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[Stallion Dan]

The only movement needed... is to start eating local. Go to the mom and pops shops, stop eating/shopping with corporate mega franchises

Even the ones claiming to source local often source a great deal from big corperations.

 

[Sandoval]

Out here in Nova, there are barely any local places. Everything is chain restaraunts. I love travelling and visiting all the local food places as they are usually really good but Northern Virginia doesn't have much in the way of signature and quality local food as a lot of the US does.

What sort of food are you after? There are plenty of great places that are either one-off or local chains. Perhaps we're in different parts of NOVA, but I don't have much of a problem finding good, locally-owned establishments.

 

[GhostWriter24]

I support my local LA mom-and-pop Mexican restaurant at least twice a week because their food is off the charts good. Pepe's Tacos at the intersection of Centinela and Culver Blvd. If you're ever in the area get a Carnitas Pepe's Burrito with everything -- you won't be disappointed.

 

[Machine]

This trend chasing business is killing me. I used to be able to pick up some reasonably priced Chinese food for lunch from one of four different places within walking distance of work. Now there are no Chinese places within walking distance. In addition, the only traditional Italian restaurant is closing soon and the only traditional German restaurant is barely hanging on. In their place, we get more "me too" gastropubs and a bunch of failed concepts. For instance, people keep trying to open falafel/schwarma joints and fail every time because they aren't as good as the one that has been around since 1983. If you can't be at least as good as the guy who has been around for 30+ years, don't bother trying.

 

[Zukkoyaki]

Lost in all of the talk about restaurants failing at a significant rate is the amount of ignorant people opening a business who know nothing about running a business and nothing of the industry. It's a brutal industry where veterans and professionals often fail as well. You see the head in the clouds restaurant owners all the time in smaller towns where a nice family or group of friends want to "give back" to their community and they end up in over their heads.

And yeah, a lot of people are dumb.

 

[ManDudeChild]

I thought it was something like 80% of restaurants fail since restaurants have been a thing.

It's really fast in the PNW though, I'd walk down a block in Vancouver BC or Portland and a month later all the restaurants except one were new.

My favorite is the unholy amount of hair and nail salons. Like, there are not THAT many people that all these businesses are sustainable.

Fronts.

 

[The Beard]

well duh, over what period of time? Over 20 years? of course most will fail/close down/whatever. Over a year? No, not at all.


I'm not surprised by this at all, the ability to make great food and the ability to manage a business are not one in the same.

Actually, most restaurants fail in their first year. Most don't last 2 years, let alone 20 lol.

 

[Frozenprince]

Just because you add Truffle oil to some noddles doesn't magically turn it into mana from heaven

Truffle Oil?

scust.gif

 

[Auctopus]

I don't know how true it is but I can agree with the sentiment that restaraunts fail to stay relevant, especially in the foodie/hipster scene.

Honestly, most restaraunts that people are saying is "the absolute best in London", they're not even going to a month later.

 

[clav]

I believe it.

Seeing Poke Bowl places opening up at every trendy corner.

 

[mcw]

Out here in the Bay Area there are companies springing up with the goal of automating most aspects of food preparation. There's a pizza place where most of the food is prepared by robots and the drivers are all crowdsourced. When I see stuff like that I figure that the food service industry is going to be one of the first to be completely destroyed by this shit.

 

[TheLostBigBoss]

Lost in all of the talk about restaurants failing at a significant rate is the amount of ignorant people opening a business who know nothing about running a business and nothing of the industry. It's a brutal industry where veterans and professionals often fail as well. You see the head in the clouds restaurant owners all the time in smaller towns where a nice family or group of friends want to "give back" to their community and they end up in over their heads.

And yeah, a lot of people are dumb.

This too

 

[NintendoGal]

He's absolutely right about one thing. Too many restaurants and too few skilled workers.

Out of my class in culinary school I can count the people on one hand that are still in the industry. Its hard work and once these kids get a taste, they're off to target or starbucks.

Some of my crew are guys that had zero experience but needed jobs. Training these guys is a nightmare but theres literally nothing out there employee wise.

If the minimum wage goes to $15/hr (well it wont with cheeto jesus) you're going to see a lot more counter service and a lot less servers, thats for sure.

I could talk about this all day, but I'm running late for my 12 hour monday, which should be extremely busy ... since all the normal people have yet another holiday day off.

Subscribed!

Just wanted to say, holy shit you hit all the nails on the head! Even with the small little cafe type place I work, finding competent workers is near impossible it seems. If you do get anyone, it's the teen lazy types.

 

[Makai]

New restaurants go out of business all the time. Not a sign of some greater wave.

 

[Bregor]

Bubble doesn't seem the proper word to use here. There is no underlying asset that will suddenly drop in value, just Restaurants that are struggling financially that will fail.

 

[TyrantII]

How can you have a bubble if you have labor shortages and supply shortages.

Food service is low margin, high startup cost, and typically most fail within 5 years. It's not really a industry typical to bubbles, but it sure runs with the trade winds of the economy as a whole.

This sounds more like changing consumer and labor expectations and those unwilling to make the change.

 

[LJ11]

I believe it.

Seeing Poke Bowl places opening up at every trendy corner.

A client of mine just opened up 2 and a 3rd one is in the works, lol.

NYC is bizarre, the fucking rents are through the roof, rates rising, more regulations, and these guys keep opening up stores. Many of them are getting smashed up pretty good, high end is doing alright though.

 

[milanbaros]

Bubble doesn't seem the proper word to use here. There is no underlying asset that will suddenly drop in value, just Restaurants that are struggling financially that will fail.

Agree. Restaurants open and close at a crazy rate even in the boom times, something about complete amateurs attracted to the industry.

 

[ferr]

To do that I'm going to tell the story of the rise and fall of Matt Semmelhack and Mark Liberman's AQ restaurant in San Francisco.

I think revealing what restaurant he'll be documenting is going to lead to an observer effect.

 

[ezrarh]

Agree. Restaurants open and close at a crazy rate even in the boom times, something about complete amateurs attracted to the industry.

Right - it's really hard to have a bubble when you let things fail. The restaurant industry gets better through failure so sucks for the people who fail but the industry isn't going anywhere.

 

[ameratsu]

This trend chasing business is killing me. I used to be able to pick up some reasonably priced Chinese food for lunch from one of four different places within walking distance of work. Now there are no Chinese places within walking distance. In addition, the only traditional Italian restaurant is closing soon and the only traditional German restaurant is barely hanging on. In their place, we get more "me too" gastropubs and a bunch of failed concepts. For instance, people keep trying to open falafel/schwarma joints and fail every time because they aren't as good as the one that has been around since 1983. If you can't be at least as good as the guy who has been around for 30+ years, don't bother trying.

I generally agree with your post, but the bolded is an interesting sentiment: don't bother opening a restaurant if you can't immediately reach the level of quality and expertise that established restaurants reached through decades of service. That's a bar that's verging on impossible if the established restaurants are competent.

As an aside, I find a lot of my friends and acquaintances are really into trying new restaurants for the first time, but less into subsequent visits as they just fall back on their favourites. Even if we agree these restaurants are very good, we rarely make a point of going back because there are so many options.

 

[Skellig Gra]

Out here in the Bay Area there are companies springing up with the goal of automating most aspects of food preparation. There's a pizza place where most of the food is prepared by robots and the drivers are all crowdsourced. When I see stuff like that I figure that the food service industry is going to be one of the first to be completely destroyed by this shit.

Eh I dunno about that. If that was th case everyone would be eating at fast food restaurants exclusively.

 

[andthebeatgoeson]

I want to see the financials. Is it all a race to the bottom money wise?

 

[lawnchair]

I could talk about this all day, but I'm running late for my 12 hour monday, which should be extremely busy ... since all the normal people have yet another holiday day off.

shame about those holidays, huh? i wish everyone could just work all day every day. i mean wtf man!

 

[GatorBait]

I want to see the financials. Is it all a race to the bottom money wise?

Going with my gut, I want to say "no." At least, if you are speaking to gross menu prices (profit margins may be a different story).

If anything, rising overhead costs (rent and cost of labor) are likely causing restaurants to increase their prices. That alone is probably decreasing their business volume, but then you combine that with the increasing supply of new restaurants (including a higher rate "copycats" that are close substitutes to the menu/food types of any one particular place), and the still deflated amount of disposable income across the majority of the populace, and you have a recipe for eventual contraction in the industry.

 

[digdug2k]

The food trucks that used to come around my old work building were fine. 7-9 dollars for a meal that was ready in 5 minutes or so and was comparable with similar restaurant portions and price.

And yea, we had generic 15 dollar for a tiny plate trucks as well, but nobody went to those. Everyone flocked to the ones that had fair prices and big portions and were fast. I don't think food trucks are necessarily a fad or need to die. There's just a ton of people who smell "easy" money jumping in and failing, but the good trucks still seem to manage just fine.

Heh. American portions are so huge, I don't mind paying for a "small" plate. But $15 for a small plate just makes me mad.

 

[Zizbuka]

There's no such thing as local food. But I get it.

You obviously don't live in the heart of Amish country. We have tons of homegrown foods, including meats. We even have a couple of farms with buffalo, and restaurants that make buffalo burgers.

Cities make up a very small part of the country.

 

[hom3land]

I'm waiting to see if there is a beer bubble. There's 5 in 15 minutes driving distance from my place. There's another 25 or so I my county. Not complaining about great beer but it's insane the growth of the industry.

 

[Slayven]

I'm waiting to see if there is a beer bubble. There's 5 in 15 minutes driving distance from my place. There's another 25 or so I my county. Not complaining about great beer but it's insane the growth of the industry.

Beer or bar?

 

[leroidys]

Not really getting "bubble" from the OP. It sounds like there's just a lot of competition? The restaurant industry has always had high turnover.

 

[PhantomX1313]

I do not believe in this perception of OP, hard working in an business field follows success.
There's 1000 new businesses and companies opening forming everyday do you think they gonna all fail when there market is saturated. Competition in businesses doesn't means failure, yes there are ups and downs but that doesn't mean closing your business at all.

 

[PoorChoices]

I always wondered if all these copy cats had an impact on each other. Can't be that big of a deman for Korean Mexican fusion

...I want a Korean BBQ burrito in the worst way now.

On topic though, this doesn't surprise me. However, it is sad to see such wonderful places not flourish the way they deserve to.

 

[Machine]

I generally agree with your post, but the bolded is an interesting sentiment: don't bother opening a restaurant if you can't immediately reach the level of quality and expertise that established restaurants reached through decades of service. That's a bar that's verging on impossible if the established restaurants are competent.

I think it's understood that a restaurant needs some time to work out the kinks and find its niche. But if you are trying to directly compete with an established business and haven't figured out how to at least match them in quality after the first six months, you're probably going to fail. If I try a place after it's been open a few months and it's not as good as my usual place, why would I ever go back?

 

[TarpitCarnivore]

I was reading an article about restaurants in the Bay Area, and presumably in any tech heavy city, and how they have a few struggles that are really causing issues:

* A LOT of large companies are now serving food to their employees. So you have a lot of chefs taking jobs at these big companies instead of smaller restaurants

* Rent prices are skyrocketing in a lot of major cities which is making it very hard for these places to surive. They need to charge a premium just to make ends meet, but then people don't want to buy $15 burgers or burritos

* Staff can't afford to live close to these cities so they're working in more affordable towns

 

[Greddleok]

I wonder what the situation is in the UK too. In the small town I live in, there's like 12+ restaurants, with new ones opening every 6 months.

I feel like there's also a bubble here.

 

[Coriolanus]

Except automating a kitchen job is going to be incredibly difficult if not impossible for decades. Even relatively dumb mechanical tasks like washing dishes still require constant human supervision.

I don't see how anyone hopes to automate something as involved as baking pastries or perfectly cooking a steak.

About that.

it's not about "perfectly" doing something either, but about doing something well enough that the average consumer doesn't care. Especially when you're doing it well enough AND cheaper.

But yes, elaborate pastries are tricky.

 

[TarpitCarnivore]

About that.

it's not about "perfectly" doing something either, but about doing something well enough that the average consumer doesn't care. Especially when you're doing it well enough AND cheaper.

But yes, elaborate pastries are tricky.

Geez, people really oversell the whole steak thing. It comes down entirely to timing, which is all automation is. Making a steak is not some overly complicated, meticulous thing.

 

[Shogmaster]

I always wondered if all these copy cats had an impact on each other. Can't be that big of a deman for Korean Mexican fusion

There is ZERO demand for Korean tacos outside of Kogi trucks. Those Korean taco trucks were bane of my existence during lunch time when I was working in Santa Monica...

 

[fabricated backlash]

From my experience talking to cooks, restaurant owners and managers you'd think their a charity since it's apparently immpossible to make money and business is always worse than ever before.

 

[Parch]

I thought it was something like 80% of restaurants fail since restaurants have been a thing.

It's really fast in the PNW though, I'd walk down a block in Vancouver BC or Portland and a month later all the restaurants except one were new.

I've seen a lot of turnover as well. If it isn't a chain, a restaurant seems to have an extremely low chance of survival. It seems like a very poor and risky investment.

 

[MisterNugNug]

Its hard to find dependable line cooks and dishwashers. At my place our dishwasher has been out with an infection for the longest time (several weeks now) and we don't want to hire anyone else because he is so dependable but at the same time we're working short staffed.

A veteran line cook just came back and she's working the lead position and I'm helping to assist, its about damn time.

 

[Syriel]

Complaining about labor costs? Is $4 an hour too much for servers? Because the only way a server is making that is if they're not getting tipped/subsidized by customers, causing the company to make up the minimum wage difference. Which frequently isn't their fault.

And if it is more counter service/fast casual, there generally isn't a wait staff or food runner. Just chefs/food prep staff and cashiers.

Nope. On the West Coast (which includes the entire PNW and SF restaurants mentioned in OP's quote) any pay below minimum wage is illegal and there is no tip credit.

Servers get paid minimum wage (or more), plus any tips they can collect. This has made for situations where servers are the highest paid staff at restaurants, eclipsing the cooks.

It's one reason why you're seeing more no tip/tip included places.

 

[LJ11]

Nope. On the West Coast (which includes the entire PNW and SF restaurants mentioned in OP's quote) any pay below minimum wage is illegal and there is no tip credit.

Servers get paid minimum wage (or more), plus any tips they can collect. This has made for situations where servers are the highest paid staff at restaurants, eclipsing the cooks.

It's one reason why you're seeing more no tip/tip included places.

It also reduces labor disputes, look at some of the top restaurateurs and most of them have been hit with some type of lawsuit involving tips. Stop it altogether and get rid of a potential liability, most patrons aren't fans of tipping anyway.

 

[Biske]

It also reduces labor disputes, look at some of the top restaurateurs and most of them have been hit with some type of lawsuit involving tips. Stop it altogether and get rid of a potential liability, most patrons aren't fans of tipping anyway.

The whole tipping game does often make you feel like a) an asshole b) a cheapass or c) lording over some poor person

 

[Ekai]

I always try to eat local if I can. Big food chains tend to be...ehh.

 

[CyclopsRock]

I never understand why all Americans and Canadians don't eat at Chilis every single day. Everytime I go to the US I make sure I go to at least one. It's my babe.

 

[Phoenix RISING]

I'm a Bay Area man displaced in the...ugh...that is midwest. I visited home recently and there are seafood joints everywhere. I was in heaven.

There are geographical reasons why there are not shrimp and oyster and gumbo joints in Michigan, but it would be nice to have better fare than Red Lobster. Don't the Great Lakes have fish?

The industry in inundated with burger and wing joints. And they're not even as good as the mom and pop places.

But even soul food joints serve cheep food at high prices!

 

[Machine]

I'm a Bay Area man displaced in the...ugh...that is midwest. I visited home recently and there are seafood joints everywhere. I was in heaven.

There are geographical reasons why there are not shrimp and oyster and gumbo joints in Michigan, but it would be nice to have better fare than Red Lobster. Don't the Great Lakes have fish?

The industry in inundated with burger and wing joints. And they're not even as good as the mom and pop places.

But even soul food joints serve cheep food at high prices!

Where in Michigan are you? There are lots of places to get good lake trout, perch, and whitefish from the Great Lakes. Of course, the best stuff is usually farther north along both coasts.

 

[Nightbird]

I remember when a few years ago Bubble Tea shops started to appear everywhere because it was popular with the young people. Now it feels like there's just one in the entire region lol

 

[TarpitCarnivore]

I remember when a few years ago Bubble Tea shops started to appear everywhere because it was popular with the young people. Now it feels like there's just one in the entire region lol

Bubble Tea is different though, as there's ALWAYS going to be hot trends people jump on. Just off the top of my head I can remember bubble tea, cupcakes, froyo, doughnuts (now) and burgers. The main issue with these are the tricks aren't sustainable over the long term. In my area a mac & cheese only place opened and guess what, it closed 2 years later. This stuff only has so much long tail unless there is HUGE foot traffic.