I Stalk Alone
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Speculating on Nintendo's WiiU software release strategy in 2014
- Thread starter hatchx
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Some Nobody
Junior Member
I know about attach rates, and I know typically Nintendo's are kinda garbage. But you also can't operate under the assumption that every gamer is going to want every game you come out with. There are a ton of Nintendo fanboys who don't play RPGs and won't want X or SMT x FE, for instance. On the flipside, some people won't play Mario games but maybe love Smash Bros. Don't drown the market, but offer enough so that players have choices in what they can buy.
2013 was allowed to be shit (not really, but..y'know) because 2014 was supposed to be awesome. If they can't compete with Sony and Microsoft in 2014, and waste time with a bunch of "please understand" shit? They can pack it up.
I guess that's why most of GAF is like "Nintendo's screwed", because they think that's the set path? If so then yes I can understand where you're coming from. I just happen to disagree. I think they know they didn't have anything ready for January through March and they just decided to push what was essentially a finished product (I presume) back.
The X trailer was like 75% gameplay and it was shown in like, July. 2015 for something like that would be ridiculous. Zelda they already said they could've shown it and chose not to.
SMT x FE maaaaaybe gets pushed back in 2015, but I dunno. I'm expecting to hear about it with their next Direct, at the very least. If there's no trailer then, I'll agree.
The Wii could get away with a lot because they were the only system to profit this gen. They actually have to go back to selling games now, and they need to get to it.
Well I think they are indeed pretty desperate to have their titles spaced more evenly throughout the year for 2014.
From launch until the end of september you could say they only had a handful of exclusive games. Day 1 was basically just nintendo land for the casuals and New mario wii U, spring was a third party exclusive- Lego City Undercover and then their summer game was Pikmin 3. The lead up to christmas brings with it Wonderful 101, Wind Waker HD , Sonic , Mario 3d world, Mario + sonic olympics sochu, wii U party.
Next year , the only games that I think we can all count on are DKCReturns 2 in february or possibly march , Mario Kart 8 sometime between april and june and for july through september will see the dual release of Smash bros 3ds /wii U. Next winter will see Bayonetta 2 come out before christmas. Wii fit U is supposed to be out sometime in the next year and I suspect there will be a handful of suprise wii U titles coming. Wouldn't put it past nintendo to make either a mario galaxy 1/2 HD or twilight princess HD available by next christmas.
As far as the future goes after that- well X will make it out over here within 6 months of it's japanese release, I'm thinking april to august of 2015 we will see it here. The next new zelda game will make it out that christmas. A handful of the mario sports titles will be out over the next couple years - tennis and golf for sure and probably at least 1 other title. As well, some other nintendo brands may well see another return - Starfox, Fzero , metroid.
3DS is a bit harder to call, so many franchises already have an installment but it's safe to say that we may see a mario 3d land 2 , kirby just got announced and some of nintendos portable classics could show up - advance wars , another fire emblem , etc.
From launch until the end of september you could say they only had a handful of exclusive games. Day 1 was basically just nintendo land for the casuals and New mario wii U, spring was a third party exclusive- Lego City Undercover and then their summer game was Pikmin 3. The lead up to christmas brings with it Wonderful 101, Wind Waker HD , Sonic , Mario 3d world, Mario + sonic olympics sochu, wii U party.
Next year , the only games that I think we can all count on are DKCReturns 2 in february or possibly march , Mario Kart 8 sometime between april and june and for july through september will see the dual release of Smash bros 3ds /wii U. Next winter will see Bayonetta 2 come out before christmas. Wii fit U is supposed to be out sometime in the next year and I suspect there will be a handful of suprise wii U titles coming. Wouldn't put it past nintendo to make either a mario galaxy 1/2 HD or twilight princess HD available by next christmas.
As far as the future goes after that- well X will make it out over here within 6 months of it's japanese release, I'm thinking april to august of 2015 we will see it here. The next new zelda game will make it out that christmas. A handful of the mario sports titles will be out over the next couple years - tennis and golf for sure and probably at least 1 other title. As well, some other nintendo brands may well see another return - Starfox, Fzero , metroid.
3DS is a bit harder to call, so many franchises already have an installment but it's safe to say that we may see a mario 3d land 2 , kirby just got announced and some of nintendos portable classics could show up - advance wars , another fire emblem , etc.
here's another way to look at it:
known upcoming games:
ead 1 - mario kart 8 (spring 2014)
ead 2 - wii sports club (november 2013)
ead 3 - zelda: a link between worlds (november 2013), zelda wii u (tbd)
ead 5 - wii fit u (december 2013), steel diver (2014)
tokyo 2 - super mario 3d world november 2013)
intelligent systems - smt x fe (2014)
nd cube - wii party u (october 2013), mario party: island tour (november 2013)
retro studios - dkc tf (february 2014)
monlithsoft - x (2014)
arzest - yoshi's new island (2014)
camelot software planning - mario golf: world tour (2014)
game freak - pokemon x/y (october 2013)
good-feel - yarn yoshi (2014)
hal laboratories - kirby 3d (2014)
platinum games - bayonetta 2 (2014)
namco bandai - smash bros. for 3ds and wii u (2014)
unknowns:
ead 2 - while i am speculating these are the people responsible for wii sports club (they made wii sports and wii sports resort), they are also probably working on animal crossing for the wii u. they just recently made animal crossing plaza for the wii u, and may have the next console entry up sooner than we think.
ead 4 - most recently finished new super luigi u, new super mario bros u, and pikmin 3. next project may hit in 2015 at the earliest.
tokyo 1 - these guys generally made smaller titles before. i don't think we'll see a wii u game out of them, but i guess there's room for surprises.
spd 1 - i don't know what the hell is going on with sakamoto's team. their mainstays are game & wario and rhythm tengoku, so rhythm tengoku 3d should be a lock sometime next year (you would think)
intsys - wikipedia shows they're working on an unannounced wii u game. putting this here, but i've been burned by that sort of info before. still, intsys makes a lot of games, and they're kinda empty on the console side as of late. i think there's a decent chance we'll see a paper mario from them for the machine (co-developed with vanpool)
monster games - they've mostly been responsible for wii-sized projects, but excitebike, pilotwings resort and dkc 3d felt smaller than what we saw out of them in the first few years of the wii's life. i feel that any future product won't be a console retail release.
next-level - these guys on the other hand, have made lots of console games in addition to a fairly ambitious sequel to luigi's mansion. i think they might be making a wii u game, but i don't think we'll see it for a while.
namco bandai - it could be that these are the guys also making pokken. that would really be stretching them thin though. or maybe pokken is just a mode inside the new smash bros. games: pokken tag tournament inside the wii u game and pokken fighters inside the 3ds game. sakurai loves packing his games with content so i wouldn't put it by him.
grezzo - probably working on majora's mask 3d as we speak.
outside of that there's really nothing else. nintendo has an exclusivity deal with sega and whatever third sonic game they're making. if it's not sega racing 3, then it has to be something somewhat substantial. i would think another crossover game would be in order. a platformer would be sublime, but a racing game would make sense for everything except that it would release after mario kart 8. if nintendo does anything else, it would have to be exclusivity deals like these.
Wow, what?! Please elaborate! This wouldn't surprise me, to be perfectly honest -_-;;
whyreggielie
Member
It was playable at PAX and was the longest line of any game. Waiting those 3 hours was sure worth it though, nice lengthy 15+ minute demo and really showed off how epic this game is going to be.
Just going from what's announced, if it were me I would have tried to do it this way to maximize commercial chances for both the hardware and the software (for example, not releasing Bayonetta 2 in the same month as Call of Duty) :
January - nothing really needed
February - Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze
March - Wii Sports Club
April - Mario Kart 8
May - Bayonetta 2
June - X
July - _
August - Shin Megami x Fire Emblem
September - _
October - Yoshi
November - Super Smash Bros.
December - Zelda Wii U
Would be good if they also had something small planned for July and September, but I think they're the least important months.
January - nothing really needed
February - Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze
March - Wii Sports Club
April - Mario Kart 8
May - Bayonetta 2
June - X
July - _
August - Shin Megami x Fire Emblem
September - _
October - Yoshi
November - Super Smash Bros.
December - Zelda Wii U
Would be good if they also had something small planned for July and September, but I think they're the least important months.
jts
...hate me...
I'm hoping that Nintendo pulls an "Advance series" of 3D Mario, with yearly HD remasters of Sunshine (with the blue coins fixed), Galaxy and Galaxy 2, culminating in an all-new original Galaxy 3 (although after 3D World hits, maybe I'll be begging for a 3D World 2 instead).
Not sure if Mario 64 could also be a part of it.
Not sure if Mario 64 could also be a part of it.
This.
If the Wii U tanks this Christmas third parties will have little reason to support the Wii U. On the other hand, Nintendo might be able to "buy" support like they did with the Sega. The Bayonetta 2 reveal came out of nowhere. They could have more partnerships in the works. Nintendo has to do more of those to fill their release calaendar, especially if they're become more or less the only major games publisher for the Wii U. It's going to cost Nintendo serious money though, since their non-AAA titles don't sell many copies yet they need those games to broaden the appeal of their struggling console.
Because Sakurai gets as much time as he needs until something is ready.
No matter what. He exists outside of normalcy. And looking at what kept happening with something like Kid Icarus: Uprising, i'd say this is even more important with a franchise a big as Smash.
one thing i feel nintendo is doing with the wii u is prepping for next gen. there's already some restructuring and expansion going on behind the scenes, but i feel their indie push is a way for them to scout new talent and build lasting relationships. you see it with never-before-heard-of studios like vanpool and grezzo, and lesser development teams like monster and next-level, who partner up with nintendo and suddenly churn out titles better than they've ever made.
Feb: DKC Tropical Freeze
Apr: Mario Kart 8
Jan-Jun: Wii Sports Club TLC
May-Jun: Bayonetta 2, Monolith Soft X
Oct-Nov: Yoshi's Land
Nov: Smash Bros Wii U
Dec: Fire Emblem X Shin Megami Tensei
New announcements: Endless Ocean Wii U, Some HD Remakes of GC games, and two or three surprises (new games from Nintendo studios and some second party games)
Apr: Mario Kart 8
Jan-Jun: Wii Sports Club TLC
May-Jun: Bayonetta 2, Monolith Soft X
Oct-Nov: Yoshi's Land
Nov: Smash Bros Wii U
Dec: Fire Emblem X Shin Megami Tensei
New announcements: Endless Ocean Wii U, Some HD Remakes of GC games, and two or three surprises (new games from Nintendo studios and some second party games)
Basileus777
Member
I don't think Zelda will make it this year. I expect Smash Bros to be their holiday title. I could see X getting delayed into 2015 as well.
Frankly I think people are blowing things out of proportions when it comes to the quantity of games needed for the Wii U to improve enough in terms of numbers and for long enough to hold until gradually more third-party releases (even if it would be stuff you don't care for like the big PS360 franchises).
People say not everyone is interested in all Nintendo games. Sure, but there's a way to make people be interested in more Nintendo games by spreading them out a bit more. Iwata said as much in one of his investors Q&A some time ago (it wasn't about the Wii U situation), that they needed to be careful not to release their games too close to each other because if you released two in a month, a lot of people would choose on or the other, whereas if you release one the first month and another the second month, chances that people will buy both will increase.
This is true. There are many games I bought on the 3DS that I wasn't sure were going to be my type, but since they were the "big thing" in their respective months, I took chances. If Super Mario 3D Land and Paper Mario had released in the same month, I know I wouldn't have bought the latter. But 3D Land was the big November 2011 release and Paper Mario was the big November 2012 release, so they felt like major releases that I needed to buy.
I saw another guy on a forum who said he was considering buying Wind Waker HD even though he hates the Zelda franchise, just because he was so desperate for a reason to turn on his Wii U and since he likes action games, he thought it would be the closest thing to a game he could enjoy. One first-party game a month is enough - provided it's not something like Game & Wario or Steel Diver. The 3DS doesn't always have one first-party release a month either, and Nintendo games are pretty much all a significant number of consumers buy on the thing.
What's more, people usually game on more than one system. One Wii U game, one PS3 game and one 360 game in one month is more than enough for most people.
Also, let us not forget that even though what's on the eShop does not sell systems, people who buy a system for Mario or Zelda or Donkey Kong will likely check out the eShop at some point, so even if Nintendo goes one month without a release, gamers might still be satisfied with something like Toki Tori or Pushmo or Nano Assault.
So I'm not particularly worried at the moment for the dearth of third-party content announced for next year. I think they have enough there to sustain sales until they at least get stuff like Disney games or Skylanders or Just Dance or whatever, which I'm pretty confident they're gonna keep getting.
People say not everyone is interested in all Nintendo games. Sure, but there's a way to make people be interested in more Nintendo games by spreading them out a bit more. Iwata said as much in one of his investors Q&A some time ago (it wasn't about the Wii U situation), that they needed to be careful not to release their games too close to each other because if you released two in a month, a lot of people would choose on or the other, whereas if you release one the first month and another the second month, chances that people will buy both will increase.
This is true. There are many games I bought on the 3DS that I wasn't sure were going to be my type, but since they were the "big thing" in their respective months, I took chances. If Super Mario 3D Land and Paper Mario had released in the same month, I know I wouldn't have bought the latter. But 3D Land was the big November 2011 release and Paper Mario was the big November 2012 release, so they felt like major releases that I needed to buy.
I saw another guy on a forum who said he was considering buying Wind Waker HD even though he hates the Zelda franchise, just because he was so desperate for a reason to turn on his Wii U and since he likes action games, he thought it would be the closest thing to a game he could enjoy. One first-party game a month is enough - provided it's not something like Game & Wario or Steel Diver. The 3DS doesn't always have one first-party release a month either, and Nintendo games are pretty much all a significant number of consumers buy on the thing.
What's more, people usually game on more than one system. One Wii U game, one PS3 game and one 360 game in one month is more than enough for most people.
Also, let us not forget that even though what's on the eShop does not sell systems, people who buy a system for Mario or Zelda or Donkey Kong will likely check out the eShop at some point, so even if Nintendo goes one month without a release, gamers might still be satisfied with something like Toki Tori or Pushmo or Nano Assault.
So I'm not particularly worried at the moment for the dearth of third-party content announced for next year. I think they have enough there to sustain sales until they at least get stuff like Disney games or Skylanders or Just Dance or whatever, which I'm pretty confident they're gonna keep getting.
Allan Holdsworth
Member
January: -nothing-
February: DKCR Tropical Freeze
March: Wii Sports Club (Retail)
April: -nothing-
May: Mario Kart 8
June:- Yoshi Yarn
July: -nothing- (NoA doesn't release games in July for some reason)
August: Bayonetta 2
September: -Miyamoto's new casual IP-
October: X
November: Super Smash Bros.
December: -megaton-
Add Fire Emblem vs SMT for Japan.
February: DKCR Tropical Freeze
March: Wii Sports Club (Retail)
April: -nothing-
May: Mario Kart 8
June:- Yoshi Yarn
July: -nothing- (NoA doesn't release games in July for some reason)
August: Bayonetta 2
September: -Miyamoto's new casual IP-
October: X
November: Super Smash Bros.
December: -megaton-
Add Fire Emblem vs SMT for Japan.
JB HiFi don't seem to have reduced store space at all for the WiiU since release, at least not in the stores I have visited. EBGames have, but they are still promoting up coming games.
nah. there was about a year that separated xenoblade's reveal as monado and its release as xenoblade. it took longer for a localization for god knows why. x is probably pretty far along if monolithsoft started on it shortly after xenoblade finished up. i don't see them working on it longer than four years.
Wii Sports Club is done by Namco Bandai, while Wii Fit U also saw some outside help.
Smiles and Cries
Member
X for Winter 2014 in Japan
2016 in the west
Bayonetta 2? no clue
2016 in the west
Bayonetta 2? no clue
efyu_lemonardo
May I have a cookie?
I didn't even know this was a thing, much less that it was Nintendo's F2P game. Have they announced that it would be on Wii U?
SolidSnakex
Member
If Zelda is 2015, then what's going to be their big Holiday title for 2014? It's unlikely that they're going to hold Smash Bros back until that time. Given their treatment of Xenoblade it seems unlikely that they'll pump enough marketing and hype into X for it to be that game. So Zelda really needs to be there.
Basileus777
Member
Why? There's no better time to release it, especially with Mario Kart coming out in the Spring.
ViewtifulJC
Banned
right after they announce they're co-developing Tales ofxPaper Mario with Intelligent Systems
and your lists of devs makes sense. Nintendo actually puts out more first-party games than anybody...it just looks like its not enough because their third party support is absolutely anemic, and they're working on the 3DS at the same time. Games like Mario Kart will definitely push sales of consoles, but there's a pretty big difference in "Double Dash numbers" and "Wii numbers". Mario, Mario Kart, Zelda...the same games they're releasing on the Wii U are their heavy hitters from the GC, and that didn't stop GC flopping. And the GC was cheaper with more third party support and without a central gimmick nobody wanted.
Maybe they find that zeigeist that makes casuals want to step away from their iPhones and iPads to buy a $300 dollar console to play. Maybe they just coast along on mediocre hardware sales the entire generation, releasing the odd high quality game every now and again, and propping up the 3DS/the Nintendo family whenever they can in monthly PR statements, hoping they can ride it out and maybe find a happy medium between GC and N64 numbers.
Ganbarion (Pandora's Tower) helped with Wii Fit U.
i think this is the wrong way to look at it. what probably happened was those nintendo games sold the public an unappealing product. at the time, value in video game consoles wasn't measured in the library as much as it was features and status symbol. the ps2 was the cool thing to have, plus it could play dvds (which was the style at the time).
the gamecube was a little box with a handle that didn't play dvds. it didn't even have halo on it. but it did have mario, zelda, smash bros, and mario kart, and those games sold in the millions. it probably would have sold considerably less without those titles to help bolster its library. imagine, for instance, the gamecube launched with just luigi's mansion, rogue squadron, and super monkey ball (along with a bunch of third-party titles), and then until august all it saw was pikmin, nba courtside, and wave race blue storm. that's what i see the wii u at right now.
i don't think they will get people to notice the gamepad through software. nintendoland was supposed to be it, and they made several poor design decisions just in the concept of that game alone. however, they can still try and message the value of the gamepad and how it can improve people's lives by either using it as a tv remote, interacting with friends (eh), and using it to interface with netflix/hulu/youtube. they've done a really poor job at just communicating what is good about the system.
as far as sales are concerned, i think october's npd numbers will offer a first glimpse into the future. if numbers are 50k-60k for the machine, i think it's fairly promising that it can rally through the holiday season. one thing nintendo was good at with the gamecube and 3ds though, is letting the rally die. however, if they can keep it up for a couple more years, and sell even just 4-6m worldwide from 2014-2016/17, they can probably stave off the vultures for at least one more generation. they'd better be prepared for the next one, although everything behind the scenes indicates that's what they're doing now.
What The Forest Taught Me
Member
I strongly agree with this.
SporeCrawler
Member
Ganbarion may be a good candidate for a new Nintendo First Party Studio.
They made pretty good One Piece games (that never were very succesful saleswise unfortunately) and Jump Ultimate Stars and Jump Super Stars
Nintendo owns 3 % of Namco Bandai right?
zelda could be there. it's hard to say. tww hd was a side project that didn't take too long to make, but it did eat some resources from wii u zelda. so far all we know is that they've discussed concepts and general directions of where they would take the series next. i don't think they've even disclosed artwork for the new game.
skyward sword was also pretty much done in early 2011 and wouldn't have required a ton of resources to keep going if ead started on a link between worlds right away. plus, four years between console entries is somewhat normal (these days).
right now, i think it's unlikely, but possible. if it does make it for 2014, it will be their big holiday title in america. i think it'll be smash bros. though. not sure if we've seen enough from that game to know its status.
SquiddyCracker
Banned
One of Nintendo's biggest mistakes with Wii was to release all the big hitters within the same 1-2 year span, and then enter a big title drought for some time.
2014 already got it good enough with Mario Kart 8 coming out early on, DKC, Bayonetta 2, and of course Smash Bros.
In 2015 we will see the new Zelda title (late), and Project X early on - and maybe a couple of other 3rd party (Sega/Ubisoft) titles in-between.
I don't expect the next 3D mario to come out until 2016.
Also, they could always release GC up-ports (1 every year) to stymie the lack of games.
2014 already got it good enough with Mario Kart 8 coming out early on, DKC, Bayonetta 2, and of course Smash Bros.
In 2015 we will see the new Zelda title (late), and Project X early on - and maybe a couple of other 3rd party (Sega/Ubisoft) titles in-between.
I don't expect the next 3D mario to come out until 2016.
Also, they could always release GC up-ports (1 every year) to stymie the lack of games.
Kai Dracon
Writing a dinosaur space opera symphony
I think this is a good call. In a sense it seems like the optimal time for Wii U really may have been back in 2010 or so, as the fabled "Wii HD" people like Pachter were yakking about. It would have seemed a lot more obvious that Nintendo was using the platform as a transition to catch up to everybody else. And prepare for direct competition.
For all the lulz tossed at Nintendo right now by people looking only at the present state of the platform and its releases Nintendo is apparently doing a huge amount of work in the background. All that stuff has to go somewhere, it's not vanishing into the ether.
So many people are saying Nintendo should give up, downsize, get out of consoles, except everything Nintendo is doing seems to be the opposite. They're expanding and gearing up.
Vargavinter
Member
Will we ever see Yoshis Yarn? I haven't heard anything for ages?
ViewtifulJC
Banned
Damn, you guys make it sound like the Wii U is kinda a wash and better luck next time. Hold out for maybe 25m sold by 2017, then release another system with a lot more internal developers/second parties ready to go. Will we see a "The Wii U is not our future" declaration in a few years?
Ghost_Protocol
Member
Next year I expect to see:
Donkey Kong - Feb
Mario Kart -Spring
X - Summer
Smash Bros. - Fall
Zelda - Winter
One big title per season. The year after is when I hope to see things like Metroid, Star Fox, and F-Zero.
Donkey Kong - Feb
Mario Kart -Spring
X - Summer
Smash Bros. - Fall
Zelda - Winter
One big title per season. The year after is when I hope to see things like Metroid, Star Fox, and F-Zero.
SporeCrawler
Member
NST and Monster Games to the rescue!!!
ViewtifulJC
Banned
SporeCrawler
Member
If WiiU fails miserably Ninendo is in a bad spot next gen as well. They need to have certain success with the WiiU with their old nintendo fans and also with a certain portion of the casual audience.
they said they are still working on it and its not in a shape to be shown at E3.
Spieler Eins
Member
lol That's in fact the most likely thing to happen.
shinra-bansho
Member
They're already partnering with Sega and Namco Bandai on development, publishing and/or distribution of some titles.
I don't see who else they'd be partnering with? Konami basically has no interest in the Wii U, I don't think Fox Engine is even on it? Square-Enix will put DQ on the 3DS, and has KH3 and FFXV, in between all their mobile stuff with nothing else coming from the Japanese side? While their Western side is probably just going to ignore the Wii U with Deus Ex and Tomb Raider franchises.
Capcom could port MH4 I guess.
And I don't expect there to be any Western partnerships.
Hahaha... oh, you're serious.
At the latest after Mario World and Mario Kart releases all the "Wii U is doomed" threads will vanish. The Wii U will go the same way as the 3DS and will probably the best selling console in 2014.
I meant stuff you don't care for, compared to the big PS360 franchises. The more casual stuff counts as third-party support for a system on which casual games sell best. Do you think Activision will stop supporting the Wii U with Skylanders, Ubisoft with Just Dance, Rabbids/Rayman, Disney with whatever they come up with, Sega with Sonic, etc.? That's maybe not the third-party support core gamers care for, but a lot of Nintendo's audience buys those kinds of games.
Without any 3rd party support? Really?
I swear, statements like these really make me wonder what world some major Nintendo fans live in.
You do know Xenoblade came out in July 2010 in Japan right? By fall 2014 that would be over 4 years since there last game, X will def be out in Japan in 2014.
I think people forget on Wii, Nintendo released Smash bros in March and Mario Kart in April back to back months, I doubt they do that on WiiU, but I can see Mario Kart April and Smash Bros U Aug.
SporeCrawler
Member
I dont agree that WiiU will be the best selling console. They are in a hard spot and the first thing they should be concerned about is to make the platform attractive at all.
However DS, 3DS, Wii didnt really sell because of third party support.
also disaster day of crisis was released 2008.
Nice sarcasm dude.
The Strokes
Banned
Don't toy with my heart
I'd love to see a Custom Robo game on the Wii U. I would run to the store and buy a Wii U inmediately.
Nevertheless, since the odds of that happening are not likely, what's gonna make me buy a Wii U is Smash Bros, whenever that releases.