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Ukraine/Russia conflict NEWS thread - Updates on the Ukrainian crisis.

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maharg

idspispopd
If Texas vote to leave why not let them?

You do realise that Scotland recently had a referendum to leave the UK?

You do realise South Sudan voted to separate from Sudan and they did?

Current international law on secession generally requires the consent of the national government, which was there in both those cases afaik (and the Quebec referendums of the 1980 and 1995 in Canada were seeking a basis to negotiate with the federal government). Generally speaking, unilateral declarations of independence are not recognized until they are long since defacto.

And it seems rather unlikely that Ukraine is going to agree to a referendum on the secession of its eastern regions while Russians are basically occupying it. Any referendum done under those conditions would probably not be recognized anyways, as the one done in Crimea is not generally recognized as valid for really good reasons.
 

chadskin

Member
Le Figaro reports Hollande's and Merkel's peace plan which they will discuss today with Putin includes the promise of "neutrality" of Ukraine (in other words, Ukraine would not join NATO and possibly not the EU as well) and of a federalization of Ukraine in order to freeze the conflict.

Hope that's not true.
 

Purkake4

Banned
"Strong" countries dictating to "weak" countries is exactly what Putin wants. Create a problem, force negotiations, get a favorable deal and undermine the last 70 years of progress made developing the international system all in one fell swoop.
 

Fiktion

Banned
Le Figaro reports Hollande's and Merkel's peace plan which they will discuss today with Putin includes the promise of "neutrality" of Ukraine (in other words, Ukraine would not join NATO and possibly not the EU as well) and of a federalization of Ukraine in order to freeze the conflict.

Hope that's not true.
Neutrality might be stomached, but federalization should be unacceptable.
 

gloriousd

Neo Member
Le Figaro reports Hollande's and Merkel's peace plan which they will discuss today with Putin includes the promise of "neutrality" of Ukraine (in other words, Ukraine would not join NATO and possibly not the EU as well) and of a federalization of Ukraine in order to freeze the conflict.

Hope that's not true.

I think Putin plays the Stalin card on European leaders and it works, again... Merkel and Hollande make the same mistake Churchill and Roosevelt made almost exactly 70 years ago, they think they can actually achieve something with words. In the meantime Putin dismantles the last 70 years of peace in Europe.

I don't know whether it was mentioned in this thread but I've heard from a friend that in Lithuania people received pamphlets from the government explaining them how to act under enemy occupation...
I will go even further, I think quite a lot of people living in the West don't understand how serious this entire crisis is and what it possibly means not only for Ukraine, Baltic Countries, Finland or Poland but for entire Europe.

I know I probably sound a bit hysterical but I have a very uncanny feeling when I'm reading the news on what happens in Ukraine. I mean, it sounds terrifyingly familiar.
 

Funky Papa

FUNK-Y-PPA-4
Le Figaro reports Hollande's and Merkel's peace plan which they will discuss today with Putin includes the promise of "neutrality" of Ukraine (in other words, Ukraine would not join NATO and possibly not the EU as well) and of a federalization of Ukraine in order to freeze the conflict.

Hope that's not true.

This is shameful. With that said, there's a chance it may work. Actually, it may even make sense.

As far as federalization goes, it is clear that Ukraine can't function as a centralised state given the fact that some regions are populated by ethnicities other than Ukrainian. A degree of autonomy may make that work. Either way, trying to tie up an ethnically diverse country into a centralised state always leads to disaster. See: Yugoslavia. Switzerland is an excellent example of a federalised state with clearly divided ethnicities, and to a degree, Spain.

Ukraine would just need to make sure to avoid Russian interference in national and local politics; they allowed that during the past two decades out of goodwill and corruption, and we know where that lead them.

As far as neutrality goes, that may probably be the most repugnant part of the deal. But both Ukraine and the Western world need to understand that right now that alignment Ukraine is close to impossible. With the country engulfed by war and Puting licking his chops, NATO wouldn't allow Ukraine to get membership out of security concerns. Not at least until the situation returns to normal.

As for the European Union, right now Ukraine is shattered by war, marred with corruption and at the very brink of bankrupcy. It will take them two, maybe three decades until EU membership can be seriously discussed, and by then Putin should be out of the picture. Either case, by the time Ukraine has rebuilt itself, global politics may have changed enough to allow them to join the EU. The question should be: why would Ukraine want to join the same bunch of cowards who left them hang out to dry?

As far as I'm concerned, we should supply them with modern antiarmour equipment and countermeasures. We don't even have to use NATO materiel if we want to keep plausible deniability. There are a number of NATO-aligned states that could supply modern and capable Russian-made materiel that could be of great use to Ukraine. Give them some Kornets and Fagots, thrown in some long range artillery systems. Let's give them a real chance to resist and damage Russian's economy enough. Negotiation terms may be more agreeable for Ukraine then.
 

chadskin

Member
EXTRA Merkel plays down expectations over Moscow visit
German Chancellor Angela Merkel is playing down the chances of securing a truce in eastern Ukraine when she and French President Francois Hollande meet Russian leader Vladimir Putin later in the day.

"We know it is completely open whether we'll manage to achieve a truce through these talks. We don't know whether it will happen today or if further talks will be required. We don't know if these will be short talks today in Moscow or long ones, or if they will be final talks," she has told reporters in Berlin ahead of her departure.

"The situation is in flux. All we can do is apply every effort to find a solution that ends the conflict, and foremost the bloodshed."

Merkel has also rejected claims she had raised the issue of territorial concessions, saying: "As German chancellor I would never, over the head of another country, in this case Ukraine, get involved in territorial issues."
http://www.dpa-international.com/ne...xpectations-over-moscow-visit-a-44159286.html

Roadmap for the coming days:
Kerry is to meet Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov at a security conference in Munich on Saturday, ahead of Obama holding a "very important" meeting with Merkel at the White House on Monday, Kerry said.
http://news.yahoo.com/both-sides-agree-humanitarian-truce-around-key-ukraine-082737913.html
 

Funky Papa

FUNK-Y-PPA-4
Merkel has also rejected claims she had raised the issue of territorial concessions, saying: "As German chancellor I would never, over the head of another country, in this case Ukraine, get involved in territorial issues."
Hard to believe after seeing her attempts to mingle with Greece's sovereignty by interfering in the voting process.
 

antonz

Member
I think they know its not going to work . All of a sudden a ton of diplomatic cards being moved around.

was some indication NYTimes sources say Russia wants Ukraine cut from further meetings. It would be Germany and France only and Russia is demanding a Transnistria situation. Germany and France are apparently still demanding Minsk agreement be met.
 

Mully

Member
I think they know its not going to work . All of a sudden a ton of diplomatic cards being moved around.

was some indication NYTimes sources say Russia wants Ukraine cut from further meetings. It would be Germany and France only and Russia is demanding a Transnistria situation. Germany and France are apparently still demanding Minsk agreement be met.

_70151203_large-lead.jpg
 

Purkake4

Banned
This is shameful. With that said, there's a chance it may work. Actually, it may even make sense.

As far as federalization goes, it is clear that Ukraine can't function as a centralised state given the fact that some regions are populated by ethnicities other than Ukrainian. A degree of autonomy may make that work. Either way, trying to tie up an ethnically diverse country into a centralised state always leads to disaster. See: Yugoslavia. Switzerland is an excellent example of a federalised state with clearly divided ethnicities, and to a degree, Spain.

Ukraine would just need to make sure to avoid Russian interference in national and local politics; they allowed that during the past two decades out of goodwill and corruption, and we know where that lead them.

As far as neutrality goes, that may probably be the most repugnant part of the deal. But both Ukraine and the Western world need to understand that right now that alignment Ukraine is close to impossible. With the country engulfed by war and Puting licking his chops, NATO wouldn't allow Ukraine to get membership out of security concerns. Not at least until the situation returns to normal.

As for the European Union, right now Ukraine is shattered by war, marred with corruption and at the very brink of bankrupcy. It will take them two, maybe three decades until EU membership can be seriously discussed, and by then Putin should be out of the picture. Either case, by the time Ukraine has rebuilt itself, global politics may have changed enough to allow them to join the EU. The question should be: why would Ukraine want to join the same bunch of cowards who left them hang out to dry?

As far as I'm concerned, we should supply them with modern antiarmour equipment and countermeasures. We don't even have to use NATO materiel if we want to keep plausible deniability. There are a number of NATO-aligned states that could supply modern and capable Russian-made materiel that could be of great use to Ukraine. Give them some Kornets and Fagots, thrown in some long range artillery systems. Let's give them a real chance to resist and damage Russian's economy enough. Negotiation terms may be more agreeable for Ukraine then.
You're not wrong, the solution for Ukraine to work as a country again won't be easy or come fast. At the same time, one must consider what the broad implications will be when Russia can just annex bits of its neighbors, stoke a deadly civil war and make EU pick up the pieces. Not to mention forcing neutrality on sovereign countries, because they might choose something you don't agree with.

On the bright side it does look like Ukraine is finally finding its backbone as a nation, as well as some other less fortunate post-Soviet countries.
 

Xando

Member
That's precisely what's going on.

Unless you mean Russia going apeshit on the EU, which is not going to happen for a plurality of excellent reasons.

So what are you proposing? Giving Ukraine weapons?

They might push the seperatists back but you can be damn sure as soon as the seperatist are getting problems Putin will push through to Kiev opening another front. What then, we send our troops?
 

Funky Papa

FUNK-Y-PPA-4
So what are you proposing? Giving Ukraine weapons?

They might push the seperatists back but you can be damn sure as soon as the seperatist are getting problems Putin will push through to Kiev opening another front. What then, we send our troops?

That may probe hard once they start filling their empty bank vaults with the corpses of Russian soldiers.
 

Xando

Member
That may probe hard once they start filling their empty bank vaults with the corpses of Russian soldiers.

They still have more than 400k soldiers on the western front, if you think that'll stop them you're in for a rude awakening. Putin still has >80% approval with the russian public, the kremlin has successfully convinced the russian public that the west wages war in ukraine.
The radicals in russian politics won't allow putin to retreat, they will push for full on escalation (in ukraine) and as soon as you know it you have the russian airforce bombing kiev.

It's too late for military support from the west. That should have happened a year ago. Now it only will escalate things.
I've read a lot of articles outlining how this entire episode shows a fundamental reshaping of the EU.

Normally, France and the UK are the two major EU powers who take the lead on diplomacy. Germany has always let France lead in that area, for a whole variety of reasons. The fact that Merkel is now in the driving seat indicates just how weak Hollande is right now, and the shift that the Eurocrisis has wrought on the traditional european approach.
This has nothing to do with the euro crisis really. Merkel always had the best relationship to Putin in the west.
 

Maledict

Member
Merkel and her pet midget Hollande making me ashamed one more time of being European.

I've read a lot of articles outlining how this entire episode shows a fundamental reshaping of the EU.

Normally, France and the UK are the two major EU powers who take the lead on diplomacy. Germany has always let France lead in that area, for a whole variety of reasons. The fact that Merkel is now in the driving seat indicates just how weak Hollande is right now, and the shift that the Eurocrisis has wrought on the traditional european approach.
 

markot

Banned
The west clearly wont back Ukraine to any large degree militarily.

Beyond that, they have no real interest in Ukraine in Nato or the EU to a large degree either. Ukraine is a mess economically, and has been for years. It offers them nothing but worse relations with Russia.
 

Engell

Member
Merkel and her pet midget Hollande making me ashamed one more time of being European.

I agree 100% with you, even if Putin accepts any kind of deal with them, its not like he is going to hold his end of the agreement. He will still continue to infiltrate and in the end annex what he wants. Its like giving a little spoiled retarded boy his candy after he beats you up.. and then to teach him a lesson continue to give him more candy.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Mistral ships are in Russian hands before the end of 2015.
 
I agree 100% with you, even if Putin accepts any kind of deal with them, its not like he is going to hold his end of the agreement. He will still continue to infiltrate and in the end annex what he wants. Its like giving a little spoiled retarded boy his candy after he beats you up.. and then to teach him a lesson continue to give him more candy.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Mistral ships are in Russian hands before the end of 2015.

Was just thinking this. Assuming all the stuff happens like federalization . What would stop LNR and DNR from getting much more closer to Russia and/or stop infilrations in Ukrainian territory, or even give Russia more ways to influence Ukraine politics ?
 

Wereroku

Member
Was just thinking this. Assuming all the stuff happens like federalization . What would stop LNR and DNR from getting much more closer to Russia and/or stop infilrations in Ukrainian territory, or even give Russia more ways to influence Ukraine politics ?

Nothing. If they give those territories sovereignty they will just vote to become part of Russia within a year. Basically this whole conflict won't end until Russia has what it wants or someone else gets involved. Several hardliners in Russia have stated that they have the rights to the old USSR territory and should be working harder to reclaim it.

A federal state doesn't mean its members get to do (or vote) whatever the heck they want. See: Germany, America.

True but it's not like they care about what the laws are now.
 
A federal state doesn't mean its members get to do (or vote) whatever the heck they want. See: Germany, America.

Technically it is true (even Russia is a federation supposedly :) ), but a stable federation is not the reason why Russia wants this to happen to Ukraine. They just want to make Crimea scenario more manageable in other regions of Ukraine...
 

Funky Papa

FUNK-Y-PPA-4
Technically it is true (even Russia is a federation supposedly :) ), but a stable federation is not the reason why Russia wants this to happen to Ukraine. They just want to make Crimea scenario more manageable in other regions of Ukraine...

What would stop Russia from pulling another Crimea? Holding a referendum and following "the will of the people".

Tragically, Putin being a dick is something that's going to happen either way.
 
Nothing. If they give those territories sovereignty they will just vote to become part of Russia within a year. Basically this whole conflict won't end until Russia has what it wants or someone else gets involved. Several hardliners in Russia have stated that they have the rights to the old USSR territory and should be working harder to reclaim it.



True but it's not like they care about what the laws are now.

Exactly.

Federalization may not give the east a lot of control( depends on the how much power they can get), but they can influence the politics and the nation will be divided ideology. Russia can just pull a Crimea and do a 'referendum' and have the LNR and DNR join Russia. Because there will be very little way of Ukraine stopping them if they decide to do that. Additionally, still they can infiltrate Ukraine in other ways. Russia and the separatists can 'agree' a ceasefire, but that doesn't mean they have to follow it or follow it for long. I'm starting to see this conflict is less about military victories and more about who is more willing to back down and/or give in to demands.
 

Mrmartel

Banned
I feel like the west (mainly America) and Russia have completely different worldviews that will never be in peaceful co-existence. The west is presuming that liberal democracy is a permanent force for the world and Russia is just trolling their path towards this unstoppable way of life. Russia on the other hand thinks the west is extremely weak in their resolve and belief in said governing system. They believe their system, of Nationalism, with a sprinkle of Eastern Christianity and a reduction in freedoms that criticized either one, will last longer and be better for them (and Europe)

I can't see any good outcomes coming from this at all. From best case scenario of Russian becoming Isolated and more benign. Or possibly even a global contributer of democracy and trade (lol). Worse case, actual conquests of European countries, a division of the traditional West and possibly even all out war (between Nuclear countries, ugh)

http://www.the-american-interest.com/2015/01/27/in-it-to-win-it/
 
Whole thing is a joke. But no matter what the outcome is, for the next 30 years or so Ukraine will know who the biggest enemy is... And that there are no friends...

This wont decide about the fate of the Ukraine. Its just some small lead into a bigger conversation with everyone.
 

Moon

Banned
I really have no faith in any countries other than the Anglo derived countries.

France and Germany, even after all the shit Russia has thrown at them still wishes to continue this farce.

Call Putin out on his shit publicly. He claims Russia isnt involved but yet here we are, sitting around trying to convince Russia to stop.

The Anglosphere (as a whole, the US, UK, Canada and Australia) need to ignore Europes bs about not having them for a neighbour and staying out of it and put some SERIOUS pressure on Russia.

Appeasement will not work, give Putin an inch and he will take a mile

Arm Ukraine and show Russia this shit doesnt fly.
 
Sure, but you have to keep in mind that that's not the way Ukrainians see this. History always repeats itself...


Jb2yjnw.png

Shit. I didnt thought of it.

Well i sure hope it wont repeat itself. I have faith in Merkel (She is a woman afterall. And not some Psychopath.)

Arm Ukraine and show Russia this shit doesnt fly.

Arm Ukraine is the worst thing to do here. Just imagine USA sending weapons to Ukraine. Russia will be pissed and this could lead to some serious Nuclear War shit.

Nope... i dont wanna have another war.
 

Moon

Banned
Shit. I didnt thought of it.

Well i sure hope it wont repeat itself. I have faith in Merkel.



Arm Ukraine is the worst thing to do here. Just imagine USA sending weapons to Ukraine. Russia will be pissed and this could lead to some serious Nuclear War shit.

Nope... i dont wanna have another war.


And where does it stop?

When Russia pushes into and claims parts of Belarus, the Baltics, Finland?

Bending over backwards or turning a blind eye is not helping, the threat of nuclear war....WHY does the west have let Russia get its way?

The west is not perfect but we are a damn sight better than what Russia brings to the table.
 
Arm Ukraine is the worst thing to do here. Just imagine USA sending weapons to Ukraine. Russia will be pissed and this could lead to some serious Nuclear War shit.

Nope... i dont wanna have another war.

Nobody wants a war, but these appeasements of an insane person are only buying time for him. In my view this is no different from what happened in WW2. Treaty after treaty and everything only got worse...

The question is: What does Putin want? He wants Soviet Union back. Ukraine is not enough for him. He needs a huge chunk of Europe back as well? Is there any way this can happen without WW3?
 
And where does it stop?

When Russia pushes into and claims parts of Belarus, the Baltics, Finland?

Bending over backwards or turning a blind eye is not helping, the threat of nuclear war....WHY does the west have let Russia get its way?

The west is not perfect but we are a damn sight better than what Russia brings to the table.

And have Greece, China, North Korea and Russia attack us? First Talk... then attack.

Nobody wants a war, but these appeasements of an insane person are only buying time for him. In my view this is no different from what happened in WW2. Treaty after treaty and everything only got worse...

The question is: What does Putin want? He wants Soviet Union back. Ukraine is not enough for him. He needs a huge chunk of Europe back as well? Is there any way this can happen without WW3?

Those questions are good. And the problem is... those politicians still havent asked them. Only if we know what he wants we will see some change in the politics.
 

Xando

Member
And where does it stop?

When Russia pushes into and claims parts of Belarus, the Baltics, Finland?

Bending over backwards or turning a blind eye is not helping, the threat of nuclear war....WHY does the west have let Russia get its way?

The west is not perfect but we are a damn sight better than what Russia brings to the table.
Comparing ukraine (which we europeans have no treaty with) to finland and the baltics who not only are NATO but EU members makes no sense. Putin knows he can't fuck with any eu countries. That would be economic and military suicide.
 
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