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SHENMUE 3 kickstarter (PC/PS4) - FINAL DAY - NEW KS RECORD GO GO GO!

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Vire

Member
We've been over this in the thread before. KS backers don't translate directly to sales. You can look up KS to sales comparisons for Steam games thanks to SteamSpy. For example Pillars of Eternity had over 70k backers, the game sold over 400k since release. A lot of people simply don't want to give money to a project this far out. Most are far more comfortable buying a finished product.

That kind of thinking got Double Fine into deep shit.

Give a look at the the behind the scenes documentary for Double Fine Adventure, they were certain that there would be a large increase in sales once Broken Age actually launched onto Steam, but unfortunately - it never happened. Kinda sad to watch actually, but it's a great look at the realities of game development for relatively niche genres and products.
 

Trojan X

Banned
You can't say Shenmue fans aren't devoted...

Only 48,568 backers for over $4,000,000 in funding. Literally averaging about $85 per person... that has to be some kind of record.

It unfortunately shows that publishers were right in not giving the green light for this game. There isn't a market for it, just an insane fanbase willing to spend exorbitant amounts to play it. Glad this KS exists though.

I wouldn't say that. I'd say this proves that there is defintely a market for the game. You need to remember that 80% of thje people out there do NOT like pledging things to Kickstarter. It doesn't matter what it is, they do not like it. 80% of the people out there will verbally support out of ease and buy the product when it is out. What will really determine the game's success will be the review scores, marketing efforts, and how graphically polished the game is. That's all the mass people sub-consciously care about these days whether they deny it or not.

When you look at everything including the fact the the KS was fumbled from day 1, this KS proves that Shenmue III has the potential to be massive if done right!
 
D

Deleted member 17706

Unconfirmed Member
That kind of thinking got Double Fine into deep shit.

Give a look at the the behind the scenes documentary for Double Fine Adventure, they were certain that there would be a large increase in sales once Broken Age actually launched onto Steam, but unfortunately - it never happened. Kinda sad to watch actually, but it's a great look at the realities of game development for relatively niche genres and products.

Unless they plan on splitting Shenmue III into two parts and promising to release the second half contingent on revenue received from sales of the first half, I don't think there's much to learn from the Double Fine Adventure.

Pillars of Eternity is the better example of a game that can see much larger success than its initial Kickstarter endeavor, especially if it delivers in a reasonable time frame and is generally received as a good game.
 
Wah? My point was that the backer to average pledge ratio seemed out of whack.

$85 per person on average seems incredibly high. I mean more power to the Shenmue fans, but that's crazy to pay $85 for what is essentially a $30 downloadable title.



Was it? Hmm, I just don't seem to remember it being that high for other big Kickstarters like Mighty No 9., Double Fine Adventure, Yooka Laylee. I'll look it up.

$30 downloadable title? That's only the digital reward for backing $30 in the kickstarter, they haven't actually priced this game yet.
 
Bumped up to the PS4 physical version, so happy they are offering it.
Kinda crazy to play the Shenmue games on 3 different systems - Dreamcast, Xbox, PS4.
Shenmue4 on a Nintendo console next?
 

Vire

Member
Unless they plan on splitting Shenmue III into two parts and promising to release the second half contingent on revenue received from sales of the first half, I don't think there's much to learn from the Double Fine Adventure.

Pillars of Eternity is the better example of a game that can see much larger success than its initial Kickstarter endeavor, especially if it delivers in a reasonable time frame and is generally received as a good game.

I don't really think Pillars of Eternity is a good comparison for a few reasons.. but mainly for the fact that this is the third entry in a series that is contingent on story telling. I can't imagine there being a large ratio of new players when it comes to Shenmue III given the fact that it's a much higher barrier of entry rather than starting fresh in a new world like Pillars of Eternity.

But I hope I'm wrong, I really do!
 

UltraJay

Member
You select your pledge level, and then depending on your shipping location, KS will tell you how much you need to add manually on top of that for shipping fees.

For example, say you select 500 USD, you need to adjust it to 510 USD to ship worldwide.

Back in the day we had to manually add shipping costs and have payments go through Amazon. It was a headache if you made a mistake.

Will the PC physical release activate on Steam or otherwise give a digital copy? Otherwise I may have to buy it on Steam when it comes out. It's pretty strange to have a PC Kickstarter without a digital copy to go along with the physical box. I got my Pillars of Eternity CDs months after I had the game already on Steam and I didn't even need them. Just wanted the box and goodies.
 
I don't really think Pillars of Eternity is a good comparison for a few reasons.. but mainly for the fact that this is the third entry in a series that is contingent on story telling. I can't imagine there being a large ratio of new players when it comes to Shenmue III given the fact that it's a much higher barrier of entry rather than starting fresh in a new world like Pillars of Eternity.

But I hope I'm wrong, I really do!

That and they're relying on gamers from over 10 years ago (16 for S1 but less for Shenmue II on Xbox) which is a very long time, they're hard to get hold of on DC/Xbox and people have grown up a lot since they came out, plus the industry has changed.

If they had/can manage to get Sega to release SI/II "HD" on Steam/PS4 the Kickstarter would/could have been much bigger. But if they can do that and give people a Paypal option for example and other crowdfunding means in that eventuality then it could still do very well for them
 

painey

Member
That kind of thinking got Double Fine into deep shit.

Give a look at the the behind the scenes documentary for Double Fine Adventure, they were certain that there would be a large increase in sales once Broken Age actually launched onto Steam, but unfortunately - it never happened. Kinda sad to watch actually, but it's a great look at the realities of game development for relatively niche genres and products.

Broken Age was shit and unfinished. Thats the reason no-one bought it.
 
I don't really think Pillars of Eternity is a good comparison for a few reasons.. but mainly for the fact that this is the third entry in a series that is contingent on story telling. I can't imagine there being a large ratio of new players when it comes to Shenmue III given the fact that it's a much higher barrier of entry rather than starting fresh in a new world like Pillars of Eternity.

But I hope I'm wrong, I really do!

I hope SEGA sees how willing people are bringing Shenmue to the table to start a re-master collection before 3 releases.
 

hawk2025

Member
You can't say Shenmue fans aren't devoted...

Only 48,568 backers for over $4,000,000 in funding. Literally averaging about $85 per person... that has to be some kind of record.

It unfortunately shows that publishers were right in not giving the green light for this game. There isn't a market for it, just an insane fanbase willing to spend exorbitant amounts to play it. Glad this KS exists though.


No, it doesn't.

Shovel Knight had less than 15,000 backers. It has now sold at least 700,000 copies.


https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/yachtclubgames/shovel-knight

Even your worst example, Broken Age, has 250,000+ sales, just on Steam, before counting PS4, with 80,000 backers:

http://steamspy.com/app/232790
 

shanafan

Member
Bumped up to the PS4 physical version, so happy they are offering it.
Kinda crazy to play the Shenmue games on 3 different systems - Dreamcast, Xbox, PS4.
Shenmue4 on a Nintendo console next?

Well, sort of already happened! Ryo is in Sonic & All-Stars Racing Transformed on the Wii U
 

enigmatic_alex44

Whenever a game uses "middleware," I expect mediocrity. Just see how poor TLOU looks.
So......does this basically guarantee a retail version for big box stores on release for regular consumers? (Best Buy, etc.)

It happened with Mighty No. 9
 

Vire

Member
No, it doesn't.

Shovel Knight had less than 15,000 backers. It has now sold at least 700,000 copies.


https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/yachtclubgames/shovel-knight

Even your worst example, Broken Age, has 250,000+ sales, just on Steam, before counting PS4, with 80,000 backers:

http://steamspy.com/app/232790

Is 250,000 supposed to be impressive? Because I'm pretty sure every publisher known to man would be jumping out the window with those kinds of numbers.

My point was those sales are not guaranteed, especially for a game like Shenmue III for the reasons I highlight above in regards to a continuation of story of a 10-15 year old game.
 
I don't really think Pillars of Eternity is a good comparison for a few reasons.. but mainly for the fact that this is the third entry in a series that is contingent on story telling. I can't imagine there being a large ratio of new players when it comes to Shenmue III given the fact that it's a much higher barrier of entry rather than starting fresh in a new world like Pillars of Eternity.

But I hope I'm wrong, I really do!

I'd like to remind you that PoE is an isometric cRPG, not exactly a genre that publishers are funding right now.

But you can look at Wasteland 2, as well. Yes not really as reliant on the the first game, but it's still a sequel and one of a really old game. 60k in backers, 400k in steam sales.

Look, any release is a risk. You can never really predict if something is going to sell. It's just how it is.
 

hawk2025

Member
Is 250,000 supposed to be impressive? Because I'm pretty sure every publisher known to man would be jumping out the window with those kinds of number.

My point was those sales are not guaranteed, especially for a game like Shenmue III for the reasons I highlight above in regards to a continuation of story of a 10-15 year old game.

I never said it was impressive.

I said your worst example still did 3 times the number of backers -- in one platform. Another one did many times the number of backers (approximately 40x more), and we could have used just the same logic: That Shovel Knight was "limited" in its audience by the 8-bit retro look.

Of course it's not guaranteed. No sales are guaranteed, when funding any game. Hell, in this case, 50,000 or so are so far, which is more than any publisher can say when locking down funding for a game 2 and half years in the future. My point is simply that your reasoning doesn't hold water based on the evidence we have, while your post said this shows that publishers were right, and there isn't an audience.

This Kickstarter shows nothing of the sort. If anything, it alludes to the opposite.
 

danwarb

Member
Is 250,000 supposed to be impressive? Because I'm pretty sure every publisher known to man would be jumping out the window with those kinds of numbers.

My point was those sales are not guaranteed, especially for a game like Shenmue III for the reasons I highlight above in regards to a continuation of story of a 10-15 year old game.

They're fine sales for a game that doesn't need to recover much of development costs.

My bet is >1 million.
 

Finalizer

Member
I can't imagine there being a large ratio of new players when it comes to Shenmue III given the fact that it's a much higher barrier of entry rather than starting fresh in a new world like Pillars of Eternity.

Maybe, but I suspect there'll be a not-insignificant number of sales to folks who've never played the previous games and just want to experience the mystical Shenmue 3 for the sake of it.
 

Vire

Member
Maybe, but I suspect there'll be a not-insignificant number of sales to folks who've never played the previous games and just want to experience the mystical Shenmue 3 for the sake of it.

Oh I believe that, I'm one of those people. Wouldn't be the first time I've jumped into a series without knowing what the fuck was going on (Witcher 3).
 

danwarb

Member
Oh I believe that, I'm one of those people. Wouldn't be the first time I've jumped into a series without knowing what the fuck was going on (Witcher 3).

There'll be something like the Shenmue movie DVD that came with the Xbox version of Shenmue 2.
 
So Corey Marshall said that, when he was cast, Sega gave him a Dreamcast with Shenmue that has Japanese VO but English Subtitles. Was this known before? I know it's what fans have always wanted.
 

Blunoise

Member
Lol and they just asked the cast what they see from there characters ending would be like and Corey said he thinks Ryu would get tired of his quest for revenge and move to Canada to Nizomi
 

ajim

Member
Lol and they just asked the cast what they see from there characters ending would be like and Corey said he thinks Ryu would get tired of his quest for revenge and move to Canada to Nizomi
And so he should! Nozomi is a one of a kind woman! I used to want to fly to Canada as a youngin to find her!
 

Redtale

Neo Member
Some numbers for July 3rd:

$335,960 earned - 1276 new backers
$176,000 came from the new limited tiers - 72 backers
$159,960 came from people either upping their pledge or from new backers.
 
I still can’t believe what I’m looking at:

6gJvQxI.png


KqPkuD1.gif
 

mattiewheels

And then the LORD David Bowie saith to his Son, Jonny Depp: 'Go, and spread my image amongst the cosmos. For every living thing is in anguish and only the LIGHT shall give them reprieve.'
Anyone familiar with how the rights to Shenmue left Sega? Did Yu buy it and form YsNet, or was it more complicated or Sega still owns it somehow? A news story might help if anyone's got a link.
 

x3r0123

Member
Anyone familiar with how the rights to Shenmue left Sega? Did Yu buy it and form YsNet, or was it more complicated or Sega still owns it somehow? A news story might help if anyone's got a link.

pretty sure sega owns the ip. They only allowed Suzuki to make shenmue3

Is this game affiliated with SEGA?
SEGA has officially given us the rights to use the "Shenmue 3" license.

Are there plans for the HD versions of Shenmue 1 & 2?
The property rights for Shenmue 1 and Shenmue 2 belong to SEGA, so we are not in a position to comment on that.
 
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