Sviatoslav
Member
Wow. Saakashvili shelling Tskhinvali is akin to pre WW2 Poland. Gotcha.
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Ukrainian Conflict - Donetsk Boogaloo
- Thread starter Salvadora
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Wow. Saakashvili shelling Tskhinvali is akin to pre WW2 Poland. Gotcha.
Knock this pointless back and forth off. Move on.
Also, ultratruman, stop with the hyperbole, you're not helping anything.
He's probably assuming Ukraine is going to move closer to the west anyway, annexing the Crimea is probably making the most of a bad hand.
His absolutism is gonna bite Russia in the ass eventually.
ultratruman
Banned
Which is exactly the reason why they need a single, united fighting force. And Europe is just as politically divided as the USA, perhaps less so.
FullMetalx117
Member
I really don't understand politics. Why not just have the U.S. + the entire European Union put Russia in its place? U.S. doesn't have to go into this alone and shouldn't have to...
Why do you think you have to fight them in the future? This isn't Risk. What a dumb comment, you're potentially talking about millions of dead people here.
The WW2 dynamic is totally irrelevant in the era of Nuclear weapons. The nation state's ambition is limited by the advent of thermonuclear war. The west will never try and fight Russia directly. You guys probably still have some old nukes floating about which would make Putin think twice too. Should probably get on recommissioning those SS18's stat.
TacticalFox88
Banned
The man is taking advantage of a declining European military and building up his entire military that was in shambles for a decade until he came into the picture.
Can you really blame the guy?
How do you secretly invade a country? Do share.
Resident_UA
Member
Yes, he has no reason to. Russia has EVERYTHING it needs.
Resident_UA
Member
But what's the line then? Poland? Check Republic? Austria? When do nukes come in?
LOL, yeah, that is in nobodies interest except China.
Sviatoslav
Member
What do you mean by put in its place? War? Sanctions?
Any EU state. Any pressure on any EU state would see nuclear assets put in place. You do not risk invading on that basis. Putin knows this, he is not insane.
Sub_Level
wants to fuck an Asian grill.
I live on the border and one of my Mexican classmates literally at one point said "They're getting mad cuz us Mexicans are taking over."
Even they acknowledge it. I don't mind personally since the food can be good.
In what way though? Economically? Militarily? Russia is the world's dominant nuclear weapons power, and the 2nd most powerful conventional military force in the world. How will you put them in place without creating possibly another global war? Economically it's possible, but you'd risk blowback as well, and Crimea/Ukraine doesn't matter as much, if it impacts your economy. What happens when you break Russia economically? They'll just sit there and watch their citizens starve when they can pretty much steamroll much of Eastern and Western Europe?
maquiladora
Member
Real politik, neither EU, not NATO, not Obama will risk a massive crisis with Russia over Crimea. Even the Ukrainian forces in Crimea themselves aren't resisting (so far).
FullMetalx117
Member
Why not both? Threats have a lot of power. I think Russia is smart enough to understand that it can't take on the entire west.
Resident_UA
Member
Ukrainian forces are ready for "Georgia" scenario. EU can at least say something...
EU is too chicken shit to say anything.
Sviatoslav
Member
Threats have no power when Putin would know it's a complete bluff. Nobody is going to start a war over Crimea. Sanctions are problematic when so many EU countries are reliant of Russia for oil and gas.
Resident_UA
Member
And that's really sad...
We can talk about that as soon as Russia bombs weddings & kills children and then pays 7200 ruble ($200) per victim and 2700 ruble ($75) per wounded person.
The thing is that this is probably exactly what Putin is thinking as well. So I wonder what would happen if the EU shows some muscles
Ready? They've just disbanded their own police force. The military aren't gonna listen for the new "government" that has yet to be democratically elected.
Resident_UA
Member
Ever heard of Chechnya? Do you watch Russian news or something?!
ultratruman
Banned
You're intentionally misreading my point, so I'll assume you have nothing left to say and i'll move on.
To be fair, they were very good at diplomatically helping the opposition to oust Yanukovych. They knew he would not survive that deal to relinquish his powers, that's why they basically forced the opposition to sign.
The memory of the Balkan wars, of European troops dancing with Mladic's butchers, and Rwanda weighs heavily on the conscience of European governments. Who would expect a President like Hollande, by all accounts a committed socialist, would be so actively intervene in the crisis plaguing the Central African Republic? The way the Ukranian people have acted throughout this crisis has been the most perfect example of European values in action in recent memory. If the EU isn't willing to do what it takes to protect this, what is it willing to do?
TacticalFox88
Banned
If you're making a threat that you have no real intention of following through on, it's not much of a threat at all.
Which is exactly why the West hasn't threatened anything, nor will.
Which is exactly why the West hasn't threatened anything, nor will.
I'm having a hard time believing that Russia could't wait a couple months to see how the government shook out. Weak countries do not deserve to be invaded for the benefit of a nation's military.
The EU is unlikely to do anything as long as they are afraid of stepping on each other's dongs.
Resident_UA
Member
?
Even if it was true, you know there are forces in Western Ukraine too? And they definitely don't like Russia.
Do you even know what "Georgia" scenario is?
War just isn't a viable long term solution, especially with nukes in play.
The real solution to this problem is to help Russia out. Imagine a Russia that has managed to curtail it's corruption and become a liberal democracy? A Russia that has managed to build up it's economy and greatly expanded trade with the EU, improving the prosperity of both these former rivals? Basically, what has been been done for Poland, and people hope can be done for Ukraine, must eventually be done for Russia. It's the only way that this terrible Cold War dynamic can finally and truly become a thing of the past.
The real, long term solution is not to antagonize Russia, but to befriend them. A war would only ultimately serve to keep Russia a corrupt dictatorship.
ultratruman
Banned
Exactly, he's consolidating his power. At this point it seems like even he knows a '68 style invasion of Kiev would be too much.
Russia has done far worse. Have you ever heard of Chechyna? The Afghan War? Holodomor? Kolyma? Any uncountable instances of mass deportation and ethnic cleansing?
The reason that Van Rumpuy and Ashton were elected as primary representatives was because they are so non-threatening.
Any fightback will come from the US, UK and French. Obama is joke status on that front, the UK has nothing to back up it's words and the French are probably being managed down by the Germans who worry the heating is going to turn off in the winter.
Seriously it's up to you guys. You need to get your nukes back. They are useful.
Russia would show its larger muscles. Putin is a KGB guy, he's one of those supervillain/super politician guys. He's reading this situation like a hawk. Secure Sevastopol, which he has because there were about 30,000 troops already there. Send across helicopters that no one can really identify carrying who knows what. Have his troops be masked, wearing no insignia and secure airports and the state broadcast building, effectively preventing any Western Ukrainian leader from coming and any word really getting out. Now he's gauging the US/EU response which has been little to nothing of substance. Next he'll watch Ukraine. Any military movements etc.
Who knows what he really has planned, but he's playing this like a chess match. Getting his pieces in order, drawing the other side to make the first move etc.
TacticalFox88
Banned
As ideal as that would be, I highly doubt that will happen, seeing as how many on both sides still genuinely dislike each other and are stuck in a Cold War mentality.
Hell, even in the EU supposedly people on the same "side" barely tolerate one another and bicker over stupid shit.
Resident_UA
Member
Another sad thing is that Obama has the strongest stand on this... Germany trying to get off nuclear power is one of the worst things that happened in the past few years....
Considering that the average winter temperature was +10 Celsius or so, there's no need to worry about that.
ultratruman
Banned
You're talking about appeasement, a fundamental misunderstanding of the way the mind of a viscous bully like Putin works.
He's consolidating his power in Crimea for now, but I doubt anyone believes he has given up on Ukraine.
Resident_UA
Member
If Ukraine can avoid the war, loosing Crimea is not the worst... Ukraine would still win overall. The whole country was almost lost to Russia. One peninsula is not too terrible.
maquiladora
Member
Ukrainian forces fighting back would probably play directly into the Russian gameplan. They are doing the smart thing right now by showing restraint.
I'm sure the EU will prepare some kind of statement over the weekend, but it's not like that will do anything.
Germans are fucking cretins on that front but getting off nuclear power has little to do with your ability to fashion weapons today. Pretty much any western country can cobble together a boosted fission device and probably even a Teller-Ulam thermonuclear relatively easily.
Ukraine should never have gotten rid of it's nuclear arsenal. It is suicide to do that, the reason why so many countries pursue the bomb is to protect themselves from aggressors.
I'm talking about now of course.
Kinda crazy to mention Holodomor + Kolyma. Putin was not even alive when that happened. Following that logic, I could blame the current US + Obama for murdering native Americans. Could also blame current Germany + Merkel for the holocaust.
It's even worse to use those insanely horrible events to defend current horrible actions by current countries. "Look we aren't that bad. We only murdered a few millions. Holocaust + World War 1+2 were much worse!!!!one". We, the "good" west, should keep our mouths shut. We are the ones invading countries and killing and injuring people all around the world because "terrorists!!!". Fuck us first.
Osiris
I permanently banned my 6 year old daughter from using the PS4 for mistakenly sending grief reports as it's too hard to watch or talk to her
Whilst the EU might find it tough to impose sanctions, I think they should consider it, the US certain seems to be, with both threatening a boycott of the G8 Summit at Sochi.
Beautifully Shaped Monsters
Member
This might be an unpopular opinion, but considering that that the majority of the population in Crimea are ethnic Russians and that the historical ties of the area with Ukraine are not very strong, the best solution would probably be to allow Crimea independence, although that would of course lead it to become under heavy influence from Russia.
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