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PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread

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Wait, he was indicted in the US for his role in the Cole bombing (where 17 sailors died) yet he was only sentenced to 5 years and allowed to serve it out in a Yemeni prison?

Apparently he was also linked to the failed underwear bomber so I'm guessing that was what made him worth killing? This is all very confusing.

But if Obama wins a second term our enemies will become stronger...

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entries/gop-state-chair-romney-doesnt-think-he-can

Rob Gleason, the Pennsylvania Republican State Party chair, says that Mitt Romney isn’t optimistic about winning the state in November, reports The Morning Call.

Gleason recalled telling Mitt Romney at a fundraiser that they would win Pennsylvania, to which Romney replied, “Really?”
 

kehs

Banned
Does that address the millions who have stopped looking for work because there are no jobs? The millions of young people who graduated and now can't find a job, even in good professions?

It seems like the administration wants to make abstract cases for their economic record because they can't talk about the actual consequences of the last 4 years. The average person doesn't know what the GDP is, but they know their husband has been on unemployment benefits for months, and that their neighbor can't find work to. If Romney runs a halfway decent campaign he'll be able to reach those people


So do you copy and paste comments or are you the same poster on the comment section?
 
http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/electoral-map

And I'm beginning to see signs of the media stretching things as far as they can to make this race seem as close as possible.

PA is not a "toss up" state. Obama is polling way, WAY ahead (by 8 percent as of today) and no republican has won the state for 5 or 6 elections now. As someone else pointed out before me, not even Romney considers this state in play.

NC is "lean republican?" Obama has been 5+ points in front of Romney (and any other republican) for months now. At best it's toss up, at worst it's leaning democratic.

There's argument that VA could also be in the "leaning democratic" category, but that's just nitpicking, I think.

Fix these and Romney's path to the nomination becomes less and less plausible.
 
So, with the Europeans swinging hard left with the recent string of elections, what does that imply about the U.S.?

I think had the Tea Party and Paul Ryan types had a president in power that would let them get away with anything, we would be seeing a similarly strong swing left this cycle, but with a Democrat in the oval office, people still have some ability to say "See, they're not doing a good job" given the slow recovery of the economy.

I know the House will be swinging more towards the Democrats this cycle, but the Democrats aren't all that left wing these days. Could we be seeing a stronger move leftwards over future election cycles? Or will be primarily relying on demographic shifts to spur that along?
 
So, with the Europeans swinging hard left with the recent string of elections, what does that imply about the U.S.?

Its not really a leftward swing. Its more of throw the bums out. Its just there were a lot of rightwing parties in europe.

Spain just gave their rightwing a giant mandate back in november.

You also have neo nazis rising and the FN in france. I don't think people really know what they want.
 

GhaleonEB

Member
http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/electoral-map

And I'm beginning to see signs of the media stretching things as far as they can to make this race seem as close as possible.

PA is not a "toss up" state. Obama is polling way, WAY ahead (by 8 percent as of today) and no republican has won the state for 5 or 6 elections now. As someone else pointed out before me, not even Romney considers this state in play.

NC is "lean republican?" Obama has been 5+ points in front of Romney (and any other republican) for months now. At best it's toss up, at worst it's leaning democratic.

There's argument that VA could also be in the "leaning democratic" category, but that's just nitpicking, I think.

Fix these and Romney's path to the nomination becomes less and less plausible.

Wisconsin is not a tossup either, and Colorado is lean blue, if not solid Obama. Definitely a "it's close" narrative in the making here, despite the polling. If they had a uniform standard for how they judged states, there's no way PA and WI would be tossups, and VA, NC and CO would be lean blue.
 
Sup, dudes.

So, I'm looking at these two websites:

http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/electoral-map
http://www.270towin.com/

I want to build a map that will look like the likely outcome for the 2012 elections. Unfortunately, like we all know, the media loves to make it look close when it isn't. Thus, I dunno if I can trust the NYT's "Toss Up" section. Colorado, for example, I think is Lean Democrat.

What do you guys think? I know ya'll had this discussion like 10 pages back, but I'm wondering if anything has changed.

Edit:

Wow, we're having this discussion already! Awesome.
 
Wisconsin is not a tossup either, and Colorado is lean blue, if not solid Obama. Definitely a "it's close" narrative in the making here[, despite the polling. If they had a uniform standard for how they judged states, there's no way PA and WI would be tossups, and VA, NC and CO would be lean blue.

my thoughts exactly. The media is just so worthless. how did this happen?

An honest assessment would show just how lackluster a candidate Romney is and pointing out the uphill climb, not bending the truth as far as possible to show the race as even.
 
Sup, dudes.

So, I'm looking at these two websites:

http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/electoral-map
http://www.270towin.com/

I want to build a map that will look like the likely outcome for the 2012 elections. Unfortunately, like we all know, the media loves to make it look close when it isn't. Thus, I dunno if I can trust the NYT's "Toss Up" section. Colorado, for example, I think is Lean Democrat.

What do you guys think? I know ya'll had this discussion like 10 pages back, but I'm wondering if anything has changed.

Edit:

Wow, we're having this discussion already! Awesome.

I'd take the default map and change to Democrat (at least Lean Dem):

Nevada
Colorado
Pennsylvania

Though if you wanna be brazen, you can move Virginia, North Carolina, and New Hampshire to Lean Democrat. The RCP average shows Obama up by 3 points in all three states.

Edit:

Changed some stuff up. I initially discounted Romney's polling leads in certain states.

Edit 2:

I was just checking RCP for Ohio, and apparently Rasmussen and Fox released polls in April showing a 4 and 6 point lead for Obama in the state, respectively. Can we start moving that to the Lean Democrat column?
 
Sup, dudes.

So, I'm looking at these two websites:

http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/electoral-map
http://www.270towin.com/

I want to build a map that will look like the likely outcome for the 2012 elections. Unfortunately, like we all know, the media loves to make it look close when it isn't. Thus, I dunno if I can trust the NYT's "Toss Up" section. Colorado, for example, I think is Lean Democrat.

What do you guys think? I know ya'll had this discussion like 10 pages back, but I'm wondering if anything has changed.

Edit:

Wow, we're having this discussion already! Awesome.

My Swing States (I am not counting current polls, looking at what it would be come say October and in order of "swingyness"):
North Carolina (probably the purest form of a swing state this election cycle)
Iowa (For some reason I feel this will be the hardest state for Obama to recapture the percentage of white vote he needs to win)
Florida (Same as above, also, Florida Seniors seem more willing susceptible to anti-HCR arguments)
Nevada (extremely high unemployment coupled with big Mormon Population makes this a tougher state for Obama in the region than CO and NM.)
VA (I know, i know, current polls are very good for Obama. A lot depends on whether Obama can make get those voters registered and turned out for November)
Ohio (I see Obama having more issues with white voters in Ohio too)
NH (Err...not sure. They like to do things differently now and then)
 
I'd take the default map and:

Change to Democrat (at least Lean Dem):

Nevada
Colorado
Pennsylvania

Change to toss-up:

Arizona
Missouri

Though if you wanna be brazen, you can move Virginia, North Carolina, and New Hampshire to Lean Democrat. The RCP average shows Obama up by 3 points in all three states.

RCP also factors in Rasmussen into it's average- and considering how wildly off Rasmussen was last time, it's difficult to consider that particular pollster as unbiased.

I was just checking RCP for Ohio, and apparently Rasmussen and Fox released polls in April showing a 4 and 6 point lead for Obama in the state, respectively. Can we start moving that to the Lean Democrat column?

you'll never see Ohio solidly in the Dem column. The media spends way too much time hyping it as a make or break state (along with florida). If that state suddenly went Obama +10, the media would STILL hedge on it and say "things could go either way!" Look at Pennsylvania as an example.

That being said, Obama should take Ohio pretty easily. The GOP's anti-union antics combined with the success of the auto bailout means he takes just about the entire Rust Belt.
 
Wisconsin is not a tossup either, and Colorado is lean blue, if not solid Obama. Definitely a "it's close" narrative in the making here, despite the polling. If they had a uniform standard for how they judged states, there's no way PA and WI would be tossups, and VA, NC and CO would be lean blue.

Just a sign of how whipped the media is not only to manufacture a compelling story, but go above and beyond logic in order to appear "balanced." Saying Obama is ahead does not make you in the tank for Obama - even Rove admits Obama is leading on a pure EV scale right now
 
Just a sign of how whipped the media is not only to manufacture a compelling story, but go above and beyond logic in order to appear "balanced." Saying Obama is ahead does not make you in the tank for Obama - even Rove admits Obama is leading on a pure EV scale right now

I was thinking about this- and I'm kind of split on the "why" of why this is happening.

i figure it's either:

1.) the MSM is reluctant to appear "in the tank" for obama and called out as biased by the right wing noise machine

OR

2.) portraying the race as "neck and neck" for as long as possible is frankly just better for ratings, and presidential races are the news organization's bread and butter. A lopsided contest means less viewers tuning in to see talking heads and poll results.

it's probably some combination of 1 and 2, but the cynic in me is leaning more towards 2.

Delegates could vote for who they want in subsequent votes? What would force such secondary votes?

a secondary vote would happen if mitt fails to gain enough "bound" delegates to win the nomination outright. At this point it's a foregone conclusion. He wins every single state going forward in a walk. The Ron Paul nonsense is just that. Nonsense.
 

GhaleonEB

Member
my thoughts exactly. The media is just so worthless. how did this happen?
They get more viewers/hits when the race is close than when the outcome is expected, so they will do their best to portray a close race until the end. I mean, I figure you know that, but it's the answer to the question.

Remember how Chuck Todd's Surface thingy in the 2008 election never managed to put Obama over 270, ever? They had to make exceptions to their own polling methodology to keep enough states in the tossup column to keep him under the mark. They're going to do it again.
 
Is it agreed that if Romney can't take Ohio, be is megafucked?

Every map I make on 270toWin has Bams taking like 290 or more EVs.

Romney needs to take nearly EVERY swing state in play to win the election. All of them. Indiana (which is definitely happening), North Carolina, Arizona, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, and either Iowa or New Hampshire.

Romney has literally *a* Map that allows him to win the nomination. Lose any of these and he's out. On the other hand, Obama has about 5 or 6 different scenarios that allow him to plausibly lose and win a combination of states and win the election.
 

Hop

That girl in the bunny hat
Romney has literally *a* Map that allows him to win the nomination. Lose any of these and he's out. On the other hand, Obama has about 5 or 6 different scenarios that allow him to plausibly lose and win a combination of states and win the election.

And for that matter, a number of scenarios that allow him to implausibly lose and win and still win the election.
 
They get more viewers/hits when the race is close than when the outcome is expected, so they will do their best to portray a close race until the end. I mean, I figure you know that, but it's the answer to the question.

Remember how Chuck Todd's Surface thingy in the 2008 election never managed to put Obama over 270, ever? They had to make exceptions to their own polling methodology to keep enough states in the tossup column to keep him under the mark. They're going to do it again.

Honestly, they cover politics like some type of infamous criminal trial. Those work on television because there are an infinite number of things the media can trumpet - whether they're facts or not - to stimulate attention while waiting for a jury to make a decision. Basically it's a period where no one can officially be "wrong" so all hell breaks loose, every tiny thing is obsessed over, and a new side story can be created on the fly. I watched maybe three minutes of Casey Anthony talk and was surprised at how much it looked like a political circus
 

Measley

Junior Member
Ohio (I see Obama having more issues with white voters in Ohio too)

Romney's on record supporting Senate Bill 5 and opposing the auto bailouts, the latter of which was a big reason Ohio's economy turned around. We also have a rapidly growing minority population in Columbus and Cleveland.

I would be SHOCKED if he took Ohio in November.
 
Romney's on record supporting Senate Bill 5 and opposing the auto bailouts, the latter of which was a big reason Ohio's economy turned around. We also have a rapidly growing minority population in Columbus and Cleveland.

I would be SHOCKED if he took Ohio in November.

Yeah, there was a bit of talk in this thread about Obama's rally at OSU yesterday not meeting attendance expectations, but looking through the audience there seemed to be a lot more minority presence there than I've seen in one place in Columbus in a long time... and Cleveland already has rather significant black/Asian populations.

He ain't losin' this state this time even if Cincinnati swings back.
 

Diablos

Member
Romney's on record supporting Senate Bill 5 and opposing the auto bailouts, the latter of which was a big reason Ohio's economy turned around. We also have a rapidly growing minority population in Columbus and Cleveland.

I would be SHOCKED if he took Ohio in November.

None of this matters if the economy plummets.

Wall Street will be doing everything they can to fuck with Obama's chances; they know he's already been way to nice of a guy to them.

I still think things are looking fairly good for Barry, but, let's not get overconfident.

Don't forget about the tax break and budget cut battles that will be going down towards the end of the year. It's going to be a complete shitstorm.
 
Romney needs to take nearly EVERY swing state in play to win the election. All of them. Indiana (which is definitely happening), North Carolina, Arizona, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, and either Iowa or New Hampshire.

Romney has literally *a* Map that allows him to win the nomination. Lose any of these and he's out. On the other hand, Obama has about 5 or 6 different scenarios that allow him to plausibly lose and win a combination of states and win the election.

I hope its like this every election moving forward
 
I wonder if the Republicans would consider eliminating the electoral college and going with a popular vote system if they begin to lose consistently. If they can never win Penn, then those 40% of the population that do vote for them don't matter in the results column. I think it would be to their benefit. Just look at 2008:

EsbKS.png


It would also be funny to see Tea Party Congressmen undoing something the Framers actually put into the Constitution itself.
 
Democrats definitely have a stronger baseline for the electoral college. The Gore-Kerry-Obama states haven't really changed and get them well over 200 votes.

I believe some analyst said Romney could win the popular vote by 2%, and there would still a plausible scenario Obama wins the EC. Swing states like NM and CO are sarting to lock firmly into the Democratic category, and formerly red states like Virginia and North Carolina are becoming the new swing states.

To put it in perspective: The four biggest states are CA, NY, TX, FL. CA and NY are solid blue, Texas is safe R for now (could change in 2016/2020), and all of Romney's paths to victory run through Florida, a toss-up state. Obama doesn't even need Florida, but he'll probably win it if he wins the election at all.
 
WTF?!?!? Reagan, Bush, BushW1, and BushW2 RAN UP MOST OF THE DEBT!

Who cares about the debt? It's just a national bank. What they did was spend money, which was good for the economy, even if where they spent the money was on rich people.

The deficit came down during Clinton's term.

And caused a recession...

Obama's deficits have been large but they are at least holding steady to the size of deficit that Bush had when he left office.

Unfortunately. Obama's deficits should be much larger. You only give into conservative ideology by talking about the debt and deficit as if they are bad things. They aren't. The debt is a pure choice. We don't have to issue bonds to spend money. We do it to give the financial industry a risk-free investment. And the deficit is how the government injects more financial assets into the economy, which is necessary for the economy to grow. When a conservative points to the Obama administration deficits, you should say, "I know, if only that fucker had spent more we'd all be better off!" Because it's true. Talking about deficits as though they were a bad thing only reinforces bullshit conservative propaganda.
 

jp_zer0

Banned
I wrote a paper in my philosophy class on how much I hate leftism and he is now butthurt because it was so sound. It's kind of awkward now, what should I do?
 

GaimeGuy

Volunteer Deputy Campaign Director, Obama for America '16
I wrote a paper in my philosophy class on how much I hate leftism and he is now butthurt because it was so sound. It's kind of awkward now, what should I do?

You accidentally the whole paper?


Who the hell is he?

What the hell are you talking about? Who are you talking to?
 

Tim-E

Member
ScDSZ.png


This is what I think the electoral map looks like for now. The 3 new dem states in the west are safe for Obama, I think. Iowa, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida are the only swing states. Florida is one where I don't feel too confident about for Obama, but the others are very much doable. It's still very possible for Romney to win, but he's got a really tough electoral path.
 
Who cares about the debt? It's just a national bank. What they did was spend money, which was good for the economy, even if where they spent the money was on rich people.

And caused a recession...

You miss the point. They lie in their ads, that is my point.

And no, Clinton bringing the deficit down did not cause a recession. That recession was merely a pull-back from dot-com mania where we had over-investment in things that made no sense. Like pets.com Fed Exing dog food to people's houses. You can't build castles in the clouds and expect it to work.



Unfortunately. Obama's deficits should be much larger. You only give into conservative ideology by talking about the debt and deficit as if they are bad things. They aren't. The debt is a pure choice. We don't have to issue bonds to spend money. We do it to give the financial industry a risk-free investment. And the deficit is how the government injects more financial assets into the economy, which is necessary for the economy to grow. When a conservative points to the Obama administration deficits, you should say, "I know, if only that fucker had spent more we'd all be better off!" Because it's true. Talking about deficits as though they were a bad thing only reinforces bullshit conservative propaganda.
No. Money has to be spent on useful things. Just paying people to dig ditches and fill them back in can help a tiny bit but only to the degree that the wages you pay those people get spent on productive things. If everyone just digs ditches & fills them in you get nation of starving ditch-diggers.

I'm just not going to buy into the Magic Money Theory.

And besides . . . in a world of globalization, so much government stimulus leaks and stimulates the economies of Brazil, China, Japan, Canada, and other places where we get supplies, raw materials, components, etc.
 

RDreamer

Member
No. Money has to be spent on useful things. Just paying people to dig ditches and fill them back in can help a tiny bit but only to the degree that the wages you pay those people get spent on productive things. If everyone just digs ditches & fills them in you get nation of starving ditch-diggers.

If you can't think of enough useful things for less than 10% of the population that's unemployed to do, well then you're just not very creative at all. And you're possibly blind.

I'm just not going to buy into the Magic Money Theory.

That's ok. You don't have to buy into it for it to still be true :p
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Am I correct in asking that the reason that Republicans can say that medicare and social security are going "bankrupt" because they have a trust fund, where money is supposed to be collected to eventually be paid out, but other parts of the don't have these things (like the Pentagon, who can simply just ask the government to spend more money on them)?
 
This is jp_zer0's story.

sKtZz.png
My favorite thing about this is that there are totally guys like this at my community college. The guys who come into a philosophy class because it fulfills Goal Area 6, pick a fight with the professor over some conservative bullshit (and get smacked down), then later gripe about their liberal atheist agenda or whatever. And they always aspire to join the army, or have already (the latter is much rarer).

They also share images like that on facebook and tag them with "97% of you aren't brave enough to repost this!" Yup, being openly Christian is now a sign of valor in the United States, where your beliefs are being suppressed EVERY DAY by the political leaders who are overwhelmingly Christian (the exceptions being the small percentage of Catholics and Jews).

Look, I'm not saying you can't take pride in your religious beliefs, but there's a sense of irony that always gets lost here.
 
My favorite thing about this is that there are totally guys like this at my community college. The guys who come into a philosophy class because it fulfills Goal Area 6, pick a fight with the professor over some conservative bullshit (and get smacked down), then later gripe about their liberal atheist agenda or whatever. And they always aspire to join the army, or have already (the latter is much rarer).

They also share images like that on facebook and tag them with "97% of you aren't brave enough to repost this!" Yup, being openly Christian is now a sign of valor in the United States, where your beliefs are being suppressed EVERY DAY by the political leaders who are overwhelmingly Christian (the exceptions being the small percentage of Catholics and Jews).

Look, I'm not saying you can't take pride in your religious beliefs, but there's a sense of irony that always gets lost here.

It's false courage. Like the woman standing up against gun owner discrimination when it doesn't exist.
 
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