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PoliGAF 2017 |OT6| Made this thread during Harvey because the ratings would be higher

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J

JP_

Banned
thepotatoman said:
Sarah Kliff on Vox's Weeds podcast said there's talk among republicans of including health care on the reconciliation instructions alongside the tax reform instructions.

So maybe this ride isn't ending. Who knows, maybe the tax reform will be enticing enough to make people like McCain swallow back whatever his objections are to their repeal attempts. Or it might turn out doing two big and difficult bills in the same bill is as difficult as it sounds, and kills their tax reforms efforts as well.

I think I might prefer them to have instructions for both and go for broke on them getting nothing done, but it is worse if they actually get it to trump's desk.
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Uh, yeah, of course this ride isn't ending.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/9/25/16339336/graham-cassidy-republican-donors
 
F

fredrancour

Member
whyamihere said:
There are over 400 legislators in the NH House and they don't get paid so honestly a lot get bored and just retire early. One guy didn't realize how long it'd take him to get to Concord from his nursing home.
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holy christ this has triggered the "i can't believe it's not the onion" effect in my brain harder than anything else ever has. it hurts so much.

is there any good reading on how they wound up with 400 reps?

do i need to change my address to NH and commute into MA for the good of america?
 
E

exmachina64

Banned
thepotatoman said:
So maybe this ride isn't ending.
Click to expand...

Why would you think it’s ending? Missing the end of this reconciliation period means they can just start again in the next. They will keep working to repeal Obamacare and pass a law that makes health care objectively harder to access as long as they are the majority in Congress. This will not end for a long time.
 
A

A Human Becoming

More than a Member
pigeon said:
Yeah, I actually think Nate nailed it and we just live in a terrible timeline.
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The way people here treated him leading up to the election was unbecoming and I got sucked up into it.

He made mistakes and owned up to them. He's not perfect but his approach and analysis hold value.
fredrancour said:
holy christ this has triggered the "i can't believe it's not the onion" effect in my brain harder than anything else ever has. it hurts so much.

is there any good reading on how they wound up with 400 reps?

do i need to change my address to NH and commute into MA for the good of america?
Click to expand...
From a strategic voting perspective, it would be a very smart move. I said a few weeks ago that whenever I consider moving out-of-state I can't help recognizing how much more valuable my vote is here.

You'd also pay less in taxes. NH is considered a nice play to raise children if you have any.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
Well, a lot of the Nate Silver hate is because he comes across as such a douche. That having been said, I do think his model performed very well in the 2016 general. Any sensible model should have had Clinton as the favorite, but his model understood the uncertainty that comes with high numbers of undecideds to produce a relatively high win probability for Trump. The assumption of correlated state results probably also helped.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Um wow I didn't realize the Republican in FL SD 40 spent A MILLION DOLLARS on his race.

@Daniel_Sweeney
Not even looking at the political committees, Diaz spent more than $1M on this election and Taddeo spent just over $308k
Click to expand...
 
B

brianmcdoogle

Member
Silver was wrong both in the primary and general. His methodology at the time was not sound and was called out by other polling forecasters and experts who didn't screw up the primary. He stubbornly believed he was right and everyone was wrong long after the writing was on the wall mathematically and then made his general forecast, perhaps as a result of his primary fiasco, into something of a wishy-washy hookum. Some things he claimed are not without merit like state correlation, but there is no reason to be revisionist on his failures and attitude.
 
F

fredrancour

Member
A Human Becoming said:
From a strategic voting perspective, it would be a very smart move. I said a few weeks ago that whenever I consider moving out-of-state I can't help recognizing how much more valuable my vote is here.

You'd also pay less in taxes. NH is considered a nice play to raise children if you have any.
Click to expand...

yeah i can see its merits. i was launching into a rhetorical q explosion just because.

i still feel like the libertarian vs progressive struggle is one worth fighting on a local level within blue states though, so i'm kind of content for the time being.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
I mean Sam Wang called out Silver on his primary model (and his criticisms were largely valid). Wang's general election model gave Clinton a 99% chance of victory. Pretty hard to say his general election model was better than Silver's.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
brianmcdoogle said:
Silver was wrong both in the primary and general. His methodology at the time was not sound and was called out by other polling forecasters and experts who didn't screw up the primary. He stubbornly believed he was right and everyone was wrong long after the writing was on the wall mathematically and then made his general forecast, perhaps as a result of his primary fiasco, into something of a wishy-washy hookum. Some things he claimed are not without merit like state correlation, but there is no reason to be revisionist on his failures and attitude.
Click to expand...

All Nate had to go off of was the polls in the GE, and the polls showed Hillary largely winning -- though with an insanely large amount of undecideds right up until the very end. That added significant variables to his model that others (Sam Wang, Nate Cohn) didn't account for.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
whyamihere said:
Um wow I didn't realize the Republican in FL SD 40 spent A MILLION DOLLARS on his race.
Click to expand...
Goodness me.

Republicans just pissed away money everywhere tonight didn't they? Didn't Luther Strange spend like 10 million dollars?

Someone on Kos mentioned that the Florida Senate is the best it's been for Democrats since 2000. Well I think next year we can make it even better!

FL-SD-36 was 56-42 Clinton while FL-SD-18 was 51-45 Clinton. FL-SD-39, which isn't up until 2020 went 54-43 Clinton. Even if Democrats can pick up all three of those, they'll still need to flip two Trump districts to get to a majority before the next round of redistricting. At a glance, I'd say the most tempting targets would be FL-SD-8 (which only went for Trump by about 500 votes, 48.2% to 48%), FL-SD-9 (50-46 Trump), and a trio of seats up next year, districts 20, 22 and 24, all of which went roughly 51-45 Trump.
 
A

A Human Becoming

More than a Member
brianmcdoogle said:
Silver was wrong both in the primary and general. His methodology at the time was not sound and was called out by other polling forecasters and experts who didn't screw up the primary. He stubbornly believed he was right and everyone was wrong long after the writing was on the wall mathematically and then made his general forecast, perhaps as a result of his primary fiasco, into something of a wishy-washy hookum. Some things he claimed are not without merit like state correlation, but there is no reason to be revisionist on his failures and attitude.
Click to expand...
How was he wrong about the general? Their results were about the best you could expect based on the information available. It's people like Sam Wang who were way off and in his case later admitted he made a mathematical error.

I think there's a lot of revision going on, including here, on what happened leading up to the election. Let's not forget people here called him "bad Nate" and dismissed anything he said because he was wrong about the primary, even after he owned up to it.
 
B

Basileus777

Member
A Human Becoming said:
How was he wrong about the general? Their results were about the best you could expect based on the information available. It's people like Sam Wang who were way off and in his case later admitted he made a mathematical error.

I think there's a lot of revision going on, including here, on what happened leading up to the election. Let's not forget people here called him "bad Nate" and dismissed anything he said because he was wrong about the primary, even after he owned up to it.
Click to expand...

Most of that was about his bad punditry which was not vindicated by the election result.
 
E

Emarv

Member
Basileus777 said:
Most of that was about his bad punditry which was not vindicated by the election result.
Click to expand...

Not really. There was a lot of treating Cohn and Wang as the correct ones and treating Nate's statistical assumptions as incorrect around here. Silver was mostly right.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
On the Democratic win tonight that wasn't supposed to happen:

http://www.politico.com/states/flor...ng-in-sd-40-special-election-over-diaz-114732

Headed into Election Day, Republicans held a less than 500-vote lead following early voting. It was closer than the party hoped, but with a history of winning decidedly on Election Day, consultants and GOP cheerleaders alike had an overwhelming sense of confidence.

So, what happened?

“Taddeo got lucky. Part Trump. Part Irma. Part Arrogance,” said one dejected GOP operative.

Democrats were demoralized in 2016, losing the presidential race, the state’s U.S. Senate race, and not making the expected gains at the state level. Though there is a long way until 2018, the Taddeo win adds a spark of confidence desperately needed, especially for new Democratic Party Chairman Stephen Bittel, who faced headwinds from party establishment figures when first elected.
Click to expand...

Trump is deeply unpopular in Florida's 40th Senate District, which he lost to Democrat Hillary Clinton by about 16 percentage points in November. Republican Sen. Marco Rubio, however, carried the district by about 3 percentage points and the prior state senator, Republican Frank Artiles, won by about 10 points.

Artiles resigned during the spring lawmaking session after engaging in an alcohol-fueled racial and sexist tirade with a Democratic colleague at a private club near the state Capitol in Tallahassee.
Click to expand...

For Republicans looking forward, Trump's lack of popularity looms large.

Scott, who must leave office due to term limits, is considering a bid against Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson and, unlike many Republicans, has gone out of his way to embrace Trump and stand by the president. Diaz, however, was more nervous about his association with Trump and deleted a picture he posted on Twitter of Trump and him on Inauguration Day.
Click to expand...

Heading into Election Day, Democrats were nervous. After all, Republicans were winning the number of pre-Election Day ballots cast when compared to Democrats who voted by mail or at in-person early voting sites. And a last-minute request by Democrats to extend poll hours on Tuesda got rejected by Scott.

But internal party polling and Election Day vote tallies offered Democrats encouraging news because they show ed that Taddeo had handily won the coveted No Party Affiliation voters by a strong margin.

To do that, the Florida Democratic Party and affiliated progressive groups and unions say they worked together to knock on what they said were 50,000 doors of voters in the last four days of the election.

Democrats executed a similar strategy last month at the other end of the state in the St. Petersburg mayoral race, where Republican Rick Baker has been vexed by Trump. After a last-minute endorsement by former President Barack Obama, Mayor Rick Kriseman outperformed the polls and took the contest to a run-off that will be decided in November.

"This is a referendum, first with Kriseman coming from down in the polls to a first-place finish. And now Annette Taddeo winning Election Day by 19 points and winning NPAs in every segment of the vote, according to the initial numbers," said Juan Peñalosa, a strategist for the Florida Democratic Party. "Democrats and progressives came together to win this election, we are unified, and we have the momentum going into 2018."

It also represents something Florida Democrats have not seen in a long time: a victory over the Tallahassee special interest machine.

“Wonder how many lobbyists from [Diaz’s] party are in Ubers’ on the way to wherever Annette’s’ is,” joked one Democratic consultant.
Click to expand...
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
jesus

Jzoj218.png
 
N

neurosisxeno

Member
So now that Republicans have essentially failed to repeal Obamacare for the like 6th time since the beginning of the year, Tax "Reform" is next on the agenda. Not sure how they can cut taxes when they won't have the benefit of a few hundred billion dollars in Obamacare money to eat the loses, but that's a discussion for another day.

I have a feeling they are going to fail at it monumentally. The Trump supporters that are at this point the GOP base, want economic populism, but McConnell and Ryan have made it abundantly clear they are focused on cutting the Corporate Tax Rate, and knowing them probably the Estate Tax. There's no way all of those people stick with the party or even with Trump if McConnell and Ryan get their way. I still doubt they will since it will turn into the Freedom Caucus saying they want Spending Cuts and something insane like a Fair Tax while Moderates will be comfortable with slashing the Corporate Tax Rate down to like 20%.

Lets say they are somehow successful in doing it. They are then going to be running in 2018 with their only major accomplishment being having cut taxes on the richest entities in the entire country, and having almost succeeded in slashing the shit out of peoples health insurance--a move that has proved impressively unpopular. I want to believe that motivates people enough to generate a Democratic Wave for 2018, but who knows. I think people like the concept of "Lower Taxes!" but don't realize it usually doesn't apply to them. There are about a dozen ways Republicans could cut taxes--and they are the GOP's 12 favorite ideas I imagine--that the bottom 90% of earners or more would see literally no increase in their take home. In fact, they have consistently presented ideas that shift the burden in a way that results in that bottom 90% paying more in taxes.

I really don't understand how people can look at the GOP's accomplishments in the past and on the state level as of recent and think they have peoples best interest at heart. They barely have a platform that benefits actual people in any way--instead favoring corporations and the free market in most scenarios--let alone one that improves their lives.

whyamihere said:
jesus

Jzoj218.png
Click to expand...

Did something specific happen in 92 that really pissed them off? Did they just hate Clinton that much or was their some change in the law that lead to this massive shift?
 
F

Fragamemnon

Member
neurosisxeno said:
Did something specific happen in 92 that really pissed them off? Did they just hate Clinton that much or was their some change in the law that lead to this massive shift?
Click to expand...

the panhandle, like the rest of the deep south, lost its mind in the 1994 midterm realignment election. So then you had the GOP in the panhandle + GOP in South Florida and the affluent-and aging-burbs. It's a tough nut to crack.

Also the GOP is exceptionally well organized in Florida, and the state Dem party has been a basket case for nearly two decades.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
The Florida GOP is also one of the few places in the country that has been able to take advantage of ticket splitting to their benefit, though as we saw tonight, that can only get you so far.

lol OF COURSE 3 of the 4 Hillary seats held by Republicans in the Florida state senate aren't up in 2018. Absolutely no way Democrats can take back this chamber next year.

R districts up next year:

Hillary+10.3% (39)
Trump+19.6 (27)
Trump+11.6 (25)
Trump+14.6 (23)
Trump+18.1 (21)
Trump+19.5 (17)
Trump+3.9 (9)
Trump+22.8 (7)
Trump+48.4 (5)
Trump+32.6 (1)

You go after SD29, SD9, and then...?????? That would bring you to 18 of 20.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
exmachina64 said:
Why would you think it's ending? Missing the end of this reconciliation period means they can just start again in the next. They will keep working to repeal Obamacare and pass a law that makes health care objectively harder to access as long as they are the majority in Congress. This will not end for a long time.
Click to expand...

It's not as simple as just starting again the next budget unless they don't want to do tax reform or want to end the filibuster.

They wait for 2019 and even if they maintain a majority, it will most likely have shrunk, making it harder still.
 
C

chadskin

Member
In New York, Tillerson held two bilateral meetings with his Russian counterpart. But before his second meeting in Midtown’s luxurious Palace Hotel, Tillerson flipped the script and asked Lavrov if the two men could meet alone. That decision kept Under Secretary of State Tom Shannon, the top acting US official for Europe, Elisabeth Millard, and other US officials outside the room for 45 minutes while the two men talked privately. State Department officials declined to give a full readout of the conversations, but Lavrov came away from the meeting with an upbeat view of the US–Russia relationship.

“[Trump] wants to have good relations with Russia, understanding that this would be in the American interest,” Lavrov said in an interview after the meeting. “What I feel talking to Rex Tillerson is that this is the position of the administration. They are not happy with the current state of relations.”
Click to expand...
https://www.buzzfeed.com/johnhudson/us-and-russia-quietly-end-diplomatic-tailspin

Nothing to see here.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
I don't know how anyone can say Bad Nate was "wrong" about anything, ultimately. I thought he was annoying with his commentary and subtweeting but ultimately he was right about the degree to which states moved together (vs. independently) and on the high level of uncertainty in the outcome. I'm definitely not doubting him in 2020. If anything, I will ignore Sam Wang.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Y2Kev said:
I don't know how anyone can say Bad Nate was "wrong" about anything, ultimately. I thought he was annoying with his commentary and subtweeting but ultimately he was right about the degree to which states moved together (vs. independently) and on the high level of uncertainty in the outcome. I'm definitely not doubting him in 2020. If anything, I will ignore Sam Wang.
Click to expand...

Am I misremembering, or didn’t he repeatedly say throughout the primary that Trump had no chance of winning?
 
W

Widdle Puppy

Banned
How do y'all handle a cowork who says something racist when you're having lunch together? A coworker just said the crime in the dangerous neighborhoods of the UK is being done by "the blacks." All I could do was nod awkwardly :/ such a shit feeling.
 
J

jtb

Banned
I definitley skeptical of Nate after the primaries, I thought he was way overcompensating for his primary fuckup. He was right, I was wrong.

And of course the failing New York Times completely bungled the 2016 election and continue to churn out some of the worst political reporting on this administration. Maggie and Thrush are a little Trumpian in that regard - the lady doth protest too much. It's not like they're Times lifers, so their overcompensation for 2016 coverage (that they didn't even have that much to do with) is a little transparently obvious when they defend the institution with such kneejerk loyalty.
 
R

Rebel Leader

THE POWER OF BUTTERSCOTCH BOTTOMS
With one Yes vote in hospital & very positive signs from Alaska and two others (McCain is out), we have the HCare Vote, but not for Friday!

We will have the votes for Healthcare but not for the reconciliation deadline of Friday, after which we need 60. Get rid of Filibuster Rule!
Click to expand...

Huh, what?
 
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