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PoliGAF 2015-2016 |OT3| If someone named PhoenixDark leaves your party, call the cops

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F

Fenderputty

Banned
NYCmetsfan said:
Found benji's favorite subreddit

https://www.reddit.com/r/NAP/





You really think they're going to moderate?

My point is the acceptability of violence and open racism is now a thing. The Rubicon has been crossed. These people always wanted it but they never got it because politicians never were so blatent. Now they are and its what they will demand.

This existential angest about a changing america isn't dying.

I just don't think you guys understood it was to have a lead on the openness of much of this feeling.
Click to expand...

I hope they become more moderate in their hunt for the presidency. Or they can continue to give into those demands and fail.

Don't get me wrong, the extent to what their base will agree with is depressing.
 
O

Orbis Tabula

Member
You guys laugh, but I really think Undecided has a chance to win this whole thing. We'll have to see a head to head match up against Hillary first.
 
C

Chichikov

Member
NYCmetsfan said:
Found benji's favorite subreddit

https://www.reddit.com/r/NAP/
Click to expand...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZxnBSb4OKeU
jKm4WA5.png


Anarchism : Market Anarchism ::
Dead Kennedys : This shit

Worst anarchism is worst.
 
F

Fenderputty

Banned
EskimoJoe said:
You guys laugh, but I really think Undecided has a chance to win this whole thing. We'll have to see a head to head match up against Hillary first.
Click to expand...

I know the candidate pool is like the menu from the Cheesecake Factory, but I have no clue how anyone is undecided at this point.
 
T

titiklabingapat

Member
NYCmetsfan said:
Found benji's favorite subreddit

https://www.reddit.com/r/NAP/





You really think they're going to moderate?

My point is the acceptability of violence and open racism is now a thing. The Rubicon has been crossed. These people always wanted it but they never got it because politicians never were so blatent. Now they are and its what they will demand.

This existential angest about a changing america isn't dying.

I just don't think you guys understood it was to have a lead on the openness of much of this feeling.
Click to expand...
I think I'm not as worried about it because minorities and vulnerable groups have now recognized that they have to fight back, are better organized and, in some cases, actually can get meaningful changes. It's largely the result of demographic changes but it's having a really big impact in the cultural wars.
 
O

OmniOne

Member
I keep reading that the establishment think that once the lower polling candidates like kasich and Christie drop out, that either Jeb! or Rubio will consolidate support and pull out wins.

How are they coming to this conclusion? It defies math. If you add up the support for Trump, Cruz and Carson it is well over a majority of voters often clearing in the 60s.

This looks over, especially when Carson drops out.
 
D

dramatis

Member
How Obama Thinks About Terrorism [The Atlantic]
The leading GOP presidential candidates reject that. They believe defeating the Islamic State requires some dramatic, if vaguely defined, new military and ideological exertion. Obama, by contrast, thinks America simply needs to not screw up. That means not being “drawn once more” into an effort to “occupy foreign lands,” thus allowing the Islamic State to use “our presence to draw new recruits.”

Obama is a kind of Fukuyamian. Like Francis Fukuyama, the author of the famed 1989 essay “The End of History,” he believes that powerful, structural forces will lead liberal democracies to triumph over their foes—so long as these democracies don’t do stupid things like persecuting Muslims at home or invading Muslim lands abroad. His Republican opponents, by contrast, believe that powerful and sinister enemies are overwhelming America, either overseas (the Rubio version) or domestically (the Trump version).
Click to expand...
A general analysis of what Obama might be thinking with regards to ISIS.

We probably need a few more years to see how this will play out in effect though. However, by that time we'd have a different president.
 
V

Veritigo_X

Member
More polls!

CBS/NYT National Poll (12/4-12/8)

Trump 35 (+13)
Cruz 16 (+12)
Carson 13 (-13)
Rubio 9 (+1)
Paul 4 (+0)
Bush 3 (-4)

Clinton 52 (+0)
Sanders 32 (-1)

Fox News South Carolina Poll (12/5-12/8)

Donald Trump 35 (without Carson 39)
Ben Carson 15 (without Trump 23)
Ted Cruz 14 (without Trump 24, without Carson 16)
Marco Rubio 14 (without Trump 17, without Carson 16)
Jeb Bush 5 (without Trump 10, without Carson 7)
Chris Christie 2 (without Trump 3, without Carson 2)

Clinton 65
Sanders 21
 
B

Bowdz

Member
Veritigo_X said:
More polls!

CBS/NYT National Poll (12/4-12/8)

Trump 35 (+13)
Cruz 16 (+12)
Carson 13 (-13)
Rubio 9 (+1)
Paul 4 (+0)
Bush 3 (-4)

Clinton 52 (+0)
Sanders 32 (-1)

Fox News South Carolina Poll (12/5-12/8)

Donald Trump 35 (without Carson 39)
Ben Carson 15 (without Trump 23)
Ted Cruz 14 (without Trump 24, without Carson 16)
Marco Rubio 14 (without Trump 17, without Carson 16)
Jeb Bush 5 (without Trump 10, without Carson 7)
Chris Christie 2 (without Trump 3, without Carson 2)

Clinton 65
Sanders 21
Click to expand...

Rubiomentum! My boy is killing it, top of the polls like a true front runner. I'm so glad his groundbreaking ground game is paying dividends.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Trump's going to collapse like a soufflé.. any.. moment.. now..

(And I want to watch a SpongeBob marathon now.)

===

Laying Odds on the GOP Presidential Race (RCP)

Jeb 5%
Christie 10%
Cruz 15%
Rubio 16%
Trump 20%

Everyone else is below 5%, save for one other possible outcome, outlined in my favorite passage:
No One (25 percent):
My most likely scenario is still that no one wins a sufficient number of delegates to claim the nomination. As Nate Silver lays it out, this comes in three different “flavors”:
(1) No one wins, but someone is close enough that the writing is on the wall;
(2) no one wins, but things get sorted out at the convention;
(3) no one wins, and it is fought out on the convention floor.

I agree with Silver that these are presented in decreasing order of likelihood, and actually put the overall percentages lower than he did (and lower than I did last winter).
Click to expand...

A brokered convention in our lifetime? I'm still skeptical.. but damn, that'd be fun.
 
F

Frank the Great

Banned
Veritigo_X said:
More polls!

CBS/NYT National Poll (12/4-12/8)

Trump 35 (+13)
Cruz 16 (+12)
Carson 13 (-13)
Rubio 9 (+1)
Paul 4 (+0)
Bush 3 (-4)

Clinton 52 (+0)
Sanders 32 (-1)

Fox News South Carolina Poll (12/5-12/8)

Donald Trump 35 (without Carson 39)
Ben Carson 15 (without Trump 23)
Ted Cruz 14 (without Trump 24, without Carson 16)
Marco Rubio 14 (without Trump 17, without Carson 16)
Jeb Bush 5 (without Trump 10, without Carson 7)
Chris Christie 2 (without Trump 3, without Carson 2)

Clinton 65
Sanders 21
Click to expand...

The Christie surge is real.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
HylianTom said:
Trump's going to collapse like a soufflé.. any.. moment.. now..

(And I want to watch a SpongeBob marathon now.)

===

Laying Odds on the GOP Presidential Race (RCP)

Jeb 5%
Christie 10%
Cruz 15%
Rubio 16%
Trump 20%

Everyone else is below 5%, save for one other possible outcome, outlined in my favorite passage:


A brokered convention in our lifetime? I'm still skeptical.. but damn, that'd be fun.
Click to expand...

to the bolded: completely insane. Christie doesn't have anywhere near 10% chance to win the nomination. his polling is negligible everywhere sans new hampshire, where he's somewhere around 5th or 6th place.

And brokered convention being more likely than any single nominee is idiocy, come on now.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Manmademan said:
to the bolded: completely insane. Christie doesn't have anywhere near 10% chance to win the nomination. his polling is negligible everywhere sans new hampshire, where he's somewhere around 5th or 6th place.

And brokered convention being more likely than any single nominee is idiocy, come on now.
Click to expand...
Agree with you on Christie. And I think a brokered outcome is quite overvalued while Trump at this point is waaaay undervalued.

If this were any other candidate with Trump's numbers, his probabilities would be sky-high. The media and the party would already be shifting to General Election Mode.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
HylianTom said:
Agree with you on Christie. And I think a brokered outcome is quite overvalued while Trump at this point is waaaay undervalued.

If this were any other candidate with Trump's numbers, his probabilities would be sky-high. The media and the party would already be shifting to General Election Mode.
Click to expand...

agree. it's overvalued mostly by the same people that insist a trump collapse is "inevitable" but can't explain how that would actually happen.

The back half of the schedule after super tuesday is loaded with winner take all states, and "momentum" tends to guarantee that whoever is leading as of super tuesday will have the majority of these. A brokered convention isn't happening.

If we were talking about someone like huckabee or carson in the frontrunner spot it would be a different story- the support of those two is highly regional, due to evangelicals being highly concentrated in the bible belt but nonexistent elsewhere. Trump unfortunately is dominating in all areas of the country and among all demographics equally. he's doing as well in Iowa as he is in California as he is in New Hampshire as he is in South Carolina. young voters support him as much as retirees.

This is unheard of, and it will take a miracle for his support to drop across the board enough for another candidate to take it to a brokered convention. he takes 51% of delegates easily in most plausible scenarios.
 
J

Joe Shlabotnik

Banned
OmniOne said:
I keep reading that the establishment think that once the lower polling candidates like kasich and Christie drop out, that either Jeb! or Rubio will consolidate support and pull out wins.

How are they coming to this conclusion? It defies math. If you add up the support for Trump, Cruz and Carson it is well over a majority of voters often clearing in the 60s.

This looks over, especially when Carson drops out.
Click to expand...

At this point they're probably hoping the voter screens are a mess. Which is possible. But maybe a fool's hope, too.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
Joe Shlabotnik said:
At this point they're probably hoping the voter screens are a mess. Which is possible. But maybe a fool's hope, too.
Click to expand...

it really isn't. Every pollster's models are saying the exact same thing, no matter what screens they use, or if they're using no screens at all (all adults or registered voters vs. likely voters).

No matter which method you use or pollster you prefer, they're all saying "Trump is the frontrunner, and his support is growing."

the only way to come to a different conclusion is to assume that everyone who has ever been sampled by pollsters is intentionally lying about their preferences.
 
G

gutter_trash

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
Did somebody say POLLS

From St Leo's:

Florida



National



As a side note, St. Leo's reports to the decimal number. I do not. Everything is rounded up or down (.0-.4 goes down, .5-.9 goes up).

Trump beating the GOP nominee in the three-way contests will never cease being hilarious.

I must admit I've missed these gaudy Clinton leads. Seems like things have been working in her favor lately after a rocky couple of months there.
Click to expand...
oh please oh please go 3rd party Donald!
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Veritigo_X said:
More polls!

CBS/NYT National Poll (12/4-12/8)
Bush 3 (-4)
Fox News South Carolina Poll (12/5-12/8)
Jeb Bush 5 (without Trump 10, without Carson 7)
Click to expand...
This needs more discussion. I'm waiting for NH results but this is really bad news for Jeb. His Right to Rise PAC has spent $30m in ads in the early primary places, especially NH which is more than any other PAC. They are furiously trying to take down his competition so it becomes a clear choice between Trump and Jeb....and he loses 4 points nationally and is polling just outside margin of error at 3%? Its not working. He's done.
 
G

gutter_trash

Banned
RustyNails said:
This needs more discussion. I'm waiting for NH results but this is really bad news for Jeb. His Right to Rise PAC has spent $30m in ads in the early primary places, especially NH which is more than any other PAC. They are furiously trying to take down his competition so it becomes a clear choice between Trump and Jeb....and he loses 4 points nationally and is polling just outside margin of error at 3%? Its not working. He's done.
Click to expand...

Jeb! isn' going to quit, he actually believes that the establishment will rally to him at the very end. He's in it for the long haul.
And hopefully lose
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
BertramCooper said:
Jeb's ego won't let him quit.

Dude is entitled as fuck.
Click to expand...

You could argue its not only Jeb that is spoiling the field. He is only at 3% nationally. Jeb is at 3% in IA. Jeb, Kasich, & Christie can be blamed for splintering the vote in NH allowing Trump to win there. Rubio path runs through Trump and Cruz. Bush, Christie, & Kasich must immediately end their campaigns after NH for Rubio to benefit. Fiorina & Paul as well. Carson after IA.

Why it probably won't end that way? ego

Bush is probably in through FL
Carson through Super Tuesday
Christie if he gets in 3rd in NH will stick around. Replace Christie with Kasich scenario

53 days until Iowa and five possibilities

Indeed, it increasingly looks like there are five possibilities about how the Republican race shakes out:

Possibility #1: Trump wins one or both of Iowa and New Hampshire, and runs through all of the establishment GOP efforts to stop him on his way to the Republican nomination.
Possibility #2: Cruz wins Iowa, is set for South Carolina, and racks up wins through the March 1 states - and he emerges as the odds-on favorite to be the GOP nominee.
Possibility #3: Despite whoever wins Iowa or New Hampshire, the establishment/acceptable Republican who comes closest in those two states -- Marco Rubio? -- is set up to coalesce the Republicans who are against Trump or Cruz in a winnowed race.
Possibility #4: Rubio wins Iowa and is positioned to put away the GOP race early.
Possibility #5: Cruz wins Iowa, Trump wins New Hampshire, and Rubio (or someone else) stays alive for a three-way grudge match until GOP convention in Cleveland
Click to expand...
 
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