• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

Ukraine/Russia conflict NEWS thread - Updates on the Ukrainian crisis.

Status
Not open for further replies.

It's been "fun" times in Russia with oil prices falling. KGB and army officers (responsible for Donbass and Crimea) have also been dying left and right. One of the examples below.

Russian GRU military spy chief Igor Sergun dies

Russia also imposed sanctions on Ukraine, which undoubtedly will be damaging to Ukrainian economy, but if Ukrainian business manages to adjust to the EU rules this might work in Ukrainian favor. Ukraine just needs to survive 2016 as EU association is kicking off.
 

Purkake4

Banned
It's been "fun" times in Russia with oil prices falling. KGB and army officers (responsible for Donbass and Crimea) have also been dying left and right. One of the examples below.

Russian GRU military spy chief Igor Sergun dies

Russia also imposed sanctions on Ukraine, which undoubtedly will be damaging to Ukrainian economy, but if Ukrainian business manages to adjust to the EU rules this might work in Ukrainian favor. Ukraine just needs to survive 2016 as EU association is kicking off.
It's going to be interesting with the Dutch referendum on the trade treaty coming up.

Edit: the date is 6 April.
 
Speaking of referendum. Russia is going all in. Just look at the production values of the video supposedly from Ukrainian nationalist battalion. :)

Within few seconds it becomes obvious that it's FAKE because somehow they couldn't even find a native Ukrainian speaker. But the fact that they went through all this trouble for a video that was taken apart almost immediately is insane!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c5YJGKs3AUo

EDIT: They just removed it. Youtube is getting good at catching Russian trolls. Basically the video depicted random people in Ukrainian army uniform burning Dutch flag. (Was uploaded elsewhere, link updated)

ctdsYD4.jpg
 

Kabouter

Member
Best thing is that's not even the present Dutch flag either. What they're holding appears to be this. So they're a bit out of date. Only extreme right lunatics seem to ever use that flag here these days.
 
It's sad that all details from what happened 2 years ago are coming to the light but all the pro-Russian posters disappeared. Below is an interview with Putin's representative in Crimea (that's official position). He actually acknowledges that they threatened Ukrainian president if he was going to fly into Crimea (when it was still controlled by Ukrainian government).

It's only few of dozens of recent acknowledgments by Russian officials that whole thing was orchestrated. Even "peaceful protesters" who were blocking Ukrainian army in Crimea are now being matched with Russian soldiers...

We let Turchinov know that he won't land in Crimea (RUSSIAN)
 
Is there still violent conflict happening in eastern Ukraine?

Yes, every day. and it appears that The Donetsk republic refuses to allow elections as agreed upon in the Minsk agreements.

I wonder if Russia will apply some pressure on their proxy, but i'm guessing not.
 
Hey Gaf, does anyone have up to date information about the percentage of ethnic Russians in Ukraine? The census from 2001 has it at 17%, but the wiki page of Demographics of Ukraine says 8.1%. It claims to be the number for 2015, but has no source as far as I can see however. In the actual texts and diagrams it also refers to the 2001 census. The 8.1% is mentioned under ''nationality'' in the box on the upper right side of the page. If anyone has any recent number I would love to know, thank you.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Ukraine
 
Hey Gaf, does anyone have up to date information about the percentage of ethnic Russians in Ukraine? The census from 2001 has it at 17%, but the wiki page of Demographics of Ukraine says 8.1%. It claims to be the number for 2015, but has no source as far as I can see however. In the actual texts and diagrams it also refers to the 2001 census. The 8.1% is mentioned under ''nationality'' in the box on the upper right side of the page. If anyone has any recent number I would love to know, thank you.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Ukraine

I don't think Ukraine has done full census since 2001. 17% in 2001 included Crimea (which was 58% Russian). 8.1% without Crimea included seems accurate, but there's no more up to date census to support it. The map below from Wikipedia page helps to illustrate this.


Ukraine_ethnic_2001_by_regions_and_rayons.PNG
 

Purkake4

Banned
I don't think Ukraine has done full census since 2001. 17% in 2001 included Crimea (which was 58% Russian). 8.1% without Crimea included seems accurate, but there's no more up to date census to support it. The map below from Wikipedia page helps to illustrate this.


Ukraine_ethnic_2001_by_regions_and_rayons.PNG
Is the map by 51% of the population per area?

There is also the whole other kettle of fish with the language vs ethnicity thing.
 
Is the map by 51% of the population per area?

There is also the whole other kettle of fish with the language vs ethnicity thing.

Yes, it's by 51%.

The language is a bit different, but it's highly subjective. Below is a map of "Russian speakers", but in reality Kiev is 80% Russian speaking vs 24% on this map. People consider their "native language" Ukrainian, but speak Russian all the time...

Ukraine_census_2001_Russian.svg
 

Purkake4

Banned
Yes, it's by 51%.

The language is a bit different, but it's highly subjective. Below is a map of "Russian speakers", but in reality Kiev is 80% Russian speaking vs 24% on this map. People consider their "native language" Ukrainian, but speak Russian all the time...

Ukraine_census_2001_Russian.svg
Thanks, not sure what the poster needs it for, but it's at least good to know about it and realize that it's very hard to draw a clear line anywhere.
 
Thanks, not sure what the poster needs it for, but it's at least good to know about it and realize that it's very hard to draw a clear line anywhere.

It even more complicated than both of these maps make it out to be… Overwhelming majority of Ukraine speaks Russian regardless of the nationality. In addition to that you see people constantly switching the language they use. For example currently it’s popular to speak Ukrainian in Kiev, but mostly among well-educated population. Poorer population in rural areas is actually more likely to grow up speaking Ukrainian but when they move into bigger cities they switch to Russian. In addition to that majority of TV, radio, newspapers, magazines, and books are in Russian. It’s much cheaper to import Russian content than producing Ukrainian content. This remains the case even as Ukraine is pretty much in war with Russia.

The one positive that happened over the past few years is that there’s been a movement among popular icons to try to talk Ukrainian (i.e. football players and athletes). But even then it hardly 10% who actually speak Ukrainian or even try…
 
I'll try to post more updates on the situation in Ukraine.

On the Savchenko situation:

Apparently Putin wanted to exchange her for the real "Lord of War" Viktor Bout and a drug trafficking Russian pilot:
U.S. Not Interested in Exchanging Savchenko for Russian Arms Dealer Bout | News | The Moscow Times

President Vladimir Putin might like to trade convicted Ukrainian pilot Nadezhda Savchenko for Russian nationals imprisoned in the United States, but such an exchange is not being considered by the White House.

The fact that the Kremlin is negotiating the exchange of Savchenko for two Russian nationals currently held in U.S. prisons was voiced by Interfax's source Tuesday. The report was immediately denied by U.S. officials in Moscow and Kiev.

Spokesman for the U.S. Embassy in Moscow Will Stevens told the RBC news website on Tuesday that Washington was not even considering the exchange of Savchenko for Russian nationals imprisoned in the United States.

U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Jeffrey Payette called the offer “ridiculous,” the RIA Novosti news agency reported.

The United States insists that Savchenko has been convicted illegally and should be released without any conditions — according to Minsk agreements.

The Kremlin's maneuver to trade Savchenko was serious, foreign policy expert Vladimir Frolov told The Moscow Times on Tuesday. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov brought up the Kremlin's interest in releasing Russian nationals from the United States during U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry’s visit to Moscow last week.

...

Meanwhile Putin apparently doesn't give a fuck about 2 Russian speznas caught in Ukraine - which Ukraine is open to exchange for Savchenko (as far as I understand). On this also see:

Putin admits Russian military presence in Ukraine for first time | World news | The Guardian

Vladimir Putin has for the first time admitted the presence of Russian military specialists in east Ukraine.

Russia has repeatedly denied a military presence in the conflict, despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary. But the Russian president conceded there were military intelligence officers operating in the country in a marathon press conference on Thursday.

Asked by a Ukrainian reporter an hour into the briefing about two Russian military intelligence officers captured by Kiev and currently on trial in Ukraine, Putin said: “We never said there were not people there who carried out certain tasks including in the military sphere.” He insisted this was not the same as regular Russian troops.

...

More recent news on said soldiers: Lawyer for Russian officer in Ukraine found buried in farm - The Washington Post



On the front situation:

The hottest spot is currently north of Donetsk:
@OSCE

Latest from @OSCE_SMM monitors #Ukraine: Rise in ceasefire violations around Donetsk city & Yasynuvata-Avdiivka area http://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/230206

The last video of combat that I have seen from that area. Posted by Russian agitprop channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Got1UPiKSPg (seems legit though).

OSCE visited this place today(?): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rNX0rgQIIvo

As for OSCE: A very well respected German journalist, citing a Russian newspaper:
Golineh Atai
(translated) Kommersant (ru newspaper) citing Western diplomats: As per OSCE separatists cause 80% of the ceasefire breaches



On the economic situation in Ukraine:


Political Stability in the Balance as Ukraine Ousts Top Prosecutor - The New York Times

owing to pressure from international donors, the Ukrainian Parliament voted on Tuesday to remove a prosecutor general who had clung to power for months despite visible signs of corruption.

But in a be-careful-what-you-wish-for moment, veteran observers of Ukrainian politics said that the prosecutor, Viktor Shokin, had played an important role in balancing competing political interests, helping maintain stability during a treacherous era in the divided country’s history.

....
 
Thanks for the replies guys. We are voting for the EU association treaty with Ukraine next week, so I am trying to understand more about Ukraine. Have you discussed the treaty in this thread? When it became clear that the Netherlands was probably going to say no, many politicians said it would be a disaster for Ukraine and the EU, but now it seems like it does not matter much what the Netherlands decides. If the treaty is struck down because of us, the trade agreements can apparently still continue (since trade is EU jurisdiction and not national) and Ukraine will slowly move closer to EU laws/regulations anyway because it is in their own interest.
 

daxy

Member
Thanks for the replies guys. We are voting for the EU association treaty with Ukraine next week, so I am trying to understand more about Ukraine. Have you discussed the treaty in this thread? When it became clear that the Netherlands was probably going to say no, many politicians said it would be a disaster for Ukraine and the EU, but now it seems like it does not matter much what the Netherlands decides. If the treaty is struck down because of us, the trade agreements can apparently still continue (since trade is EU jurisdiction and not national) and Ukraine will slowly move closer to EU laws/regulations anyway because it is in their own interest.

Right. The association agreement is merely a formalized means to closer economic ties and approximation of EU aquis. It's not like it's impossible to reach the same ends through more comprehensive action plans in the context of Eastern Partnership/ENP.

As a side note, the Dutch PM stated that he is against Ukrainian accession to the EU because he believes Ukraine needs to maintain a working relationship with Russia, considering their common historical origin and ties. But it's not like it would happen in the next 20 odd years anyway.

http://www.nu.nl/politiek/4238965/rutte-wil-oekraine-nooit-in-europese-unie.html
 

Kabouter

Member
The Prime Minister's statement annoys me to an incredible degree. Not because I think Ukraine should be in the EU, but because of the suggestion that EU membership must mean poor relations with Russia. Why? It's completely on Russia to ruin relations in such a(n unlikely) scenario, there's nothing inevitable about poor relations. Plus, a shared history is more important in his mind than the desires of the people? Some liberal.
 

accel

Member
The Prime Minister's statement annoys me to an incredible degree. Not because I think Ukraine should be in the EU, but because of the suggestion that EU membership must mean poor relations with Russia. Why? It's completely on Russia to ruin relations in such a(n unlikely) scenario, there's nothing inevitable about poor relations. Plus, a shared history is more important in his mind than the desires of the people? Some liberal.

The closer Ukraine is to the EU, the poorer relations with Russia. It *is* inevitable given what's been going on in Russia (and Ukraine, but predominantly Russia) for the last 10 years or so. The "must" is, unfortunately, true. Shared history is a victim of political ambitions - which is a tragedy.
 
So I don't have any particular sources but from what I've heard from some Ukrainian people I know is that they've said there has been a big build up of Russian forces on the border of Crimea and Ukraine in the past 24 hours. Tanks, helicopters, missile complexes, etc. Ukraine has also moved troops and equipment in response.

Here's also two videos of convoys:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yjGE6AHpyiw&ab_channel=AlimAydamak
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Ao9sUjnWB8&ab_channel=AlimAydamak

Here's also a video of a train moving military equipment from Krasnodar to Kerch ferry. https://twitter.com/Eire_QC/status/762978231104528385/video/1

No big news outlets reporting the increased activity on the border yet.
 
So I don't have any particular sources but from what I've heard from some Ukrainian people I know is that they've said there has been a big build up of Russian forces on the border of Crimea and Ukraine in the past 24 hours. Tanks, helicopters, missile complexes, etc. Ukraine has also moved troops and equipment in response.

Here's also two videos of convoys:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yjGE6AHpyiw&ab_channel=AlimAydamak
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Ao9sUjnWB8&ab_channel=AlimAydamak

Here's also a video of a train moving military equipment from Krasnodar to Kerch ferry. https://twitter.com/Eire_QC/status/762978231104528385/video/1

No big news outlets reporting the increased activity on the border yet.

Russia is saying that this is just training, but Ukrainian media does seem to be worried about this. To add fuel to the fire there was attempted assassination of the "LNR" leader few days ago. Russia is trying to blame it on Ukraine, but all the evidence points to infighting. Plus "LNR" is the least concerning area of the conflict.
 

vityaz

Member
Real or Russia manufacturing casus belli? With the build-up of forces just now and all...

Russia accuses Ukraine of armed Crimea incursion, says two killed

Russia's Federal Security Service said on Wednesday it had thwarted two armed Ukrainian attempts to get saboteurs into Crimea and dismantled a Ukrainian spy network inside the annexed peninsula.

The FSB accused Ukrainian special forces of planning to carry out terrorist attacks inside Crimea targeting critical infrastructure and said an FSB employee and a Russian soldier had been killed in clashes with Ukrainian forces.

"The aim of this subversive activity and terrorist acts was to destabilize the socio-political situation in the region ahead of preparations and the holding of elections," the FSB said in a statement.

Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 in an operation that triggered U.S. and European Union sanctions. Ukraine says it wants the strategically-important peninsula back; Moscow says the matter is settled and closed forever.

The FSB said it had tackled one group of saboteurs in an operation that spanned Saturday night and the early hours of Sunday morning and that an FSB employee had been killed while trying to detain them.

It said it had found 20 homemade explosive devices, ammunition, mines, grenades and specialized weapons it said were commonly used by Ukrainian special forces.

It said it had detained a Ukrainian spy network in the process, detaining citizens of both Ukraine and Russia.

In the early hours of Monday, it said Ukraine had attempted to infiltrate two groups of saboteurs into Crimea by force, but that the FSB and other agencies had repelled the attempts.

It said one Russian soldier had been killed in what it called a "massive fire fight" when Ukrainian forces with the support of armored vehicles had tried and failed to break into Crimea.

Security had been beefed up in areas popular with tourists, at key infrastructure, and along the border between Crimea and rump Ukraine, the FSB said.
 

Pancake Mix

Copied someone else's pancake recipe
Uh-oh, Russia is lying again and claiming that Ukraine is invading internationally recognized Ukrainian territory to boot. This could be Russia's ludicrous pretext for an invasion.
 
President Petro Poroshenko said he had instructed all military units along the de facto border with Crimea to be combat ready.

From what I'm aware of what happened today:

Putin convened with his security council on Crimea
Poroshenko convened with his security council on Crimea
Crimean head says US State Dept. behind terrorist attempts in Crimea
British embassy in Ukraine expresses concerns of heightened armed activity in occupied Crimea
Geoffrey Pyatt (U.S Ambassador to Ukraine) says U.S govt. has seen no evidence about Russia's allegations that Ukraine is amounting a "Crimea incursion"
Poroshenko ordered battle readiness on frontline of Donbas and Crimea (refer to above link)
Ukraine is busy consulting the UN Security Council
More convoys and equipment arriving (incl. Buyan-M-class corvettes that arrived at Sevastopol)
Russian troops in combat positions on the border
 
President Petro Poroshenko said he had instructed all military units along the de facto border with Crimea to be combat ready.

From what I'm aware of what happened today:

  • Putin convened with his security council on Crimea
  • Poroshenko convened with his security council on Crimea
  • Crimean head says US State Dept. behind terrorist attempts in Crimea
  • British embassy in Ukraine expresses concerns of heightened armed activity in occupied Crimea
  • Geoffrey Pyatt (U.S Ambassador to Ukraine) says U.S govt. has seen no evidence about Russia's allegations that Ukraine is amounting a "Crimea incursion"
    Poroshenko ordered battle readiness on frontline of Donbas and Crimea (refer to above link)
  • Ukraine is busy consulting the UN Security Council
  • More convoys and equipment arriving (incl. Buyan-M-class corvettes that arrived at Sevastopol)
  • Russian troops in combat positions on the border

Adding to / expanding on that list:



The fact that they stepped back from the Minsk accords clearly shows that Russians do not want any peace in Ukraine. They cannot afford for Ukraine to become peaceful and, god forbid, to do better than they do. That's the long-term strategy.

In the short term, I think the reason behind this mess is that the Kremlin dwarf made his bid on Trump and is now afraid of Hillary getting in office. Hence he's trying to up the ante and try to stack his deck during Obama's lame duck phase. So I think a land bridge to Crimea type of attack is on the table.

Now that Russia starts to play with open hands, any further of their advances should finally be met with substantial military support to Ukraine. Any open warfare in Ukraien should trigger ruinous, crippling sanctions for Russia. I'm talking cutting them off from SWIFT and embargoes on anything non-food / medicine.
I hope Hillary has the balls to do it.
 
Sanctions have passed. If Russia wants to openly invade they should be met with force. Have that NATO/EU rapid reaction force at least on standby to get Putin to pull back.
 
Sanctions have passed. If Russia wants to openly invade they should be met with force. Have that NATO/EU rapid reaction force at least on standby to get Putin to pull back.

I really doubt NATO would get involved directly.
Sanctions can still be upped quite a notch and we don't know how the Russian population would react to open war waged in Ukraine, however I fear that most of them are so head-fucked by now by state-owned TV that they'll cheer that on.

At the very least, NATO should shower Ukraine in TOWs and Stingers to make it at least costly for the Russians. Transfer of Soviet hardware (like Migs) from former Warsaw pact countries would also make sense and not require any extra training.

More sanctions could be coming anyways, btw.:

U.S. Considers Sanctions Against Russia in Response to Hacks of Democratic Groups - WSJ

WASHINGTON—U.S. officials are discussing whether to respond to computer breaches of Democratic Party organizations with economic sanctions against Russia, but they haven’t reached a decision about how to proceed, according to several people familiar with the matter.

Levying sanctions would require the White House to publicly accuse Russia, or Russian-backed hackers, of committing the breach and then leaking embarrassing information. The U.S. has frequently opted not to publicly release attribution for cyber-assaults, though Washington did openly accuse North Korea of carrying out an embarrassing breach of Sony Pictures Entertainment Inc. in 2014.

The Federal Bureau of Investigation and U.S. intelligence agencies have been studying the Democratic hacks, and several officials have signaled it was almost certainly carried out by Russian-affiliated hackers. Russia has denied any involvement, but several cybersecurity companies have also released reports tying the breach to Russian hackers.

...
 
@Schuldensuehner
#Russia default probability jumps, Ruble drops on Ukraine re-escalation & pol speculation after Putin dismissed ally


@StollmeyerEU
Western partners pull out of #NordStream2 #natgas pipe; #Gazprom to continue alone.

#EnergyUnion #Ukraine #Poland


HaHaSimpsons.gif

The latter news is actually pretty huge. I wonder if Putin's re-escalation made it finally happen.


/Ok, this is indeed very worrisome:

U.S. general calls on Russia to allow observers at military drills | Reuters

Russia should allow observers, including Western journalists, to attend upcoming military drills that could again put Ukraine on edge just as Russian President Vladimir Putin has sharpened his rhetoric, the commander of the U.S. Army in Europe told Reuters.

The comments by Lieutenant General Ben Hodges came as Ukraine accuses Russia of amassing more than 40,000 troops in Crimea, a Ukrainian peninsula seized by Moscow in 2014, and on the Ukrainian border.

...

"The Russians could really help alleviate and provide some stability if they had invited observers," Hodges said. "That would do a lot, frankly, to lower anxiety."

A U.S. intelligence official called the absence of observers at the Russian exercises "a worrisome development that we hope is just an oversight."

A spokeswoman at U.S. Army in Europe said Russia sent observers to the "Anakonda" exercises in Poland in June, which include some 31,000 forces from countries including Poland, the United States and other NATO allies and partners.

The Russian Defense Ministry said in December that its main military exercise for 2016 would test its Southern Military District troops, which now includes Crimea and Russia's Black Sea Fleet. It said the drills - called Caucasus-2016 - would take place in September.

The Russian Army's Red Star newspaper in January quoted Colonel-General Alexander Galkin as saying the exercise would check combat readiness and test how air, sea and land forces collaborated together.

"There's nothing wrong with an exercise. It's ... the lack of transparency," Hodges said.

...
 
Yep I just can't see how it's anything but an impending invasion into mainland now with the preparation the last few days. The amount of equipment Russia has been moving is serious. It's anyone's guess when they will make the move at this point it seems.

Again here are some vids of trains moving equipment (BMP's) that were seen today (more stuff arrived at Kerch port, more jets deployed at Sevastopol airport, S400s, etc).

https://streamable.com/qf0j
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZxqNRIJvdJY&ab_channel=IvanPetrov (this one is moving stuff to reopened base in Klintsy I believe)

That ISW map is good (only thing missing I think is that Russia was also doing "simulated attack" with air operations, similar to the tank ones in Moldova)
 
SBU and SZRU (Security Services of Ukraine and Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine) made a statement earlier today on Russian secret services plans to destabilise Ukraine starting from 15 November.

It is about creating unrest by staged and exploited/take advantage of activists/protesters, and also later in November pressure on the front line.

Example of one such local poster that is suspicious.

ck1I52r.jpg


Here is full statement in English. https://www.ssu.gov.ua/en/news/1/category/2/view/2238#sthash.j2RNGCEK.gzgQbHvI.dpbs

The Chief of the SBU National Statehood Protection Department Anatolii Dublyk read out the statement of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine (SZRU) concerning the plans of the Russian secret services to destabilize the situation in Ukraine.

The SBU and SZRU obtained intelligence data disclosing plans of the Russian Federation on organizing a large-scale unrest in Ukraine, the beginning of which was scheduled for November 15. A part of this information had already been made public by the Head of the SBU Vasyl Hrytsak.

This intelligence data in broad terms corresponds to the so-called Plan on top-priority measures on destabilization of social and political situation in Ukraine “Shatun” – information seized from the mail box of the Advisor to the President of the Russian Federation Vladislav Surkov – and indicates of the beginning of its implementation.

Direct management of implementation of this plan is carried out by his first deputy Ardzinba, and the contact with political powers and NGO’s in Ukraine is maintained by Armenian national Martirosian.

The secret service recorded trips to Russia made by certain organizers of the campaigns in Ukraine for receiving financing and instructions. At that, the enemy is counting on the efficiency of blind use of the activity of a number of social and political movements.

The aim of the plan is domestic destabilization, organization of pre-term elections in Ukraine, reinforcement of Russian-backed powers in new parliament with the perspective of revision of European course and change of foreign policy vector of the state.

The start of active phase is scheduled for November 15 – with All-Ukrainian protest of bank depositors. Starting from November 17 the accent of the protests is to be shifted to the issue of increased tariffs. The “protest” is planned to escalate into blocking of government bodies, extending of claims and demands to the authorities.

By the plan of the Russian handlers, the actions of protest are planned to be provided by alleged mass support. In particular, an active agitation in social media has already been started including calls for support to the “protesters”.

The data received by the SBU and the SZRU evidence that the Russian scenarists planned mass disturbances and even deaths of “a number of participants of the protests”.

The first control intermediate date is fixed for November 24, when the Ukraine-EU Summit dedicated to the finalization of the issue of giving Ukraine the non-visa regime will be held.

During the second half of November until the beginning of December sessions of a number of regional Councils are planned which under the mottos of decentralization will demand the practice of contract relations between “the Cabinet of Ministers and local councils”. It is known that a number of regional Councils have previously approved such decisions and the SBU knows what political force initiated their entering into the agenda.

It is planned to hold meetings (forums) of communities with a further summarizing All-Ukrainian forum of local councils. Direct demands of federalization are not foreseen, a strategy of “creeping erosion” of the central authorities is chosen instead.

Simultaneously with destabilization in Kyiv, the Kremlin plans escalations in the lines. An element of the plan is tension, maximum intensification of bombardments, provocation of local conflicts etc. This tendency is being clearly fixed on the line of contact. The aim is to corner Ukrainian government and perform the attack in-and-out.

The SBU continues to take measures to reveal and block Russian encroachments upon the Constitutional order of Ukraine.

We call for the citizens not to let Russian secret services use them in their attempts to destabilize the situation and destroy Ukraine. We call for all political powers that do not want to become the participants of a foreign game that is hostile to the national interests of Ukraine to be vigilant and careful.
 

Lubricus

Member
Is the government popular enough to get people to support them? I can see Ukrainians protecting the country but not the current government.
From June 2015:
More than nine-in-ten Ukrainians think their country’s economic situation is bad (94%), including 66% who say it is very bad. Similar percentages gave the economy negative ratings in 2014.

In addition to dissatisfaction with economic conditions, Ukrainians express little faith in some of their country’s major institutions. The public is especially critical of their court system. Just 11% say the judiciary is having a good influence on their nation. Roughly three-quarters (76%) say its influence is bad, including 45% who think it is very bad.

Only about a third (32%) thinks the government in Kyiv is having a good impact on the nation. Nearly six-in-ten (59%) say the central government is having a negative influence. Positive views of Kyiv have dropped 15 percentage points in the past 12 months.

http://www.pewglobal.org/2015/06/10/3-ukrainian-public-opinion-dissatisfied-with-current-conditions-looking-for-an-end-to-the-crisis/

Has public opinion gotten better?
 

MilkBeard

Member
From my time staying in Ukraine, so far, the general feeling I get is that everyone knows the government is corrupt, so I would think they'd rather support the idea of being independent than the current government itself.

But I really don't have that much knowledge on the subject. I've just been living here for a few months.
 
Has public opinion gotten better?

Ukrainian government is complete shit. What people outside of Ukraine don't realize realize is that the government didn't really change in 2014. The whole point of conflict that Russia staged was to destabilize Ukraine to prevent any real changes. As a result the two elections that could have impacted Ukraine's future ended up playing out safe. People voted for who they know in hopes that these politicians would be the most capable of fighting Russia.
 

Lubricus

Member
Ukrainian government is complete shit. What people outside of Ukraine don't realize realize is that the government didn't really change in 2014. The whole point of conflict that Russia staged was to destabilize Ukraine to prevent any real changes. As a result the two elections that could have impacted Ukraine's future ended up playing out safe. People voted for who they know in hopes that these politicians would be the most capable of fighting Russia.

Well, I hope the Ukrainians can overcome this and reform.
One thing I read this week was how the clans share the wealth with corrupt government officials and I imagine they will want to keep those officials in power by defeating any reform movement.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/08/world/europe/mikheil-saakashvili-resigns-ukraine.html
 
Well, I hope the Ukrainians can overcome this and reform.
One thing I read this week was how the clans share the wealth with corrupt government officials and I imagine they will want to keep those officials in power by defeating any reform movement.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/08/world/europe/mikheil-saakashvili-resigns-ukraine.html

That's why Trump's presidency is so scary. In a weird twist of faith EU and US are the only agents capable of fighting corruption in Ukraine. They are the ones who keep pressure on Ukrainian government to be open. Recently Ukraine even passed the law that requires politicians to declare their wealth. Without this pressure Russia will take over the rest of Ukraine. If not openly like it did in Crimea and Donbass then they can just use corruption to extend the influence. As much as the West gets shit for being involved in conflicts all over the world this is one of the cases where the West is at least trying to fight corruption instead of just taking over Ukraine like Russia would like you to believe.
 

Lubricus

Member
That's why Trump's presidency is so scary. In a weird twist of faith EU and US are the only agents capable of fighting corruption in Ukraine. They are the ones who keep pressure on Ukrainian government to be open. Recently Ukraine even passed the law that requires politicians to declare their wealth. Without this pressure Russia will take over the rest of Ukraine. If not openly like it did in Crimea and Donbass then they can just use corruption to extend the influence. As much as the West gets shit for being involved in conflicts all over the world this is one of the cases where the West is at least trying to fight corruption instead of just taking over Ukraine like Russia would like you to believe.

I hope the EU can keep the pressure on them.
I'm going to track of this Russian effort and talk to friends and neighbors about this. Russia picked the right time to do this with Obama leaving and the transition work gearing up for the next two months.
When will the next Ukraine election come?
 
I hope the EU can keep the pressure on them.
I'm going to track of this Russian effort and talk to friends and neighbors about this. Russia picked the right time to do this with Obama leaving and the transition work gearing up for the next two months.
When will the next Ukraine election come?

Presidential elections are 2019. Even if everything goes smoothly, I'm still very skeptical that new pro-democracy leaders will emerge by then without significant pressure...
 
Bellingcat has published a publicly sourced report on Russian cross border shelling of Ukraine in the summer of 2014, prior to the first heavy (& mechanized) Russian regular forces' invasion in August of that year. This is also when Ukraine captured a bunch of Russian regulars which Putin claimed got lost in Ukraine.
News from back then: Russian military moving heavy artillery into Ukraine - YouTube

Some key findings:

  • Artillery units of the Russian Armed Forces fired at least on 149 separate occasions attacks against Ukraine in the summer of 2014. Another 130 locations were judged likely to have been used as artillery position.
  • 408 artillery target sites inside Ukraine within range of Russian artillery systems have a trajectory crossing the Ukrainian-Russian border, 127 of them are within 3 km of the Russian border.
  • In total, as evidenced by the number of impact craters, thousands of artillery projectiles were fired by the Russian military on targets inside Ukraine in the summer of 2014.
  • Due to the current lack of publicly-available satellite imagery evidence and the rigid classification criteria used here, these figures represent lower bound estimates of the true numbers of artillery attacks, i.e. there were likely considerably more than 149 attacks as already indicated by the 130 further likely artillery positions. Furthermore, it can be stated:
  • Artillery attacks of the Russian Armed Forces from Russian territory began from early July 2014 and increased in frequency and scale into August and September 2014.
  • Cross-border artillery attacks can be found in the entire border area of the conflict zone in the Donets’k and Luhans’k regions.
  • Due to the frequency, spatial distribution, and scale of the artillery attacks considered in this report, it is impossible to consider these attacks merely as accidents or as the actions of rogue units. These attacks can only therefore be considered as acts of war of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.
  • We invite all readers to access the interactive map to see for themselves all of the data used to create this report.
  • The following extracts give a brief overview of the methods in this report and of one of the case study areas considered in the full report.
I'm happy to see the media is picking it up: Report: Russians Regularly Shelled Eastern Ukraine in 2014 - The New York Times

I remember some videos from back then, filmed by Russians in a border town near Ukraine (Gukovo):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L-mo_wGD0JU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=019XfokDZiI

Update:
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top Bottom