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Ukrainian Conflict - Donetsk Boogaloo

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The majority of Crimea really does want to join Russia. That was never the debate. The debate is whether Crimea has a right to secede.

I think what they actually want is still not clear enough, so it's an interesting question. Of course Crimea does not have a right to secede, not like this at least.

Ukraine and other ex-USSR republics have always fascinated me. On one hand, they are independent states with their own languages and large populations of people to whom those languages are native. On the other hand, I personally know literally dozens of people from Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Belarus who speak only Russian (as in, it's their native language and they are either not very good at their country's national language or can't speak it at all) and usually actively identify themselves as Russian (although they don't have a Russian citizenship). Some of those people are my relatives and there are more who I've talked to online. Then there are places like Tatarstan, which is a part of Russia, but essentially is the same way.

So it's all really confusing, not at all like your ordinary nations with minorities. The difference between a Russian province and a Ukrainian/Kazakh/Belarusian one is really subtle and almost nonexistent in some cases, which makes it really hard to comprehend how those countries work or what people who live there think.

Sorry that was more a general statement after the first sentence. Not directed towards you specifically, more a general hypothetical question.

All right then. Sorry for being a bit on the edge lol.
 
Didn't we just give these guys like 1 billion in aid. So that was pretty much money in the air, right?

It was money to inject into the government so they could stilll write checks. They need like 35B this year, EU promised 11B (euro?), Canada 1/2B, and USA is still working on a larger aide package. Ukraine also owes 2B to Russia and its suggested this will be paid shortly, near term.
 
Why? He is right.

What else is the European Union supposed to do? Run and Gun? As soon as the Crimean Parliament is ceasing its work, Crimea will be part of Russia.

Edit: Russia will not falter because of some ineffective sanctions.

who is right? First of all, this will not stop at Crimea and sure, sanctions would be really bad for Russia... but there wont be sanctions as Germany needs its gas.

Rest of the world would not let Russia set precedent, even if these were properly done elections with international oversight. Because it would mean that any region of any country could vote itself into independency. It would end up starting 3rd world war.

Nothing is simple. I just hope people wont die because of it.
 
Treuhand. Look up how DDR was robbed. But now, stop the derails.

It had nothing to do with the hilariously inefficient Kombinat conglomerates, a border completely closed off to the west. and a stultifying police state! The DDR wuz robbed!


You have more of a agenda in this thread than you've been letting on.
 
That's why they must not be ineffective. Give them some teeth and Russia will falter.

Show me the sanctions that will make Russia falter when Russia has troops on Crimea, a vote by the Crimean Parliament and a popular vote to join the Russian federation?

The EU and the US might call all of this illegitimate, but Russia acted quickly and decisively, Ukraine might be able to delay things but they won't be able to prevent the inevitable unless they want to provoke a war they cannot win, and as long as the popular vote was not a complete fraud and there is surprise a majority of Ukranian people on the peninsula all of this will be over soon as long as Russia keeps pushing.
 
who is right? First of all, this will not stop at Crimea and sure, sanctions would be really bad for Russia... but there wont be sanctions as Germany needs its gas.

Rest of the world would not let Russia set precedent, even if these were properly done elections with international oversight. Because it would mean that any region of any country could vote itself into independency. It would end up starting 3rd world war.

Nothing is simple. I just hope people wont die because of it.

What is wrong with that? Assuming it's a legitimate vote, why should the population of a region not be allowed to vote themselves to independency? Here in Canada, the province of Quebec has had 2 referendums in the past to secede. We didn't just say, hey Quebec you aren't allowed to leave so we don't care about your referendum. We instead campaigned for them to vote to stay, which in the end they did.
 
Don't believe everything you see...
Another view.

Bi4Cd_rCMAAdWL2.jpg:large

That's the same thing lol. Are you suggesting there are less people on the second picture? It seems about the same to me, but it doesn't really matter.
 
That is false. As recent as polling in 2012 70% of the Population described itself as Ukranian.

Now Russia has people whipped up in such a fury they cant even see straight. A known Neo Nazi comes in and declares himself Governor of Donetsk. He gets arrested and now they demand he be freed because he is their "governor" meanwhile they cry for help because supposedly speaking Russian is grounds for being shot on sight by Nazis.

Yet they actively embrace real Neo Nazis in propaganda induced fear

Curious if the poll have Russian as an option
 
That's why they must not be ineffective. Give them some teeth and Russia will falter.
-- That would almost certainly cause economic dislocations in western Europe, so is probably a total non-starter. For that reason alone I doubt Putin lays awake at night over the threat of sanctions.
 
Curious if the poll have Russian as an option

What poll? You just say what you think about your nationality.

What is wrong with that? Assuming it's a legitimate vote, why should the population of a region not be allowed to vote themselves to independency? Here in Canada, the province of Quebec has had 2 referendums in the past to secede. We didn't just say, hey Quebec you aren't allowed to leave so we don't care about your referendum. We instead campaigned for them to vote to stay, which in the end they did.

We have no option to stay. Both option lead to change. Other regions will have the same options.
 
What is wrong with that? Assuming it's a legitimate vote, why should the population of a region not be allowed to vote themselves to independency? Here in Canada, the province of Quebec has had 2 referendums in the past to secede. We didn't just say, hey Quebec you aren't allowed to leave so we don't care about your referendum. We instead campaigned for them to vote to stay, which in the end they did.

Apples and Oranges. Personally, I have no problems with referendums if they're done in a legal, non-coercive way, but if France rolled in and gave carte blanche to a bunch of Quebecois militias it'd be another story. And this poll wasn't much of a choice.
 
As I understand, we need back our nuclear weapon program, if all countries, that signed memorandum, will fail to keep what is promised.

I said if it was a legitimate vote.

I am curious how those votes is selected, as there can be more then 3/4/7 or even more options. And problem with this referendum not about separation, but about annexation by Russia.
 
What is wrong with that? Assuming it's a legitimate vote, why should the population of a region not be allowed to vote themselves to independency? Here in Canada, the province of Quebec has had 2 referendums in the past to secede. We didn't just say, hey Quebec you aren't allowed to leave so we don't care about your referendum. We instead campaigned for them to vote to stay, which in the end they did.

It's not as simple as that, it might be fair in some cases, in others not.
Look at Soviet history, forcing people in other countries out of their homes and then letting Russians move there.
How would that work out in the Baltics if a referendum was passed in some regions? That could possibly cause even more suffering to the rest of the population today as a consequence of the Soviet occupation.
 
It's weird how the BBC is only reporting the most superficial details on the vote and not covering if there were any irregularities/regularities.
 
It had nothing to do with the hilariously inefficient Kombinat conglomerates, a border completely closed off to the west. and a stultifying police state! The DDR wuz robbed!


You have more of a agenda in this thread than you've been letting on.

Oh jeez. I never said the Kombinat was efficent or the police state was acceptable. It never was, never will be so where the fucking hell are you coming from. One thing ( horrid state like DDR) doesn't exclude the other ( robbery trough western cooperations).
 
Haha: https://twitter.com/ChrisMurphyCT/status/445305080603226112



Sad but true.
Like Enstein said: 'I do not know with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones'.
Einstein was wrong, one cannot fight a World War with sticks and stones. Nuclear war could be the end of this civilization but its not garanteed, people could survive and live to fight more conventional or technologically advanced warfares in the future. A nuclear armed Ukraine would have been enough to prevent this because Ukraine would what, nuke Russia? Making that hypothetical is too chock-full of what-ifs to be reasonable. Forget nukes, what happens if "Ukrainian terror cells" start bombing Moscow? You think this is going to be a conflict where armies line up and attack eachother? Is the threat of total annihilation that only way to prevent such occurances? I hope not.
 
Einstein was wrong, one cannot fight a World War with sticks and stones. Nuclear war could be the end of this civilization but its not garanteed, people could survive and live to fight more conventional or technologically advanced warfares in the future. A nuclear armed Ukraine would have been enough to prevent this because Ukraine would what, nuke Russia? Making that hypothetical is too chock-full of what-ifs to be reasonable. Forget nukes, what happens if "Ukrainian terror cells" start bombing Moscow? You think this is going to be a conflict where armies line up and attack eachother? Is the threat of total annihilation that only way to prevent such occurances? I hope not.

Mostly yes. Nuclear weapon is guaranty to prevent war. It is not supposed to be used.
 
Einstein was wrong, one cannot fight a World War with sticks and stones. Nuclear war could be the end of this civilization but its not garanteed, people could survive and live to fight more conventional or technologically advanced warfares in the future. A nuclear armed Ukraine would have been enough to prevent this because Ukraine would what, nuke Russia? Making that hypothetical is too chock-full of what-ifs to be reasonable. Forget nukes, what happens if "Ukrainian terror cells" start bombing Moscow? You think this is going to be a conflict where armies line up and attack eachother? Is the threat of total annihilation that only way to prevent such occurances? I hope not.

Drone strikes? Patriotic laws? Who knows?
 
Surely there exists a more mutually beneficial model for global stability than the threat of mushroom clouds. Godammnit I know you are right but it is not acceptable.
It has been economic interdependence and well off populaces jealously guarding their wealth and family enough to urge politicians to sue for peace. This has been suspended this time for some reason.
 
Drone strikes? Patriotic laws? Who knows?

According to Russian mass media Russians take control of two USA drones, that crosses Crimea air space, and landed them by disconnecting from the base. This is not sarcasm, they say so on TV.

Surely there exists a more mutually beneficial model for global stability than the threat of mushroom clouds. Godammnit I know you are right but it is not acceptable.

It's ineffective weapon, as it is destroying too much. That's why this is last line and used when there is no other options. But at the end it is useless, as other nuclear countries will fire their shots and whole Earth will be messed.
 
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As the United States condemned a referendum on the future of the Crimean peninsula staged by pro-Russian separatists on Sunday, one of Russia’s most influential television hosts appeared on the evening news in Moscow, before a huge mushroom cloud graphic, to remind viewers that Russia is still “the only country in the world capable of turning the U.S.A. into radioactive dust.”

Although the saber-rattling comments came from Dmitry Kiselyov, a news anchor well-known for his “mad as hell” delivery of diatribes on the supposed threats to Russia posed by foreign plotters and native homosexuals, the report still stunned viewers of the state broadcaster’s main channel.

Mr. Kiselyov was the man recently chosen by President Vladimir Putin to lead an official news agency charged with explaining Kremlin policy to the world, a media organization to be called Rossiya Sevodnya, or Russia Today.

Link
 
Guy who believes UFOs are Jesus.

Really?

Those are credible sources and the videos have people actually saying what was in the text.

The 2004 Guardian article shows how the same thing happened during 2003/2004 Ukraine Color revolutions of outside funding which started these uprisings.
 
According to Russian mass media Russians take control of two USA drones, that crosses Crimea air space, and landed them by disconnecting from the base. This is not sarcasm, they say so on TV.

Russia the first country hold accountable for drone strikes? Well lets hope they won't go so far.
 
Mostly yes. Nuclear weapon is guaranty to prevent war. It is not supposed to be used.

No it isn't. You have to be a strong nuclear power, with second strike capabilities, strategic and stealth bombing as well. Otherwise, with nuclear weapons, you risk utter destruction.

At present only the US/Russia have enough deterrence towards each other with regards to nuclear weapons, that they are both scared not to use them. China is up there now (have enough ICBM's and nuclear submarines to make threat dangerous), France and UK are declining but their second strike capability is what scares others with their SLBM's launched from submarines.

Beyond those nations, India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea, despite being nuclear, have no credible nuclear deterrence, outside their spheres of influence. India can target Pakistan and China with their missiles. North Korea has conducted tests, but haven't weaponized it where they can put them on ballistic missiles. They don't possess global ICBM capability, they don't posses SLBM's, they don't have stealth bombing capabilities.
 
Sorry for double post. As for whether Crimea sets a precedent. I don't think it necessarily does. This was a unique situation. Antonz mentioned the last referendum held, 70% wanted to stay. This was in 2012 though. I imagine the numbers would have changed after the Euromaidan protests where you have police being killed, snipers shooting unarmed protesters, the president fleeing, riot police fleeing and going to Crimea. Maybe without Russian interference, the numbers would have changed.

It doesn't set a precedent necessarily because, one, Russia is the second strongest military in the world, it is one of the world's major economies (8th and growing), it has long standing historical and cultural ties, it has a large naval base there etc.

What this means is, you have a country that cannot really be swayed by any limited military option, a country that cannot be swayed by any limited economic options. This really was the "Perfect Storm " of a bunch of factors that lead to this. It's almost unique in its situation. Very few countries would be able to get away with this, and it just sucks for Ukraine that Russia is one of the only ones who did it in the modern 21st century.
 
Einstein was wrong, one cannot fight a World War with sticks and stones. Nuclear war could be the end of this civilization but its not garanteed, people could survive and live to fight more conventional or technologically advanced warfares in the future. A nuclear armed Ukraine would have been enough to prevent this because Ukraine would what, nuke Russia? Making that hypothetical is too chock-full of what-ifs to be reasonable. Forget nukes, what happens if "Ukrainian terror cells" start bombing Moscow? You think this is going to be a conflict where armies line up and attack eachother? Is the threat of total annihilation that only way to prevent such occurances? I hope not.

I guarantee you Russia would have thought much longer and harder about this if Ukraine had nukes. I don't know if they would have still invaded but it wouldn't have been such an easy decision to send in a few thousand troops with their insignia ripped off and waltz in knowing there was zero chance of forceful retaliation.

Russia just made it a whole lot harder to convince countries near hostile neighbors to consider voluntarily giving up their nukes.

PS: Since Russia showed no one is willing to do anything about annexations, Canada get ready we're coming for your syrup.
 
No it isn't. You have to be a strong nuclear power, with second strike capabilities, strategic and stealth bombing as well. Otherwise, with nuclear weapons, you risk utter destruction.

At present only the US/Russia have enough deterrence towards each other with regards to nuclear weapons, that they are both scared not to use them. China is up there now (have enough ICBM's and nuclear submarines to make threat dangerous), France and UK are declining but their second strike capability is what scares others with their SLBM's launched from submarines.

Beyond those nations, India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea, despite being nuclear, have no credible nuclear deterrence, outside their spheres of influence. India can target Pakistan and China with their missiles. North Korea has conducted tests, but haven't weaponized it where they can put them on ballistic missiles. They don't possess global ICBM capability, they don't posses SLBM's, they don't have stealth bombing capabilities.

Ukraine was third country by nuclear weapon size. In the past, we have everything that Russia has now, as this is all left from USSR on our and their side.
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0FF03oC5zno

Vice video on the new National Guard being built in Ukraine.

Focuses on the youth from the Maidan volunteering and going off for Military training etc.

Lots of respect for them. They started the process to free themselves and now they are ready to defend it

I am not completely up to date on this, may someone tell me why a new Ukrainian National Guard is being built up? What issues can they resolve with it that they couldn't with their military/riot police?
 
Ukraine was third country by nuclear weapon size. In the past, we have everything that Russia has now, as this is all left from USSR on our and their side.

Yeah, and you think Ukraine could have maintained those nuclear weapons for 22+ years? Russia itself is barely able to maintain their stockpile and which is why they have around less than 2000 armed warheads. Another big difference is, Russia has modernized it's nuclear force quite a bit, testing new missiles, testing new mobile launchers, new submarine launched missiles. Even the US hasn't modernized it's nuclear weapons since the 80's and 90's.

Edit: I get in hindsight you think nuclear weapons being in Ukraine could have changed this, but I don't think Europe/Russia would have tolerated a Ukrainian state that has had a few revolutions now, as a nuclear weapons state, nor allow so many warheads just sit around etc. Ukraine has had trouble maintaining a decent military even.
 
I am not completely up to date on this, may someone tell me why a new Ukrainian National Guard is being built up? What issues can they resolve with it that they couldn't with their military/riot police?

It said in the video that Ukraine only has a few thousand combat-ready troops, compared to Russia's 200,000. They're doing this as a precaution incase some shit like what Russia pulled ever happens again. They'll have more than a meager handful of troops ready to defend the country.
 
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