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[Private Hoffman]

Are you not seeing the wii have record sales in the npd threads meanwhile the 360 and PS3 range from mediocre to slightly above average? It would take more than price drops to get either system over 80mill. Wii looks like the system that will take most of the market share this gen so it will be almost impossible of the PS3 or 360 to sell 60mill+.

What does the Wii having record sales right now have to do with the PS3 or 360's sales two or more years from now?

$400-500 ain't cheap.

$250 is a lot closer to mainstream pricing.

 

[Paracelsus]

And you'd be wrong, of course.

Interesting that neither the 360 or PS3 are even at prices of where the PS2/Xbox1 launched at, yet we're to believe that they're just going to pack their bags for the "next generation" only to release at a higher cost? What kind of planet do you live on?

The fact that there's been such a large increase in cost will only mean an extended lifecycle for the consoles. Since we haven't even hit 299 and below, where most of the sales will eventually come from, it's absurd to claim that neither the 360 or PS3 will surpass 40 million units. 360 will have the biggest difficulty due to a potentially saturated market in the US while the PS3 still can do well in all three primary regions.

Another interesting fact is that all people cheer for "multiplatform development \o/" because of the massive increase of development costs, then at the same time they talk about next gen hardware coming soon, with uberninja specs. So much for coherence.

No current-gen console will "run" to next gen till they optimized development to the very best of their possibilities.

 

[Bending_Unit_22]

PS2 was release Oct of 2000, the Xbox and GC came out November of 2001 so it only had a 1 year head start.

PS2 released March 2000 in Japan.

 

[BobsRevenge]

Im referring to the fact that the launch window for the PS2 is stretched very much by the fact All regions were spread out. The PS3 at least launced in 2/3 in same wek. The PS2 was also undergoing insanely understocked periods of time. Stocks never been an issue for the PS3

I wouldn't say that. It launched in the North America and Japan around the same time. I think that's about it. The rest of the world had to wait a while. The Playstation 2's in comparison was less spread out.

But yeah, the understocking is definitely a factor when comparing.

 

[ascii42]

PS2 was release Oct of 2000, the Xbox and GC came out November of 2001 so it only had a 1 year head start.

PS2 came out in March 2000 in Japan.
That's why first year PS2 numbers are screwy.

 

[DonDepre]

The sells of Wii gives the impression that 360 or PS3 are selling very bad.

But the reality is that PS3 seems to be in line with PS2, and 360 was in line with PS2 (or PS3) until this year, that is starting to lower their sells.

And, another fact is that PS3 has sold more than 360 in the first 18 months. Even if the general impression is that PS3 is salling much less.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

And you'd be wrong, of course.

Interesting that neither the 360 or PS3 are even at prices of where the PS2/Xbox1 launched at, yet we're to believe that they're just going to pack their bags for the "next generation" only to release at a higher cost? What kind of planet do you live on?

The fact that there's been such a large increase in cost will only mean an extended lifecycle for the consoles. Since we haven't even hit 299 and below, where most of the sales will eventually come from, it's absurd to claim that neither the 360 or PS3 will surpass 40 million units. 360 will have the biggest difficulty due to a potentially saturated market in the US while the PS3 still can do well in all three primary regions.

It's an idea, but for the most part I doubt it will work.

By the time either platform is down enough in price to be at the mass market levels we think of, both will be considered old. With electronics being old is a death knell.

But again if sales don't drastically improve when they've hit those milestones, why would they last on the market? Why would Sony continue to pump money into a platform that's sending little back?

The crux of your argument is based on the idea that sales will improve. My argument is that the improvement will be negligible.

As for their next platforms. I really doubt Sony and MS will ever try this again. I really doubt any platform will launch at over $400 again. What that will likely mean is a Wii inspired PS4 and 720.

Both marginal upgrades over their last platforms.

I don't see any reason for the PS3 or the 360 to buck the trends of past fledgling platforms. They will be "failures" for the rest of their existence. In three to four years another round of the console warz will begin. At new low prices.

 

[Bending_Unit_22]

What does the Wii having record sales right now have to do with the PS3 or 360's sales two or more years from now?

$400-500 ain't cheap.

$250 is a lot closer to mainstream pricing.

What did the PS2's record sales in 2000-2002 have to do with the Xbox and Gamecube's sales 2003-2005? To hit 100 million a system has to sell to everyone, most people will only buy the system that most of the people they know have. The system that sells the best early becomes that system thus preventing the others from breaking out into all demographics. The PS3 and 360 are past (or nearly past) the point of no return for this generation.

 

[JavyOO7]

With Japan the PS3 selling at a 8k-15k a week?

Yeah, I don't think so...

 

[BobsRevenge]

It's an idea, but for the most part I doubt it will work.

By the time either platform is down enough in price to be at the mass market levels we think of, both will be considered old. With electronics being old is a death knell.

But again if sales don't drastically improve when they've hit those milestones, why would they last on the market? Why would Sony continue to pump money into a platform that's sending little back?

The crux of your argument is based on the idea that sales will improve. My argument is that the improvement will be negligible.

As for their next platforms. I really doubt Sony and MS will ever try this again. I really doubt any platform will launch at over $400 again. What that will likely mean is a Wii inspired PS4 and 720.

Both marginal upgrades over their last platforms.

I don't see any reason for the PS3 or the 360 to buck the trends of past fledgling platforms. They will be "failures" for the rest of their existence. In three to four years another round of the console warz will begin. At new low prices.

Yeah. Hopefully no one debuts for more than $350 (and hopefully with one damn SKU!). Paying $500 for my PS3 wasn't necessarily a hard sell for me but I would've loved to pay less.

 

[ascii42]

The sells of Wii gives the impression that 360 or PS3 are selling very bad.

But the reality is that PS3 seems to be in line with PS2, and 360 was in line with PS2 (or PS3) until this year, that is starting to lower their sells.

And, another fact is that PS3 has sold more than 360 in the first 18 months. Even if the general impression is that PS3 is salling much less.

For the first year and a half or so of the 360's life, the PS2 was still outselling it on a monthly basis. The same holds for the PS3.
Then again, the DS didn't outsell the GBA in NA in any month until the DSlite was released.

 

[schuelma]

But the reality is that PS3 seems to be in line with PS2, and 360 was in line with PS2 (or PS3) until this year, that is starting to lower their sells.

.

Where the fuck do you guys get this shit?

 

[quest]

What does the Wii having record sales right now have to do with the PS3 or 360's sales two or more years from now?

$400-500 ain't cheap.

$250 is a lot closer to mainstream pricing.

Both MS and Sony have thrown up the white surrender flag to the Wii. They both know it is over so they are trying to make back as much money as possible. Price cuts on both the 360 and PS3 will not come for a long time. Both could cut the price by 50 or 100 and it would not matter in NA and japan. In NA and japan waggle = next gen not HD graphics or bluray. I think sony will end with 50-60 million WW and MS 40-50 million way behind the Wii.

 

[truly101]

Someone else posted that they thought the PS2 had a 2 year head start on the Xbox and GC. That would have been the DC, cept it was dead by November of 2001.

I was thinking US release. You know, us ignorant americans don't care about the rest of you peasants

 

[hauton]

I don't think 150m is reasonable, just because of HD.

As more and more people switch over to HD, the prospects of consoles like 360 and PS3 become more and more attractive. I think people are vastly underestimating both their potential performance. I can easily see 100m+ for either of them if one of them pulls away and runs with the HD gaming market.

But it will never reach the saturation rates like the PS2 did. I played a lot of my PS2 games on a $100 mono Wal-Mart TV. You could not really do that with a PS3/360 - you'd be losing a lot of the experience, at the very least.

 

[Private Hoffman]

It's an idea, but for the most part I doubt it will work.

By the time either platform is down enough in price to be at the mass market levels we think of, both will be considered old. With electronics being old is a death knell.

Interesting, so the Wii should be on its death bed now because it's using technology that's been around in the GameCube since 2001?

My whole point is this: The idea of "starting over" and introducing new hardware that will cost 400-500 is ridiculously absurd. That won't change anything. You'll have a repeat of this generation.

It doesn't make any sense to have your consoles on the market place for $400 and not ideally wish to get the prices down to 199 and below in order to tap into a more mainstream audience. That'll have far more impact on sales and profits than releasing a next-gen console and "starting over" EVER will. You lose the most on a console early on. Starting again prematurely only heightens the blow that you will incur in this cyclical business.

 

[nib95]

What did the PS2's record sales in 2000-2002 have to do with the Xbox and Gamecube's sales 2003-2005? To hit 100 million a system has to sell to everyone, most people will only buy the system that most of the people they know have. The system that sells the best early becomes that system thus preventing the others from breaking out into all demographics. The PS3 and 360 are past (or nearly past) the point of no return for this generation.

Sorry that's fucking BS. There are so many more factors to consider than that, the main one being price. The PS3 has broad appeal, a wide variety of games and more and more casual centric games coming out or on the horizon, plus things like HOME and LBP that are likely to appeal to that broader market. Problem is, the price.

Once the console drops to $200, strong Wii sales or not, the PS3 sales are going to sky rocket. Especially if Blu-ray sales continue to grow stronger and stronger.

 

[Psychotext]

Sales agers... does one of you have a comparison of shipped figures hanging around?

Obviously we can compare PS2 to PS3 sales accurately in Japan but as far as I'm aware NPD didn't do public releases back in the PS2 days so we'd be screwed for them. Europe is a PITA as always.

So shipped would probably be the best we could do. Anyone have them?

 

[BobsRevenge]

For the first year and a half or so of the 360's life, the PS2 was still outselling it on a monthly basis. The same holds for the PS3.
Then again, the DS didn't outsell the GBA in NA in any month until the DSlite was released.

I don't see the Wii having those kinds of legs just because of it's graphics. I think once the Wii2 comes out the Wii's sales will drop like a rock. We'll see though, I could definitely be wrong.

I think one battle between the PS3 and the 360 is which console will people be buying into the next generation. That's a curious one. It might be the 360 because of how they are starting to market the console towards a more casual crowd, but then again Sony did this well with the PS2 so they'll also be doing this again. The blu-ray is obviously a push for the PS3, but Live is one for the 360 (and no the PS3 can't ever match that functionality due to it's network structure).

 

[Guled]

If sony keeps a real 10 year cycle, drops the price to 200 5 years in, and blu-ray catches on like DVD and the PS3 stays as the best blu-ray player then its possible

 

[Psychotext]

Once the console drops to $200, strong Wii sales or not, the PS3 sales are going to sky rocket. Especially if Blu-ray sales continue to grow stronger and stronger.

By the time the PS3 is $200 blu-ray players will be so cheap that the PS3 isn't even close to being the first choice for most people as a player. The PS3's best chance to take advantage of Blu-Ray adoption is now.

 

[Hunter D]

Sorry that's fucking BS. There are so many more factors to consider than that, the main one being price. The PS3 has broad appeal, a wide variety of games and more and more casual centric games coming out or on the horizon, plus things like HOME and LBP that are likely to appeal to that broader market. Problem is, the price.

Once the console drops to $200, strong Wii sales or not, the PS3 sales are going to sky rocket. Especially if Blu-ray sales continue to grow stronger and stronger.

The PS3 doesn't seem to have broad enough appeal to dominate. The Wii has broad appeal. The PS3 and 360 do not. If they did the numbers would be much better.

 

[BobsRevenge]

The PS3 doesn't seem to have broad enough appeal to dominate. The Wii has broad appeal. The PS3 and 360 do not. If they did the numbers would be much better.

The PS3 will be positioned for broad appeal when it's price point is positioned for broad appeal. Same thing that happened with the PS2.

 

[slicedking]

In the last couple of years the GAF armchair analysts have been doing better than the paid ones. :lol

Yea right, like when you guys thought MGS4 wouldn't brake a million, or more recently you guys were shitting on Stephen Totilo (Gametrailers bonus round) for saying Nintendo wouldn't show any hardcore stuff at E3. :lol

 

[truly101]

If the Wii remains pretty popular for the next 3-5 years then the 10 year cycle for the PS3 remains true and even extends to the 360. No need to develop and release an even more expensive machine when your current one is already vastly more powerful than the market leader but can't outsell it. What incentive do they have?

 

[Kilrogg]

The PS3 will be positioned for broad appeal when it's price point is positioned for broad appeal. Same thing that happened with the PS2.

And by that time, the already broad appeal of the Wii will be incredibly huge, so why would the PS3 skyrocket if there's already a better offer in the same regard?

 

[schuelma]

The PS3 will be positioned for broad appeal when it's price point is positioned for broad appeal. Same thing that happened with the PS2.

Yes, and the PS2 had a broad appeal price point ON DAY ONE.

The PS3 is going to go 3-4 years before they hit that point. Not to mention that unlike last time they won't get there first.

The notion that in year 5 the PS3 is going to suddenly start selling 30 million units a year worldwide is just preposterous.

 

[laserbeam]

By the time the PS3 is $200 blu-ray players will be so cheap that the PS3 isn't even close to being the first choice for most people as a player. The PS3's best chance to take advantage of Blu-Ray adoption is now.

I could see us approaching 99 dollar Blu ray Players within the next year and a half. PC Drives are already down to $129 in alot of places.

 

[Bending_Unit_22]

Sorry that's fucking BS. There are so many more factors to consider than that, the main one being price. The PS3 has broad appeal, a wide variety of games and more and more casual centric games coming out or on the horizon, plus things like HOME and LBP that are likely to appeal to that broader market. Problem is, the price.

Once the console drops to $200, strong Wii sales or not, the PS3 sales are going to sky rocket. Especially if Blu-ray sales continue to grow stronger and stronger.

Goodness people, did history begin yesterday or something? We know what happens from past experience. The PS3's chances of tapping into "broad appeal" are nearly gone regardless of games or price. But then again Nintendo fanboys were bleating about price, the Big 4, the Capcom 5, and what not back in 2002 so we (well I) also know responses like this are to be expected.

 

[truly101]

The PS3 will be positioned for broad appeal when it's price point is positioned for broad appeal. Same thing that happened with the PS2.

It also helped that ALL PS2s played PS1 games (it was pretty popular too) and it capitalized on the DVD phenomenon, $299 seemed reasonable for those features and it really took of in 2001 when it hit $249 if I remember correctly. A lot of people may be buying HD TV's but you can get a good upscaling DVD player for less than a 3rd of the cost of the PS3, Blu-Ray is still too expensive for mass adoption, needs to be $19.99 or less.

 

[Hunter D]

The PS3 will be positioned for broad appeal when it's price point is positioned for broad appeal. Same thing that happened with the PS2.

So you agree it doesn't have broad appeal right?

Its too late for the PS3 or 360 to overtake the Wii. We are about to go on 2 years with all these consoles having been out and the Wii has dominated throughout that time. Its too late for Sony or MS to do anything to overtake the Wii. If dropping the price would work the GCN would have done much better since it dropped in price really quick. By the time the PS3 and MS drop prices to around $200 (which will probably be at the end of the third year or middle of the fourth year that all of these consoles have been out) it will be too late.

 

[BobsRevenge]

And by that time, the already broad appeal of the Wii will be incredibly huge, so why would the PS3 skyrocket if there's already a better offer in the same regard?

I wasn't arguing that mr. iJump-to-Conclusions.

But yeah, if the PS3 appeals broadly then I could see people moving on 3 or 4 years after they bought a Wii. It's hard to judge the Wii because it's so unique and there is no history of a similar console existing. This really depends on the games that are released and how they reach across. It's really hard to predict these things. With the new youtube upload functionality, LBP, Singstar, and such I could definitely see the PS3 being really big with the 16-30 crowd later on it's lifespan.

 

[Kilrogg]

I wasn't arguing that mr. iJump-to-Conclusions.

What were you arguing then?

 

[quest]

If the Wii remains pretty popular for the next 3-5 years then the 10 year cycle for the PS3 remains true and even extends to the 360. No need to develop and release an even more expensive machine when your current one is already vastly more powerful than the market leader but can't outsell it. What incentive do they have?

The incentive is it to be the first out of the gate with next gen waggle standard. I know it pains many here but waggle will be the default controller next generation. The casuals love waggle and are buying the Wii in droves because of it.

 

[BobsRevenge]

So you agree it doesn't have broad appeal right?

Its too late for the PS3 or 360 to overtake the Wii. We are about to go on 2 years with all these consoles having been out and the Wii has dominated throughout that time. Its too late for Sony or MS to do anything to overtake the Wii. If dropping the price would work the GCN would have done much better since it dropped in price really quick. By the time the PS3 and MS drop prices to around $200 (which will probably be at the end of the third year or middle of the fourth year that all of these consoles have been out) it will be too late.

No doubt it doesn't have broad appeal right now. It probably will be attractive to at least as broad an audience as the PS2 once it hits similar price-points, if it can.

I like how you guys perverted this discussion into a console wars who-will-win thread. I don't think anyone thinks the PS3 can overtake Wii sales. Matter of fact, I don't think anyone here thinks it will reach 150mil. I'm just here because I don't agree with some of your guys' predictions and such.

 

[DonDepre]

So shipped would probably be the best we could do. Anyone have them?

I checked Sony Finantial Results 2001.

PS2 shipped:

y99 (only March Jap launch): 1.4M

y2k 9.2M (splitted in Jap 3.3, 3.0 US & 2.9 EUR)

y2k1 18M !!!!!!!

 

[nextgeneration]

This isn't even debatable. PS3's failure in Japan alone will ensure that this 150 million figure is unattainable. In Japan, ps2 is selling at a rate of 4.41x faster than ps3 during the same time frame (thanks JoshuaJSlone). And in the US, in the first 20 months of both consoles' lifecycles, ps2 is selling at approximately 1.87x faster than ps3. Don't know about Europe, but I imagine ps2 is outpacing ps3 during the same time frame also.

 

[Juice]

I just don't understand how this math is supposed to work. Is Sony assuming Nintendo is going to gracefully bow out and become a dishwasher manufacturer or something?

By the time the PS3 is priced to move at $250, Nintendo will just launch a Super Wii at the same price point that's nearly as powerful and carries the brand name. This extended lifespan thing really only works when you're already on top.

 

[BobsRevenge]

What were you arguing then?

That it would be silly to try to appeal broadly when you don't have a broadly appealing price-point.

Basically calling in common sense for people who are overlooking it.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

Interesting, so the Wii should be on its death bed now because it's using technology that's been around in the GameCube since 2001?

You don't seem to like the Wii much.

The only mention of the Wii my post had was MS and Sony going for a Wii inspired design.

But if you want to act like this somehow deflates my point. The idea that something can be old in tech rarely deals with the tech inside of the machine. The idea is perception of the product. The Wii has been viewed as "new" regardless of the tech inside the machine. That is a position that both Sony and Ms would have loved to be at. The problem with surges in sales as time goes on for lagging consoles, is they get to be viewed as "old hat" they've been played out.

When I said old, it had nothing to do with the innards, and everything to do with market perception.

My whole point is this: The idea of "starting over" and introducing new hardware that will cost 400-500 is ridiculously absurd. That won't change anything. You'll have a repeat of this generation.

Starting over at $400 tops, with relatively the same tech used before. They shouldn't be hurting for money too much by 2012 selling a PS3 retitled PS4 with more RAM and slightly increased speeds.

It doesn't make any sense to have your consoles on the market place for $400 and not ideally wish to get the prices down to 199 and below in order to tap into a more mainstream audience. That'll have far more impact on sales and profits than releasing a next-gen console and "starting over" EVER will. You lose the most on a console early on. Starting again prematurely only heightens the blow that you will incur in this cyclical business.

And if sales don't drastically increase at $200? Will they continue on with a losing horse, or give that horse a new coat of paint and sell it at $300-$400?

 

[Hunter D]

No doubt it doesn't have broad appeal right now. It probably will be attractive to at least as broad an audience as the PS2 once it hits similar price-points, if it can.

I like how you guys perverted this discussion into a console wars who-will-win thread. I don't think anyone thinks the PS3 can overtake Wii sales. Matter of fact, I don't think anyone here thinks it will reach 150mil. I'm just here because I don't agree with some of your guys' predictions and such.

The people that turned this into who wins thread are the ones that think the PS3 has a chance of doing as well as the PS2 even though its first years have been mediocre and there is already a system doing exceptional numbers.

 

[DECK'ARD]

This is ridiculous.

PS1 and PS2 were powered by exclusives, the playing field has changed now. 360 and PS3 split each other's sales in the West. The system that is powered by exclusives now is the Wii, and it's sales reflect that. Nintendo are supplying something the other's can't.

I can't see that situation changing in the foreseeable future, 3rd parties will be multiplatform. Unless Sony suddenly pull a load of Gran Turismo level killer-apps out of their arse they won't manage a big jump above 360, let alone Wii.

 

[quest]

The PS3 will be positioned for broad appeal when it's price point is positioned for broad appeal. Same thing that happened with the PS2.

The PS3 is in a completely different situation. The PS2 had every single major 3rd party franchise as some sort of exclusive. They had momentum from day 1 and rode it to 70% market share. The PS3 will never have the library of games the PS2 did. The PS3 will never have the momentum the PS2 did. It is over bow to your Nintendo overlords.

 

[Elios83]

Honestly I don't understand the shock and awe for this news.
I mean, everyone has the right to aim high and being ambitious, a few people seem ridicolously hurt or indignated by such a thing :lol
At the moment all the possibilities are still open for PS3. It will depend on the execution on Sony's part. If they can provide great software, online services and compelling features for many years to come,Blu Ray continue to grow steadily until it replaces the DVD and price is brought down to mainstream level they can reach 100m+ over the lifecycle.
Psone went past 100m and it had much slower sales in the same time on the market while being at a significant lower price at launch (it's worth to note that according to Sony's current forecasts and assuming a price cut to 299$ in mid 2009, PS3 would sell 25 to 30m units at a price higher than 300$ which was the launch price for both Psone and Ps2). So everything can still happen, but it won't be easy for them, it will require a flawless execution and as always a bit of luck.

 

[Kilrogg]

[EDIT] Oh, okay, I misunderstood then, BobsRevenge, I'm sorry.

 

[truly101]

The incentive is it to be the first out of the gate with next gen waggle standard. I know it pains many here but waggle will be the default controller next generation. The casuals love waggle and are buying the Wii in droves because of it.

I'm still a bit wary of the whole waggle. I'm not going to dismiss the Wii as a "fad" (I think we're past that) but I do know a few people who bought who aren't your typical gaming types, and they've grown tired of the system. Thats completely anecdotal and really doesn't mean anything, but it grants me pause that the industry as a whole is going to adopt a motion based control scheme based solely on the Wii's success.

On the other hand, the waggle interface seems to be the most logical step and may only be a generation or two of refinement before it becomes standard.

Still, if I'm MS or Sony, I'm sticking with what I have for the foreseeable future, at least the next 3 or so years.

 

[yoopoo]

For some reference: After first 20 months in US.

GC: 4.2 mil
PS3: 4.85 mil
Xbox: 5.5 mil
PS2: 13.9 mil

PS3 needs a ridiciulous price drop to start pushing those PS2 numbers.

 

[DonDepre]

By the time the PS3 is $200 blu-ray players will be so cheap that the PS3 isn't even close to being the first choice for most people as a player. The PS3's best chance to take advantage of Blu-Ray adoption is now.

I think that Sony has fooled completly the other members of the BR consorcium. With all that bullshit of BR 1.0, 1.1, 2.0 versions, the BR reproducers of the other companies are getting old quickly. That makes the PS3 the best option for a BR player. You know that if you buy a Phillips BR player for $200, it will be old in two years, meanwhile PS3 can update to next versions.

So, I think Sony made the BR standar in a way that the PS3 takes the advantadge over the other BR players. Ey, and also play games!

 

[Kilrogg]

For some reference: After first 20 months in US.

GC: 4.2 mil
PS3: 4.85 mil
Xbox: 5.5 mil
PS2: 13.9 mil

PS3 needs a ridiciulous price drop to start pushing those PS2 numbers.

13.9 million units for the PS2!? Wasn't the Wii supposed to be selling at a faster rate than the PS2 already?

 

[nextgeneration]

For some reference: After first 20 months in US.

GC: 4.2 mil
PS3: 4.85 mil
Xbox: 5.5 mil
PS2: 13.9 mil

PS3 needs a ridiciulous price drop to start pushing those PS2 numbers.

Hmm, I have ps2 at approximately 9 million in the same time frame. All my other numbers are in line with what you have.