I'm not estimating anything since i'm shit at it. You just made me remember the concern for GoW sales when we saw Japan numbers
"Returnal, which launched for PlayStation 5 on April 30, did not chart in the top 10, meaning it opened at somewhere less than 29,549 copies"
Famitsu has published its estimated physical game software and hardware sales data for Japan for the two weeks spanning April 26, 2021 to May 9, 2021.
www.gematsu.com
That was japan numbers, on the opening week. This was just physical sales though. Expect the digital sales to be high on japan.
The one notable thing about returnal, is the high rise after the launch week. The game performed strong after its weeks debuts. At that time, the ps5 was selling more. More ps5 hardware let the game to have a rising sales.
The low ps5 hardware, was the reason why the game didnt sell high. That is what happens to next games, when they are released for next gen hardware's. You need around 20m to hit 1m-5m copies.
Best example is spiderman 2018.
2018's Marvel's Spider-Man was the fastest-selling superhero game in US history, the biggest PlayStation exclusive launch ever, and it drove a 65% increase in games profits for Sony back then. As of November 2020, it had sold
20 million units worldwide.Feb 3, 2021
Marvel's Spider-Man: Miles Morales sold 4.1 million units worldwide in a month and a half. Having launched on November …
www.gamesindustry.biz
That was on a 116m ps4 hardware's. or 1/6th of the console population. With ps5 being 9m-10m as of now, returnal estimate would be 1m-2m copies sold, Unless most of ps5 owners are fan of the game.