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PoliGAF 2016 |OT12| The last days of the Republic

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N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
Why is bad nate weighting polls that are older and by worst rated pollsters higher than others

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/florida/#plus

Siena College from almost a month ago poll is higher than the more recent q poll and monmouth which has a better rating that Siena.
And the q poll is better and more recent than the highest rated polls.

Is he just randomly hitting keys on his keyboard or is there trend line stuff I'm missing
 
Z

Zukkoyaki

Member
Teggy said:
Movement on that OH poll doesnt make it look as good
Click to expand...

Comparing movement in polls taken about 7-8 weeks apart is pointless

NYCmetsfan said:
Why is bad nate weighting polls that are older and by worst rated pollsters higher than others

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/florida/#plus

Siena College from almost a month ago poll is higher than the more recent q poll and monmouth which has a better rating that Siena.
And the q poll is better and more recent than the highest rated polls.

Is he just randomly hitting keys on his keyboard or is there trend line stuff I'm missing
Click to expand...

Sample size is the only reason that makes sense at all. Also TRENDZ and HORSERACE!!!
 
I

ISWThunder

Member
Nordicus said:
It just hit me that in this case, Trump's crazy fanbase who think he can do no wrong, may only make him angrier on social media because they can not stop praising Pence for his debate performance...

This is amazing.
Click to expand...

Is there any doubt that Trump is being catfished via DM on Twitter? Probably thinks he has Carville working for him in secret, but it's really a 12-year old from the burbs with a stuffed Pepe the frog collection.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
NYCmetsfan said:
Why is bad nate weighting polls that are older and by worst rated pollsters higher than others

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/florida/#plus

Siena College from almost a month ago poll is higher than the more recent q poll and monmouth which has a better rating that Siena.
And the q poll is better and more recent than the highest rated polls.

Is he just randomly hitting keys on his keyboard or is there trend line stuff I'm missing
Click to expand...

Nate's weighting formula cares far more about number of voters than about the poll being good or recent.

Get the Drudge poll there, Nate.
 
D

darkstar0155

Member
Grief.exe said:
Ohio is nearly in the bottom ten states in the country for people with bachelor's degrees, and also has a disproportionately higher percentage of white population than the rest of the country.
Click to expand...

From my experience, people with a BS in Ohio move away, a lot to Colorado. Could even explain whey as Ohio goes more red, CO moves more blue

ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Sherrod Brown is going to get slaughtered in 2018.
Click to expand...

Brown is very well liked even by conservatives. My one employee thinks Reagan is one of the best presidents ever, hates Obama, and hates Hillary, but says she likes Brown.

Also, I think the key for Clinton in ohio will be the GOTV.

Side bar: Has anyone in Ohio that's requested a provisional ballot got them yet? I was told by the BoE that it would be early October.
 
B

blackw0lf

Member
Pence won debate in the short run, but probably lost in the long run.

Much of the narrative today is about how Pence won by essentially lying and running away from Trump. And every time they play one of Kaine's interruptions they also play him either attacking Trump or defending Clinton.

With only 36 million people watching, most people are going to hear about Pence running away from Trump and Kaine's attacks.

Kaine didn't do well, but strangely enough it might end up benefiting Hillary more in the long run.
 
C

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
Zukkoyaki said:
Comparing movement in polls taken about 7-8 weeks apart is pointless

Sample size is the only reason that makes sense at all. Also TRENDZ and HORSERACE!!!
Click to expand...

The mathematical link between sample size to MoE to probability is what determines the weights in that case. It's...sort of basic statistics and probability.

Right; I forgot - the volume of complaints about weighting is directly proportional to the result of the poll and how favorable it is to Clinton. :p
 
H

Holmes

Member
TheFatOne said:
Good luck with that. The only person right now who can not be attached to Trump is Kasich. Everyone else is completely fucked. Nothing would make me happier than seeing the GOP push Pence for 2020.
Click to expand...
Pence vs. Clinton 2020 would be great because she is able to smack him down on his bullshit, and considering his performance last night, he's full of bullshit and lies.
 
rokkerkory

rokkerkory

Member
blackw0lf said:
Pence won debate in the short run, but probably lost in the long run.

Much of the narrative today is about how Pence won by essentially lying and running away from Trump. And every time they play one of Kaine's interruptions they also play him either attacking Trump or defending Clinton.

With only 36 million people watching, most people are going to hear about Pence running away from Trump and Kaine's attacks.

Kaine didn't do well, but strangely enough it might end up benefiting Hillary more in the long run.
Click to expand...

I might agree with this overall. Kaine wasn't sent to win, he was sent to attack and force the discussion of why Pence has to defend or distance himself on Trump on some key issues.

I've never seen Kaine in that way before. Kinda refreshing.

While Pence's overall demeanor may win him the day, longer term it's a different story.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Cybit said:
The mathematical link between sample size to MoE to probability is what determines the weights in that case. It's...sort of basic statistics and probability.

Right; I forgot - the volume of complaints about weighting is directly proportional to the result of the poll and how favorable it is to Clinton. :p
Click to expand...

The Drudge poll has 0 MoE, needs infinite weight.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Cybit said:
As they ranted about in a podcast - it's not actually a poll. :p
Click to expand...

My point is that you can do really bad sampling techniques on a poll that make the poll bad and not worthwhile despite its high sample size.

Like, there's a Michigan, landline-only poll that called five black people total that came out a week ago... It was not a very good poll.
 
H

Holmes

Member
I think pushing the GOP as the party of Trump can work until 2020, but that'll be it. Until 2012 was about how long Democrats were able to paint the Republicans as the party of Bush, so I think the same time frame for Trump is realistic.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Holmes said:
I think pushing the GOP as the party of Trump can work until 2020, but that'll be it. Until 2012 was about how long Democrats were able to paint the Republicans as the party of Bush, so I think the same time frame for Trump is realistic.
Click to expand...

Then the Dems will push the GOP as the party of Curt Schilling or Steve King or Duncan Hunter or whichever NeoNazi the Trumpkins support in 2020.
 
H

HTupolev

Member
blackw0lf said:
Kaine didn't do well, but strangely enough it might end up benefiting Hillary more in the long run.
Click to expand...
Definitely. It was a whacky debate where one person was trying to make himself look calm and collected and the other was going berserk on a sound bite harvesting mission for the presidential race. Kaine looked sloppy in the live debate, and didn't display great skill in rudely interrupting people politely, but he got what he wanted: lots of easy contradiction clips, and a display of a VP not defending their candidate at all. The full debate was meh, but cuts will favor the democrats.
 
E

Emarv

Member
CuBiwumVIAAgQko.jpg
Click to expand...

https://t.co/lebb63yTAP
 
F

Fragamemnon

Member
Pence is clearly not presidential material, which IMO undermines the whole 'pence is running for 2020' argument. The better argument is that Trump's statements and behavior are basically indefensible, but he broke with the rest of the Trump campaign (which do try to deflect and spin his remarks, looking comically awful in the process) by simply not defending them.
 
N

Nazgul_Hunter

Member
HTupolev said:
Kaine looked sloppy in the live debate, and didn't display great skill in rudely interrupting people politely.
Click to expand...

A lot of this, I thought, was an artifact of the format. Pence was hogging up a lot of the 'free discussion' time and the moderator wasn't doing a great job time-keeping.
 
C

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
My point is that you can do really bad sampling techniques on a poll that make the poll bad and not worthwhile despite its high sample size.
Click to expand...

Except in order to qualify as a poll to be used in discourse, there are specific rules and guidelines you have to follow. AAPOR and NCPP are good places to start.

Silver goes into detail on some of it here:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-fivethirtyeight-calculates-pollster-ratings/

Also, being an anonymous online poll, there are no sampling techniques used...so you are trying to retroactively prove a point on something that the point actually isn't applicable to in any meaningful way.
 
F

Felix Lighter

Member
jbug617 said:
So you think Trump is going to take the townhall serious because of Pence's performance?
Click to expand...

I think he took the first debate as seriously as he possibly could but the man's a prisoner of his own brain. His discipline seems to have an expiration of about 20 minutes or whenever poked with the right topic.
 
I

Ithil

Member
Fragamemnon said:
Pence is clearly not presidential material, which IMO undermines the whole 'pence is running for 2020' argument. The better argument is that Trump''s statements and behavior are basically indefensible, but he broke with the rest of the Trump campaign (which do try to deflect and spin his remarks, looking comically awful in the process) by simply not defending them.
Click to expand...

Well no one has said he would win the nomination in 2020, let alone the presidency, just that he looks like he is aiming to run in the primaries.
 
I

IggyChooChoo

Member
Holmes said:
I think pushing the GOP as the party of Trump can work until 2020, but that'll be it. Until 2012 was about how long Democrats were able to paint the Republicans as the party of Bush, so I think the same time frame for Trump is realistic.
Click to expand...

I think it can go longer than that 1) specifically within the Hispanic community, and 2) if Trump keeps an unhinged, high media profile after he loses, which I think is likely.
 
B

blackw0lf

Member
Nazgul_Hunter said:
A lot of this, I thought, was an artifact of the format. Pence was hogging up a lot of the 'free discussion' time and the moderator wasn't doing a great job time-keeping.
Click to expand...

Yea that's another point. This was supposed to be a back and forth discussion, not "one candidate gets a few minutes and the other candidate then gets some minutes to respond"
 
I

Iolo

Member
blackw0lf said:
Yea that's another point. This was supposed to be a back and forth discussion, not "one candidate gets a few minutes and the other candidate then gets some minutes to respond"
Click to expand...

It was more like, Pence talks for 4 minutes, then gets the next question, and talks for another 4 minutes.
 
E

Emarv

Member
I will say Hillary taking days off for this is really smart. Don't get too overconfident. Work super hard to finish this here.
 
N

Nazgul_Hunter

Member
shinra-bansho said:
Are we going to start freaking out about Trump prepping like mad now for debate 2?

Too much hopium?
Time for a comedown.
Click to expand...

If there's anything funnier than an unprepared Trump, it might be an over-prepared Trump. First of all, to start preparing in earnest after debate 1 is basically like cramming the night before the test. My guess is that an over-prepared Trump doesn't sound normal, but erratic and jumping around his talking points.
 
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