eBay Huckster
Member
why are we worrying so much about a Cool Slogan three years out from the 2020 general and two years out from any actual announcements, again
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PoliGAF 2017 |OT4| The leaks are coming from inside the white house
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Because Congressional Dems need something to run on next year
eBay Huckster
Member
did the GOP need anything to run on in 2010 or 2014 beyond "kill the bill" and "Ebola Isis is coming to kill us all"
Not specific to the Wage/Productivity decoupling- just wages in general along w/ the economy and related politics of it, but there's stuff going on with the male labor force participation rates that is worth considering.
Blog post that came up in my timeline today that found that Prima Age Non-Participation Rate is a better fit for patterns of wage growth than Unemployment Rate. https://www.economy.com/dismal/anal...al&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
We have indeed been seeing a decline in the male Labor Participation rate. However, it is heavily gendered w/ only older women seeing any recent downward trend, and in the '80s & 90s, disguised by a mass influx of women into the labor market.
In addition, we're seeing very large differences in participations rate depending on the composition of the local economy: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2016/06/21/where-are-the-nonworking-prime-age-men/
That last part is important because these patterns that we're seeing w/ people movement aren't going to reverse themselves. http://overflow.solutions/demographic-data/population-change-in-each-u-s-county-from-2015-to-2016/
We're not just seeing massive gaps occur for urban v rural, we're seeing gaps in urban areas as well, where better-educated and/or larger areas have massive advantages over lesser-educated an/or smaller ones. There appear to be advantages to scale here that are effectively causing a mass amount of gravitational pull to draw people into these more-successful areas that has a snowball effect.
edit: I suspect ND may be anomalous here, however, because of the OPEC-induced oil price crash a few years back.
Blog post that came up in my timeline today that found that Prima Age Non-Participation Rate is a better fit for patterns of wage growth than Unemployment Rate. https://www.economy.com/dismal/anal...al&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
This would indicate that part of the story here is that the people not looking for jobs at the bottom of the labor market are part of the story w/ why wages haven't been rising as much as we'd assume even while accounting for the wage/productivity decoupling.Using Unemployment
Using Prime Age Non-Participation Rate
We have indeed been seeing a decline in the male Labor Participation rate. However, it is heavily gendered w/ only older women seeing any recent downward trend, and in the '80s & 90s, disguised by a mass influx of women into the labor market.
In addition, we're seeing very large differences in participations rate depending on the composition of the local economy: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2016/06/21/where-are-the-nonworking-prime-age-men/
According to data from the Census Bureau's
American Community Survey, in 2014, 81 percent of prime-age men nationwide were employed (this statistic differs from the labor force participation rate in that it omits those who are looking for, but not in, work). Yet among the nation's 374 metropolitan areas for which data are available, that rate ranged from over 93 percent in the oil boomtown of Midland, TX, to just over 50 percent in Kings County in California's Central Valley.
There are clear regional patterns to this important statistic. Many of the metro areas with the highest employment rates for prime-age men are smaller places located in the middle of the country, from the Upper Midwest, to energy-rich areas in Texas and the Plains states, to the Intermountain West. In several large, economically dynamic metro areas such as Denver, Houston, Minneapolis, San Jose, and Washington, D.C., rates of work among prime-age men are also very high.
Of much greater concern is the large number of metropolitan regions with very low rates of work among prime-age men. These include many small former industrial centers in states like Michigan, Indiana, and Ohio; areas of West Virginia and Louisiana that rely on declining-employment industries like mining; and long-struggling agricultural economies in Arkansas, Texas, and inland California.
These patterns echo findings from the CEA report that falling demand for labor is an important part of the long-term decline in prime-age male employment. In many places where a high school diploma alone once provided the gateway to a middle-class job, nearly one-third of men in this age group are out of work. This is also evident in the local relationship between educational attainment and work—where educational attainment rates are higher among prime-age men, members of that group are more likely to be employed. A 10-percentage point difference in employment rates separates the most highly-educated quarter of metro areas from the least highly-educated quarter.
Beyond education, size seems to matter, too. Large metro areas exhibit higher rates of work among prime-age men than small metro areas. Across the 100 largest U.S. metro areas, 83.2 percent of prime-age males are employed, compared to 79.8 percent in the smaller 274 metro areas. This relationship partly reflects that men in large metro areas have higher rates of educational attainment than those in small metro areas. Yet even men who have no more than a high-school diploma work at higher rates in large metro areas (64 percent) than similarly educated men in smaller metro areas (62 percent). Larger regional economies with greater economic diversity may stimulate stronger demand for workers at lower skill levels.
Several of the policies that the CEA report recommends to improve prime-age male labor force participation, such as bolstering investment in public infrastructure, reforming unemployment insurance, and boosting educational attainment could help boost rates of work in lagging U.S. metro areas. However, none directly addresses the fact that problems in male employment disproportionately affect small and often economically isolated U.S. regions. This evidence suggests that policies to help dislocated workers relocate to larger, more economically dynamic metro areas—particularly by
improving the supply of affordable housing in those regions—should be part of a comprehensive strategy to help reverse the troubling long-term decline in men's work.
That last part is important because these patterns that we're seeing w/ people movement aren't going to reverse themselves. http://overflow.solutions/demographic-data/population-change-in-each-u-s-county-from-2015-to-2016/
We're not just seeing massive gaps occur for urban v rural, we're seeing gaps in urban areas as well, where better-educated and/or larger areas have massive advantages over lesser-educated an/or smaller ones. There appear to be advantages to scale here that are effectively causing a mass amount of gravitational pull to draw people into these more-successful areas that has a snowball effect.
The problem for Dems and polticians in general: People. Hate. Change.
edit: I suspect ND may be anomalous here, however, because of the OPEC-induced oil price crash a few years back.
eBay Huckster
Member
and for that matter, what did the democrats in 2006 even run on?
I would argue that the base of the GOP and the base of the Democrats are fundamentally different. We've already seen that "Trump is bad" doesn't work
Basileus777
Member
"Culture of corruption" was a big and highly successful one.
eBay Huckster
Member
sounds like history's going to repeat itself, then
also that's the only big message I can even remember from that year
It's hard to an attack a candidate's record when they don't have one. (and people are very bad at inferring the correct things about their personal character.)
whyamihere
Banned
Watching some 1992 election coverage and it's funny to see Ann Richards say this given where the Democratic Party is today https://youtu.be/63Al95TrlO0?t=1h50m6s
Autodidact
Banned
I miss her so much. She would wipe the floor with Ted Cruz next year. Her 1988 convention speech should be the gold standard for any politician: witty and incisive yet honest and compassionate. She had so much more to give.
jack_package_200
Banned
Now thats someone who should go away forever.
On twitter, he blamed the DNC for a power outage.
Dude is a nut.
excelsiorlef
Member
God bless Tim, I find him utterly amusing and useful as a example of why just going all in on primarying someone without paying attention is stupid.
Autodidact
Banned
We seldom discuss Nelson in here. Usually we focus on red-state darlings McCaskill, Manchin, and Heitkamp.
Nelson won his last election pretty decisively. I think he'll be fine. I also think Tim Canova won't give him any trouble. He couldn't even beat Debbie Wasserman Schultz.
Nelson won his last election pretty decisively. I think he'll be fine. I also think Tim Canova won't give him any trouble. He couldn't even beat Debbie Wasserman Schultz.
excelsiorlef
Member
I just think Canova is splendid because some progressive raised a decent amount of money for him, and said some quite nice things about him
Ooops.... Turns out he's a wackadoodle.
So now it's:
I mean I don't generally endorse and fundraise for someone I know nothing about.
And I can't help but find it amusing. Because I'm a jerk.
Snowman Prophet of Doom
Member
I'm fairly certain walls are pretty cogent even for white dudes with a high school education.
Other concepts:
"The America We Deserve"
"Get America Working"
"Take Back the Future"
"Everyone Counts"
shinra-bansho
Member
Maybe if Unemployed Man can make a good enough slogan he can get employed again.
These are like slogans the Trump team came up with before settling on MAGA.
Deuce Deuce
Member
. Whoops accident.
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
This is a fascinating topic to me precisely because I don't really think we have a socioeconomic framework that has consistent answers to issues like this yet. As technology advances and culture shifts certain forms of labor become, well, less actually useful to people, and we don't want to artificially inflate labor that's not actually useful, and that's true regardless of who owns said labor. You can subsidize housing and even directly subsidize people moving to where their labor will be useful again like suggested here but a lot of people don't want to move from where their family has lived for 80 years and I don't think that's...unreasonable? At the very least I don't think "tough luck" is quite a satisfactory answer to them
Whatever the slogan is, it should be specific, and speak to the moment.
Any version of "tear down walls/barriers/obstacles" and "something something bridges" should be immediately trashed. They're all corny, overused, and evoke in the mind a boring and practiced politician.
EDIT: It bears repeating that Shirley Chisholm had the best slogan of all time: Unbought & Unbossed.
Any version of "tear down walls/barriers/obstacles" and "something something bridges" should be immediately trashed. They're all corny, overused, and evoke in the mind a boring and practiced politician.
EDIT: It bears repeating that Shirley Chisholm had the best slogan of all time: Unbought & Unbossed.
ArkhamFantasy
Member
"Make America Great Again, seriously, we're actually going to give you time stamps and reciepts."
HanShotFirst
Member
I like the "Better Deal" slogan as its a call back to Square Deal/New Deal/Fair Deal etc. But I also agree that adding "for America" makes it sound so much more appealing. Maybe the next Democratic presidential nominee can run with "Better Deal for America."
Autodidact
Banned
How about "Republicans Try, Democrats Deliver"?
Or does it make people think of delivery pizza?
Or does it make people think of delivery pizza?
Plan to defeat ISIS delivered in 30 days or your pizza is free!
Autodidact
Banned
Republicans Can Cash Me Ousside
For the emerging youth vote and their memes.
For the emerging youth vote and their memes.
Box of Kittens
Banned
My favorite part of 1992 coverage is the reaction to some of the state by state results. A Democratic candidate winning states like Vermont and New Jersey is seen as something of a novelty. To be fair, prior to that election, Vermont had only gone Democratic once. Ever.
RustyNails
Member
What was Bob Dole's campaign slogan? Paging benji.
Box of Kittens
Banned
skullmuffins
Banned
John Santucci @JTSantucci
Sources tell ABC News that Mark Corallo, spokesperson for Trump legal team working Russia probe had resigned. No word yet from Corallo.
Sources tell ABC News that Mark Corallo, spokesperson for Trump legal team working Russia probe had resigned. No word yet from Corallo.
Random Human
They were trying to grab your prize. They work for the mercenary. The masked man.
Won't be the last.
IggyChooChoo
Member
Your slogans are way too positive. The real lesson of 2016 is that Hillary didn't focus on Trump enough!
balladofwindfishes
Member
How is this a thing that still exists
Edit: Bob Dole was for Net Neutrality before Net Neutrality was a thing. In fact, reading this page, it reads like a current Democrat policy on the Internet
Edit: Bob Dole was like a bizarre mix of a modern day Democrat and a far right Republican if this website is accurate to his real beliefs
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
Legit remember him directing people to his website ("dubya dubya dubya...") like he barely knew what he was saying.
"BETTER"
That's it.
Democrats: BETTER
Kamala Harris: BETTER
Our Vision: BETTER
Our plan for jobs: BETTER
Our plan for the economy: BETTER
Our plan for healthcare: BETTER
Your Future: BETTER
Our Country: BETTER
Simple. To the point. Appeases the millennial urge to "Just fucking say it." Can be used in a wide variety of ad types. Jabs at Trump/Republicans without referencing them. And, funny enough, is actually true.
That's it.
Democrats: BETTER
Kamala Harris: BETTER
Our Vision: BETTER
Our plan for jobs: BETTER
Our plan for the economy: BETTER
Our plan for healthcare: BETTER
Your Future: BETTER
Our Country: BETTER
Simple. To the point. Appeases the millennial urge to "Just fucking say it." Can be used in a wide variety of ad types. Jabs at Trump/Republicans without referencing them. And, funny enough, is actually true.
Random Human
They were trying to grab your prize. They work for the mercenary. The masked man.
How is this not a thing they already know.
Brawly Likes to Brawl
Member
Man it feels so weird visiting sites from the Young Net.
RustyNails
Member
This is AMAZING. Lol
Autodidact
Banned
How about his wife's ability to stay on fucking message?
Every question, she responds with, "Well, Bob Dole thinks" or "Bob Dole would." Whenever the interviewer deviates, she steers him back: "I'm here to talk about Bob Dole's policies and his record..."
She even calls him by his full name as though they haven't been married for twenty years.
balladofwindfishes
Member
According to Bob Dole, the GOP's views on drug use hasn't changed in 20 years
Still the same "zero tolerance, jail first, ask questions later" nonsense and drug testing welfare. And those damn liberals with their "unproven social policies" to curve drug use
Still the same "zero tolerance, jail first, ask questions later" nonsense and drug testing welfare. And those damn liberals with their "unproven social policies" to curve drug use
Snowman Prophet of Doom
Member
Trump's got the market cornered on catchy, good slogans. Best we can hope to do is not run a respectable, rather than an embarrassing, second.
royalan: I generally would never propose anything having to do with walls except that, like, our current POTUS is literally fixated on a literal wall, so the metaphor is pretty damned current.
I like it
Young Web is my favorite rapper.
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