Sony on the future direction of PS3 and NGP, Watch Impress editor speculates on PS4

jeff_rigby

Banned
Aug 7, 2010
3,825
0
0
Florida
Raistlin said:
4K Bluray? Lol no. At least not mainstream ... and certainly NOT in 2012. They are not bringing out a new format this soon. 4K sets however, that likely is the future. The main rational for them is so you can more cheaply get 1080p 3D utilizing passive glasses.
Some 2 months later and the Wii U or Wi2 or WiWi (project Cafe) was announced at E3. Sony and Microsoft are under pressure but some articles are still speculating a 2014 release date with a possibility that if under enough pressure a 2013 early release.

Three months later and GE just announced that they are releasing an entire ecosystem to manufacture and player prototypes to display/use blu-ray Holographic 500gig disks. With minor modifications current blu-ray technology can access holographic micro patterns in the new GE blu-ray disk plastic. This means backwardly compatible with DVD and Blu-ray at little to no extra cost for the drive. Projections for the new drive are tentatively 2013.

I expect this for the PS4 and that puts the rumored by Digitimes PS4 being manufactured in 2011 for release in early 2012 not using this drive and confirms in my mind that it can't be a PS4. Add to this that forges are having problems with 22-28nm and AMD saying that their GPU would use bulk process not SOI which the current PS3 uses and there is no way a PS4 could be produced for 2012, it would draw too much power and get too hot at higher die sizes.

Yeah I'd love to see how they could advertise such a thing. Obviously it would play current games, but what would it do for future games? Would they require devs to make games scale? Would they even allow PS3.5-only titles? If it's the former, will the games really offer that much of an improvement that people would be willing to pay extra? Hardcore gamers sure, mainstream? Doubtful.
Scaling titles for the Vita is already being done, there is no reason that they couldn't do this for a PS3.5. Many multi-platform games are already down-scaled for the PS3 and Xbox having a PC as the upper end target.

Obviously they'd need to do something more with that extra horsepower - not just add some effects, fps, and AA. Some sort of new OS that allows serious multitasking? Not the gimped in-game XMB we have today, but true multitasking? That might make it worthwhile.
Looks like changes to the PS3 OS might be happening. If Live, webkit and Playview are going to be accessible in game (last two have been confirmed) then some easy way to swap programs quickly in and out of memory is going to be needed. Glib is also required to be accessible at all times for both the Game OS and the application side of the PS3. Sony might (speculation) swap out SysVinit replacing it with something like systemd (Linux) or launchd (apple). Glib already supports multi-tasking/loops and systemd supports SNAPSHOT swapping out entire programs (including register states) to the hard disk.

If they do this properly then an upgraded PS3.5 with more memory will only be faster at some tasks than a PS3 with less memory and if Sony requires all games and applications to work on all models then games will be slightly faster or have a higher detail/resolution but work exactly the same. It is a Sony stated requirement that any hardware upgrades to the PS3 not obsolete older models. Faster Wifi, faster USB port supporting a higher res camera and more memory if done as I state would comply with Sony stated policy.

GamesCom is supposed to have Sony introducing a new PS3 chassis that is "functionally" the same as the current PS3 but with no price reduction. I take that to mean smaller die size that could have reduced the price having the savings used to add more memory and probably a faster USB port or/and built in support for a higher res camera with Kinect like abilities.

All this is highly speculative and assumes the Digitimes rumor has some element of truth in it.

Sony is going to need to produce a new PS3 using different encryption keys. This will require two separate firmware updates going forward (can be transparent to us). If they produce a very attractive PS3 upgrade, the PS3 core gamers (who purchase higher end games) will probably purchase this new PS3 (which accounts for the rumored 20 million to be sold the first year). The older PS3 can be used in another room to access AllVid, RVU, DLNA, Qriocity or the Internet and of course play games on the smaller TV on which you couldn't notice the possible lower detail.
 

PdotMichael

Banned
Feb 9, 2011
20,759
0
0
jeff_rigby said:
Three months later and GE just announced that they are releasing an entire ecosystem to manufacture and player prototypes to display/use blu-ray Holographic 500gig disks. With minor modifications current blu-ray technology can access holographic micro patterns in the new GE blu-ray disk plastic. This means backwardly compatible with DVD and Blu-ray at little to no extra cost for the drive. Projections for the new drive are tentatively 2013.

I expect this for the PS4 and that puts the rumored by Digitimes PS4 being manufactured in 2011 for release in early 2012 not using this drive and confirms in my mind that it can't be a PS4. Add to this that forges are having problems with 22-28nm and AMD saying that their GPU would use bulk process not SOI which the current PS3 uses and there is no way a PS4 could be produced for 2012, it would draw too much power and get too hot at higher die sizes.

Scaling titles for the Vita is already being done, there is no reason that they couldn't do this for a PS3.5. Many multi-platform games are already down-scaled for the PS3 and Xbox having a PC as the upper end target.

Looks like changes to the PS3 OS might be happening. If Live, webkit and Playview are going to be accessible in game (last two have been confirmed) then some easy way to swap programs quickly in and out of memory is going to be needed. Glib is also required to be accessible at all times for both the Game OS and the application side of the PS3. Sony might (speculation) swap out SysVinit replacing it with systemd. Glib already supports multi-tasking/loops and systemd supports swapping out entire programs to the hard disk.

If they do this properly then an upgraded PS3.5 with more memory will only be faster at some tasks than a PS3 with less memory and if Sony requires all games and applications to work on all models then games will be slightly faster or have a higher detail/resolution but work exactly the same.

GamesCom is supposed to have Sony introducing a new PS3 chassis that is "functionally" the same as the current PS3 but with no price reduction. I take that to mean smaller die size that could have reduced the price having the savings used to add more memory and probably a faster USB port or/and built in support for a higher res camera with Kinect like abilities.

All this is highly speculative and assumes the Digitimes rumor has some element of truth in it.

Sony is going to need to produce a new PS3 using different encryption keys. This will require two separate firmware updates going forward (can be transparent to us). If they produce a very attractive PS3 upgrade, the PS3 core gamers (who purchase higher end games) will probably purchase this new PS3 (which accounts for the rumored 20 million to be sold the first year). The older PS3 can be used in another room to access AllVid, RVU, DLNA, Qriocity or the Internet and of course play games on the smaller TV on which you couldn't notice the possible lower detail.
I need an word bigger and stronger than "bullshit", any ideas?
 

jeff_rigby

Banned
Aug 7, 2010
3,825
0
0
Florida
PdotMichael said:
I need an word bigger and stronger than "bullshit", any ideas?
All this is highly speculative and assumes the Digitimes rumor has some element of truth in it.

The Digitimes rumor has 20 million PS4s being produced and sold in 2011-2012, that can't be true given multiple arguments....but if there is some element of it that is correct then it might be a PS3.5 with enough differences to be confused with a PS4.

Speculation in my post was labeled as such and all other information in it is correct to the best of my knowledge.

Sony has posted sales figures and Financial Results

Sony has posted financial results for the first fiscal quarter 2011, and the company has been hurt by a decline in PS3 sales.

Fiscal Q1 revenues from game hardware, software and online services dropped 11.9% from the previous year to $1.5 billion, while unit sales of the Playstation 3 dropped to 1.8 million compared to 2.4 million the year prior. The company expects the total number of PS3 units sold this year to be 15 million, which is actually an increase from 14.3 million last year.



How do they expect to make up the Difference in projected Sales over actual sales? Drop in price is a possible but the Sony India Rep is stating that there won't be a decrease in price. Firmware updates adding massive value, that's coming. New chassis design with more features at the same price, again a possible. But 20 million in a fiscal year starting late 2011 when this new chassis comes out....something must be very attractive in this new design to sell 5 million more units (30% more) than the previous year.

Feb 21, 2011 EverythingHQ.com (linked above) also states that Sony is reportedly developing a hack-proof PS3 SKU, to quote:

"The hack-proof SKU will be a slim PlayStation 3 model and will contain a 300GB hard drive as an incentive to purchase the hack-proof system - the price of the SKU will be £186.99, my source informs me.

The scheduled launch is unsure at this time due to Sony seeing if they can win the battle in the courts against the root of all the PS3 hacks - George Hotz.

Sony is essentially trying to get rid of all the old SKUs with these price drops - and even their own price drop incoming possibly - so it makes way for their new hack-proof model."
Aaron Lee, Taipei; Adam Hwang, DIGITIMES [Monday 4 July 2011]

Sony will have Taiwan-based partners begin production of PlayStation 4 (PS4) featuring body movement-based control like Kinect at the end of 2011 for launch in 2012, according to Taiwan-based component makers.

Foxconn and Pegatron Technology, assemblers of PS3, will undertake assembly of PS4 as well, the sources pointed out. The planned shipment volume of PS4 in 2012 is at least 20 million units, the sources indicated.
We have to remember that there is about a 6 month delay in the PS3 manufacturing pipeline so rumors leaked in Feb about a Hack proof PS3 design show up in September or later.

Another major point; If they do announce a new hack proof chassis that has features to make it very attractive (price too) so that current Core gamers would want to purchase it, it would eclipse the current PS3. So they will not announce one unless they are ready to ship. Has Sony been clearing inventory? The new PS3 being sold in Japan that is lighter and uses less power, is that a PS3 that was already in the pipeline?

Rumors of PS3 clearance sales in preparation of a new "slim" price reduction would apply to either a PS3 Refresh like occurred last year or a hack proof chassis.

Edit: Several blogs are claiming the new lighter and more efficient PS3 is the hack proof chassis rumored coming in Feb of this year. If that were the case shouldn't there be two versions of PS3 Firmware 3.70 as keys in the new chassis would not work with firmware designed for the hacked PS3.

The last Xbox refresh to 45nm replaced the 512meg gddr3 with edram on the CPU. This was apparently an economical refresh that allows a power savings and a reduction in cost. What has not been discussed is that edram is faster than gddr3 and the new xbox refresh could be faster with minor OS changes and memory clock speeds.

The PS3 refresh to 45nm may not have been able to do the same because of the XDR buss to GPU & memory. Was this a reason the rumors have no cell refresh to 32nm, a redesign to use edram which changes the XDR buss RSX and CPU connections would require a major change to the Cell. Is that in the works with the hack proof PS3? Possibly unify the 512 meg with both Cell and RSX on a 32nm die. OS changes were gong to be needed in any case for the new encryption key so having two firmware versions was already part of the Hack proof chassis requirement so why not include a few cost cutting measures. Also with no external memory buss to attach to it makes a similar Geohot exploit impossible.
 

jeff_rigby

Banned
Aug 7, 2010
3,825
0
0
Florida
Is this the Digitimes rumored PS4, a Blu-ray with Cell processor?

http://www.hdtv-news.com/sony/bdps790-bdps390-bdps590/ said:
Sony BDP-S790 Shipping in April 2012

Their new flagship blu-ray play is the Sony BDP-S790, and it’s most proud feature is it’s ability to output and upscale “any content” to 4K. There aren’t exactly a massive range of 4K HDTVs on the market right now, but if you’re lucky enough to own one, or want to be ready for the future the BDP-S790 should be grabbing your attention.

The Sony BDP-S790 also features built in Wi-Fi (802.11n) and gives you access to Hulu, Netflix, Panadora and others, but the very cool feature with the BDP-S790 is that it supports Skype if you connect and optional website. You can also share to Facebook and twitter via the new Sony Socialize app. As you would expect from their flagship blu-ray players the Sony BDP-S790 also supports 3D.


http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=436132 said:
Sources told DigiTimes that the PS4 will go into production at the end of 2011 for a 2012 launch. Apparently Sony will manufacture 20 million PS4 consoles for 2012.
Could the Digitimes rumor be confusing the Sony 2012 announced at CES blu-ray players that upscale to 4K with a PS4? Best guess is the BDP790 would have a Cell processor and might include Motion control tech. The total sales of 20 million seems about right if close to 2013 Sony announces that the 4K upscaling players will support 4K media when h.265 is released. And in addition it can NOW support streaming 1080P and 3-D IPTV if it used a draft version of h.265 which Sony could support on both ends.

Sony 4K TV already has a 1080P to 4K upscaling using the same tech used in the PS3 to upscale from 480P to 1080P. There is no need (at this time) for the Sony blu-ray player that upscales to 4K. I can envision may uses for a Cell equipped Blu-ray player including viewing of Media from Sony cameras including features mentioned coming for Playmemories Studio for PS3 this spring and the above blu-ray player is April 2012 = Spring.