement.

This field could be boring though. Palin is a joke. We need someone who is a joke but doesn't know it, like Giuliani.

 

[ClovingWestbrook]

Well, now that it is just the Republicans running the rat race, the more the better. Longer time for stuff to come out, more (hilarious) debates, more people ganging up on Romney. Omg I can barely contain my excitement.

This field could be boring though. Palin is a joke. We need someone who is a joke but doesn't know it, like Giuliani.

Honestly, I see this going the same way it went in 2004. Kerry WASN'T the person to defeat Bush. No matter how many folks despised Bush in 2004 and wanted him gone, they weren't ready to hand the keys over to Kerry. I cannot see any Republican candidate who would be able to defeat Obama in 2012. I just can't see it.

 

[Jason's Ultimatum]

Moral values was the key issue for 2004 voters according to the exit polls.

 

[Incognito]

Well, now that it is just the Republicans running the rat race, the more the better. Longer time for stuff to come out, more (hilarious) debates, more people ganging up on Romney. Omg I can barely contain my excitement.

This field could be boring though. Palin is a joke. We need someone who is a joke but doesn't know it, like Giuliani.

Gingrich and Bolton will provide laughs, for sure. It will be interesting to see if Bolton's prominence elevates the pornstache into the cultural mainstream again!

 

[Salazar]

Moral values was the key issue for 2004 voters according to the exit polls.

Motherfucking pleonasm.

 

[Averon]

Palin's not going to make a serious run for pres. She makes too much money as a partisan flame thrower (she's trying to pick a fight with Michelle Obama because of her anti-obesity campaing for kids for crying out loud). She's not going to give that up to be elected in a office where the media will seriously scrutinize her actions, and she has actual responsibility for her actions and words.

I can actually she her making a half-ass run for pres, as that will give her enormous media attention which will help her immensely to squeeze more cash out of her supporters when she eventually quits.

 

[WrathOfOtaibah]

Obama's 2012 chances are going to be tied directly to the economy. The better off the economy is, the better Obama's chances are. Simple as that. Same as the 2010 midterm elections.

Nobody thinks there is a suitable GOP replacement but the machine has yet to start turning to get conservatives and right leaning independents hyped up about a candidate. I can't imagine Palin except for the lulz that will derive from it.

 

[Jason's Ultimatum]

Unemployment seems like it's going to hover above 8% by 2012 according to the Federal Reserve. That's bad news for Obama. It also doesn't help that job creation and cannot keep up with population growth.

 

[Incognito]

Unemployment seems like it's going to hover above 8% by 2012 according to the Federal Reserve. That's bad news for Obama. It also doesn't help that job creation and cannot keep up with population growth.

I agree that 8% is bad, but it shouldn't be viewed in isolation. If, for instance, unemployment is at 8% and steadily falling his chances will obviously be a little strengthened.

 

[Gallbaro]

Unemployment seems like it's going to hover above 8% by 2012 according to the Federal Reserve. That's bad news for Obama. It also doesn't help that job creation and cannot keep up with population growth.

And you can bet those numbers are skewed to the positive because these statistics are as reliable as chinas since the fed is paying a mental game with the population. Trying to use macro indicators to encourage spending.

Also the real number will be higher. Plus large systemic problems from unemployment from both hours, pay and skill utilization.

 

[Averon]

Unemployment seems like it's going to hover above 8% by 2012 according to the Federal Reserve. That's bad news for Obama. It also doesn't help that job creation and cannot keep up with population growth.

For Obama, it's less about the numbers and more about how the public feels. Not to say the numbers aren't important (they are), but many voters vote based on their gut feelings. If the public "feels" the economy getting better and better by Nov 2012, Obama is reelected. I bet most voters don't even know what GDP even means or that UE numbers even exist.

 

[speculawyer]

Unemployment seems like it's going to hover above 8% by 2012 according to the Federal Reserve. That's bad news for Obama. It also doesn't help that job creation and cannot keep up with population growth.

I hope I'm wrong. But I think the economy is going to be shit no matter who is in office and no matter what policies are chosen. I think we are in for a tough haul with the price of oil acting as a drag on virtually everything. Everything in the room you are in right now was transported there by oil. Large numbers of things around you are pretty much oil themselves (plastics, paints, pharmaceuticals, etc.). All the food you eat is farmed with diesel tractors, grown with natural gas fertilizers, protected with oil-based pesticides, wrapped in plastics, and shipped with diesel trucks.

I'm not a doomer that thinks society is going to collapse and we all need to do local farming . . . but I think the economy is going to continue to struggle due to expensive oil since oil really is one of the fundamental energy sources that drives our entire economy.

 

[WrathOfOtaibah]

Unemployment seems like it's going to hover above 8% by 2012 according to the Federal Reserve. That's bad news for Obama. It also doesn't help that job creation and cannot keep up with population growth.

A lot of it is going to rely on perception. If the public feels that there is a significant improvement to the economy between now and November 2012, then I believe he shouldn't have an issue getting re-elected. If all people see are tiny incremental changes, that probably won't be enough. Obama can still win but it is going to be a very tough fight, especially if the public believes his measures were counterproductive.

Hopefully for Obama's sake, some new bubble emerges quickly.

 

[GhaleonEB]

I agree that 8% is bad, but it shouldn't be viewed in isolation. If, for instance, unemployment is at 8% and steadily falling his chances will obviously be a little strengthened.

And history has shown that it's less the absolute measure of the economy as the direction it's moving it. If job growth is stagnant in 2012 with 8% unemployment, that's bad. If it's growing and we're seeing solid job growth each month, but it's 8%, that's a much better situation to be in.

 

[Jason's Ultimatum]

If the economy is going to remain shitty no matter who is president, then we need to do what China is doing, and that's a HUGE push in infrastructure spending, like what China is doing in modernizing their infrastructure, bioscience, and electric batteries.

But that won't happen since we're bogged down in two fucking disastrous wars.

EDIT-Not to mention that as Spec mentioned, oil price can be a problem for our economy. Same with health care. As much as the new HCR improves our current system, I do wish we had a single-payer. It would stimulate our economy.

 

[TacticalFox88]

If the economy is going to remain shitty no matter who is president, then we need to do what China is doing, and that's a HUGE push in infrastructure spending, like what China is doing in modernizing their infrastructure, bioscience, and electric batteries.

But that won't happen since we're bogged down in two fucking disastrous wars.

Its amazing how 8 years can screw a country for generations