Support NeoGAF

[NickFire]

Are you seriously comparing a Zune to an XB1? PS4 is only slightly ahead in the US (worldwide is a different story), whereas the iPod was crushing (huehue) the Zune.

Not a serious comparison. Merely pointing out that price does not equate to value. Now, do you really believe that people are crazy if they doubt that yet one more price cut will kill the momentum of the PS4 going into the holidays? Isn't that theory getting old?

 

[Einbroch]

Hardly. I think most people expect MS to win. They are effectively buying the month. They are giving away all margin just to make a PR statement. They will win, maybe by 200k, which is not much for such a big month. The real interesting part is what happens in Jan? Will the price be $399 and return to anemic sales? Will they just take a loss going forward on all hardware to sustain competitive sales?

After Halo and and a price drop, they have nothing. They showed their cards, is it enough for 2015? And no Halo 5 isn't going to sell more consoles, all those halo fans have a XB1 now.

I'm not arguing for January. I'm not arguing for the lifetime. I'm not arguing anything but November. I think people are reading into what I said and saying that this is going to turn around MS and they're suddenly going to win. I'm not saying that, at all.

I don't really care who wins, though. It's one month and one company is going very all-in on the season. It's interesting and I want to see how it'll end up. I think MS is going to win November quite handily. 1.5:1, maybe 2:1, but I wouldn't put money on the latter.

That's all.

Edit: Maybe I went a little far with "crush" and calling people crazy. I need to learn to relax a bit when jumping into debates.

 

[BadWolf]

Hardly. I think most people expect MS to win. They are effectively buying the month. They are giving away all margin just to make a PR statement. They will win, maybe by 200k, which is not much for such a big month. The real interesting part is what happens in Jan? Will the price be $399 and return to anemic sales? Will they just take a loss going forward on all hardware to sustain competitive sales?

After Halo and and a price drop, they have nothing. They showed their cards, is it enough for 2015? And no Halo 5 isn't going to sell more consoles, all those halo fans have a XB1 now.

Yeah, it's not so much MS winning that is a problem, it is them losing.

It means very little to the PS4 to lost Nov/Dec in the US but for the X1 it feels like MS is betting everything, even an actual first year price cut (instead of just that unbundling of Kinect to drop price). If the X1 still loses then then isn't much else left for MS to try.

 

[Shig]

Walmart is even doing a freakin' rain check on the XB1 and not the PS4, I believe. It's guaranteed at that price with those games as long as you simply show up.

Yeah, that's definitely a wild card. Pretty much all the units sold through that 1-Hour Guarantee won't actually be shipped and claimed until December, but you're required to put the full price down to get it, so I guess technically it's a full sale.

That means MS will be able to claim more sales from BF than they actually have units available, which kinda feels like cheating!

 

[Poeton]

I don't see a system being outsold for every month of the year and then suddenly beating the top selling console by that margin in the holidays.

You guys are crazy.

I agree, two words you are going to hear a lot during November NPD is, statistical tie. Which is still a loss for MS considering how much they've discounted the thing.

 

[Crimson_Fate]

Are you seriously comparing a Zune to an XB1? PS4 is only slightly ahead in the US (worldwide is a different story), whereas the iPod was crushing (huehue) the Zune.

Actually I think he's being generous in the comparison since in the end the music is identical. ( in that comparison I'd take the Zune )

If you look at the Value/Performance of the hardware between the XB1 & PS4 the XB1 would need to be priced about $240-$280 to match the gaming potential of the PS4 and that's assuming that you are willing to live with inferior third party visuals for the life of the console.

The only way I see Sony loosing November is if people are waiting for a better deal on the PS4. I do not see the Price of the XB1 flipping anyone, it will just hasten the purchase for those who have already decided to go in that direction.

 

[Amentallica]

I don't think Xbox One is going to be sold out this Black Friday.

 

[Toki767]

I don't think Xbox One is going to be sold out this Black Friday.

Me either. It'll sell well, but the amount of stock on shelves this holiday have to be pretty crazy.

 

[Einbroch]

Actually I think he's being generous in the comparison since in the end the music is identical. ( in that comparison I'd take the Zune )

If you look at the Value/Performance of the hardware between the XB1 & PS4 the XB1 would need to be priced about $240-$280 to match the gaming potential of the PS4 and that's assuming that you are willing to live with inferior third party visuals for the life of the console.

The only way I see Sony loosing November is if people are waiting for a better deal on the PS4. I do not see the Price of the XB1 flipping anyone, it will just hasten the purchase for those who have already decided to go in that direction.

That's what I'm saying. I'm only saying that XB1's numbers for November will be higher than the PS4's, and I think it will be substantial. It's going to be a big PR month for Microsoft. Think about the headlines. No more "PS4 sells more for Z months in a row". Microsoft can start pushing out numbers which they've been coy about. It's big for the company, but that doesn't mean that it'll lead to them "winning" or "gaining ground" after the holidays.

Btw, Zune > iPod, even at the same price. I miss my Zune.

 

[AgentP]

I don't really care who wins, though. It's one month and one company is going very all-in on the season. It's interesting and I want to see how it'll end up. I think MS is going to win November quite handily. 1.5:1, maybe 2:1, but I wouldn't put money on the latter.
.

I don't think that is possible. They can only make and ship a finite number of units and it has been reported that Sony has more in NA to sell. I think the first bump in sales from the $349 price (ongoing) is worth a few hundred thousand at best (one slow months worth). Then at BF they are both going to sell every unit they ship and if Sony ships more they will sell more. The XB1 could drop to $1 for a day and it won't help them if they are OOS.

That bump from the 4349 is already wearing off. Amazon went from three SKU in the top 10 to one in the top 20. The people waiting for the MCC who finally bit on the price drop are only so many gamers, its not an infinite supply.

 

[Einbroch]

I don't think that is possible. They can only make and ship a finite number of units and it has been reported that Sony has more in NA to sell. I think the first bump in sales from the $349 price (ongoing) is worth a few hundred thousand at best (one slow months worth). Then at BF they are both going to sell every unit they ship and if Sony ships more they will sell more. The XB1 could drop to $1 for a day and it won't help them if they are OOS.

That bump from the 4349 is already wearing off. Amazon went from three SKU in the top 10 to one in the top 20. The people waiting for the MCC who finally bit on the price drop are only so many gamers, its not an infinite supply.

Walmart, the largest retailer in the US (and absolutely insane on BF), is offering rainchecks on the XB1 if you simply show up. Since you are required to pay up-front for the item, Microsoft would likely count these as sales.

We can agree to disagree, though.

 

[Chinner]

I don't follow specific numbers that closely around the holiday, but yeah, that ratio or something similar.

I agree that supply is going to be an issue, but with Microsoft going so hard with these deals I see them producing more. They want units out there, and they want them out there bad. Walmart is even doing a freakin' rain check on the XB1 and not the PS4, I believe. It's guaranteed at that price with those games as long as you simply show up.

I agree. November is such a strong month for Xbox One, I can imagine quite a few PS4s would be returned in favor for Xbox Ones; increasing XB1s market share and decreasing the PS4s.

I would go as far as suggesting XB1 will sell a million units in November, and PS4 around the 444k mark.

 

[Rand6]

Walmart, the largest retailer in the US (and absolutely insane on BF), is offering rainchecks on the XB1 if you simply show up.

I think it's only during the first hour. But yes, Xbox One will win November.

 

[Wynnebeck]

I agree. November is such a strong month for Xbox One, I can imagine quite a few PS4s would be returned in favor for Xbox Ones; increasing XB1s market share and decreasing the PS4s.

I would go as far as suggesting XB1 will sell a million units in November, and PS4 around the 444k mark.

#444k4ThePlayers

 

[Cyborg]

MS has better deals....Kind of disappointed Sony doesn't match it. They could do a temporary price drop.

 

[A_Gorilla]

I agree. November is such a strong month for Xbox One, I can imagine quite a few PS4s would be returned in favor for Xbox Ones; increasing XB1s market share and decreasing the PS4s.

I would go as far as suggesting XB1 will sell a million units in November, and PS4 around the 444k mark.

I see what you did there.

 

[Cyborg]

#444k4ThePlayers

Am I missing the joke :$

 

[sense]

MS has better deals....Kind of disappointed Sony doesn't match it. They could do a temporary price drop.

why should they when they can make a bigger deal out of a 100$ price drop next year?

 

[BadWolf]

MS has better deals....Kind of disappointed Sony doesn't match it. They could do a temporary price drop.

Sony is winning. MS is desperate.

 

[Neuromancer]

MS has better deals....Kind of disappointed Sony doesn't match it. They could do a temporary price drop.

And literally lose money for no reason? They don't need to.

 

[Cyborg]

And literally lose money for no reason? They don't need to.

They dont need to but could do it, to keep the momentum up

Sony is winning. MS is desperate.

True, cant argue with that. But still the MS deals are better

why should they when they can make a bigger deal out of a 100$ price drop next year?

Why? To keep their marketshare and maybe expand it.

 

[serversurfer]

Are people saying that PS4 will win November in the US? Not a troll question, honestly asking, because I think those people are crazy.

XB1 is going to crush the PS4, in the US, in November. I mean, when you slash the price by $50 (or even $70), throw in brand new, wanted games, you're going to win. They'll both sell gangbusters, but come on.

So, since that's precisely what Sony are doing with the GTA and LBP bundles, you predict they're going to crush MS this month?

Let's look back at September. $400 would get you a Bone, Madden, and Destiny, and they still got doubled up by the $400 PS4 with no games. Actually, the $450 Destiny bundle singlehandedly outsold the entire XBone family.

So in November, MS are still giving you two games, but have lopped $70 off the price. Sony have taken $50 off of their units, and tossed an extra game in to the bundle, and they now have a family-friendly bundle as well. So compared to September, $70 vs. $50+game+families, effectively. That's gonna cause a shift from 1:2 sales to 2:1 sales? Srsly?

Yeah, it's not so much MS winning that is a problem, it is them losing.

The real problem is, even if MS win, they lose. Spending millions of dollars to eke out one victory a year in a single market isn't a sustainable business model, and won't attract much interest from publishers, especially non-US publishers.

 

[On Demand]

All these surefire claims of a XB1 victory reminds me of Titanfall month......and $399 price drop month......and Madden bundle month. So many anecdotal reports from stores and what's been heard about sales.

Why? To keep their marketshare and maybe expand it.

But there's no point in doing it now when PS4 is seliing so well. A price drop in 2015 or 16 will have more of an impact. MS going trough everything they've got only a year into the gen is not good imo. Don't you see the advantage Sony has?

 

[Einbroch]

So, since that's precisely what Sony are doing with the GTA and LBP bundles, you predict they're going to crush MS this month?

Let's look back at September. $400 would get you a Bone, Madden, and Destiny, and they still got doubled up by the $400 PS4 with no games. Actually, the $450 Destiny bundle singlehandedly outsold the entire XBone family.

So in November, MS are still giving you two games, but have lopped $70 off the price. Sony have taken $50 off of their units, and tossed an extra game in to the bundle, and they now have a family-friendly bundle as well. So compared to September, $70 vs. $50+game+families, effectively. That's gonna cause a shift from 1:2 sales to 2:1 sales? Srsly?

Was PS4 selling 2:1 in the US against the XB1?

 

[Toki767]

Was PS4 selling 2:1 in the US against the XB1?

Anywhere from 1.5:1 to 2:1 since January.

 

[Einbroch]

Anywhere from 1.5:1 to 2:1 since January.

In the US alone?

Well, damn. I assumed it was only like a 30% lead in the US. Obviously more in the world, but I thought US was still somewhat close, just looking at shipped numbers. I mean, PS4 has shipped ~13 mil and XB1 ~10 mil, so an actual 2:1 lead seems very surprising to me.

 

[Kazuma Kiryu]

In the US alone?

Well, damn. I assumed it was only like a 30% lead in the US. Obviously more in the world, but I thought US was still somewhat close, just looking at shipped numbers. I mean, PS4 has shipped ~13 mil and XB1 ~10 mil, so an actual 2:1 lead seems very surprising to me.

The 1M (right now probably 1.1M) lead in the US couldn't happen in a month or two.

 

[hawk2025]

http://www.amazon.com/best-sellers-...pf_rd_t=101&pf_rd_p=1937574562&pf_rd_i=468642


Xbox One has started to drop and PS4 is climbing again without any bundles counting.

I still think the Xbox One will take November, but maybe it won't be by too comfy of a margin. It's all about the availability of that bundle now, I think.


Really weird to see the MCC already dropping and with such low reviews. A bad launch is a dangerous thing.

 

[Cyborg]

All these surefire claims of a XB1 victory reminds me of Titanfall month......and $399 price drop month......and Madden bundle month. So many anecdotal reports from stores and what's been heard about sales.




But there's no point in doing it now when PS4 is seliing so well. A price drop in 2015 or 16 will have more of an impact. MS going trough everything they've got only a year into the gen is not good imo. Don't you see the advantage Sony has?

I see the advantage only saying the bundles are disappointing in my opinion.

 

[ThoughtsOfSpeaking]

I don't follow specific numbers that closely around the holiday, but yeah, that ratio or something similar.

I agree that supply is going to be an issue, but with Microsoft going so hard with these deals I see them producing more. They want units out there, and they want them out there bad. Walmart is even doing a freakin' rain check on the XB1 and not the PS4, I believe. It's guaranteed at that price with those games as long as you simply show up.

Absolutely no chance. 200k more would be a victory, but a 1.5.1 ratio? Good luck with that.

 

[Chobel]

In the US alone?

Well, damn. I assumed it was only like a 30% lead in the US. Obviously more in the world, but I thought US was still somewhat close, just looking at shipped numbers. I mean, PS4 has shipped ~13 mil and XB1 ~10 mil, so an actual 2:1 lead seems very surprising to me.

You're comparing two different periods though, XB1 had yet to ship 10 mil, but it will ship that number "shortly".
PS4 has shipped ~13.5 mil in September 30th, around that time XB1 shipped ~7.5 mil.

 

[spwolf]

I don't see a system being outsold for every month of the year and then suddenly beating the top selling console by that margin in the holidays.

You guys are crazy.

some people here have been expecting MS to win for past 3 months at least.

 

[serversurfer]

In the US alone?

Well, damn. I assumed it was only like a 30% lead in the US. Obviously more in the world, but I thought US was still somewhat close, just looking at shipped numbers. I mean, PS4 has shipped ~13 mil and XB1 ~10 mil, so an actual 2:1 lead seems very surprising to me.

In September in the US, MS sold 284k Bones, total. Sony sold 538k PS4s, including ~300k Destiny bundles, giving an overall ratio of 1.9:1.

Also, you're kinda misreading the shipping announcements. MS are "approaching" 10M shipped, likely meaning that's what they hope to ship by the end of the year. Sony had already shipped 13.5M by the end of September, and are likely "approaching" 20M shipped for year-end.

 

[Einbroch]

You're comparing two different periods though, XB1 had yet to ship 10 mil, but it will ship that number "shortly".
PS4 has shipped ~13.5 mil in 30 September, around that time XB1 shipped ~7.5 mil.

Oh, wow. I think I just saw a bumped thread next to another, read them, and assumed they were from the same time.

Well, that changes things a bit, eh?

 

[Zoned]

Gimme DAT 30$ PS+ deal. Come on Sony

 

[John Bender]

So Amazon has these official Black Friday bundles, too?
Thought it's retail only (no online shops).

PS4 + GTAV + TLOU

PS4 + LittleBigPlanet 3 + Lego Batman 3

 

[Freedom = $1.05]

Gimme DAT 30$ PS+ deal. Come on Sony

sony has no incentive to discount it this year. If it's discounted by anyone, it'll be a retailer looking for more traffic. And seeing as no major retailer has announced a sale, it might not happen.

 

[Boke1879]

They dont need to but could do it, to keep the momentum up



True, cant argue with that. But still the MS deals are better



Why? To keep their marketshare and maybe expand it.

I highly doubt Sony cares about losing to MS one month out of the year. PS4 will sell regardless this holiday season. Even more so during Black Friday.

I think people have this perception that the XB1 is going to outsell the PS4 by a million units this month. I HIGHLY doubt that. If MS does win they win by 100-200k at most.

 

[ShadowSoldier89]

So Amazon has these official Black Friday bundles, too?
Thought it's retail only (no online shops).

PS4 + GTAV + TLOU

PS4 + LittleBigPlanet 3 + Lego Batman 3

thanks for posting this, I just signed up for email notifications

Hopefully this will be the true 399 bundle and not just extras going for 449 after the fact

 

[cakely]

So Amazon has these official Black Friday bundles, too?
Thought it's retail only (no online shops).

PS4 + GTAV + TLOU

PS4 + LittleBigPlanet 3 + Lego Batman 3

I noticed those earlier.

Interesting wording there ..." Grand Theft Auto V and a The Last of Us: Remastered download voucher". I wonder if that means that GTA V is a physical disc?

That would be quite nice. Downloading a 50gb game would be a drag.

 

[FalsettoVibe]

So Amazon has these official Black Friday bundles, too?
Thought it's retail only (no online shops).

PS4 + GTAV + TLOU

PS4 + LittleBigPlanet 3 + Lego Batman 3

These things will sell gangbusters.

 

[Loudninja]

I noticed those earlier.

Interesting wording there ..." Grand Theft Auto V and a The Last of Us: Remastered download voucher". I wonder if that means that GTA V is a physical disc?

That would be quite nice. Downloading a 50gb game would be a drag.

It is you can pretty much tell from the PS blog picture.

 

[Boke1879]

I noticed those earlier.

Interesting wording there ..." Grand Theft Auto V and a The Last of Us: Remastered download voucher". I wonder if that means that GTA V is a physical disc?

That would be quite nice. Downloading a 50gb game would be a drag.

GTAV is physical i believe otherwise they would have stated as such.

 

[serversurfer]

Oh, wow. I think I just saw a bumped thread next to another, read them, and assumed they were from the same time.

Well, that changes things a bit, eh?

MS made their announcement shortly after Sony, which is why MS announcements typically warrant additional scrutiny.

 

[mrklaw]

In the US alone?

Well, damn. I assumed it was only like a 30% lead in the US. Obviously more in the world, but I thought US was still somewhat close, just looking at shipped numbers. I mean, PS4 has shipped ~13 mil and XB1 ~10 mil, so an actual 2:1 lead seems very surprising to me.

The relatively close LTD is because of the strong initial launch months for XB1. After that it dropped off a cliff.

 

[Freedom = $1.05]

having just downloaded TLOU PS4 myself not even a week ago, the most aggravating thing coming from someone who had already finished the main game on the PS4 is that the initial download is just enough to get you started on the campaign. It was a real bummer as i was looking to try out the DLC and play the MP, but those 2 things you'll need to open the game and leave it running for it to finish downloading. It was kind of annoying.

 

[mrklaw]

GTAV is physical i believe otherwise they would have stated as such.

Looking at the packaging for both, it looks like the third party game is physical (GTAV, Lego Batman) and the first party title is digital (TLoU, LBP3)

 

[John Bender]

Hopefully this will be the true 399 bundle and not just extras going for 449 after the fact

It is the official $399 bundle.
You can see that on the "blablah value" sticker.

Interesting wording there ..." Grand Theft Auto V and a The Last of Us: Remastered download voucher". I wonder if that means that GTA V is a physical disc?

Yup! GTAV is a physical disc.

 

[Zoned]

sony has no incentive to discount it this year. If it's discounted by anyone, it'll be a retailer looking for more traffic. And seeing as no major retailer has announced a sale, it might not happen.

Yeah this makes sense. I should have bought more last year, I guess.

 

[serversurfer]

having just downloaded TLOU PS4 myself not even a week ago, the most aggravating thing coming from someone who had already finished the main game on the PS4 is that the initial download is just enough to get you started on the campaign. It was a real bummer as i was looking to try out the DLC and play the MP, but those 2 things you'll need to open the game and leave it running for it to finish downloading. It was kind of annoying.

Some games will let you choose whether to download the single-player or mutli-player portion first. Is TLoU not one of them?

That said, you could be grateful you got to play it at all before it had finished downloading, ya know. <3