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PoliGAF 2014 |OT2| We need to be more like Disney World
- Thread starter Aaron Strife
- Start date
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Bel Marduk
Banned
This picture made my day.
Metaphoreus
This is semantics, and nothing more
I agree. It's not like the Court would have to scrutinize penumbras and emanations to find the bans unconstitutional. All of the arguments asserted against the bans are pretty well established in current Constitutional doctrine.
Black Mamba
Member
I truly believe when the Court's allignment changes, Sotoymayer will be the most important justice on the bench. She'll be the one dictating major Opinions one way or another.
With Democrats like this...
Great posts, Meta. (I just feel like it's rude to misspell it!)
One thing I find fascinating about the Sotomayor discussion is the idea that she forced "the conservatives" to back off. Obviously Thomas didn't move, and I think we can assume Scalia didn't either, even though he ultimately concurred. So we're really talking about losing Kennedy, Alito and Roberts.
I have to read this as another example of Roberts's political nausea. He's constantly concerned about the public image of the Roberts Court -- it turned the ACA case. I wonder whether it's good or bad?
Dat first comment on that article. I always love how it's framed as an "attack against religion"
Eh, you can't blame him too much. I don't think any prominent politicians will come out for full legalization like Colorado has for several more years. Jerry Brown has a supermajority in California and no risk of losing reelection at all and he still opposes it. Hickenlooper is already in a tight reelection, arguably for being more liberal than the state was ready for, so the last thing he needs is to turn off suburban moms by supporting pot legalization.
Aaron Strife
Banned
A court in Virginia struck down their Congressional map and ordered a new one drawn up by 2015.
This might be a good opportunity for Democrats to gain a couple of seats.
This might be a good opportunity for Democrats to gain a couple of seats.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/hi...says-warren-buffett-2014-10-07?dist=afterbell
Well, duuuuh!
Still, I like the FreeRepublic fretting that comes with articles like this.
Well, duuuuh!
Still, I like the FreeRepublic fretting that comes with articles like this.
The Librarian
Banned
9th Circuit decision on gay marriage coming in hot!
NYCmetsfan
Banned
NYCmetsfan
Banned
And going back to my point from yesterday they struck down a black majority district.
Why can I hold all this gay marriage.jpg
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
PPP readjusted their estimates of the size of the black electorate to be more in line with Cohn's reporting we talked about yesterday. Purdue is still up by 2 points.
In other Georgia related news, Purdue defends the outsourcing of jobs that he did as a business man by saying he's proud of it because that's what free market freedom is all about.
In other Georgia related news, Purdue defends the outsourcing of jobs that he did as a business man by saying he's proud of it because that's what free market freedom is all about.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Eh, a 2 point lead ain't nothing. I wouldn't call Ernst a favorite in Iowa based on PPP's last poll, nor would I call Grimes a favorite in KY based on that SUSA poll.
Perdue has a habit of putting his foot in his mouth and Nunn is going to dominate the airwaves this month. But since it'll probably go to a run-off it won't matter much if neither of them can get over 50.
Dem SuperPAC is spending 1 million on an ad in... South Dakota. Just imagine if this paid off.
I was listening to NPR today and even they think the GOP is going to gain seats in the Senate, but only about to 50. So Biden will then be the tie breaker vote.
benjipwns
Banned
Wow, low blow at the end there.
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
Wow at outright promoting Weiland's policy of expanding social security. Not something you expect from a red state ad, but I like it. I've always said dems don't appreciate some of their more popular positions enough. Others have done it in speeches which only the die hards are going to see anyway, but unusual to see on a TV ad in my experience.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
That ad is a future of dems ads. Brilliant.
benjipwns
Banned
Disgusting, this kind of big money controlling our democracy should be illegal.
instead of sweetheart deals for special interests he'll help WAGE WORKERS, TEACHERS AND SCHOOL ADMINISTRATORS, OLD PEOPLE ... FARMERS, RANCHERS ... BUT NOT SPECIAL INTERESTS
Aaron Strife
Banned
Begich has been doubling down on expanding SS. Hope it works
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
It'd be a pretty sweet deal if Nunn and Weiland end up closer to victory than Landrieu and Pryor. Remember both of them won primaries over the establishment pick because the establishment thought Nunn and Weiland were too liberal for red states to have a chance, and thanks to that they haven't gotten a ton of establishment support because they thought it'd be wasted effort.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Well I mean, it'd be even better if they all won.
I'm torn on the sentiment behind Perdue's comments. Very simply if America is losing from free trade it's because we're not concentrating in the areas that should be our specialty. China can make cheap crap more efficiently than we can, but they can't compete with us in service industries that require advanced degrees. Much of the world shouldn't be able to compete with us in this area because we have far too many outstanding Universities, but the high costs of college in America is a self-inflicted wound that causes us to not optimally specialize in what should be our future. That's the bottleneck.
What's worse, the ghost of blue collar past have America convinced that we should be a major world manufacturing power, despite being thoroughly out competed in this area by emerging Asian economies. Perhaps we should manufacture, in certain unique situations where a product's selling point is that of a luxury good made at high quality, but those situations don't run the Rust Belt at full capacity.
I'm sure in Perdue's mind the fact that America is not adapting is not his fault and he was just a rational actor in a country that won't act rationally in its own interests. He had two options, dance around the subject weakly and lend the charge merit, or own it full-throttle. If I was his political adviser, I'd have said he picked the better of the two options.
What's worse, the ghost of blue collar past have America convinced that we should be a major world manufacturing power, despite being thoroughly out competed in this area by emerging Asian economies. Perhaps we should manufacture, in certain unique situations where a product's selling point is that of a luxury good made at high quality, but those situations don't run the Rust Belt at full capacity.
I'm sure in Perdue's mind the fact that America is not adapting is not his fault and he was just a rational actor in a country that won't act rationally in its own interests. He had two options, dance around the subject weakly and lend the charge merit, or own it full-throttle. If I was his political adviser, I'd have said he picked the better of the two options.
Black Mamba
Member
New SUSA Kansas poll has Orman up 47-42. Same 47-42 for Davis over Brownback.
Kansas is solidly Orman at this point.
Kansas is solidly Orman at this point.
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
The GOP just canceled some TV ads for Land there. They've clearly given up on her.
Wonder how long it'll be before Washington Post finally gets the memo.
Oh and 42 percent is the highest number Roberts has gotten thus far.
Aaron Strife
Banned
I'd rather be Schauer than Land.
PPP had Snyder up like 1 today I think? Schauer needs to win undecided voters or turn out more Democrats.
I heard Obama is going to make a stop in Michigan for him and Peters.
PPP had Snyder up like 1 today I think? Schauer needs to win undecided voters or turn out more Democrats.
I heard Obama is going to make a stop in Michigan for him and Peters.
PhoenixDark
Banned
It'll be hard to win independents given Schauer's direct ties with Granholm. I think he's fucked, whereas Peters is on cruise control. I think the problem is that Land and Schauer are very flawed candidates, just in different ways. Land for being a dumbass who can't connect to regular people, Schauer for being tied to one of the least popular governors in modern US history.
WayneMorse
Banned
If the Dems manage to hold the Senate the Republican tears will be absolutely delicious, even better than 2012 in my opinion.
benjipwns
Banned
PPP hasn't released a MI poll that I can find since the start of September.
Detroit News, MRG, EPIC-MRA, Mitchell all have Snyder up 4-8 points in their polls from this last week.
The GOP screwed up by thinking Land's name recognition was actual support, they had plenty of stronger candidates who wanted to take a shot at it but they thought she was a lock for the money when she never had any base support.
Peters is hardly a great candidate but he's gonna walk away with it. There's probably a number of Democrats kicking themselves at not getting into that race either.
2012 had that incredibly entertaining "poll unskewing" craze, which led much of the Republican base to go into Election Day holding a metaphysical certitude that Obama wouldn't get past 269EVs.
But I think 2014 tears would definitely be the most entertaining off-year tears in at least a generation. If they lose despite having such an incredibly favorable map, they won't have a "macaca" or a "legitimate rape" moment to point to. They'll be left scratching their heads, wondering what the hell just happened. It'd be delectable to behold..
I think 2016 might bring the mother of all meltdowns.
.. losing yet another presidential campaign
.. sweating over Scalia and his buddies having to hang-on for another four years
.. Bill having access to White House interns again - and his approval rating defying gravity should anything, err, "interesting" happen
.. having to listen to Hillary - the embodiment of all they hate - for four long years
I'm going to bring back a Clinton-era advertising tagline here: Wednesday, November 9, 2016 is going to be Must-See TV!
Aaron Strife
Banned
I could have sworn I saw PPP release a poll for some advocacy group but I may have been thinking of Florida. Either way I wouldn't say Schauer is in as bad a position as Land.
Manmademan
Member
gaining seats in the senate is a foregone conclusion. the seats up for grabs are almost all in red states which have gotten redder over the past 6 years.
51 seats at this point would take some work though- Kansas is gone and no one counted on that, and the dems are definitely holding NC. The narrative of a GOP wave just didn't happen, and the mass media (yes, even NPR) can get confused and defensive when widely held narratives don't pan out.
Rebel Leader
THE POWER OF BUTTERSCOTCH BOTTOMS
Americans in florida elected rick scott as governer of florida... after his company hadf the biggest medicare fraud in history
benjipwns
Banned
Was just noting that he had his shot a month or so ago and whiffed hard by playing conservative*. He's not really going to get much out of his one "debate" with Snyder. So his graph looks a lot like Land's in terms of falling away increasingly from a tie though little movement for the frontrunner.
*as in going easy on the ads, appearances, etc. expecting that he just had to show up, kinda like John Kerry in 2004. And basically trying to use one issue, that he supported in the past, against Snyder.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Hm. Well we'll see. I admit i haven't paid too much attention to this race lately. Been more focused on the Senate.
I would say a 3 point deficit is much easier to overcome than a 9 point one so I wouldn't equivalate the two that much. They're losing for very different reasons.
And I was right about there being a PPP poll http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2014-michigan-governor-snyder-vs-Schauer It was paid for by League of Conservation Voters.
benjipwns
Banned
Aaron Strife
Banned
Yeah makes me wonder. That's like a ten point difference in the actual results.
PhoenixDark
Banned
I'm glad Peters is going to waltz into the senate. He's the type of liberal I wish the senate had more of in 2009.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Honestly it shouldn't even be much of a surprise. Remember how much of a fuss the media made about Michigan in 2012? The D won by like 20 points. Although that dumb outsourcing ad the R ran probably had a lot to do with that.
WayneMorse
Banned
Peters kinda seems like a generic centrist Democrat to me. I suspect he'll just toe the administration's line.
benjipwns
Banned
Nah, the ad was just the nail in the coffin. Hoekstra has all of his support base in the West of the state which is why he could never command much of the 2010 GOP primary. Stabenow was always going to beat any GOPer by a good amount. She had had the same "tightened race" moment in 2006 that lasted a week or two.
If you added boring to that, it'd be a fairly good description. He can be like a plank of wood in person.
Land had high name recognition because she was Secretary of State and they put their names on everything. So they poll well early, Candice Miller had the same "problem." Oddly, pundits think the AG's are always "strong candidates" but only Granholm turned that into higher office and she was far more unknown.
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