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PoliGAF 2014 |OT2| We need to be more like Disney World

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Amazing how prescient this ended up being.

Previous PoliGAF Threads:

2014

PoliGAF 2014 |OT| Kay Hagan and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad News

2013
PoliGAF 2013 |OT3| 1,000 Years of Darkness and Nuclear Fallout
PoliGAF 2013 |OT2| Worth 77% of OT1
PoliGAF 2013 |OT1| Never mind, Wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

2012
PoliGaf 2012 |OT6| OBAMA
United States Election: Nov 6, 2012 |OT| - Barack Obama Re-elected
PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi
PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.
PoliGAF 2012 |OT3| If it's not a legitimate OT the mods have ways to shut it down
PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread |OT2| This thread title is now under military control
US PoliGAF 2012 | The Romney VeepStakes: Waiting for Chris Christie to Sing…
PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread

2011
PoliGAF 2011: Forum member gridlock causes inaction on thread title naming crisis
PoliGAF 2011: The 112th U.S. Congress is now in session: Want some graphs with that?

2010
Poligaf episode 2010: The Empire Strikes Back
PoliGAF 2010: On our way to November 2
PoliGAF 2010: Home Of "By The Time I Get To Arizona"

2009
PoliGAF Thread of PRESIDENT OBAMA Checkin' Off His List
PoliGAF Thread of PRESIDENT OBAMA's First 100 Out of the Way
 
Crossposting from OT1:

Right now the hope is that the likely voter models is underrepresenting Dems. I'm not going to sit here and "unskew polls," but the last 2 midterms, including the GOP 2010 wave, underrepresenting Dems by an average of 2 points. And Senate polls on average are 5 points off.

Now, I'd also expect (and hope) these polling firms are getting better at their jobs but this isn't like a presidential election. Midterms are harder and while I would never say "R up 1, therefore Dems really leading," hopefully they are still underestimating the Democrat vote.

We'll see.

Mind linking me to these numbers?

e: Also, Aaron, got a citation for that DSCC stat for IA-Sen?
 
Crossposting from OT1:



Mind linking me to these numbers?
Dug up some Senate numbers for you (bolded races with Dem advantages):

Arkansas - 1.4% Dem lean
Arizona - .7% Dem lean
California - 4.8% GOP lean
Colorado - 3.9% GOP lean
Connecticut - 3.1% GOP lean
Delaware - 2.6% GOP lean
Florida - 2.2% Dem/IND lean (this is kind of weird since Rubio had two opponents)
Georgia - 5.6% GOP lean
Illinois - 1.4% GOP lean
Indiana - 4.7% GOP lean
Kentucky - .6% Dem lean
Louisiana - 3.9% Dem lean
Maryland - .8% GOP lean
Missouri - 3.3% Dem lean
Nevada - 8.3% GOP lean (!)
New Hampshire - 7.5% Dem lean (!)
New York (Gillibrand) - 6.4% GOP lean
New York (Schumer) - 3.2% GOP lean
North Carolina - .7% GOP lean
Ohio - 2.2% GOP lean
Oregon - .5% GOP lean
Pennsylvania - 2.5% GOP lean
Utah - 3.5% Dem lean
Washington - 3.5% GOP lean
West Virginia - 5.6% GOP lean
Wisconsin - 2.8% GOP lean

These are all of the Senate races with frequent enough polling to generate RCP averages. There were two states where the polling averages missed the winner, Nevada and Colorado. Average GOP lean comes out to 1.5%.

Edit: I also did 2012 in sixteen states that were at least somewhat competitive and had a high volume of polling (which was noticeably cut back from 2010 as pollsters focused less on safe states). This included AZ, CT, FL, MA, ME, MI, MO, MT, NV, NJ, NM, ND, OH, PA, VA, WI.

Senate polls were off by an average of 4.1 points this year in the GOP's favor. Every state's polling average leaned to the Republicans, except for New Jersey (the polling average matched the final result exactly) and New Mexico (Dem lean of 4.9 points). Polls in Montana and North Dakota missed the winners by significant margins. Ponder on this, if the polls were completely right in both years, Democrats would only have 51 seats in the Senate right now.

If I were to guess one of the contributing factors to this was likely voter models screening out people who didn't vote in 2010, something that might also be a problem with 2014 polling. For example a huge chunk of Iowa Democrats who are voting early this year didn't vote at all in 2010.

Source on those Iowa numbers

The Obama campaign always made the case that it was doing a great job of banking marginal voters, and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee made the same case to The New York Times’s Ashley Parker, who reported on the first day of absentee voting that 92 percent of requested Republican ballots went to voters who participated in 2010, compared with just 64 percent of Democrats. That would mean that 20,832 registered Democrats who didn’t vote in 2010 have already requested ballots, compared with 2,487 registered Republicans. These numbers should not be dismissed because they were provided by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee; the state’s voter file should allow these figures to be calculated with precision.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Very interesting numbers on that polling bias. I don't know how much stock to put into it, since it seems like the type of thing that can turn on a dime, like how it seemed to go from democrat biased to republican biased from 2002/2004 to 2006/2008, but it's nice to keep in mind in any case.
 

teiresias

Member
So when's the last day the SCOTUS can announce they're taking up gay marriage this term? Considering they're the ones that have stayed many rulings that would otherwise be allowing gay marriage to start in many places it would be super shitty if they didn't.
 

Diablos

Member
Mid term elections are going to be dire.
Yup.

I just hope Dems can squeak by. Even if it's by one seat. Hold the Senate. Really sad that Turtleface seems to have secured his re-election though. I had high hopes for Grimes.

Corbett's going down, at least. Can't wait to vote against him.
 

Diablos

Member
I think the title is appropriate.

Also, mega LULZ to anyone thinking the Secret Service should be more like Disney World. Pure lunacy.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Mid term elections are going to be dire.

Unless it somehow turns into a blood bath, it's probably not so bad. We're looking at gridlock til 2016 and a democrat senate after 2016 either way. A republican senate could just embolden republicans to drastically overreach in things like government shutdowns or impeachment proceedings.
 

Diablos

Member
GOP is gonna blow their load if they win the Senate, no doubt. They're going to act like they won the White House. It'll be sad, infuriating and humorous all at once.
 
Senate is gone, Obama is closing in on Bush status. This Ebola thing might be the last nail. The incompetence is stunning.

I really think this second term has ended his chance at being remembered fondly, unless great things happen in the next two years (nope),
 

Metaphoreus

This is semantics, and nothing more
Senate is gone, Obama is closing in on Busg status. This Ebola thing might be the last nail. The incompetence is stunning.

I really think this second term has ended his chance at being remembered fondly, unless great things happen in the next two years (nope),

Damn, I'm good.
 
Senate is gone, Obama is closing in on Busg status. This Ebola thing might be the last nail. The incompetence is stunning.

I really think this second term has ended his chance at being remembered fondly, unless great things happen in the next two years (nope),
Can we request a fanfic of how Julia Pierson got to the top of the secret service agency through...secret liasons with president obama?
 
I think Dems will be fine. Tied Senate, maybe. House polls are more or less tied, gov races will break heavily Dem.

Polls have been wrong about 2 Senate seats in each year lately. Iowa and Colorado, there you go. I feel better about CO than IA but the turnout stats in Iowa are fantastic news. LV models won't matter in CO - they have mail-in voting, everyone will get a ballot.
 

HylianTom

Banned
Unless it somehow turns into a blood bath, it's probably not so bad. We're looking at gridlock til 2016 and a democrat senate after 2016 either way. A republican senate could just embolden republicans to drastically overreach in things like government shutdowns or impeachment proceedings.

Yep! It happens every time.

Republicans elected.
Republicans Republican.
Voters are turned-off.
Republicans kicked-out.

The only thing I'm semi-sweating over the next two years is Ginsburg's health, and even then, Obama's going to be the one doing the nominating.
 
So when's the last day the SCOTUS can announce they're taking up fatty marriage this term? Considering they're the ones that have stayed many rulings that would otherwise be allowing gay marriage to start in many places it would be super shitty if they didn't.
Next year. They hear cases till aprilish
 

Diablos

Member
Senate is gone, Obama is closing in on Bush status. This Ebola thing might be the last nail. The incompetence is stunning.

I really think this second term has ended his chance at being remembered fondly, unless great things happen in the next two years (nope),
Are you kidding me?
 

HylianTom

Banned
Next year. They hear cases till aprilish
They did a similar thing last time around with the California & DOMA cases.. a round of stories emerged one week about how no action was taken, and then there were announcements on the following week that they were taking two cases.
 

Amir0x

Banned
Unless it somehow turns into a blood bath, it's probably not so bad. We're looking at gridlock til 2016 and a democrat senate after 2016 either way. A republican senate could just embolden republicans to drastically overreach in things like government shutdowns or impeachment proceedings.

My prediction is that it's probably going to be a fair bit worse than people expect for Democrats. I really think the Democratic vote sitting home is going to be the deciding factor for most close races.

I don't mean to Diablos on you guys, but I do have a baaad feeling about these mid-terms :(
 

Diablos

Member
It's a shame Toomey isn't up this year -- a Democrat on the ticket for Senate right below Wolf would have been nice to help negate losses elsewhere.
 

Diablos

Member
Pennsylvania has me wondering if the GOP will finally give-up on insisting that it's a swing state every four years.
Yeah, well, Toomey never would have made it outside of the 2010 tea party wave. Sestak was only 2 points behind in the end which is pretty telling given the momentum of the right-wing that year; I expected him to be a lot further behind. Any other year and he would have stomped Toomey.

I try not to get too mad about it; for example, Dems never were supposed to be able to re-elect McCaskill in MO and have a Democrat win Lugar's old seat. I'd say Democrats greatly outperformed and exceeded my expectations, expanding their majority greatly in 2008 and subsequently negating mistakes/losses in 2012 by winning/retaining three seats they never should have won, ever. So I get irate when people say Dems are having a "hard time" keeping their majority and that the GOP speaks better to voters. That's bullshit; we would already have a GOP majority in the Senate if the Tea Party didn't straight up troll the electorate in races that were supposed to be safe for them. They sold a message that didn't resonate with voters and they chose Democrats instead, even if reluctantly in those races (either that or they sat it out)

It's just that this year's map sucks for Dems, outside factors not even taken into account. All the seats they are defending are in generally reliably red states if not places where midterms are generally unkind to Democrats to begin with.

I think Allyson Schwartz or Kathleen McGinty (probably McGinty because the Clintons love her for some strange reason) will run against Toomey in 2016, and either one will win with relative ease with Hillary at the top of the ticket. Sestak is running again too, but I don't think he'll win the primary.
 
My prediction is that it's probably going to be a fair bit worse than people expect for Democrats. I really think the Democratic vote sitting home is going to be the deciding factor for most close races.

I don't mean to Diablos on you guys, but I do have a baaad feeling about these mid-terms :(
I think the national party has gotten better at mobilizing voters since the 2010 spectacular. They're essentially running Obama's play book this time, whereas in 2010 OFA sort of disengaged.

Case in point would be Georgia. Obama (rather his strategists I suppose) has wanted to take advantage of its Dem-friendly trajectory since the 08 election and he apparently promised early on it would be a top priority for national Dem groups, who have registered hundreds of thousands of voters this year. I've always thought Georgia would be a better pickup opportunity for Democrats over Kentucky, and I think Nunn will surprise some people. Perdue is slipping up bad (the ad linking her to IS has been universally shit on) and Nunn is dominating the airwaves in October. If it wasn't for the run-off I might have even considered her the favorite early on.

Also like I mentioned - Iowa. If voter engagement is at a level like 2012 (as the early vote suggests) the Democrats' internals might be closer to the mark here. And like in GA, Braley and other Dem groups are advertising heavily in Oct.
 

Lord Fagan

Junior Member
Unless it somehow turns into a blood bath, it's probably not so bad. We're looking at gridlock til 2016 and a democrat senate after 2016 either way. A republican senate could just embolden republicans to drastically overreach in things like government shutdowns or impeachment proceedings.

An upset for Mitch would also provide some degree of unpredictability in a leadership shakeup, but this is a remote possibility. Otherwise, I agree completely with your logic. We're not looking at the kind of Tea Party wave seen in 2010, by any stretch. Gonna be a pretty classic lame duck period with a generous dollop of Hillary until the general.
 

Lord Fagan

Junior Member
Now, that I think about it, I've been wondering about something for a few weeks and would be interested in all of your thoughts...

When do you think the Hillary is gonna stop playing coy and just admit that she's gonna run? Obviously after the midterm election, but I'm of a mind that she'd be smart to wait until after the holidays, as well. Maybe even after the new Congress starts in January. You cats think this would be to her benefit, or not?
 

benjipwns

Banned
BREAKING:
http://www.wnd.com/2014/10/klayman-files-for-deportation-of-barack-obama/
Now Larry Klayman, the former Justice Department lawyer and founder of Judicial Watch and Freedom Watch, is suing to get President Obama deported.

Shipped out. Sent back. Removed.

“In sum, deportation proceedings should be immediately commenced, an investigation undertaken, a full evidentiary hearing held, and Barack Hussein Obama should be removed from the United States,” Klayman writes in his deportation petition.

The petition was sent to Thomas Homan of Enforcement Removal Operations at the Department of Homeland Security, Thomas Winkowksi of Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Sarah Kendall of the Office of Fraud Detection and National Security at DHS.

Klayman explained it is based “on the grounds that he has falsified various birth and other documents with regard to obtaining a U.S. passport and other privileges as an alleged American citizen.”

“It is clear, based on a mountain of evidence as set forth in and attached to the petition, that the president and his agents have falsified documents, such as his birth certificate and Social Security number, to qualify for the privileges of American citizenship such that his citizenship, which is based on false pretenses, must be nullified,” Klayman said.

“As set forth in the petition, this includes but is not limited to the fraudulent production of a computer-generated facsimile of an official state of Hawaiian birth certificate. Even if a legitimate birth certificate exists, Obama’s repeated use of a clearly forged birth certificate is still a crime and in violation of the law,” he said.

“While this deportation proceeding may seem to some to be the work of conservatives who are out to get the president, this is not the case. Barack Obama’s propensity to not tell the truth is now well known, even among his leftist supporters. And, his actions while president [reflects] someone whose actions show that he feels more kinship with his foreign roots and Muslim religious schooling and heritage, than the Judeo-Christian principles upon which this nation was founded.

“I thus urge everyone to read and digest this petition to have him deported and remove him from the United States, before dismissing it,” Klayman said.

The 20-page document points out that his name technically is “Barry Soetoro,” since it was “changed officially in Indonesia and never changed back to his name at birth.”

“The immigration laws of the United States of American are intended in part to ensure that those who become part of the country and particularly those who lead it bear allegiance and loyalty to the United States of American rather than to a foreign country or to interests of other countries generally. It is part of the constitutional design and intention for immigration laws and regulations to regulate those joining the citizenry of the country with the goal of loyalty and allegiance to the country, among other factors,” the petition explains.

“The U.S. Constitution requires that to be eligible to be president (or vice president) a person must be a “natural born citizen” and that all federal elected officials must be citizens,” he wrote.

Then followed a technical description of the problem for Obama;
Klayman explains Obama “inconsistently used different names within the United States,” and sought a U.S. passport with a “clearly forged birth certificate.”

A list of requests includes testimony, records and evidence on the issues of documentation, immigration law, citizenship requirements, birth certificates and more.

Klayman cited the “exacting, professional and exhaustive investigation” that already has been done on the issue, by a “team of experts” assembled by Sheriff Joe Arpaio in Maricopa County, Arizona, at the request of his constituents.

The investigation has concluded that the birth certificate presented by Obama is a forgery.

The petition notes that even if there exists a Hawaii “birth certificate,” the state had only become a part of the U.S. shortly before, and was working out “procedures to operate as a new state.”

“People assume that the existence of a birth certificate from Hawaii proves a birth in Hawaii, when Hawaii law at the time is explicit that a parent could lawfully request a birth certificate from Hawaii for a child born in a foreign country.”

Klayman’s request alleges document fraud, falsely claiming citizenship and willful misrepresentation.
 

benjipwns

Banned
http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/return-gop-hawks_808506.html?page=2#
In a recent, hour-long interview, Lindsey Graham said if he is reelected to the Senate in November, he will begin exploring a bid for the presidency.

Graham has long been one of the most active and outspoken hawks in Congress. He has been a voluble critic of the Obama administration on a wide variety of national security issues—Guantánamo Bay, Benghazi, Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Russia, Iran, and others. Unlike many of his colleagues, Graham often first seeks to engage the administration privately as it debates policy with the hope that he can help shape the outcome rather than just criticize it after the fact.

But Graham no longer trusts Obama enough to engage him on these matters.

In our interview, Graham repeatedly spoke of the challenges that will face the next president because of the mistakes made under Obama. And he suggested that he might just be the one to fix them.

“If I get through my general election, if nobody steps up in the presidential mix, if nobody’s out there talking​—​me and McCain have been talking​—​I may just jump in to get to make these arguments,” Graham said.

I asked Graham about Rubio. Hasn’t he been making many of the arguments you’d be likely to make? Graham wasn’t impressed. “He’s a good guy, but after doing immigration with him—we don’t need another young guy not quite ready,” said Graham. “He’s no Obama by any means, but he’s so afraid of the right, and I’ve let that go.”

McCain likes what he sees in the emerging GOP field, but acknowledges that he’s told Graham to think about running. “
 
Senate is gone, Obama is closing in on Bush status. This Ebola thing might be the last nail. The incompetence is stunning.

I really think this second term has ended his chance at being remembered fondly, unless great things happen in the next two years (nope),

Damn dude you really gotta step up your trolling game.
 

HylianTom

Banned
Oh well I do declare, I hope he runs. I'm getting the vapors just thinking about it. Someone bring me an ice tea before I faint.

If your mission was to bring-forth images of Blanche DuBois in my mind.. good job!

tumblr_n0hfb2RnZr1rdutw3o1_400.gif


Meanwhile, the FreeRepublic threads on this "news" are entertaining as all hell. The posters over there seem to coalescing around Ted Cruz - and if the nominee isn't Cruz, they're staying home on Election Day '16.
 
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