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Predict the Biggest Box Office Bomb of 2016

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H

higemaru

Member
Warcraft seems like it'll make a killing internationally and about $60-$75 million domestically but I wouldn't be surprised if it went higher. If buzz is positive, I can see it doing half decently.

Gods of Egypt is going to bomb but it's not going to be devastating for those involved. It looks like even if it doesn't gross any money at all, it's not going to be that much of a blow for the studios. Looks like all parties saw how much of a trainwreck this was and got tax incentives and other things. So I'm sure Lionsgate will escape this basically unscathed. Good for them?

Tarzan is another Pan.

Yeah, Tarzan will be the biggest bomb all year. Unless some animated film with a bloated budget comes out of nowhere and quietly fades away.
 
K

kadotsu

Banned
My personal pick/hope:
images
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It would also be interesting to see a "nerd" movie bomb. Star Trek: Overdrift or Superlinereader vs. Voicemodulatorman seem to be prime candidates.
 
T

Trike

Member
Dash_Riprock said:
Like all the internet people who loved Snakes on a Plane?
Click to expand...

Bad example. Snakes on a Plane was not a box office bomb. It made almost twice it's budget. A better example would have been Scott Pilgrim vs. The World, which probably cost a bit more than Deadpool but did not make back its budget and had a lot of internet buzz. But Deadpool is more recognizable, appeals to a wider audience than the niche of Scott Pilgrim, and will end up making a lot of money through merchandising. I think there is a good chance that Deadpool will do well, or at the very least make back its money.
 
N

NDP_Mulcair

Banned
Hard said:
$140 MILLION behind Gods of Egypt? The special effects are going to be boss, but I'm almost certain the plot will be terrible.

$180 MILLION behind a Tarzan movie? In the year of our lord two thousand and sixteen?

$100 MILLION behind Warcraft? The name alone certifies a bust. The name Warcraft just has too much stigma behind it to get people to watch.
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The budget is not out yet for Warcraft. All we know it's going to be a 9-figure movie, which implies a budget of more than $100 million.

It could very well end up being >$150 million.
 
D

Dash_Riprock

Member
The love Mortal Kombat gets is bizarre to me. Yes, its not horrible like 99% of video game adaptation buts still cheesy and filled with terrible effects and bad acting (save for Lambert, of course). Yes, its the best video game adaptation by far, but that REALLY isn't saying much, when your competition is the likes of Prince of Persia, Max Payne and ANYTHING by Uwe Boll. At best, its so bad its good.

NDP_Mulcair said:
The budget is not out yet for Warcraft. All we know it's going to be a 9-figure movie, which implies a budget of more than $100 million.

It could very well end up being >$150 million.
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The shear amount of CGI and mocap being used suggest to me $150+ million. CGI is expensive, even bad CGI.
 
S

sarcastor

Member
3N16MA said:
Deadpool is probably working with a sub 100M production budget. All indications point to a manageable budget as Ryan Reynolds has said as much.

It won't bomb.
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It's opening valentine's day weekend against zoolander 2. It wont make a lot of money but it should break even internationally.


Huntsman 2 or now you see me 2 will probably bomb
 
K

Knastluder

Member
This is a little bit offtopic but can someone tell me why since 10 years or so movie posters look like complete generic shit? I can't fathom the fact how bad these things look. Do people really look at this God of egypts shit and say "Yeah that looks really neat and interesting for the audience" whereas a more logical and absolute natural response would be more like "I'm sorry boss but this look like garbage and If you disagree it's because you are lobotomized." The have months in preparations and that is the best they could come up with? It's probably not the artist fault because someone tells them what to do. Does nobody give a shit anymore? Is it too expensive? Do studios think the audience is too stupid if they don't plaster the faces of their super stars on the poster? Have you seen the IMAX posters for Star Wars TFA? These look great not the other one.
 
E

Engell

Member
Gods of egypt and tarzan have fail written all over them...

But would love if someone made a good ancient Egypt flick.
 
C

Chamber

love on your sleeve
Dash_Riprock said:
The love Mortal Kombat gets is bizarre to me. Yes, its not horrible like 99% of video game adaptation buts still cheesy and filled with terrible effects and bad acting (save for Lambert, of course). Yes, its the best video game adaptation by far, but that REALLY isn't saying much, when your competition is the likes of Prince of Persia, Max Payne and ANYTHING by Uwe Boll. At best, its so bad its good.
Click to expand...

It's just nostalgia, GAF is filled with 90s kids after all. If MK came out today, it'd get shit on like the live action Tekken did.

Which is bullshit because Tekken was better than MK. :(
 
T

Tatsumaki Senpuukyaku!

Member
Chamber said:
It's just nostalgia, GAF is filled with 90s kids after all. If MK came out today, it'd get shit on like the live action Tekken did.

Which is bullshit because Tekken was better than MK. :(
Click to expand...

It's a combination of nostalgia and being pretty close to the source material. It's still cheesy as fuck but the games were cheesy as fuck and the movie basically nailed the "vibe" of the games.

Street Fighter came out around the same time and isn't nearly as fondly remembered. Well, some people have started to like it ironically but I think the love for the MK movie is more genuine.
 
P

Penguin

Member
Chamber said:
It's just nostalgia, GAF is filled with 90s kids after all. If MK came out today, it'd get shit on like the live action Tekken did.

Which is bullshit because Tekken was better than MK. :(
Click to expand...

I like the Tekken movie, screw the sequel/prequel whatever part 2 was though!

But I think MK>Tekken

I would say... and for varying reasons MK>Street Fighter> Tekken> DoA

And all of their sequels are somehow much worse
 
D

Dash_Riprock

Member
Tatsumaki Senpuukyaku! said:
It's a combination of nostalgia and being pretty close to the source material. It's still cheesy as fuck but the games were cheesy as fuck and the movie basically nailed the "vibe" of the games.

Street Fighter came out around the same time and isn't nearly as fondly remembered. Well, some people have started to like it ironically but I think the love for the MK movie is more genuine.
Click to expand...

People love Street Fighter in a so bad its good kind of way. But people here seem to think that MK is a genuinely good film...
 
kruis

kruis

Exposing the sinister cartel of retailers who allow companies to pay for advertising space.
DMczaf said:
So many votes for Tarzan.

I really liked the trailer :\
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I liked the trailer too. I hope that so many people think the movie will bomb is because the production costs were so high that it would be difficult for the movie to make that money back, not that the movie looks like a turkey and will therefore bomb ...
 
J

jett

D-Member
Love for the MK film is 100% childhood nostalgia. It's cheesy, dated, has god-awful CG effects and fighting choreography. There's enjoyment to be had in a so bad it's good way, however. Which is more than can be said than the vast majority of video game adaptations. At best you have something utterly bland and forgettable in the way of Prince of Persia.

Imagine what the reactions would be today for a PG-13 MK movie. Cuz that's what it was.

Speaking on Tarzan, it's interesting to me that its trailer has way more views on YouTube than other movies that have been bandied about in this thread. Not that it actually means anything, but maybe there is some interesting in it. More than Huntsman Deuces at least.
 
D

Dash_Riprock

Member
kruis said:
I liked the trailer too. I hope that so many people think the movie will bomb is because the production costs were so high that it would be difficult for the movie to make that money back, not that the movie looks like a turkey and will therefore bomb ...
Click to expand...

I like the trailer too. The problem is that the movie is coming out a week after ID4-2, which I predict will be MASSIVE given how popular 90s nostalgia is right now. Tarzan, even with good reviews and WoM, may still end up being swept aside and ignored.
 
K

kswiston

Member
jett said:
Love for the MK film is 100% childhood nostalgia. It's cheesy, dated, has god-awful CG effects and fighting choreography. There's enjoyment to be had in a so bad it's good way, however. Which is more than can be said than the vast majority of video game adaptations. At best you have something utterly bland and forgettable in the way of Prince of Persia.

Imagine what the reactions would be today for a PG-13 MK movie. Cuz that's what it was.

Speaking on Tarzan, it's interesting to me that its trailer has way more views than other movies that have been bandied about in this thread.
Click to expand...

I think people are also subconsciously comparing it to Street Fighter and the other Mortal Kombat movie, which made it seem better back in the 90s.
 
C

Chamber

love on your sleeve
I feel like ID4-2 could make anywhere from $200M-$500M. If Will Smith was in it, I'd feel pretty comfortable with the upper range of that guess.
 
B

Bobby Roberts

Banned
Dash_Riprock said:
The problem is that the movie is coming out a week after ID4-2, which I predict will be MASSIVE given how popular 90s nostalgia is right now. Tarzan, even with good reviews and WoM, may still end up being swept aside and ignored.
Click to expand...

Nobody gives a fuck about Tarzan, and WB isn't going to miraculously make people start giving any fucks about Tarzan between then and now, because the concept of Tarzan is fucking corny and uninteresting on an almost irredeemable level. There's no brand to leverage, no fond memories to call back to, no zeitgeist to tap into. Even if it weren't dropping one week after Independence Day 2 (which is going to probably use up all its goodwill opening weekend anyway) it still wouldn't matter.

We got actual superheroes now. Tarzan movies in 2016 is like selling 56k modems to people trying to stream 4K Netflix.
 
H

Hashmal_Bringer_of_Order

Member
How can any of you think Warcraft is gonna bomb? Despite bleading subscribers as it moves towards the end of its run, around 50-100 million people have played World of Warcraft at some point, and both this sort of film and Warcraft especially are massive in Asia.

Even if this does <100m in the US, it's easily going to clear >500m internationally.
 
N

NDP_Mulcair

Banned
Hashmal_Bringer_of_Order said:
How can any of you think Warcraft is gonna bomb? Despite bleading subscribers as it moves towards the end of its run, around 50-100 million people have played World of Warcraft at some point, and both this sort of film and Warcraft especially are massive in Asia.

Even if this does <100m in the US, it's easily going to clear >500m internationally.
Click to expand...

dtI15EC.jpg


Around 100 million people have played Final Fantasy at some point! And look how well Sci-fi does in China...Interstellar sold a ton! Transformers? Pacific Rim? Terminator? All massive in China! And isn't Final Fantasy huge in Asia?

Production budget: $137 million
Total budget: >$155 million

Total box office: $85.1 million



There have been a number of spectacular failures of video game movies in the worldwide box office. They are very risky. Even Universal the distributor thinks it's a risky bet.

So it's very easy for a movie like this to fail spectacularly. Video game movies aren't a tried and true model of profit like comic book movies, much to the dismay of executives. So ">$500 million internationally" isn't a given in the slightest.
 
H

Hashmal_Bringer_of_Order

Member
NDP_Mulcair said:
Around 100 million people have played Final Fantasy at some point! And look how well Sci-fi does in China...Interstellar sold a ton! Transformers? Pacific Rim? Terminator? All massive in China! And isn't Final Fantasy huge in Asia?

Production budget: $137 million
Total budget: >$155 million

Total box office: $85.1 million



There have been a number of spectacular failures of video game movies in the worldwide box office. They are very risky. Even Universal the distributor thinks it's a risky bet.

So it's very easy for a movie like this to fail spectacularly. Video game movies aren't a tried and true model of profit like comic book movies, much to the dismay of executives. So ">$500 million internationally" isn't a given in the slightest.
Click to expand...

I see your point but the market has changed massively in the 15 years since Spirits Within came out. I just can't see Warcraft bombing. At worst i expect Pacific Rim style "under-performance"
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Tarzan (lolwut) or Gods of Egypt (looks so dull)

Batman v. Superman and Fantastic Beasts will probably do decently while not setting the world on fire. 500-600mil for BvS, 300-400mil for Fantasic Beasts.
 
G

Ghostmaster

Member
People who think that Warcraft will bomb internationally are crazy.

Not to mention it has like zero competition in the epic fantasy genre this year, and the last big movie in the genre was that awful third Hobbit movie, so if Warcraft can be at least as good as that it will do fine at the box office.
 
C

Count of Monte Sawed-Off

un33dab@dpu$$y
tearsintherain said:
Beyond the obvious picks like Tarzan (seriously wtf), Gods of Egypt, and Assassin's Creed (seriously.. a week after Rogue One?) some other ones

Ratchet and Clank
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2865120/

I guess without knowing the budget its hard to say, but probably bomb at the box office and do decent on dvd/streaming.

Ben-Hur
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2638144

Yes, a remake of Ben-Hur releasing during summer blockbuster time. Again don't know the budget, but its gotta be big (the 1959 version was the most expensive movie made at that period).

Angry Birds the Movie. who the fuck cares about those damn birds anymore
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Didn't realize Ben-Hur was coming out in the Summer. Seems like it would be a safer release in the fall. At least going by the book and the Heston movie.
 
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