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[dem]

Am I crazy or did I read that there was going to be a new NFS Underground game for x360 at launch?

If thats true.. with Madden and NFS Underground.. ITS OVA JOHNNY


and by Johnny I mean sony

 

[Razoric]

Why do you people insist on comparing Xbox 360 to Dreamcast? DC failed because it was SEGA. People don't like Sega like you guys do. After Sega CD, 32X, and Saturn who the fuck would buy a DC?

MS is releasing Xbox 360 with a very happy Xbox fanbase. It's not even in the same ballpark as the DC release.

 

[mrklaw]

360's headstart is gonna be the turning point. When 360 hits, consumers are going to see games doing things they've never seen before and be wowed, whereas when PS3 hits, it won't have that impact because there's already something comparable on the market

Whether DC comparisons are fair overall, on this specific point I think it is. DC was doing things that people had never seen before. Way beyond PS1. And people still believed Sony's lines and waited. And it can be argued that PS2 launch titles were not up to DC quality, and people still went with sony.

 

[thorns]

Dreamcast truly had an awesome early advantage with a killer lineup, but it didn't help it and cash reserves was only a part of thier failure.

Dreamcast had a good launch line up for sure, but it didn't have a true massmarket game, like Halo or GT. As good as SC is, it's still just a fighting game, which have lost a lot of ground since the days of the arcades.

 

[soundwave05]

People compare the XBox 360 to the Dreamcast because it'll have to face some of the same challenges the Dreamcast had to ...

- Being less powerful
- The subsequent Sony "wait for the real next gen system" hype that results from that
- Being a step behind format wise (no HD-DVD or Blu-Ray)
- Not being the market leader
- Some question marks with certain third parties, specifically the big Japanese ones

It's not directly comparable, but yeah there certainly are some similarities too that don't just magically disapear just because the name on the box is Microsoft.

 

[human5892]

Why do you people insist on comparing Xbox 360 to Dreamcast? DC failed because it was SEGA. People don't like Sega like you guys do. After Sega CD, 32X, and Saturn who the fuck would buy a DC?

MS is releasing Xbox 360 with a very happy Xbox fanbase. It's not even in the same ballpark as the DC release.

I agree that a full-on comparison has little merit, but there are some similarities worth paying attention to.

Plus, at this point, with very little officially known about either console, we might as well look to history to try and place things into context a little.

 

[gollumsluvslave]

Dreamcast had a good launch line up for sure, but it didn't have a true massmarket game, like Halo or GT. As good as SC is, it's still just a fighting game, which have lost a lot of ground since the days of the arcades.

Good post. if you really look at the Dreamcast's fantastic launch line-up, it is predominantly arcade oriented' understandably.

For good or ill, gaming nowadays has moved away from being arcade-oriented.

 

[Borys]

MS is releasing Xbox 360 with a very happy Xbox fanbase. It's not even in the same ballpark as the DC release.

The point is MS has to persuade the SONY & OTHER fanbase to buy 360. Going with the original Xbox 1 fanbase won't cut it in the long run.

 

[Shig]

Whether DC comparisons are fair overall, on this specific point I think it is. DC was doing things that people had never seen before. Way beyond PS1. And people still believed Sony's lines and waited. And it can be argued that PS2 launch titles were not up to DC quality, and people still went with sony.

The main reason people were persuaded to wait for PS2 was DVD. Bar none. You could say the games would look better than DC and that could get some people on it's side, but stating that it would have DVD playback, when the DVD market was growing and DVD players by themselves were still expensive, was the absolute dealbreaker that got people to wait.

Blu-ray will not be on the scale of DVD. It'll be on the scale of DVD-audio. (ooh burn) Most people just got settled into DVD, an industry overhaul isn't gonna happen again so quick. The videophiles could flock to it, and that's a feather in Sony's cap, but that crowd is not gonna make up for the entire holiday season that PS3 missed.

Which leaves the games. As I stated, most every game that will hit PS3 will also hit 360, MS will have market share for a good bit in the beginning by default, Sony starts at a disadvantage in numbers and so most 3rd parties will elementarily elect to put their games on both systems to maximize profits. So you're left with exclusives, and I imagine that MS will be very likely to closely match the number of big-anticipation exclusives that Sony will be throwing out. It'll be a deadlock in terms of software libraries to make the average person go to one or the other. And MS will have a lower console price and Live's repuation to break that tie.

 

[Izzy]

The financial factor could really be where Sony gets pounded. The company is already bruised and beaten in that respect, and now they're going to be putting out not 1, but 2 pieces of hardware simultaneously that lose money on every unit made. And they'll be pushing them out at a frantic pace to combat the competition, PS3 attempting to win back what ground 360 gained on top of what it'll be selling concurrently, PSP combatting the strong holiday sales of the DS... it's really the last thing the company needs now, two money sinkholes running full steam. They're not going to have a lot of money to play around with as far as enticing 3rd parties into signing exclusives goes, and you better believe MS is going to take full advantage of that.

If you only knew...

 

[human5892]

Which leaves the games. As I stated, most every game that will hit PS3 will also hit 360, MS will have market share for a good bit in the beginning by default, Sony starts at a disadvantage in numbers and so most 3rd parties will elementarily elect to put their games on both systems to maximize profits. So you're left with exclusives, and I imagine that MS will be very likely to closely match the number of big-anticipation exclusives that Sony will be throwing out. It'll be a deadlock in terms of software libraries to make the average person go to one or the other. And MS will have a lower console price and Live's repuation to break that tie.

There are a whole lot of assumptions in that paragraph, though.

 

[Razoric]

There's a whole lot of assumptions in that paragraph, though.

Considering this forum is obsessed with trying to correlate the DC release to Xbox 360, I'd say his assumptions are fair game.

 

[Sathsquatch]

Is Izzy an "in the know" guy?

 

[Shompola]

People compare the XBox 360 to the Dreamcast because it'll have to face some of the same challenges the Dreamcast had to ...

- Being less powerful
- The subsequent Sony "wait for the real next gen system" hype that results from that
- Being a step behind format wise (no HD-DVD or Blu-Ray)
- Not being the market leader
- Some question marks with certain third parties, specifically the big Japanese ones

It's not directly comparable, but yeah there certainly are some similarities too that don't just magically disapear just because the name on the box is Microsoft.

If we ignore the formats for one second you could mistake this as snes vs genesis aswell couldnt you? yes you could. so stop posting stupid shit.

 

[bitwise]

Is Izzy an "in the know" guy?

i dont know. one of his thread sources in the past was OA though, so i'm thinking not.

 

[gofreak]

The main reason people were persuaded to wait for PS2 was DVD. Bar none. You could say the games would look better than DC and that could get some people on it's side, but stating that it would have DVD playback, when the DVD market was growing and DVD players by themselves were still expensive, was the absolute dealbreaker that got people to wait.

This was a factor, not THE factor. I heard people more often invoke PS2's power advantage than DC's lack of DVD playback. But yeah, it certainly didn't help DC at all.

On Bluray/whatever they come up with, it'll be interesting to see what impact that has on consumer attitudes. Some argue it won't help them the way DVD did, some argue it'll be the same as DVD. I'd say the truth is probably somewhere in between. It will help endorse PS3 as being more futureproof and more "cutting edge" than X360. Although the format won't be as widely established as DVD was on PS2's debut, as long as there is content there (and there should be if Sony gets their libraries out on bluray as aggressively as they claim they will) some would argue that this may in fact help PS3 even more - it may make it seem even more "new" to the customer, even better value for money that they're getting something so new in their system for < $300. It's difficult to tell how that'll play out tbh..there are good arguments on both sides.

 

[soundwave05]

If we ignore the formats for one second you could mistake this as snes vs genesis aswell couldnt you? yes you could. so stop posting stupid shit.

Sure you could. The SNES still won handily worldwide and would've won in the US by a bigger margin if Nintendo hadn't been total asshats and chose to censor Mortal Kombat when they were just starting to gain momenteum in the US. Because of that stupid mistake they had to wait until DKC to regain momenteum. We'll have to see if Sony makes those same kind of mistakes or takes MS as lightly as Nintendo took Sega.

Keep posting stupid shit, btw.

 

[Izzy]

Is Izzy an "in the know" guy?

No.

 

[human5892]

Considering this forum is obsessed with trying to correlate the DC release to Xbox 360, I'd say his assumptions are fair game.

Eh, two wrongs don't make a right (besides, I don't see many in this thread trying to promote a full-blown DC comparison). IMO it is assuming entirely too much to say that "most every game that will hit PS3 will also hit 360".

 

[gofreak]

Is Izzy an "in the know" guy?

I'm not sure if Izzy is in the know or not, but I think he was referring to Sony's aggressiveness in signing exclusives, and I wouldn't be surprised if Sony will indeed be very aggressive on that front, moreso than before. It's only one thing, but something which surprised me, and made me think about how they're working behind the scenes now, was the apparent signing of Heavenly Sword for PS3. That struck me as unusual..I was surprised that they'd be going after an exclusive from a relatively small studio like that so quickly. With the PS2 there seemed to be an initial focus on the usual suspects, the big publishers, but they may be taking a more broad approach to signing on exclusive games from a wider variety of big and small houses this time around..

Or maybe not, and maybe heavenly sword is the exception. I guess we'll have to wait and see.

 

[Razoric]

Eh, two wrongs don't make a right (besides, I don't see many in this thread trying to promote a full-blown DC comparison). IMO it is assuming entirely to much to say that "most every game that will hit PS3 will also hit 360".

Considering that's what is happening this gen, I'd say it's pretty safe to assume it will happen next gen. (minus the niche Japanese titles)

 

[Shig]

There's a whole lot of assumptions in that paragraph, though.

Not really. MS gets ports of most stuff on Xbox, with it being far, far in second place. I don't think it's nutty to think that while they have the lead in numbers, however temporarily, they'll get ports of damn near everything PS3 gets that isn't locked down. Their ability to sign a good lineup of notable exclusives is maybe a tad presumptuous, but far from unrealistic.

 

[Izzy]

i dont know. one of his thread sources in the past was OA though, so i'm thinking not.

Oh, you're referring to my OA mate, Fishie - the lad who's interviewed Miyamoto, Naka, and the others in the past.

You know, this guy.

 

[human5892]

I don't think it's nutty to think that while they have the lead in numbers, however temporarily, they'll get ports of damn near everything PS3 gets that isn't locked down.

Well, yeah.

Their ability to sign a good lineup of notable exclusives is maybe a tad presumptuous, but far from unrealistic.

Well, yeah.

But to go from those two to this:

It'll be a deadlock in terms of software libraries to make the average person go to one or the other. And MS will have a lower console price and Live's repuation to break that tie.

I mean, I know that's sort of the idea of this thread, but I have a heard time following your jumps from "MS will get any games that aren't exclusive to PS3" to "MS will sign just as many good exclusives as Sony" to "The software libraries will be in a deadlock."

Just my two cents, though. At this point all of our guesses are more or less on the same playing field, I suppose (with the exception of maybe Izzy ).

 

[soundwave05]

The multiplatform thing may help Sony more if they have the better chipset, thus getting better versions of those titles.

It helped Microsoft this past generation, but now that they don't have that advantage, you just can't sweep it under the rug.

I would suspect Sony is smart enough to offer developers incentives to take advantage of the PS3 chipset with their PS3 multiplatform titles as well (hello Madden NFL).

If both platforms have the same game, but one has the better looking version, even just slightly -- I'm buying that version. Why should I pay the same price for an inferior version?

 

[Razoric]

The multiplatform thing may help Sony more if they have the better chipset, thus getting better versions of those titles.

It helped Microsoft this past generation, but now that they don't have that advantage, you just can't sweep it under the rug.

I would suspect Sony is smart enough to offer developers incentives to take advantage of the PS3 chipset with their PS3 multiplatform titles as well (hello Madden NFL).

If both platforms have the same game, but one has the better looking version, even just slightly -- I'm buying that version. Why should I pay the same price for an inferior version?

speaking of assumptions... :lol

 

[soundwave05]

speaking of assumptions... :lol

Well using your "considering it happened this generation, it'll probably happen again" logic, sure, why not.

One of the consoles will be more powerful, and as a result certain multiplatform games will look better on it.

This has been the case for every generation since the SNES/Genesis.

 

[Razoric]

Well using your "considering it happened this generation, it'll probably happen again" logic, sure, why not.

One of the consoles will be more powerful, and as a result certain multiplatform games will look better on it.

This has been the case for every generation since the SNES/Genesis.

- You're assuming that the PS3 will be more powerful than Xbox 360 in every respect. Unless you can look into the future or you are "on the inside" in both camps I don't see how you can make such a statement yet.

- Xbox ports have many advantages over PS2 ports: graphics, good online (xbox live, headphone use for all games, DLC), perks like custom soundtracks, etc. You are assuming this will be the same next-gen, yet flipped... that if Sony has the most powerful console they will also have all the great bells and whistles. Simply no reason to believe that yet.

 

[Fafalada]

256MB RAM + 64-128MB non unified VRAM is an advantage.

With a 256MB OS...

 

[Baron Aloha]

Guys, don't fool yourselves into thinking that the slate magically gets wiped clean when the new systems come out. People aren't as stupid or forgetful as you might think (or hope).

Look at the numbers from last generation and compare them to today. Sony's market share has actually gone up! All of MS' gains this gen have come at Nintendo's expense and I'd wager that a large part of that can be attributed to them having the most powerful hardware this time. Many of the N64 adopters bought an N64 because it was 64-bit/more powerful. Those same people bought the Xbox for the same reason.

When you look at the software sales this becomes even more apparent. Western developed games did great on the N64 but they sell like crap on the Cube. Where did Nintendo's western audience (i.e. an audience generally perceived as placing more emphasis on system power) go? They obviously went to MS's camp this gen.

My point is that not having the power advantage is going to hurt MS next generation. In many ways, MS has no one but themselves to blame when they lose that segment of the market. They've been hyping up system power for over 4 years now and a large portion of their fanbase has come to expect certain things from them. When they fail to deliver on that "promise" next time it will come back to bite them in the ass.

And don't fool yourselves into thinking that the difference between the PS3 and Xbox 360 won't be noticable. I've spoken to a couple people who have been working together as part of a team on the development of a next gen RPG for the Xbox 360 (an upgraded version for the PS3 is under serious consideration at the moment) who flat out told me it will be apparent from the get-go that the PS3 is more powerful.

And lets not forget how many times MS had to slash Xbox prices all over the world to spur sales. They won't be so eager to do that next time around because this next gen is about them recouping the losses they incurred on the original Xbox. That's another advantage that they had going for them this generation that they will lose next gen.

Nintendo fans may be in denial but some of you guys are downright delusional. Lets see the PS3 is going to be more popular, have more games, and be more powerful and MS is going to somehow manage to get a 50-50 split next gen? Boy-oh-boy.....the walls are gonna come crashing down for some of you when the PS3 hits.

Xbox 360 will earn 30% marketshare, at best, next gen. Book it.

 

[soundwave05]

MS' getting a 30% marketshare next time out would actually be pretty good for them.

That's about double the marketshare the XBox is on pace to end up with this generation, give or take.

 

[Baron Aloha]

MS' getting a 30% marketshare next time out would actually be pretty good for them.

That's about double the marketshare the XBox is on pace to end up with this generation, give or take.

Like I said... "at best". Realistically I think it will be 20-25% and that's if the Japanese market keeps shrinking. If it manages to rebound it will be even less.

 

[gofreak]

With a 256MB OS...

So 256MB it is?

And yeah, I can imagine the OSes being rather hungry on all the next-gen systems :/

 

[Agent Icebeezy]

I remember signing up here, thinking that people would, for the most part, be unbiased. I was dead, dead wrong. We have way more armchair analysts, basing predictions on stupid shit. Then the almighty 'I know someone' that comes forth every so often. Maybe you do, maybe you don't. I'm willing to wager that at least half of you don't though. Just like when the PSP was going to destory the DS, that was the GAF confirmation. Now? You can walk into any store and get one if you'd like. Some of you aren't as smart as you think you are, let MS and Sony decide this, you don't factor into the equation.

 

[soundwave05]

Like I said... "at best". Realistically I think it will be 20-25% and that's if the Japanese market keeps shrinking. If it manages to rebound it will be even less.

Definitely. I agree with your points.

 

[PhatSaqs]

If PS3 easily spanks X360 from the jump it would indeed be a rough ride for MS IMO.

 

[MightyHedgehog]

Book it.

Booked.

 

[Flo_Evans]

Some of you aren't as smart as you think you are, let MS and Sony decide this, you don't factor into the equation.

We don't factor into the equation? wtf we BUY these systems. WE will deciede who wins the next gen race. Let MS and Sony deciede this? I can really seem them having a summit and sony going "ok you can have 40% this gen" WTF. :lol

 

[soundwave05]

If PS3 easily spanks X360 from the jump it would indeed be a rough ride for MS IMO.

In terms of performance, that could very well be the case.

XBox 360 isn't a bad piece of kit. Sony just is overdelivering with the PS3 (like they did with the PSP ... I don't think anyone expected that kind of power out of a handheld).

Fact is, the Playstation 3 faltering is simply not an option for Sony. Their other divisions are struggling badly except for the movie division, and the movie business can be up and down from one year to the next depending on what movies/scripts you have on your plate.

If PS3 sputters ... I don't think its really an exagerration to say it would be a huge blow to Sony. There is no product at Sony in development right now which is more important to their future.

 

[sonycowboy]

Quick Question:

Did anybody ever add any solid advantages for either side besides what I have listed below? I know that some are definitely speculative, although they are extensions of this generation. But, does anybody else have a good argument to make for any additions?

[b]PS3                                         Xbox360[/b]
Likely Most Powerful                        Year Head Start
Blu-Ray                                     ATI Delivers (Traditionally)
Backwards Compatible                        Xbox Live
Mindshare                                   Ease of Development (XNA)
GTA/Final Fantasy/MGS likely?               Tons of Money
First Party                                 First Party
Japanese Support                            PC Developer Support
Better PC Developer Support than this gen   Better Japanese Support than this gen
Incredible Momentum from this gen           Some Momentum from this gen
Can Change Specs based on Xbox360

 

[Baron Aloha]

Quick Question:

Did anybody ever add any solid advantages for either side besides what I have listed below? I know that some are definitely speculative, although they are extensions of this generation. But, does anybody else have a good argument to make for any additions?

I think that a list of new disadvantages or advantages that they had this gen and lost would be equally important/useful.

 

[Shig]

I mean, I know that's sort of the idea of this thread, but I have a heard time following your jumps from "MS will get any games that aren't exclusive to PS3" to "MS will sign just as many good exclusives as Sony" to "The software libraries will be in a deadlock."

What I mean there is that their libraries will be evenly matched. It's not gonna be like this gen where PS2 has a huge lead and so companies can just opt to not bother porting to Xbox if they feel like it, if they elect not to port early games to 360, they're forsaking a huge percentage of the next-gen market. As far as exclusives, for pretty much every big anticipated title on PS3, I think there will more often than not be an opposing one on 360 to counter. Their shelf space will be about the same, the number of worthwhile titles on each system will be very similar. That's what I mean by saying their libraries will be deadlocked.

 

[sonycowboy]

I think that a list of new disadvantages or advantages that they had this gen and lost would be equally important/useful.

I thought about including disadvantages, but more often than not, they are flip sides to another one's advantage. Also, that tends to be a much more negative conversation. I just wanted to see why some people are so sold on their particular system winning the next generation as opposed to focusing on why they hate the other system.

 

[sonycowboy]

What I mean there is that their libraries will be evenly matched. It's not gonna be like this gen where PS2 has a huge lead and so companies can just opt to not bother porting to Xbox if they feel like it, if they elect not to port early games to 360, they're forsaking a huge percentage of the next-gen market. As far as exclusives, for pretty much every big anticipated title on PS3, I think there will more often than not be an opposing one on 360 to counter. Their shelf space will be about the same, the number of worthwhile titles on each system will be very similar. That's what I mean by saying their libraries will be deadlocked.

There is absolutely no reason to believe that the libraries will be "evenly matched". We don't know who has what at this point.

Shig, every single argument I've seen from you seems to be exactly what I was referring to in my first post. They all revolve around why Microsoft is going to succeed, ignoring the existing realities or alternate possibilities. You give them absolutely every benefit of the doubt and give none to Sony.

Now, that's perfectly fine to do from a discussion standpoint, but IMO, it does nothing to make your arguments have any weight whatsoever. They're simply fantasies.

 

[Shig]

There is absolutely no reason to believe that the libraries will be "evenly matched". We don't know who has what at this point.

Shig, every single argument I've seen from you seems to be exactly what I was referring to in my first post. They all revolve around why Microsoft is going to succeed, ignoring the existing realities or alternate possibilities. You give them absolutely every benefit of the doubt and give none to Sony.

Now, that's perfectly fine to do from a discussion standpoint, but IMO, it does nothing to make your arguments have any weight whatsoever. They're simply fantasies.

You think I'm a fanboy, huh? Quite to the contrary, I'm not biased, in fact I'd prefer that the better hardware is the leader. I hate when companies cater to the lowest common denominator, which will be MS (though 360 -> PS3 ports probably wouldn't be nearly as bad as PS2 -> Xbox ones).

Yeah, I'm a little overly dismissive of PS3's advantages, true. But not nearly to the degree that those who champion them overestimate their importance, IMO.

If you think that my predictions are way off, though... I dunno, whatever, they could be. But I state them because I honestly think that's how things could shake out, not because I'm hugely biased. You want biased, it's these people that say 360 is relatable to DC, that holiday launches don't help (newsflash: DS had a great launch and PSP had a disappointing one), that a huge company like MS's moves during a 6 month headstart are going to be able to be brushed off like nothing by the PS3 the very second it hits the market. THAT's fantasy, my friend.

 

[Axsider]

Sony's gotta get a great FPS exclusive to their to the PS3

Oh yes, they will.... Not only Killzone 3

 

[gofreak]

that holiday launches don't help (newsflash: DS had a great launch and PSP had a disappointing one)

I agree that holiday launches help - but just to pick up on the point re. DC and PSP, DC took over two weeks to sell what PSP sold in two days. Is 500k units in 2 days disappointing? It's all relative to the goals you set yourself, so from that point of view you could say it was disappointing for SCEA (who probably hoped to move 1m very quickly). But in absolute numbers, the PSP launch was a better one than DC's, and thus compared to it can't be considered disappointing.

 

[element]

likely to have inferior hardware

i really wouldn't use the term 'inferior'. It isn't like MS is sending out a 386 in Xenon.

Some question marks with certain third parties, specifically the big Japanese ones

Who?
Sega - signed on
Capcom - signed on
Ubisoft - signed on
EA - signed on
Konami - signed on
Activision - signed on
Atari - signed on
THQ - signed on
Midway - signed on
Take 2 - signed on

who is left really? SquareEnix?

 

[Funky Papa]

I can only begin to understand the utter madness that E3 is going to be.

May God have mercy on GAF.

 

[gofreak]

Who?
Sega - signed on
Capcom - signed on
Ubisoft - signed on
EA - signed on
Konami - signed on
Activision - signed on
Atari - signed on
THQ - signed on
Midway - signed on
Take 2 - signed on

who is left really? SquareEnix?

The question marks may relate less to who are licensees and more to the strength of their commitment. I think it's fair to say there are question marks there with the big japanese third party publishers after their "support" of xbox. I'm hoping those question marks will disappear at E3