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Reuters: Entire Senate to Attend Briefing on North Korea at White House

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Basically...
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Xyrmellon

Member
If the U.S. does anything other than limited airstrikes/cruise missile strikes, China will come to NK's aid. I don't know how everyone got the impression China is our big ally in this. They want the status quo with a less crazy NK leadetship, that's it. Anything that promotes an American or SK ally state they will fight against, literally.
 
The ideal outcome for China would probably be a unified Korea controlled from Seoul, and for the new unified Korea to get rid of the American military bases.

Unlikely. Y'see, NK is very rich in minerals, and while the embargo's going, China is one of the outlets for them. Very little competition there. Unified korea means they'd lose easy access to that.

Ideal outcome for china is the status quo with kim stopping his pursuit of nukes.

Maybe. Or the ideal outcome for China would be a Chinese-occupied North Korean state that eventually is annexed under One-China imperialism.

too many refugees, but probably still better than unified korea.

Basically...
basically wrong? sure. He hiding behind more than ten million civvies, and they sure af aint moving.
 

Xando

Member
The ideal outcome for China would probably be a unified Korea controlled from Seoul, and for the new unified Korea to get rid of the American military bases.


As long as the military bases are gone, I don't think that China would care about close ties. Buffer states are a bit passe now, and I don't think China wants the bother of dealing with them.

Who says the US bases will be gone?
Leaving SK would do insane amount of damage to US influence and effectively make china the bigger player in that region.
Unlikely. Y'see, NK is very rich in minerals, and while the embargo's going, China is one of the outlets for them. Very little competition there. Unified korea means they'd lose easy access to that.

Ideal outcome for china is the status quo with kim stopping his pursuit of nukes.
Pretty much. China is all about keeping or increasing it's influence.
 
Who says the US bases will be gone?
Leaving SK would do insane amount of damage to US influence and effectively make china the bigger player in that region.

i mean, it already is... Makes sense too, wot with geography and all.

But yes, no reason to concede what the US can still hold on to.
 

Bulk_Rate

Member
The reason I'm not too concerned about this is we haven't heard about some mass evacuation or fortification of the tens of thousands of US troops stationed all over Eastern Asia and Pacific. That would be the precursor to any attack. North Korea isn't Syria, we can't just attack them with impunity with US personnel in range of their weapons.

I'm with you....my folks were there in the early 90s when things got dicey and there was definite talk of evacuating US non-combatants etc....

But who knows at this point? I am nervous.
 
Who says the US bases will be gone?
Leaving SK would do insane amount of damage to US influence and effectively make china the bigger player in that region.

With North Korea neutralized as a threat, there's no need for Korean ground bases. American commitment to withdraw from mainland Korea in exchange for China backing unified Korea is a fair deal, but the problem is North Korean elites will not go along with such deals, unification under democracy means most of them will be toast and their lives of decadence at the state's expense will be over.
 

Iolo

Member
The reason I'm not too concerned about this is we haven't heard about some mass evacuation or fortification of the tens of thousands of US troops stationed all over Eastern Asia and Pacific. That would be the precursor to any attack. North Korea isn't Syria, we can't just attack them with impunity with US personnel in range of their weapons.

Wouldn't this be an obvious signal of imminent invasion and cause North Korea to preempt? Imagine if you heard Russia had just evacuated all its cities.
 

Xando

Member
With North Korea neutralized as a threat, there's no need for Korean ground bases. American commitment to withdraw from mainland Korea in exchange for China backing unified Korea is a fair deal, but the problem is North Korean elites will not go along with such deals, unification under democracy means most of them will be toast and their lives of decadence at the state's expense will be over.
I disagree. Even with US troops gone a unified korea would leave china in a worse position than it currently is as a unified korean is a much bigger player than SK is and it would be much more likely to challenge chinese influence as it would be in a stronger position than it is now.

As i said i think china prefers either the status quo or a chinese-NK territory with a non nuclear puppet before a unified korea. I also don't think the americans would agree with such a deal as they'd lose major influence over SK.
 

Blizzard

Banned
This sounds like a red wedding setup or some sort of Star Wars scenario. Lock the doors and the Senate goes in one fell swoop.
 

4Tran

Member
Unlikely. Y'see, NK is very rich in minerals, and while the embargo's going, China is one of the outlets for them. Very little competition there. Unified korea means they'd lose easy access to that.
China seems perfectly happy buying the resources they want. It's certainly a lot less hassle than taking over North Korea and having to run the place. And it would probably take even more resources than China would gain from the region to make it as productive as they want it to be.

I disagree. Even with US troops gone a unified korea would leave china in a worse position than it currently is as a unified korean is a much bigger player than SK is and it would be much more likely to challenge chinese influence as it would be in a stronger position than it is now.
It would take many decades for South Korea to incorporate the North into a productive part of their economy. There'd be plenty of time for China to grow strong enough to not have to worry about direct regional rivals. Besides, if the American bases are removed, there's a lot less reason to be worried about security.

And realistically, this is the only long term goal that China could want out of the region. They know that the North-South divide can't last forever, and that even if it did, North Korea is too much of a loose cannon. A puppet or occupied North Korea might look nice on paper, but it would absorb a lot of Chinese resources and create all sorts of diplomatic and potentially economic headaches. Better a unified Korea under favorable terms than the uncertainty of all that.
 
US will bomb NK, and China will the chance among the chaos to support a coup that removes the Kim dinasty and put a north korean general in power who is loyal to Beijing.
 

~Kinggi~

Banned
If South Korea ends up getting destroyed because of this shit i say open season on Trump. I cant think of a more blatantly fucked individual taking all the blame any easier.
 

jstripes

Banned
I'm gonna need someone to walk me through the realities of this comic as to why China was willing to shield NK from an Obama administration but not a Trump one.

China has finally come to terms with the fact that North Korea's nuke program is a serious problem that needs to be dealt with directly, and they also know that Trump is dumb enough to go in there with guns blazing, saving them the trouble.
 

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
Maybe. Or the ideal outcome for China would be a Chinese-occupied North Korean state that eventually is annexed under One-China imperialism.

No since that would just cement the US' position in South Korea.

China would prefer an independent North Korea that it can negotiate with, but one that has reformed so as to justify a push for a US exit in the south.
 
NK's behavior is rather unprecedented. Seriously they haven't pushed like this in my lifetime. People keep saying trump is provoking them but it is the other way around. Trump has a short temper and runs his mouth whereas Obama did not. That said they didn't poke the bear near as much when Obama was president. I understand that some people think Trump is picking a fight but ISIS is much easier target to paint a we have to invade narrative on. Think what you will of Trump but NK hasn't been on his radar-ISIS and Iran where the entire campaign but NK never got the same level of attention from him. China has even stepped aside some on this issue. Truly this is unprecedented from NK.


This isn't a "screw you orange guy. Liberals wouldn't get us in this problem. Stop provoking NK" situation. This is a bipartisan issue and is not of anyone's doing but Un's.

My hope:

"A lot of you hate me and I don't respect a lot of you. NK has been making unprecedented threats. We have to stand together against them. If it gets to the point where they are going to launch an attack against us then we will strike first. I want to be clear that this is a possibility. China fully understands our position and while they do not support a strike they will not retaliate on NK's behalf."
 
NK's behavior is rather unprecedented. Seriously they haven't pushed like this in my lifetime. People keep saying trump is provoking them but it is the other way around. Trump has a short temper and runs his mouth whereas Obama did not. That said they didn't poke the bear near as much when Obama was president. I understand that some people think Trump is picking a fight but ISIS is much easier target to paint a we have to invade narrative on. Think what you will of Trump but NK hasn't been on his radar-ISIS and Iran where the entire campaign but NK never got the same level of attention from him. China has even stepped aside some on this issue. Truly this is unprecedented from NK.


This isn't a "screw you orange guy. Liberals wouldn't get us in this problem. Stop provoking NK" situation. This is a bipartisan issue and is not of anyone's doing but Un's.

My hope:

"A lot of you hate me and I don't respect a lot of you. NK has been making unprecedented threats. We have to stand together against them. If it gets to the point where they are going to launch an attack against us then we will strike first. I want to be clear that this is a possibility. China fully understands our position and while they do not support a strike they will not retaliate on NK's behalf."

How is NK's behavior unprecedented? They've been threatening the US for decades. And they've been testing nuclear weapons since GWB was president. Their behavior is nothing new.
 

Lyriell

Member
There won't be any nukes going off if they attack North Korea.

The US will take out the missle locations and target known military bunkers. They will use sheer force during the first strike to make any surviving member of Kims regime know that the only option they have is to surrender and submit to a new regime that will help rebuild.

The Chinese will say they did everything they could to advise the current regime not to end up this way and will prevent anyone from crossing their boarder. They will then too claim to the right to rebuild as they are a fellow communist country with agreements in place.

The bigger question is what happens to NK afterwards. Does China allow a unified Korea or do they have a gentlemens agreement with the US to control that land.

The only loser here is SK. But I suspect damage will be minimal because NK wont see what hits them.
 

TaterTots

Banned
He want's to attack a country with nuclear weapons?

NK doesn't have properly functioning nukes. Their missile tests fail, but they are getting close. I believe the conversation will be more along the lines of, "do we trust NK with capable nuclear missiles?

I'm speaking of ICBM's btw.
 

Abounder

Banned
I disagree. Even with US troops gone a unified korea would leave china in a worse position than it currently is as a unified korean is a much bigger player than SK is and it would be much more likely to challenge chinese influence as it would be in a stronger position than it is now.

As i said i think china prefers either the status quo or a chinese-NK territory with a non nuclear puppet before a unified korea. I also don't think the americans would agree with such a deal as they'd lose major influence over SK.

Yessir. A unified Korea would make it the next global powerhouse of the region

And agreed no way in hell would USA/SK leave their alliance, whole point is no more nukes and not to get bullied by China
 

Extollere

Sucks at poetry
Still doesn't mean anything. I'm telling you guys, nothing is going to happen.

I'm inclined to agree with you, but you still can't say that. Saying anything with utter conviction in today's political environment is foolish. Things may be more or less probable, but anything, including the use of nuclear weapons, is definitely possible.
 

Polari

Member
I'm inclined to agree with you, but you still can't say that. Saying anything with utter conviction in today's political environment is foolish. Things may be more or less probable, but anything, including the use of nuclear weapons, is definitely possible.

Highly unlikely though. Like, less than 1% if I had to put odds on it. It would be different if North Korea was more geographically and politically isolated, but with Seoul within marching distance and China determined to preserve the region's current power balance there wouldn't be any winners.
 

brian577

Banned
So wasn't a test of some kind expected today considering it's a big anniversary? Hate say it but I think Trump made NK blink.
 
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