-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
PPP Super Tuesday Dem polls - Clinton leads FL & NC, DEAD HEAT(!) OH/ IL/ MO
- Thread starter Black Republican
- Start date
- Status
CloudyTuba
Member
The wins are symbolic. It's a mistaken appeal to Bernie's "viability" as a candidate that he can win states over Hillary. The reality is that he needs to overcome a whole lot of tough math to beat her in the delegate count. Add in super delegates (who are very likely to protect the establishment candidate) and Bernie's chances look very slim. I guess one could characterize Bernie supporters as unrealistic, but, does that differ from advocates of other causes?
lol
But yeah, even if Bernie wins OH, IL, and MO (which is a tough climb since he can't be as laser focused on all 3 like he could be in Michigan and I'm a little suspicious that their LV screens have changed), marginal wins would still be upset by huge wins in FL and NC. Clinton's delegate lead is going to surge tomorrow, and wins in smaller caucus states and WA later this month won't do enough to cut into.
CALIFORNIA: AMERICA'S BACKSTOP
boiled goose
good with gravy
Voting for sanders (or anyone) makes a difference whether they win or not in the end.
Yep. "How much violence at my rallies, basically NONE. Well I guess there was one guy that got punched or something..."
Yeah ok Trump.
Deciding to move to the left because of a minority of primary voters sounds like a terrible idea.
A strawman you propped up in the first place. FYI, that strategy is dog whistling criminal activity based on what's "possible".
It's possible Bernie Sanders is a lizard person who eats human brains for sustenance. He supports universal health care clearly to ensure a healthy food source for himself and free college education because it makes the brains taste better. And this is why he's opposed to legitimate gun control, it provides a smoke screen death count for all the brains he's been eating over the years. I mean, it's possible!
And this is where the real problem with ideologues like Sanders come in. It generates two distinct phenomenons within their base: 1. everyone else is suspect of all these alleged crimes against humanity while their guy is 2. the only real purist (true Scotsman if you will) in the debate. It's basically next level partisan polarization based on nothing but a coached up negative perception of the opposition. Screw facts. Leave rational thought at the door. Load up on your unfounded ad hominem weaponry and go to war because my guy is the only guy. If he can't win we'll scorch the earth so no one can.
I'm pretty sure the super delegates seated by the DNC aren't super concerned about backlash when they pick the Democrat who consistently wins among registered Democrats versus the non-Democrat winning among independents in open primaries.
If Bernie won more than 50% of the vote, he'd probably secure enough superdelegates to put him over the edge.
At this point, he's running a decent amount behind where Clinton was in 08, so that's not going to happen.
I think I have a better chance to walk through a wall. It's not zero according to physics.
They'll switch proportional to Bernies delegate leads, state by state, should he pull ahead. But for that to happen he has to run the table.
So goes California .. The way the rest of the nation went.
Based god is real ya'll. What an amazing story for Sanders, started as a no-name from Vermont and now he's winning national polls. Not only has Bernie made huge gains but he dominates the youth vote (including women), and has outraised even Hillary Clinton's campaign. Fascinating.
Of course he has to start winning yuge to make up for the delegate deficit...unless they're banking on Hillary losing the 'FBI primary' lol
Of course he has to start winning yuge to make up for the delegate deficit...unless they're banking on Hillary losing the 'FBI primary' lol
Everybody should vote for who they believe in. Sander's candidacy has brought a whole lot of important issues to the forefront of the Democratic party whereas before the establishment was perfectly content to ignore a bunch of topics for the sake of political expediency. It's great that the Democrats are becoming forced to own up to their failings and begin to tackle some of the tough problems.
I do take issue with Bernie supporters that have a skewed view of reality by denying the hard facts that he's losing this primary election to Hillary on a mathematical basis. There is a point where propaganda becomes a net detriment to society.
As an anecdote, a few Bernie supporters claim that they will back Trump over Hillary if she becomes the Democrat's nominee. Demonizing her with biased and unfair attacks may bolster energy and support for Bernie, but at the same time it damages the left's cause as a whole. Similarly, living in a bubble about the delegate counts will do no favors in the long-run after the Hillary/Bernie dust settles.
Hasn't she raised like double his money?
Looks like pollsters are learning from Michigan. "Oh yeah, independent voters DO exist!"
I think a not-small amount of republicans will switch to vote Dem in open primaries, just as some Dems are doing to try and block Trump. But, it will likely be too little, too late. Sanders wins most states by a few points, Clinton has won several (large) ones by 20+. She could win two more large states tomorrow by huge margins as well, if polls are accurate. A slim win in OH, IL, and MO will be symbolic at best for Sanders. He could surprise and win OH by 10 or so which would be big, but I reckon that's an outlier result.
After this week the pickings are slim for Sanders, too. Arizona and Washington are decent sized, although I wonder if Arizona will be a Hillary win with the Latino vote. New York is the next big apple (lol) but id be totally shocked if Sanders can even squeak a win there, much less something substantial. After that it's mainly PA, CA, and surprisingly Maryland has a lot of delegates up for grabs. New Jersey does too which is in Sanders' stronghold area of the NE.
I dunno, a Sanders comeback isn't impossible, but when you look at what is left and the margins he would have to win by, wow it would be intense. I dunno if it would be considered the biggest win or worst loss in primary history.
I think a not-small amount of republicans will switch to vote Dem in open primaries, just as some Dems are doing to try and block Trump. But, it will likely be too little, too late. Sanders wins most states by a few points, Clinton has won several (large) ones by 20+. She could win two more large states tomorrow by huge margins as well, if polls are accurate. A slim win in OH, IL, and MO will be symbolic at best for Sanders. He could surprise and win OH by 10 or so which would be big, but I reckon that's an outlier result.
After this week the pickings are slim for Sanders, too. Arizona and Washington are decent sized, although I wonder if Arizona will be a Hillary win with the Latino vote. New York is the next big apple (lol) but id be totally shocked if Sanders can even squeak a win there, much less something substantial. After that it's mainly PA, CA, and surprisingly Maryland has a lot of delegates up for grabs. New Jersey does too which is in Sanders' stronghold area of the NE.
I dunno, a Sanders comeback isn't impossible, but when you look at what is left and the margins he would have to win by, wow it would be intense. I dunno if it would be considered the biggest win or worst loss in primary history.
Bruce Springsteen
Member
PLEASE win Ohio Trump, I don't think he will though
Bernie's campaign outraised hers in Jan & Feb, he is like the Star Citizen of candidates when it comes to donations. One of the bigger impacts Based Bernie has is that he is making Hillary scramble money/time that was likely reserved for the general election.
TimeEffect
Member
Nvm, using google
MHWilliams
Member
He has an off chance if he can repeat the poll upsets in all five states. Likelihood is small though.
No, if you want Bernie Sanders, then you need to get out and vote for Bernie Sanders in the primary.
Vote. That is all.
Most important thing to read in this thread, regardless of the candidate.
lastflowers
Banned
It's almost impossible for Bernie to win at this point.
From here on out, he'd have to win 54% of the remaining delegates to have a chance (Not an average victory of 54% to 46%, but be awarded 54% of the remaining pledged delegates). More than half of those remaining delegates lay with California, New York, Florida, Pennsylvania, Illinois, and Ohio.
If he ends up splitting the delegates of those states evenly, he'd need 58% of the remaining delegates outside of those states to compensate. If he loses any of those six states to a moderate/significant extent, then he'd likely have to win 60+% of the remaining states outside of those six. He's expected to lose big in North Carolina and Florida tomorrow, so that 60+% is likely going to be the case. He has a chance to pull out upsets in Ohio, Illinois and Missouri - but he can't really afford to evenly split the delegates which is likely what he'd do if he pulled an upset. And New York is Clinton's backyard, and only 44% white (and 33% non-Hispanic white) - so he's likely to lose big there.
Is he going to win New Jersey, New Mexico, Arizona or Maryland? Probably not. Even California is a stretch.
He can potentially run up the delegates in states with white majorities, where he's had success in the past, but as Vox states - the contests he did well in previously were within New England (his backyard) or Midwestern Caucus States. Will he be able to do the same in these remaining white heavy states, which are Midwestern primary states (Ohio, Indiana, Wisconsin), Western states (Oregon, Utah, Idaho), or Appalachian states (Kentucky, West Virginia) - and are these victories going to be landslides to counteract what Hilary was able to do in the Southern states?
Having said all that, yeah - it's technically possible for him to close Hilary's lead... but that's only a statistical possibility. Not really a real world one.
From here on out, he'd have to win 54% of the remaining delegates to have a chance (Not an average victory of 54% to 46%, but be awarded 54% of the remaining pledged delegates). More than half of those remaining delegates lay with California, New York, Florida, Pennsylvania, Illinois, and Ohio.
If he ends up splitting the delegates of those states evenly, he'd need 58% of the remaining delegates outside of those states to compensate. If he loses any of those six states to a moderate/significant extent, then he'd likely have to win 60+% of the remaining states outside of those six. He's expected to lose big in North Carolina and Florida tomorrow, so that 60+% is likely going to be the case. He has a chance to pull out upsets in Ohio, Illinois and Missouri - but he can't really afford to evenly split the delegates which is likely what he'd do if he pulled an upset. And New York is Clinton's backyard, and only 44% white (and 33% non-Hispanic white) - so he's likely to lose big there.
Is he going to win New Jersey, New Mexico, Arizona or Maryland? Probably not. Even California is a stretch.
He can potentially run up the delegates in states with white majorities, where he's had success in the past, but as Vox states - the contests he did well in previously were within New England (his backyard) or Midwestern Caucus States. Will he be able to do the same in these remaining white heavy states, which are Midwestern primary states (Ohio, Indiana, Wisconsin), Western states (Oregon, Utah, Idaho), or Appalachian states (Kentucky, West Virginia) - and are these victories going to be landslides to counteract what Hilary was able to do in the Southern states?
Having said all that, yeah - it's technically possible for him to close Hilary's lead... but that's only a statistical possibility. Not really a real world one.
PlatypusDude
Member
Wouldn't shock me if Open primaries are abolished or at least Democrat and Republican Establishments try to get rid of them after this primary season, since they are part of the reason for the rise of Trump and Sanders.
DR2K
Banned
Yeah especially if she wins by even bigger margins than imagined in the south. Which she most likely will.
balladofwindfishes
Member
I don't think the Democrat establish really cares about Sanders winning some open primaries. Not enough to risk political backlash from changing it.
It's not like Sanders is threatening to collapse the entire party, as Trump is. Sanders also isn't commanding any sort of lead.
Sanders is basically filling the part of a political foil pretty well. He's forced Hillary to take some stands she might have not publicly supported before Bernie made them popular, and Bernie is a nice reality check that yes, this country is heading to the right direction, eventually, and it'll just take another decade or so of new voters and someone like Bernie will very much be possible (not Bernie though, he's too old)
It's not like Sanders is threatening to collapse the entire party, as Trump is. Sanders also isn't commanding any sort of lead.
Sanders is basically filling the part of a political foil pretty well. He's forced Hillary to take some stands she might have not publicly supported before Bernie made them popular, and Bernie is a nice reality check that yes, this country is heading to the right direction, eventually, and it'll just take another decade or so of new voters and someone like Bernie will very much be possible (not Bernie though, he's too old)
It's worth noting that the polls like two weeks ago showed Clinton winning all these states by double digits.
After Michigan happened all the pollsters were like, well, shit, we better not look stupid again, and then suddenly all the polls showed all the Midwestern states even.
So it's even more difficult than it sounds for Sanders to repeat the poll upsets, because the polls were already reweighted to include the assumption of a big upset. Sanders winning Illinois by 20 points wouldn't be a 20 point miss in the polls, it would be the equivalent of a 40 point miss in the polls. Which is flipping a coin level of accuracy.
I have a feeling NY is going to be closer than polls predict. Bernie has a strong presence as you go further north and get into pseudo-Vermont territory, the only place that is nearly guaranteed to win Clinton is the city, which is like a different universe from the rest of the state.
As a Bernie supporter I do know his chances are minimal, but it's important that I show solidarity for politics that I believe in. We really have no democracy until we solve the problem of wealth inequality and special interests influencing the government. This is issue #1 for me. Everything else comes second.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Stuff like this doesn't swing polls 20 points.
What? Hillary is super popular around here. She was a popular senator and we love her...
Even on Facebook, people my age seem 50/50 on Hillary/Bernie, even though we're all in our 20s. I'm from Western NY, 8 hours from the city, and Hillary remains popular here.
eddievanclaylen
Member
Voting in Illinois tomorrow for Bernie!
I know. The post I quoted and the thread I linked came from the same dude.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Oh, didn't even notice. Thought you were trying to say that thread would cause a 20 point shift.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Still think Bernie is going to lose all five of them. OH/IL/MO by smaller margins.
But as people have mentioned, even if he wins those 3 by small amounts he'll get crushed in the delegate race if he loses FL/NC by the projected amounts.
That's the problem, when Bernie wins it's usually by the skin of his teeth, when Hillary wins it's a 2-1 (sometimes more!) romp. For all the attention Michigan got, Hillary netted more delegates that night because Mississippi gave her like 83% of the vote.
But as people have mentioned, even if he wins those 3 by small amounts he'll get crushed in the delegate race if he loses FL/NC by the projected amounts.
That's the problem, when Bernie wins it's usually by the skin of his teeth, when Hillary wins it's a 2-1 (sometimes more!) romp. For all the attention Michigan got, Hillary netted more delegates that night because Mississippi gave her like 83% of the vote.
It really is not a disagreement of direction or policy.
It's a disagreement about tactics and timelines. Point in fact, without Obama in 2008 would Bernie even be running? Would Clinton have shifted as left as she has?
That's not something that is going to rip the party apart except those on the very fringe whos support is tenuous at all times (and not that important to being elected frankly).
balladofwindfishes
Member
There's an awful lot of the Democrat base that's Socially Liberal, but Fiscally Conservative, so it's always a fear of mine that the GOP will eventually drop their Socially Conservative weight and appeal to a pretty decent chunk of Democrats. Basically, business types who aren't bigots and don't want to be associated with bigots.
So the Democrats will need to be careful with any major shift left, although I think post Hillary, the party will be a lot more liberal. I think Hillary, herself, will be very much more liberal at the end of her second term.
So the Democrats will need to be careful with any major shift left, although I think post Hillary, the party will be a lot more liberal. I think Hillary, herself, will be very much more liberal at the end of her second term.
Sub_Level
wants to fuck an Asian grill.
The super delegates WILL support whoever is the winner of the primary season. But that person is going to be Hillary.
That's me! No to socialism and no to bigotry.
Would this even be possible to do and still win the republican primary?
titiklabingapat
Member
All those Republicans voting should tell you who they want as a candidate and who will be harder to beat in the general election.
Macho Madness
Member
You're basically asking for Bloomberg. The GOP base is most interested in social conservatism.
Yep
Bu bu bu your delegates would ruin the system through sheer number.
Well fuck me if a state that holds a majority of the population in the country has some sway right?
You're not upstate if you're western NY. And like I was saying, as you go north, that berning sensation becomes more apparent. You have SUNY Plattsburgh and SUNY Albany and their surrounding universities ballooning the number of younger voters in these areas. NYC will likely be very much for Clinton, then the middle/west will be a toss up, and the north will skew Bernie. At least, that's my prediction.
Not today, but something like that is very likely to happen.
The GOP has been on course for a disaster like Trump for a while now. The coalition that powered the Southern strategy is no longer strong enough to define American politics. Generally when a coalition declines it leads to party infighting and disintegration as each part of the coalition starts insisting on getting its needs before it's too late. You can pretty clearly see that happening here, with Trump representing the true rump of GOP power -- frightened reactionaries.
The problem is that, on their own, frightened reactionaries just aren't enough to win an election. But they're loud and obvious enough to make the GOP politically toxic and make it impossible for them to win elections. The day and age when you could run on a platform of explicit bigotry is over -- that's the whole reason for the Southern strategy in the first place.
Trump makes it pretty clear that this just isn't sustainable. If the GOP doesn't want to decline into a third-party, they'll have to retrench, dump the white nationalists, and rebrand themselves as a party with ideas that aren't just racism. It's pretty likely that it will be some kind of libertarian, maybe anti-security platform. That's going to take a while, and involve a lot of Democratic victories, but eventually it'll happen, and we'll get a new division between two parties to define American politics.
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked