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SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. shares rebounded more than 10% Monday on takeover speculation after
losing a quarter of their value last week amid concerns about the video game maker's corporate governance.
TTWO (15.86, -0.33, -2.0%) closed up at $16.19 to follow a Saturday report in the New York Post, citing unnamed sources, that
the company
has been in active talks with several buyout firms over the past week.
The report comes after the stock fell 26% over four trading days last week. On Wednesday, the game publisher filed a document with
securities regulators that contained a resignation letter from board member Barbara Kaczynski, who said she had concerns about the
company's management.
On Friday, the Los Angeles City Attorney filed a lawsuit over the inclusion of a sex scene in one of the company's games and an analyst
downgraded its shares regarding concerns first raised by Kaczynski. See full story.
A phone call by MarketWatch to the New York-based company wasn't immediately returned.
One Wall Street analyst, commenting on the New York Post report, wrote in a note to clients that the company could be a potential
buyout target, most likely for a private buyout firm.
But other analysts said the prospects of the company being acquired are slim, given the lawsuit and the possibility of an investigation by the
U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, a concern also raised by Kaczynski.
Citigroup analyst Elizabeth Osur, who rates Take-Two neutral, wrote that the company has a huge amount of asset value that could be
unleashed in a break-up. The analyst values the company's assets at closer to $25 a share to $30 a share.
But the company's risk profile makes a public buyer unlikely, she said.
"We think a public company buyer is unlikely given the bad press surrounding many of Take Two's franchises, but a private buyer could
find the assets appealing," wrote Osur.
Osur pegs the value of Take-Two's Rockstar Games studio, which publishes its controversial "Grand Theft Auto" titles, between
$1.4 billion, or $19 a share, and $1.6 billion, or $23 a share, depending on how frequently management publishes titles based on the
Grand Theft Auto franchise.
However, Banc of America analyst Gary Cooper who downgraded Take-Two Friday, wrote that too many wild-cards will depress the company's
appeal.
"We believe key employee retention, over-dependence on one title, high cost structure, cash burn, and mounting liabilities, are some important
reasons why an acquisition of Take-Two is highly unlikely," wrote Cooper. The analyst said he does not believe entertainment conglomerates
or financial buyers are interested in Take-Two.
Cooper highlights that any potential buyer has to ensure that key employees and talent remain with the company. The analyst mentioned Rockstar
Games founders Sam and Dan Houser as among the company's most valued assets.
"A better alternative (to buying Take-Two) would be to simply hire key Rockstar personnel and start a new studio," wrote Cooper.
Stern Agree analyst Arvind Bhatia, who rates Take-Two sell, also downplayed buyout prospects, citing the potential for SEC investigations, earnings
restatements and the need to retain Rockstar personnel.
Among analysts covering Take-Two, three rate its shares a buy, 14 rate its shares hold and two rate its shares sell.