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Third and Fourth Console Curse

F

F#A#Oo

Banned
So it's starting to look like the 3rd console curse is a very real possibility and it will be coming to haunt MS. I don't know in what kind of place MS is in but it seems to be somewhere where they think they have control and a position of forcing through change regardless of how the consumer is affected. TitanFall does look good though. Call of Duty in space was always something people joked about and it's finally happening sort of.

Also what should we make of the 4th console curse? SEGA died from theirs and Nintendo hit an all time low from their 4th console. Can Sony break the trend?

What I worry about with Sony is the launch line up. Knack looks nice but there seems to something uninspiring about it in terms of gameplay.

Drive Club in my mind is up against GT6 on the PS3. I absolutely loved the MotorStorm game's (Apocalypse and RC not so much though). I think Evolution should have stuck to their heritage of arcade racing rather than simulation.

As for Killzone:SF I will say it; the Killzone series is a mediocre shooter series and no matter how much money and marketing Sony put behind it the series will never be anything but beautiful but deeply flawed shooter. My most memorable thing from the series is the sound when you get a kill.

Infamous, loved the first one to death but the sequels just got worse and less interesting for me. Second Son does look very very nice in motion though I won't lie but I can see the main protagonist grating on me fast.

I'm assuming these will be the big hitters that Sony is relying on to get people in on the PS4. I don't think it's enough to be honest.

What do you all think?
 
M

Mysterious

Banned
There is absolutely no way Sony will fail at all with the PlayStation 4.

It really is the return of the King. I expect sales somewhere in between PlayStation and PlayStation 2. Many Xbox 360 players are making the switch to PlayStation 4.
 
L

Lingitiz

Member
Drive Club is an arcade racer isn't it? Killzone actually looks like a really interesting game with the new level design.
 
M

Moussuki

Banned
well, the third console curse makes sense: arrogance, hubris builds with two successes, as was obvious with N, Sony and now Ms. But I dont see the logic behind th 4th console curse. If anything, what does not kill makes you stronger.
 
E

Eusis

Member
While it's an interesting pattern it's not something to take as absolute fact, especially since Sega's is somewhat conditional (they had an even earlier console and a sort of first iteration of the Master System too), though I guess if it were to fully hold true we WOULD be looking at a potential crash: X1 negativity really does do it in, PS4 gets off stronger but ends up doing similarly to Wii U, and Wii U still sorta hovers around low numbers, meaning we see a massive dip period. I don't think it's going to be quite like that (hell, there's a solid chance that the slew of Wii U games WILL make it pick back up, even if it's probably going to be trapped in the shadow of the Wii), but I do imagine more realistically we're in for slower growth.

Also for whatever it's worth I recall the Dreamcast did WAY better than the Saturn, so it does seem plausible Sony follows that, and given how the PS3 did relative to the Saturn... yeah, it'd be more than OK. SEGA was just on a sinking ship they managed to right long enough to get everyone on the life boats, as it were.

EDIT: Yeah, Saturn did 9.5 million according to Wikipedia with about 4-5 years on the market, and Dreamcast did 10.6 million with three years in Japan and two years outside of Japan, with the first one being REALLY good.
 
IrishNinja

IrishNinja

Member
i'm honestly hoping for something more exciting for PS4's launch to show at TGS, not sure what my chances are...but it's weird seeing the curse extended to 4th console as well alla sudden

onQ123 said:
There is no 3rd console curse.
Click to expand...

okay, name me a good 3rd console that didn't have a big mess surrounding it, i'm curious

Little Green Yoda said:
Does the Virtual Boy qualify as the 3rd Nintendo console?
Click to expand...

i don't think we can cross streams with handhelds like that
 
H

hamchan

Member
I think the big third-party multiplatforms will be the games to move people onto the next-gen at launch and the price of the PS4 will be the major factor that makes people choose the PS4 over the Xbone at launch.
 
R

Router

Hopsiah the Kanga-Jew
There's no such thing as a curse. The fact that so many people seem eager to align hocus with technology here is baffling.
 
Jinfash

Jinfash

needs 2 extra inches
Mysterious said:
There is absolutely no way Sony will fail at all with the PlayStation 4.
Click to expand...
Ho ho ho, at these troubled times, yes there is! Bookmarking this for posterity.

Edit: on a second thought I'll give you the benefit of doubt and consider this sarcasm.
 
N

Ninja Scooter

Member
No company has ever increased or even maintained marketshare with their 3rd console so there must be something to it. Saturn, PS3, N64 all went down considerably.
 
S

Sp33Demon

Member
All valid concerns even though I disagree with most of what you said. Specifically, Killzone is a great shooter but has a very different feel to the CoD/Halo stuff that most are addicted to. Infamous has only had two versions (not counting FoB); and I2 was I1 with fewer restrictions, more powers, a bigger map and less redundancy of missions...not seeing how it got worse. Lastly, Drive Club is designed more for the casual crowd. Let's face it, GT has always been very clinical with a focus on precision, authenticity (except for damage) and shaving tenths and not so much about just having fun.

As far as MS, don't count them as part of the 3rd console curse. These guys want your living room and they have the money to buy their way in if they can't just influence their way.
 
B

border

Member
F#A#Oo said:
As for Killzone:SF I will say it; the Killzone series is a mediocre shooter series and no matter how much money and marketing Sony put behind it the series will never be anything but beautiful but deeply flawed shooter. My most memorable thing from the series is the sound when you get a kill.
Click to expand...

I am kinda interested to see how Killzone does as a launch title with a Christmas time release, with no major competitors other than Call of Duty.

Previous Killzone titles were released in the middle of the slow springtime sales cycle, and did not really have holiday marketing support behind them.

Perfect Dark Zero was garbage and it did pretty respectable sales if only because it was one of the few shooters available during the 360 launch. Resistance was always a more high-profile series because it released during the holidays.

Shadow Fall stands a chance to be one of the best-selling Killzone games around, IMO. The game's quality is another issue, of course.
 
E

Eusis

Member
IrishNinja said:
okay, name me a good 3rd console that didn't have a big mess surrounding it, i'm curious
Click to expand...
Factor in the SG-1000 for Sega, lump all variants of the Master System together, and we have the Genesis as the soaring example of a 3rd console done right. Though it had the 32X in the end so man, who knows.

More realistically I think it follows a specific trajectory: introduction (that may be successful) success (continued success if already successful), then hubris from their success. SEGA thought they'd be fine just forcing the Saturn out ahead of time, Nintendo... actually got hit hardest with hubris with the rise of the Genesis, so the N64 was really more making a bad call based on the technology forecast but you still had Hiroshi Yamauchi saying all sorts of crazy crap, though given his history I think that was really just the way he was.
 
E

Eusis

Member
FateBreaker said:
*rolls eyes*
Click to expand...
I do suspect that if Sony fails with the PS4 then either the whole industry is doomed/shifted to mobile and PC indies, or Nintendo somehow rises and dominates all with the Wii U. I'd be amazed if the X1 was still a success after all this buzz, at least a serious one, so I'm more inclined to think if the PS4 fails then the whole higher end dedicated console model is doomed sooner than many of us expected.
 
R

Rogue_Ledr

Banned
4th console curse? What 4th console curse? Never heard of that.

Some people might say that the 4th console can be cursed because of things like the Dreamcast. However, the DC wasn't really a failure in and of itself. It was just that Saturn was such a spectacular failure that the Dreamcast never had a real chance.
 
C

cosmicblizzard

Banned
Router said:
There's no such thing as a curse. The fact that so many people seem eager to align hocus with technology here is baffling.
Click to expand...

I figured people were just using the whole "third console curse" thing as a catch-all term for the problems surrounding the 3rd console, a lot of which stems from arrogance, not that it's an actual curse.

The Madden curse is closer to the "hocus" stuff.
 
IrishNinja

IrishNinja

Member
Eusis said:
Factor in the SG-1000 for Sega, lump all variants of the Master System together, and we have the Genesis as the soaring example of a 3rd console done right. Though it had the 32X in the end so man, who knows.
Click to expand...

ah, i always forget that one, never count it cause it didnt show up here, heh...agreed on some of your other points though.
 
U

Usobuko

Banned
The most important thing for Sony is to launch PS4 around the same time as Xbox One.

What we have seen now is Microsoft self-destructing in an unprecedented manner. It was so bad to the extent that online multi-player behind PS+ pay wall was readily accepted.
 
M

Mass Effect

Member
onQ123 said:
There is no 3rd console curse.
Click to expand...

Obviously there is no actual curse, but there has been a high frequency of companies failing [comparatively] on their 3rd console releases.

Sega -> Saturn
Nintendo -> 64
Sony -> PS3

If MS "fails" with the One, it's safe to say that it's a reoccurring theme.
 
G

Game Guru

Member
I'm going to post my observations on the particular topic of the third console curse... It was something I posted in an earlier thread when commenting on the Xbox One.

Game Guru said:
If I could perhaps comment on something we know of... The third console curse... Supposedly the third console of a company will invariably be a failure compared to previous versions. Now this is not true for everything as the only real success of Atari and Sega were the Atari 2600 and the Genesis/Mega Drive respectfully, but I plan to look at it in regards to Nintendo, Sony, and Microsoft. The third console curse affected Nintendo and Sony because the very advantages they brought to the gaming industry became the albatross around their necks by their third console.

It was Nintendo's ability to control third-parties and keep them from making the crappy games that led to the North American video game crash that made them able to succeed where Atari had failed. However, it was that exact ability that drove third-parties away when the Genesis and later the PS1 showed up.

It was also Nintendo's desire to court the causal gamer that led to the success that the Wii had, but with the Wii U, Nintendo's sixth console, that same desire led to the core gamer vanishing and the casual gamers ended up being too fickle to base profits on.

It was PlayStation's urge to push multimedia formats that helped lead to the success of the PS1 and PS2. However, it was that exact pushing that led to Blu-Ray's inclusion into the PS3 and causing the price to be as high as it was allowing Nintendo and Microsoft to reclaim some of the market.

So what made the Xbox line a success? Xbox Live... It was the first popular online video game console. Microsoft was the company pushing online in the console space compared to Sony and Nintendo. Now with the Xbox One, we are being shown the disadvantages of an online console.

The third console curse is not really a magical curse, but instead just the observation that the very selling points of a console line will invariably show its downsides by the third console of the company.
Click to expand...
 
goldenpp72

goldenpp72

Member
There is nothing really odd about most of this stuff.. Pattern wise, it's just a matter of how fluid the industry is, a lot of luck and guessing goes into these consoles i'm sure, trying to brute force the best of the best results in a bloated console that loses you billions (Xbox) so you probably need to predict a game plan and hope yours is the best.

Nes released to no competition and, due to revolutionary game designs, revived the dead industry, meanwhile due to Nazi like business practices other companies did not develop on other consoles that released, and in combination to Nintendos amazing lineup and that, killed all competition. Nintendo did NOT want to release a new console, it wasn't until the Genesis became a mild threat that they decided to fight back, and they ultimately won that fight but at a loss of their overall user base. Nintendo then partnered with Sony, that fell through, Sony was born into the console industry and Nintendo made a horrific bet using Cartridges, which killed them.

Gamecube didn't learn anything from the N64 design, it was basically N64 redux with an again limited format, an unusual controller, as well as releasing a year after a monster console (PS2). Wii was then a full on attempt to disrupt the norm and became a huge console when combining Zelda and Wii Sports, and due to typical arrogance, they released the Wii U with nothing and are getting trampled.

Each console has a robust history of failures and stupid decisions, Xbox was so bloated it would sink most companies and gave them very little leverage, MS basically stumbled into an accidental 'victory' for the short term with 360 being cheaper and comparable to the PS3, as well as coming first. Sega is nothing but bad decisions outside of the Genesis, and Sony while consistent, had such a deadlock on this industry for 2 consecutive generations that I think they figured they were basically the DVD of the gaming industry.

This is probably a bunch of common sense stupid shit, but it kind of shows that while some decisions are good (such as much of what Sony has done with the PS series) a few bad decisions, timing, and some luck can mean all the world of difference. The only really confusing part about it to me, is why console companies haven't figured out that each new generation is anyone's game, not having your A game ready with guns blazing seems really foolish, yet every single company has done it.
 
H

hatchx

Banned
Because X1 is a non-factor for so many, they'll have to buy PS4s for all the great multiplatform games.

The Ps4 launch line up is pretty boring, I'll cave when Evil Within and Wither 3 hit.
 
B

border

Member
Is the PS3 really cursed? There's a pretty good chance it will end up outselling the 360 worldwide.

What does the curse even mean? Just something vague like "Your 3rd console will not do as well as your previous one"?
 
E

Eusis

Member
hatchx said:
Because X1 is a non-factor for so many, they'll have to buy PS4s for all the great multiplatform games.

The Ps4 launch line up is pretty boring, I'll cave when Evil Within and Wither 3 hit.
Click to expand...
I admittedly AM kind of worried we could see something akin to the Wii and we'll have shortages for quite awhile. Then again there were PS2 shortages for quite awhile but I was able to get one just fine in time for fall 2001, so it's probably not something I should sweat.
border said:
Is the PS3 really cursed? There's a pretty good chance it will end up outselling the 360 worldwide.

What does the curse even mean? Just something vague like "Your 3rd console will not do as well as your previous one"?
Click to expand...
Honestly, the PS3 is sort of like a weird amalgam of SNES/Saturn here with the 360 being more like the Genesis on steroids. A year later (like SNES) and way more expensive (like Saturn), Genesis/360 ended up getting a cool factor and becoming more popular, but the NES/Playstation still kept its brand value and climbed up to almost half the marketshare, and int he long run may well surpass its now relevant rival... while in Japan that rival was never all that relevant anyway. Different in Europe, but then I guess Genesis/360 both dominated the UK?

X1 meanwhile looks to be the Saturn as run by Ubisoft when they ported ACII to PC.
 
graywolf323

graywolf323

Member
I don't think there's a fourth console curse as so much as Sega and Nintendo's fourth consoles ran up against the absolute juggernaut that was the PS2
 
ULTROS!

ULTROS!

People seem to like me because I am polite and I am rarely late. I like to eat ice cream and I really enjoy a nice pair of slacks.
4th console is where it's at compared to the 3rd:

Sega -> Dreamcast - became 3rd party
Nintendo -> Gamecube - sold terribly

I hope the PS4 breaks the cycle.
 
B

Busaiku

Member
PS3 wasn't exactly a disaster on the level N64.
Developers didn't leave en masse to make exclusives for other systems.

Support remained relatively stable, and thus it did well (outside of costing Sony tons of money).
 
S

Subliminal

Member
I don't think this was ever really because of the console, if it exists, which I doubt is the case it's more easily explained by complacency and manufacturers being out of touch with consumers after successful consoles. The real curse is caused by companies trying to deliver more of the same in a changing marketplace.

Nintendo saw CDs and decided to keep with Cartridges.
Sony saw MS's online shit and launched the Ps3 with terrible online.

There is no curse
 
G

GameplayWhore

Member
border said:
Is the PS3 really cursed? There's a pretty good chance it will end up outselling the 360 worldwide.
Click to expand...

But in terms of making money, the game division for Sony during the entirety of the PS3's lifetime is astonishingly down the hole. They sunk over a billion dollars per year of this generation, each year the equivalent (I speculate) of multiple Dreamcast craterings.
 
B

border

Member
GameplayWhore said:
But in terms of making money, the game division for Sony during the entirety of the PS3's lifetime is astonishingly down the hole. They sunk over a billion dollars per year of this generation, each year the equivalent (I speculate) of multiple Dreamcast craterings.
Click to expand...

If the curse is merely about making money rather than sales, then how does that apply to the N64? Nintendo made mad-crazy money during the N64 years.

At the same time, I think it's hard to deny that the PS3 and N64 were not bright spots for Sony and Nintendo respectively. It's just that the curse is incredibly vague (as I suppose most curses are). It all boils down to "Your third console will be a disappointing in one way or another". But if that is the case, then almost every console is cursed in some way or another. The SNES lost a ton of marketshare, the PS2 lost a ton of 3rd party exclusives, etc, etc.
 
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