The difference here is the world generally agrees that North Korea has nuclear weapons.
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Reuters: Entire Senate to Attend Briefing on North Korea at White House
- Thread starter legacyzero
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The difference here is the world generally agrees that North Korea has nuclear weapons.
I have to imagine even Trump knows what could happen considering how Bush's reputation tanked, so I imagine he wants to be able to blame Congress if things go awry. I don't see them taking the bait this close to the Iraq war though.
Tatsumaki Senpuukyaku!
Member
What if this is like some Game of Thrones shit and he's inviting the senate so they will all be in one place and he's going to slaughter them all and declare himself emperor.
He is playing 1D poker and trying to prep his shitty cards:
"The dem infested deep state IC is unpatriotic and trying to sabotage this war. NK nuke imminent!"
"the fake news are trying to derail our greatest win"
He is still trying to create a counter-weight to critical media + IC with the frenetic base he is breeding. His end game is probably "do you want a civil war, then go ahead and arrest me".
And yes it is 1D.
The ugly part in all of this is that this is still a pure win for Putin's Russia. An extremely divided nation torn apart at the exploited fault lines is precisely what is written in their geopolitical playbook.
It's possible Trump doesn't give a hoot about Bush's approval numbers. Part of me thinks he wants this to be his legacy.
If he can get the approval to launch an attack with the intent of toppling the regime and pulls it off, with a low civilian death toll AND the unification of Korea...holy shit. I know that's really far out thinking and likely not going to happen but this is the closest I can think of in my lifetime to the NK situation actually being dealt with and all kinds of shit is running through my head :/
The thought of Trump being elevated to the status that he would have if that all happened is just nuts. It would be Ronald Reagan X1000.
I'm also kind of high.
If he can get the approval to launch an attack with the intent of toppling the regime and pulls it off, with a low civilian death toll AND the unification of Korea...holy shit. I know that's really far out thinking and likely not going to happen but this is the closest I can think of in my lifetime to the NK situation actually being dealt with and all kinds of shit is running through my head :/
The thought of Trump being elevated to the status that he would have if that all happened is just nuts. It would be Ronald Reagan X1000.
I'm also kind of high.
You know even in Iraq with its liberation built on lies it looked quite good for a while. All those aces of the regime getting killed off, the statue of Saddam on the big square being toppled and now look at the middle east.
EVEN IF Trump would manage to decapacite the regime in a way that the death toll is basically a bunch of regime buildings, then what? South Korea takes over?
It could very well be that in 10 years time you would look at a new Korean demilitarized zone but this time it is China on one side and SK on the other.
Or imagine them doing one last final stealth mission where they use something else than a missile as a delivery system? And/or we get a radioactive contaminated Korean peninsula?
Regime change from the outside rarely if ever works, especially with all those parties and their divergent geopolitical interests. In a perverted way the region has had relative stability over the last 50 years. This is a "mission accomplished" aka hard blow back lesson in the making again.
The second North Korea is attacked Soeul is gone. Not even factoring in the US military loves that will be lost, under no circumstances will be be able to pull anything off.
Even Putin doesn't want Korean War redux. That's all on Trump.
He wants an enemy to target I guess. He doesn't want to be the source of all the blame if things go wrong though.
That's ok, Trump will cut it off for you if you don't.
Megalosaro
Banned
Lol.
All I can do is lol. GG guys.
All I can do is lol. GG guys.
I know that line is said often but considering how dated their technology is, and things like failed missile launches...Is it possible that maybe that particular assessment is one that has been weakened over the decades?
I'm not going to pretend to know the ins and outs of war and weaponry, but whenever I see video or pictures of NK's arsenal it looks busted as fuck...their war rooms look like something out of the 70s...something just seems really off.
I mean we can't just overwhelm them before they have a chance to retaliate in any kind of meaningful way?
RPGCrazied
Member
I hope he is doing this because he is resigning and wants everyone to be around when he walks. Let me dream.
They have over 5 million soldiers. We'd win but it would be an ugly victory.
North Korean military gear is old-fashioned; they haven't had any significant modernization since about the '60s. However, old weapons are still quite deadly, and it's not as if modern artillery is significantly more dangerous than old artillery aside from an increase in accuracy. North Korea is fully capable of shelling Soeul and other South Korean targets and inflicting a lot of damage.
I don't think that this damage will be as devastating as it's made out to be but I don't think that anyone is interested in testing that assumption.
It's actually around a million soldiers. Even China only has 3 million soldiers and they have the largest military in the world.
If you read actual analysis on this topic you'll notice experts believe north korea would be able to fire 500k artillery rounds towards seoul within the first hour of a conflict. Even if they have old ass technology with artillery that already worked in WW1 and WW2 which can possibly be equipped with chemical rounds.
Imagine even 1% of these shells being equipped with sarin munition on a town like seoul.
Destroying all these positions before they can hit seoul is probably impossible considering some of them are also built into the mountains and reinforced with concrete which would require a lot of bunker busters.
RPGCrazied
Member
Democrats should not show up, that would be awesome. Don't give into his silly demands.
Probably. Most likely. I mean, the Capital is actually built to handle secure briefings for large numbers of people. The White House is not. So if they're actively jumping through hoops to do it, you can bet it's at least part with the intention of using it to boost Trump's ego and/or create positive PR opportunities for him.
The Emperor
Member
The time has come gaf...order 66 is about to be executed
RPGCrazied
Member
His 100 days is coming up. He is doing anything and everything to get a good report, but so far, its not looking good. The worst 100 days for any President since like the 1940's.
Alligatorjandro
Banned
I don't want nuclear war
Who was worse in the 40's? I also imagine anything he does is going to be overshadowed by a government shutdown.
Here we go.
Tillerson to chair UN meeting on North Korea
Tillerson to chair UN meeting on North Korea
Shades of Powell's UN visits ahead of the Iraq invasion, anyone?
fastford58
Member
This game is coming to an end.
I'm calling joint US/Chinese operations in NK at the next big provocation (nuke test, most likely).
US to provide air superiority, China to mop up with ground troops.
China has made great military advances and I'm sure are just itching to test operational ability against an enemy with limited modern capability. The Chinese will also get an inside look into US SOP in theatre as an intelligence gathering exercise.
I'm calling joint US/Chinese operations in NK at the next big provocation (nuke test, most likely).
US to provide air superiority, China to mop up with ground troops.
China has made great military advances and I'm sure are just itching to test operational ability against an enemy with limited modern capability. The Chinese will also get an inside look into US SOP in theatre as an intelligence gathering exercise.
I would be absolutely STUNNED if China was in any way interested in having the US do anything to assist them. At least not unless it makes China look like the superpower who saved the day in NK.
A recent report came out that China is planning on hacking South Korea's missile defense systems. No way in hell are they helping Trump, they just tell him what he wants to hear.
China is probably going to stay out of the conflict (maybe occupy the north once the US is done). Chinese east coast cities are in direct range of North Korean short/mid range missiles
BlastProcessing
Member
RATINGS BABY!
Megalosaro
Banned
I will bet my account that in a month we will be at war in NK.
China may not like North Korea all that much right now, but there's zero chance that they're going to help the US against them in any way. An American attack would ruin China's two main strategic goals in the region and it would make Xi Jinping very unhappy.
China's probably told the US where all of NK's missile silos/test areas are.
They'll stay out of it while the US bombs the hell outta them.
They'll wag their finger in public and thank in private.
Ah, interesting. Thanks.
If China assists in the attack it will be with two objectives in mind:
1) secure the nuclear weapons so they don't fall into unknown renegade hands, or the probably worse scenario (for them) of falling into South Korea's hands
2) Install a puppet government friendly to China. When NK falls, there is going to be a major humanitarian crisis anyway, but it will be worse if the peninsula unites under American sway.
So if the US makes a strike, China may have to intervene with ground troops/etc. just to prevent the above from happening.
1) secure the nuclear weapons so they don't fall into unknown renegade hands, or the probably worse scenario (for them) of falling into South Korea's hands
2) Install a puppet government friendly to China. When NK falls, there is going to be a major humanitarian crisis anyway, but it will be worse if the peninsula unites under American sway.
So if the US makes a strike, China may have to intervene with ground troops/etc. just to prevent the above from happening.
China has no interest in toppling north korea or war on their border. Any US attack would leave them with thousands, possibly millions of refugees. Despite all the talk from Trump china still sees the US as a direct opponent for influence in Asia.
Infact i see china invading the north once the US has bombed them to hell and possibly annex the north like crimea or create a rogue state like donezk.
I'm basically currently on edge waiting to see if pictures and reports of the conditions in the North Korean prison camps start popping up on the news. The photographs of Syria let Trump retaliate and get praised; if suddenly the horrible conditions in the labor camps becomes a heavily pushed news topic, it's going to seem suspiciously like setting up a situation where people will encourage an invasion to stop the atrocities. North Korea's posturing about weapons and tests and whatever are old news and won't really whip the US population into supporting an attack on them; but images of what goes on in the labor camps very well could.
The last thing that China wants is to share borders with a country that hosts American military bases. That, and taking over North Korea is way more trouble than it's worth, so they're going to be hands off. Compare that to the value of Crimea and Eastern Ukraine, and it's really hard to see why anyone would want North Korea.
South Korea is going to be the power that's most against American military intervention so that's very unlikely to happen. Besides, even if nuclear weapons fell into their hands, they'd just hand them over to the US for disposal. If South Korea had wanted nuclear weapons, they could have developed them a long time ago.
Coriolanus
Banned
ahm... you might wanna have a look at SK's largest trading partner, since that tends to influence quite a bit which country has the most sway over another.
It aint the US, btw.
Chine already has massive sway over SK, is wot im saying.
cartoon_soldier
Member
It will be used for 100-day photo op and not much more. Very clever by Trump.
Which is why they either annex it and use it as buffer land or create a buffer state that is defacto under chinese control.
The worst possible option for china is a unified korea with close ties to the US.
The ideal outcome for China would probably be a unified Korea controlled from Seoul, and for the new unified Korea to get rid of the American military bases.
As long as the military bases are gone, I don't think that China would care about close ties. Buffer states are a bit passe now, and I don't think China wants the bother of dealing with them.
Mr. Wonderful
Member
Maybe. Or the ideal outcome for China would be a Chinese-occupied North Korean state that eventually is annexed under One-China imperialism.
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