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Prediction: Microsoft will become third party by the end of next gen.
- Thread starter RCU005
- Start date
Lucifers Beard
Member
I don't think they will at all. Like others have said, you would likely buy a massive publisher like ABK to sell systems.
Chittagong
Gold Member
I tend to agree.
Their public and now publicised comments say as much. Their ambition is to build a mobile gaming powerhouse, and potentially a Netflix-like business. They have said they don’t want to double down on consoles. It all hinges on them striking an unprecedented rev share deal with Nintendo and Sony for their Game Pass.
Not going to miss the console anymore. I loved the OG and 360 generations where they had exciting originals and innovative hardware and services. This generation I own two Series Xs and a Series S for travel, but they haven really got any playtime since Halo. The controller is same-same, and the interface is unchanged. There are no originals coming that tempt me except Fable.
The whole gaming journey is a bizarre 100B side quest for a trillion dollar company. Earlier you could rationalise that there is synergy with Windows or Azure, but now with ABK a bulk of the business there is very little shared ground.
To be fair, I am stunned if the final two is Nintendo and Sony. I would have put my money on Microsoft and Sony 20 years ago.
Their public and now publicised comments say as much. Their ambition is to build a mobile gaming powerhouse, and potentially a Netflix-like business. They have said they don’t want to double down on consoles. It all hinges on them striking an unprecedented rev share deal with Nintendo and Sony for their Game Pass.
Not going to miss the console anymore. I loved the OG and 360 generations where they had exciting originals and innovative hardware and services. This generation I own two Series Xs and a Series S for travel, but they haven really got any playtime since Halo. The controller is same-same, and the interface is unchanged. There are no originals coming that tempt me except Fable.
The whole gaming journey is a bizarre 100B side quest for a trillion dollar company. Earlier you could rationalise that there is synergy with Windows or Azure, but now with ABK a bulk of the business there is very little shared ground.
To be fair, I am stunned if the final two is Nintendo and Sony. I would have put my money on Microsoft and Sony 20 years ago.
N1tr0sOx1d3
Given another chance
20 years later and XBox has gone backwards not forwards. 360 era was incredible, since then XBox has been dreadful with 1st party.
Stare-Bear
Banned
Nope, they want to be number 1. They said it multiple times in emails to each other. They want Sony gone.
nightmare-slain
Member
Nah, I don't think so.
This is to build up Xbox/PC/Gamepass/xCloud.
Microsoft games like COD, Overwatch, Diablo, etc will still come to Playstation (at least for the first 10 years or whatever) but Microsoft will still be selling Xbox products and services.
This is to build up Xbox/PC/Gamepass/xCloud.
Microsoft games like COD, Overwatch, Diablo, etc will still come to Playstation (at least for the first 10 years or whatever) but Microsoft will still be selling Xbox products and services.
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Badlucktroll
Member
I hope they don’t try to make everything a cloud service where you don’t own your games and have to subscribe. I could see it happening if they decide to stop making xbox hardware.
MidGenRefresh
*Refreshes biennially
This is the correct answer. They release their games on Xbox, PC and offer cloud gaming services that you can access from hundreds of devices.
Moriarty1889
Member
Not happening. They will be bigger and own more studios and Xbox will become bigger as well. FACT.
Moriarty1889
Member
The Activision deal is just one more of many to come imo. MS have deeper wallets than anyone. They have also said that more acquisitions are likely. This will only build and bolster their brand while making Xbox a more compelling platform.
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Bojanglez
The Amiga Brotherhood
I think the closest that might (but still probably unlikely to) happen is that if they don't see a shift to Xbox consoles for Gamepass, they may create a first party only offering on PlayStation and Nintendo eventually, but even then they'd keep their console business to keep Sony on their toes.
chromatic9
Member
Popularity can flip quite fast, look at the Wii U, or even the first half of the 360 vs PS3, MS had a very good momentum with Halo 3 Gears, Mass Effect, Bioshock, GTA IV DLC, COD marketing.
MS will buy enough to make them the main console platform. Sony will have to work very hard coming up with competitive ips that Zenimax, Activision have, and surely more third party games becoming exclusive or Xbox being the best place to buy them on like COD will be if this 10 year deal happens. Of course MS could make a mess of these acquisitions.
MS are trying to position themselves as the main download and streaming platform for gaming long term. They have the servers and the clout so this console platform paradigm is on it's end phase. The new generation of gamers will be more into renting/subbing/streaming games.
I see Sony gaming becoming third party or part of bigger corp like Apple. Not sure when this will be 15-30 years? Is just seems like you'll own nothing and be a linked to a mega corp of which the name doesn't matter, MS Apple, Tencent. Hardware will be niche legacy type.
MS will buy enough to make them the main console platform. Sony will have to work very hard coming up with competitive ips that Zenimax, Activision have, and surely more third party games becoming exclusive or Xbox being the best place to buy them on like COD will be if this 10 year deal happens. Of course MS could make a mess of these acquisitions.
MS are trying to position themselves as the main download and streaming platform for gaming long term. They have the servers and the clout so this console platform paradigm is on it's end phase. The new generation of gamers will be more into renting/subbing/streaming games.
I see Sony gaming becoming third party or part of bigger corp like Apple. Not sure when this will be 15-30 years? Is just seems like you'll own nothing and be a linked to a mega corp of which the name doesn't matter, MS Apple, Tencent. Hardware will be niche legacy type.
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RoboFu
One of the green rats
It’s really not that bad of a plan to become the biggest publisher out there but only one thing brings this theory down. MS doesn’t just care about selling games. It’s not the main focus.
They want to be THE service of the future and gaming is the closest IN to that they have accomplished. They want a service that you go to buy things, get news, buy movies and tv, social media … ect. And the big bucks out of all this is advertising.
You have had to realize by now that this is everyone’s goal. It’s why everyone has their own streaming service. eventually everything is going just be service apps on devices .. yes even games.
They want to be THE service of the future and gaming is the closest IN to that they have accomplished. They want a service that you go to buy things, get news, buy movies and tv, social media … ect. And the big bucks out of all this is advertising.
You have had to realize by now that this is everyone’s goal. It’s why everyone has their own streaming service. eventually everything is going just be service apps on devices .. yes even games.
Sanepar
Member
Well i just hope that hw stil be an option in 20 years. If i can keep playing on local pc and steam I don't care what ms buys.
Bitmap Frogs
Mr. Community
Let’s hope this dark future never materializes.
diffusionx
Gold Member
I've said it multiple times on here, I think MS gaming has a far higher ceiling if they dropped Xbox and focused on PC and third party. They've never been a hardware-focused company, Xbox consoles have always been a weird fit for them, and they've only had limited amounts of success in only a few spots in the past 22 years. Even now, the Xbox app on PC is doing really well and offering something unique that you can't get on Steam, but on console, they're held back because they are attached to this console platform that has only a small part of the overall market.
Roni
Gold Member
Well, that was fast...
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Doctor Hades
Member
I am not sure Microsoft have a large enough library of IPs to go third-party software only next generation like, say, SEGA did after the Dreamcast flopped badly. GamePass seems to compromise of mostly third-party games with a few (too few in my opinion) Microsoft only games thrown in. Yes, they been buying up developers and publishers so they could potentially get there for the generation after that. I guess it all depends on whether Microsoft are still in last place with the next generation, which I kind of expect they will be. Microsoft and Xbox are just not as popular outside of the US and they don't have the reputation for quality games that industry leaders like SEGA, Nintendo and Sony have.
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MALpractice311
Member
Monopolies. Are. Bad.
Corporations. Are. Not. Your. Friend.
I'm not sure what fuck-wits managed to get through 11th/12th grade Economics 101 and not understand these basic concepts. Once Microsoft owns everything, or at least enough of everything, they will control the market and set prices. There will be no or minimal competition, which will mean no motivation for MS to keep prices low or innovate or provide good services/goods.
Corporations. Are. Not. Your. Friend.
I'm not sure what fuck-wits managed to get through 11th/12th grade Economics 101 and not understand these basic concepts. Once Microsoft owns everything, or at least enough of everything, they will control the market and set prices. There will be no or minimal competition, which will mean no motivation for MS to keep prices low or innovate or provide good services/goods.
Gavon West
Spread's Cheeks for Intrusive Ads
Still doesn't make them 3rd party - even with select titles on rival platforms. The bulk of their games exist primarily in their ecosystem. Microsoft has already stated they have no to go 3rd party. Nadella might not be a fan of exclusives but he understands the nature of the beast. Exclusives are a necessity on this business to persuade future and current console owners to the ecosystem.
Consoles might not always be a thing but, imo, exclusives will be. Its literally what differentiates each of the Big 3.
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Gavon West
Spread's Cheeks for Intrusive Ads
This is fear mongering. Microsoft is not out to own everything. They're just done with not being able to compete with the dominant market leader. Now they are.
BlackTron
Member
There is an association of "going third party" with the destruction of a console business and "giving up". Basically pulling a SEGA. The implication is that a console maker would never support their competition's platforms with their own games, while they have their own system to support.
But the rules have changed. Microsoft has something more important to them than supporting their console: supporting their software business, which sometimes means, yes, being a third party and releasing games on the competition, and even making huge swaths of your library playable on PC. They are doing this for software's sake while still offering the console. They really are both 1 and 3rd party, as we speak.
Maybe it should be "never go FULL third party" which is what SEGA really did lol. I would also argue that what differentiates the big 3 is where you can play it. If MS puts out a game and you can play it on Xbox, and PC, and maybe even Playstation as well, that's a pretty massive differentiator from Nintendo where you know every single last game with require a Switch without having to bother to ask (because they have pure first party exclusivity and everyone gets that message)
MALpractice311
Member
Yes, they want to be dominant by BUYING everything, thereby reducing free market competition, which is what a monopoly does. They've given up on trying to be dominant by being creative and providing engaging, high quality products and services, which is how Sony and Nintendo got to where they are. MS is trying to shortcut their way to success, which is going to harm consumers.
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T0minator
Member
You buy a massive publisher like ABK to sell subscriptions**
MS makes more off subs than consoles. Every gen MS is losing money on each console sold. I could see MS wanting to keep everything everything Bethesda and Activision behind their ecosystem. Other publishers and studios would gravitate towards Nintendo and Playstation even more. The future is obviously up in the air.
These acquisitions are giving Xbox a fighting chance against PlayStation and Nintendo because we all know MS and their Xbox teams lacks the talent themselves
IFireflyl
Gold Member
Microsoft is either playing 5D chess when I'm still playing checkers, or their words and actions are completely nonsensical. At first I thought it was the latter, but I'm starting to wonder if there is a bigger picture that they see that I'm just not intelligent enough to understand.
lostinblue
Banned
Netflix is very profitable, and if you look at the math of the streaming deal, the pool of money generated every month is massive and very sustainable. It's a bit like the gym, you have people paying and they don't even go there. People will pay for a full year, just to see a 24 episode series. no matter how you slice it it's no wonder they manage to buy and produce more content than a TV channel even if they mismanage the funds, and butcher the quality control. If anything the issue with streaming apps, is that most of them write checks and then wait for content to be delivered. It's basically the equivalent of betting on horses when they should be breeding and training the horses.
This said, what happens when you run a company is that you want to raise profits to cash in and give to your investitors, that's the capitalist way of doing things, hence Netflix seeming like it's bleeding money because it's raising prices once again and doing what seem to be high risk passes. The truth though is that they simply crashed the growing bandwagon and want money to still come out on top, better than before.
People running the business don't care about the business they want to cash in and fast. Netflix is basically being run like Bobby Kotick runs Activision-Blizzard. If things go awry they'll dump and go elsewhere, until then they'll abuse their position.
As for Netflix competition, also profitable, I don't see any streaming service being shuttered, it's an infant market so they're still consolidating. With Disney Plus you're right they're bleeding, but it's an investment, they didn't have to invest as much basically.
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FullMetalx117
Member
People have it backwards - you don’t invest this kind of money to only be bound to Xbox. Otherwise the deal will never workout. Xbox by itself will never sell over 200 million systems for the market size to make this deal worth it. Microsoft’s goal to have the largest market available to them, with their lever/controls in place in a service platform like Gamepass. And then eventually put that service on whatever that market looks like - Sony/Nintendo/Apple/Amazon/Google and maybe Microsoft if they launch a new console. Maybe they have Gamepass incentives if you buy a Microsoft console.
Chittagong
Gold Member
In the end the math is really simple
A = Hardware profit
B = Game Pass profit
C = Platform fee profit
Now, let’s calculate the break even on having s console:
- 50 million Xbox consoles
- 200 million Nintendo + Sony consoles
- 3 attach rate of boxed sw for Xbox
- 30 % platform fee on Xbox
- 80% attach rate of GP for Xbox
- 40% attach rate of GP for Sony & Nintendo
- 15% rev share deal on GP with Sony & Nintendo
Having a console
A = 0 * 50 (no profit in HW)
B = 1 * 1.0 * 50 (80% attach rate)
C = 0.2 * 50 * 3 (3 games attach rate)
Total 70 monies
Going third party
A = 0 * 0
B = 0.3 * 0.85 * 200 (40% attach, 15% rev share)
C = 0 (no platform feed)
Total 68 monies
It’s pretty hard to make the numbers sweeter for Xbox, so going third party is almost inevitable if they can strike a 15% rev share with Nintendo and Sony for GamePass.
A = Hardware profit
B = Game Pass profit
C = Platform fee profit
Now, let’s calculate the break even on having s console:
- 50 million Xbox consoles
- 200 million Nintendo + Sony consoles
- 3 attach rate of boxed sw for Xbox
- 30 % platform fee on Xbox
- 80% attach rate of GP for Xbox
- 40% attach rate of GP for Sony & Nintendo
- 15% rev share deal on GP with Sony & Nintendo
Having a console
A = 0 * 50 (no profit in HW)
B = 1 * 1.0 * 50 (80% attach rate)
C = 0.2 * 50 * 3 (3 games attach rate)
Total 70 monies
Going third party
A = 0 * 0
B = 0.3 * 0.85 * 200 (40% attach, 15% rev share)
C = 0 (no platform feed)
Total 68 monies
It’s pretty hard to make the numbers sweeter for Xbox, so going third party is almost inevitable if they can strike a 15% rev share with Nintendo and Sony for GamePass.
Gavon West
Spread's Cheeks for Intrusive Ads
False. Show receipts where they are trying to buy everything. I'll wait....
Nothing? Ok...
This merger has gone through its course, quite thoroughly I might add. Will this merger hurt Sony? Probably. Will it hurt consumers? It's been judged around the entire planet that it does not hurt consumers at all. The bulk of Sony's studios were acquired. 80% of their studios were bought.
At this point, it's been shown why Microsoft went this route. They would never be able to compete with Sony playing by Sony's playbook. The risks are too high by building studios from the ground up. The ONLY option they had was to purchase publishers to guarantee that those titles don't skip Xbox. Starfield was the last straw. Sony tried to purchase starfield and make it exclusive. Microsoft bought the farm instead.
ABK strong armed Microsoft to give them a higher percentage of the profits for putting CoD on Xbox consoles because of Sony's dominant roll in the market. The shit had to end somewhere. Now it has. And the market and consumers are better off for it.
You may not agree with the change of the status quo. That's cool. You don't have to like it. It changes nothing though. Furthermore, it's completely legal for Microsoft to do what their doing to strengthen their position in the market. Sony does the same thing. Have been for decades. Are you seriously going to begrudge Microsoft for playing the same game with more money?
I personally can't blame them. They're doing what they need to, to stay relevant and financially viable in the market. We all benefit from this merger. It is what it is
cartman414
Member
???
Roronoa Zoro
Gold Member
As long as they also give the option to buy those games physically on PS like they've done with the quake releases I'd be fine with that. Would never sub and would likely get anything that used to be a third party ip when it was $20 or lower but I'd give them money for elder scrolls, doom, etc
Roronoa Zoro
Gold Member
They didn't have no choice. They could have stayed where they were with Xbox one and just been a profitable smaller piece of the pie, probably larger than that since they wouldn't have the initial muck ups of the Xbox One launch and would now have Gamepass and their studios they got in 2018 plus the gradual build they could still do. Look how Sony built up after the disastrous ps3 launch
And spend the r&d so valve can make all the money. If Microsoft exits they will release the small studios and sell the big ones. There is zero point in not making a lot of money as a 3rd party.
lastmessiah
Member
Bwahahahaha. Keep it comin’, I love it
azertydu91
Hard to Kill
Just for the record
https://kotaku.com/xbox-microsoft-deal-merger-sega-bungie-emails-niantic-1850579087
https://en.as.com/meristation/news/...os-and-publishers-for-possible-acquisition-n/
Sure that's not the whole industry, just really close to it.
![L*][*N*K](/data/avatars/m/842/842515.jpg?1696510303){kind=avatar}
L*][*N*K
Banned
I actually would love that for them, they have a massive work force and they can basically print money with 12 games a year (at the very least), Microsoft will also have some major cash cows like Call of Duty, Halo, all of Blizzard games...etc and that can fun creative smaller games that could potentially be hits.
DenchDeckard
Moderated wildly
I'm all for whatever works for us the best.
We need a competitor in hardware, so if someone else steps in and offers some bad ass home device like a console and Microsoft can put game pass everywhere. Whatever works.
I think MS male great hardware, so they should stay of it makes sense.
We need a competitor in hardware, so if someone else steps in and offers some bad ass home device like a console and Microsoft can put game pass everywhere. Whatever works.
I think MS male great hardware, so they should stay of it makes sense.
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