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Russia is gearing up its support of Assad in Syria with Soldiers and Hardware
- Thread starter Gabriel_Logan
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Jaladinozozo
Banned
How is ISIS worse than Assad?
Did ISIS kill over 220,000 people yet and torture another 20-50,000 people to death?
Did ISIS kill over 220,000 people yet and torture another 20-50,000 people to death?
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Seriously. Half of the people in ISIS are only there to kill Assad to avenge their dead friends and relatives (the other half are sick people that I have no idea how governments should deal with). Supporting Assad won't fucking stop ISIS at all. Assad is one of the main causes of ISIS.
Replacing Assad won't stop them either. They'll just move to the next country.
Laevateinn
Member
First, if Assad was removed there would have been an even bigger void for ISIS to fill. Second, why is it always our job to solve the world's problems?
ISIS itself if a consequence of decades of meddling. The normal people in ISIS territories just want to live their lives, and I feel like they don't care anymore. A western backed strongman or religious kooks, they are used to being denied freedoms and living in fear. The Arab spring had the wonderful promise of liberalising the Middle east, but that didn't end up so hot.
I would love to read more middle east opinion polls, and as impossible as it sounds, polls from within the ISIS terroritories.
Jaladinozozo
Banned
People will look back at the situation in Syria with Assad the same way as Germany and Hitler expect this is worse because no one is doing anything and Assad is still alive.
I always hear how people say if they went back in time they would kill Hitler, well its 2015 and we have a dictator that's on par with Hitler (I am sure Assad would ethnically cleanse every single non-Alawite in the region that he could if he had the same resources as Germany did during WW2) and yet this scumbag is still somehow alive and breathing...
I always hear how people say if they went back in time they would kill Hitler, well its 2015 and we have a dictator that's on par with Hitler (I am sure Assad would ethnically cleanse every single non-Alawite in the region that he could if he had the same resources as Germany did during WW2) and yet this scumbag is still somehow alive and breathing...
FrenchToastDisciple
Member
nobody who is organized with guns. It's a goddamn mess beyond comprehension, and any power hubristic enough to think that they can bring peace and justice to that country through military means is foolish beyond belief.
I'm not a huge fan of Obama's foreign policy overall, but at least his administration is smart enough to know (after Libya at least) that you can only contain problems with military power. You can't eliminate them.
Worse than Assad in the sense Assad only cares about Syria. ISIS have a grander scheme in mind.
You do realise that ISIS is largely a rebrand of Al Qaeda in Iraq. It is where the nutters got started. If we had removed Assad in 2012 then ISIS would have gain more territory much quicker than they have done. They are not some magic terrorist group that popped up over night. They have been around for some time.
Indeed one of the major reasons for not bombing syria in 2012 was the huge fear that it would present fundamentalist groups with everything they needed. Put it like this, imagine AL Qaeda or ISIS with access to syrias stockpile of chemical weapons. Just look at what that prick Assad did with a couple of rockets worth. There was a lot more of it available at the time.
Jaladinozozo
Banned
What does this even mean? The only reason ISIS is there for formed to begin with is because of what the US did in Iraq and Assad went apeshit after the 2011 protests in Daraa and started killing, detaining and torturing his own citizen.
Whether the current situation could have been avoided with more or less involvement is a bit of a moot point, but right now, quite a few European countries have more than a passing interest in the Syrian civil war ending. That is not to say that sending troops would be the best solution, but the sad truth is that the country has been in a downward spiral for the better part of the past 5 years, and nothing seems to indicate that that is going to change anytime soon if things are just left alone.
Edit:
The civilisation population stuck in the middle of this mess.
Stereogatari
Banned
The initial anti-Assad protestors and any militias based off of that democratic idealogy.
Think of it like Game of Thrones on this time everyone is Joffrey and a even bigger bastards. Maybe not the kurds but even then that can be a bit of grey area.
Unfortunately those militias that initially were in it with the democratic ideology are mostly restricted to the southern front of the war, in all other rebel areas, it's Al Qaeda affiliates that are influential.
Laevateinn
Member
Too many people seem to believe all we need to do is take out a Ba'athist dictatorship and everything will be puppies and democracy. If we had taken out Assad, who do you think would have control over Syria? The scholars and moderates who made up the original anti-Assad movement or the extreme militants who come from 10 years of experience fighting Americans and the former Iraqi military? Assad being in power still is keeping ISIS from being bigger than it is. The anti-Assad people have no hope of standing against ISIS unless we go all in. All that will due is shift the problem to some other nation. It's time we step out of the middle east and let them handle their own problems.
Jaladinozozo
Banned
If you want to understand what is happening in Syria go back to 2011 and read up on articles talking about the "Daraa Protest"
Actually it won't help you understanding what is going on but this all started with antigovernment graffiti painted by a group of 15 kids who were later arrested
It is fuckin insane to think about to what has happened to Syria all because of that particular event
Actually it won't help you understanding what is going on but this all started with antigovernment graffiti painted by a group of 15 kids who were later arrested
It is fuckin insane to think about to what has happened to Syria all because of that particular event
Maninthemirror
Banned
3 kinds of groups in Syria
1. Isis
2. Rebels who want to replace Assad from power because they hate him
3. Assad military
Originally the rebels fought Assad as a part of the Arab Spring
Al Qaeda took advantage of the situation being active in Syria and started to fight Assad too
Rebels wanted to replace Assad from power
Al Qaeda wanted to put an Islamic government in power
Islamic state was an offshoot after al Qaeda wasn't doing much
Is became more powerful than al Qaeda and rebels as they were militant wise from barbaric and influential to younger men
Is because Isis with the purpose of taking over Syria and Iraq
The people that left and are trying to get into Europe.
Jaladinozozo
Banned
Whatever the result would have been, it would have been better than this. This is a worst case scenario already - millions of refugees, over a quarter of a million dead, large parts of the country in complete ruins and things are only getting worse, not better.
ISIS would possibly not even exist if not for the direct reaction by the Assad regime to the 2011 protests.
Abinash117
Member
Of course it isn't that simple, but ISIS wasn't a factor until later part of 2013. If Assad got removed earlier it would give one big reason for jihadists to not go to Syria anymore and the US supported rebels would mostly have gain power. Additionally, the Islamists would not have much power because that phase of the war would have ended sooner. The reason they have a lot of influence now is because they have the most experience, success rate and probably got aid from other countries. ISIL probably would have still emerged, but it would be easier to support the newer government. I guess that would have been the argument. Although no one really knows what would have really happened of course.
More Fun To Compute
Member
It's remarkable that Assad was able to hold onto power considering that he has no popular support and nobody thinks he cares about their security.
From the very beginning, the people fighting Assad have overwhelmingly been Islamists who are not interested in democracy.
It has been terrorist groups with the support of a suppressed majority Sunni population acting out against crappy Shia leadership.
I am a Syrian citizen by the way, and the people of this country do not trust people with different religions at all. Don't see a solution other than partitioning the country by religion
Jaladinozozo
Banned
What is he exactly holding onto? His country is decimated, there were 22 million people living in Syria before 2011, there's less than 8 million left in the country now with more trying to get out everyday.
No, there are 17-18 million people in the country. 7 million of them are internally displaced, but they are still in the country.
Um, the Kurds are a faction of the civil war. They have an uneasy alliance with the government so that they can fight ISIS. So far their operations have resulted in connecting Cizire with Kobane cantons and a successful defense of Al Hasakah.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Assad is seen as the enemy in Syria as well.
The Kurds; Kicking Daesh ass from the frontline with the help from outside airstrikes, keeping them at bay from expanding. Fighting for an independent Kurdistan.
Secular rebel forces; Those who are neither fighting for the islamists or Assad, but still clinging to the original goals from the uprising in 2011 which was democratic reforms, expanded human rights. equal rights and regime change.
Civilians; Just regular Syrians facing an impossible situation, their country is destroyed, millions have fled, there is no law or security, they just want to live a normal life.
The Kurds and everyone caught in the middle.
This is so complicated, but at the end of the day I have to say I think Asad is lesser of two evils.
As far as I can tell there are 4 forces in Syria
Government - represented by Asad. Brutal dictatorship, but at least was stable. Minorities (such as Christians and Shia Muslims) have it best under Asad.
ISIS - a group so barbaric they make the Vandals look civilised. They have no qualms killing anyone who doesn't prescribe to their very specific brand of Sunni Islam
Moderate rebels - Do they still exist? They consist of mostly moderate Sunni Muslims. However, at the end of the day minorities are still better under Asad because they are probably looking to set up an Islamist state (correct me if I'm wrong).
Kurds - a group that's been historically fucked over countless times. They want independence more than anything else. They are the clearest "good guys", but they are not interested in controlling Syria only autonomy for themselves.
As far as I can tell there are 4 forces in Syria
Government - represented by Asad. Brutal dictatorship, but at least was stable. Minorities (such as Christians and Shia Muslims) have it best under Asad.
ISIS - a group so barbaric they make the Vandals look civilised. They have no qualms killing anyone who doesn't prescribe to their very specific brand of Sunni Islam
Moderate rebels - Do they still exist? They consist of mostly moderate Sunni Muslims. However, at the end of the day minorities are still better under Asad because they are probably looking to set up an Islamist state (correct me if I'm wrong).
Kurds - a group that's been historically fucked over countless times. They want independence more than anything else. They are the clearest "good guys", but they are not interested in controlling Syria only autonomy for themselves.
Maninthemirror
Banned
I would lump Kurds and rebels as one against Isis and against Assad as ultimately their goals align more than anyone else's
I think those forces have been destroyed a long time ago. What was left is currently in the large group of migrants heading to Europe.
Also the Kurds aren't really kicking ass, but they are getting they're ass kicked by Turkey. Who is a US ally.
I think Russia has a better ally in Iran than the Americans currently have with Saudi and Turkey.
Seductivpancakes
Member
Assad isn't gonna bomb ISIS with his new Russian toys. He's gonna bomb civilians.
Coriolanus
Banned
What? no. Of course it's not. Otherwise you might as well never bother with seeking reparations.
Your argument naturally extends into nihilism, mate.
Captain Tuttle
Member
I agree, enemy of my enemy and all that.
Or we can continue to wring our hands and make a new thread every time ISIS commits a new atrocity
This is an interesting line of thought. For Assad, at least, it might make more sense to bomb his non-ISIS opposition into submission first, and then bank on outside assistance when he's suddenly the lesser evil.
ISIS is the result of filling the vacuum caused by a lack of state control across Syria and Iraq. As terrible as Assad may be, the shortest route to re establishing stability is through empowering established governments. Assad is bad, but the current mess that has the potential for a failed state is worse. The Syrian people stand to benefit the most from the removal of ISIS as soon as possible, so if it means empowering Assad to do so, it seems to be the lesser evil. Additionally, further shoring up Iraq is required. The ridiculous thing is the only nation trying to do this right now is Iran. Sure it does work most to the benefit of their diplomatic allies, but it also is pro- old order.
Western powers are currently supporting the longer, uglier route where we think we can solve everything with time (remove Assad, end ISIS, and maybe even reform Sykes-Picot). I think there is a significant danger of not accomplishing any of this by trying to do all of this. Somewhat expectedly though, ISIS is becoming the Sykes-Picot correction as it strengthens, recreating the borders along ethnic lines, which is frightening. I don't think the world is going to be willing to talk to ISIS as a nation-state anytime soon, so who knows what we do when those borders firm up. Also, who knows how many years or decades we'll be waiting for the region to stabilize.
In the meantime the world will continue seeing the refugee exodus for many years. If we're not willing to push for the quickest and most stable end game (support Assad in reestablishing the former government) then we better be ready to welcome every refugee. It's truly disgraceful how few the U.S. is taking in right now from Syria (as well as Libya, Iraq, and Afghanistan - their destabilization are even more so our fault).
Western powers are currently supporting the longer, uglier route where we think we can solve everything with time (remove Assad, end ISIS, and maybe even reform Sykes-Picot). I think there is a significant danger of not accomplishing any of this by trying to do all of this. Somewhat expectedly though, ISIS is becoming the Sykes-Picot correction as it strengthens, recreating the borders along ethnic lines, which is frightening. I don't think the world is going to be willing to talk to ISIS as a nation-state anytime soon, so who knows what we do when those borders firm up. Also, who knows how many years or decades we'll be waiting for the region to stabilize.
In the meantime the world will continue seeing the refugee exodus for many years. If we're not willing to push for the quickest and most stable end game (support Assad in reestablishing the former government) then we better be ready to welcome every refugee. It's truly disgraceful how few the U.S. is taking in right now from Syria (as well as Libya, Iraq, and Afghanistan - their destabilization are even more so our fault).
I think you're being naive if you believe that's the case. Just like with Saddam, taking out Assad would have likely led to an even worse power play and situation than the one that exists today. Many of the rebels and opposition forces that were against Assad form part of ISIS today.
I would like to think it was more due to the Arab Spring sentiment that infected the region.
There are probably fractions still fighting for secular goals, but most of its structure is gone.
Turkey have an issue with PKK, they don't bother with Peshmerga, YPG and other Kurd forces fighting in Syria/Iraq. And they are kicking ass, they have won some very decisive battles in both Iraq and Syria. They are receiving intelligence, training and air support from western forces which is helping them immensely keeping ISIS at bay.
littleworm
Member
While the removal of Assad would indeed lead to an ongoing crisis in Syria. It is important to note that the dictators like Assad and Saddam create a large amount of resentment needed to create these extremist groups and the support from local populations either actively or passively to keep these organizations going. A peaceful middle east has no place for brutal dictators especially those who rule on ethnic lines.
Fuck that. 250K Syrians are not going to die in vain just so the scumbag Assads can still control Syria under a new figurehead. The entire family has to go.
I fail to see how empowering the same government that destroyed the entire country is a good idea. ISIS can be dealt with without betraying the Syrian people by letting the murderous regime remain in power. More support has to be given to Rebel forces besides ISIS. If anything, empowering Assad would also empower ISIS who would take advantage of the populations frustration that the regime is still in power. No one likes ISIS, yet neither do people like living under a murderous thug like Bashar.
Aceofspades
Banned
Saudi Arabia supporting ISIS? I'm sorry but you know nothing man...
ISIS was responsible for one huge explosion in a military base in Saudi Arabia two weeks ago.
Syria has devolved into chaos with 4/5 different militias killing each other, Assad is slaughtering civilians in hundreds everyday, true dictator.
BreezyLimbo
Banned
Oh sure, give more weapons to Al-Qaeda. That's worked out for us in the past.
Abinash117
Member
How do you think supporting the government that literally started the war will have any remotely stability? The one that allegedly let loose al qadea members during the war, barrel bombed his own civilians, and have a mass torture program. To support him will cause the US to lose many Middle eastern allies and possibly have them even further increase support of the rebellion. Arguably, I can say supporting a government that started the rebellion through violent means, a one that lost so much already, and is hostile to the US is just as stupid as supporting the rebels if not more.
It is so easy for westerners to say that BS when they aren't a target by they own government . Tell the Syrian civilians and rebels that hate Assad to tell him he is a better option to ISIL. FYI the US is involved in a program to equipment and train their own rebels to fight ISIL. The issue is that the rebels don't see them as a big treat in comparison to the government.
Tallshortman
Member
The Kurds in Syria have taken significant territory from ISIS and are the only ones to do so. Besides, unless you're some turkish nationalist being intentionally obtuse I would you think understand the PKK is not the YPG despite what erdogan wants people to think.
Well this pretty much ends all chances for any type of peace. No way Assad is ever going to step down with Russia backing him.
With America supplying and training some rebels, and Russia increasing their support of Assad this could end pretty badly. At least ISIS is going to get destroyed (hopefully).
With America supplying and training some rebels, and Russia increasing their support of Assad this could end pretty badly. At least ISIS is going to get destroyed (hopefully).
Al Qaeda and ISIS are not the only rebel factions in Syria.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southern_Front_of_the_Free_Syrian_Army
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