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Ukrainian Conflict - Donetsk Boogaloo

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DyTonic said:
Hmmm I wonder what will be the outcome from all these sanctions, will Russia give back Crimea..hmm.
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Nope, nothings going to change on the ground. This is all part of theater of looking good to the US people. The fact that the EU has only threatened new sanctions if things get worse is far more telling. The russians realise that whats happened today is a balancing act by the US and the EU, The american sanctions will have little impact on them so they'll accept them and move on. Putin got what he wanted but he also knows that there would be payback and this isn't as bad as many in the kremlin had feared. Some of them expected Iran style sanctions.
I read a very interesting article today by a former Kremlin adviser. It states that what you see from world leaders etc is just a lot of show. It's political theater if you will and is designed to play to home audiences as opposed to those abroad. Nearly everything that matters is done behind closed doors and between diplomates who are pretty much always smiles and handshakes. They all recognise that getting working with each other is the best for their country. So despite the rhetoric etc it's all a show. The real stuff is done in the shadows.
 
pulsemyne said:
Nope, nothings going to change on the ground. This is all part of theater of looking good to the US people. The fact that the EU has only threatened new sanctions if things get worse is far more telling. The russians realise that whats happened today is a balancing act by the US and the EU, The american sanctions will have little impact on them so they'll accept them and move on. Putin got what he wanted but he also knows that there would be payback and this isn't as bad as many in the kremlin had feared. Some of them expected Iran style sanctions.
I read a very interesting article today by a former Kremlin adviser. It states that what you see from world leaders etc is just a lot of show. It's political theater if you will and is designed to play to home audiences as opposed to those abroad. Nearly everything that matters is done behind closed doors and between diplomates who are pretty much always smiles and handshakes. They all recognise that getting working with each other is the best for their country. So despite the rhetoric etc it's all a show. The real stuff is done in the shadows.
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The problem isn't even necessarily sanctions. Ukraine will now stick it to Russia at any opportunity they get. That should be Putin's biggest concern. There is now a sworn enemy at their border. Admittedly a weak one militarily, but one that can make Russia look very bad on the world stage.
 
Do we have any other polsters showing us how this whole incident has affected Putin popularity and support for the activities in Ukraine? When it was first starting up I though there was a poll that showed it as extremely unpopular, but the highly dubious state run polling in Russia says his job approval is in the high 60s. Any other sources aside from state run ones?
 
We got into a vibe and spent hours on a Twilight Struggle match - felt really fitting.

I wonder if there will be a boardgame based on Cold War II and will I get to play it?
 
EU adding sanctions against 12 more people but wont release names until tomorrow. (Can bet Russia has the list by now and those involved are shifting assets)

Upcoming EU/Russia Summit cancelled.
 
Chariot said:
So on a scale from 0 to cold war - where are we now?
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Bare in mind how the Cold War got started.

The original happened because Europe as a whole was a mess after WW2. The US and the Soviet Union got into a power struggle with regards to the restructuring of Europe (and obviously Germany) The USSR was trying to spread Communism in part to prevent what they felt was the spread of American imperialism, and the US was trying to prevent that because fuck Communism. The two super powers were only Allies in the second world war largely because of the mutual desire to stop the Nazis. Sort of a "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" kind if thing. Neither participant liked the idea of the other having too much power. But because nobody wanted another world war, the US and the USSR were at a stalemate.

Looking at the current situation, I don't see anything like that happening. Much as Russia seems love the occasional throwback to when they just sort of did whatever the fuck they wanted, the political landscape of Europe as a whole has moved on and gotten with the times. The countries of Europe have kindly stopped invading each other, I just think someone forgot to tell Russia.
 
Loxley said:
Looking at the current situation, I don't see anything like that happening. Much as Russia seems love the occasional throwback to when they just sort of did whatever the fuck they wanted, the political landscape of Europe as a whole has moved on and gotten with the times. The countries of Europe have kindly stopped invading each other, I just think someone forgot to tell Russia.
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Russia is just doing the same shit that the US does in Central and South America. Except Russia is far weaker than the US and so will face consequences for it. But for whatever reason Russia feels the consequences are worth its actions.
 
crozier said:
Like Georgia, diplomatic relations will be totally normalized this time next year. And Russia will still own Crimea.
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While mostly true it is going to change the dynamics of the region drastically. Even Former President Yanukovychs Political Party has said that Ukraine needs to join NATO when things have calmed down

Putin may have gotten Crimea but it will have lasting effects. Tomorrow Ukraine and EU sign the Political Agreement.
 
Chariot said:
So on a scale from 0 to cold war - where are we now?
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I'd say a 2.

It'll be a while and very unlikely that any country gets 'hot' and goes to war against each other this time around. The restraint Ukraine has shown despite being constantly provoked by Russia speaks to that.

Putin despite trying to become Emperor of Russia is already 61. Eventually, he's going to have to plan a succession plan that he'll actually stick to, and the next guy will be more pragmatic about all of this, and plan accordingly.

It sucks right now, but if I had to take a guess, a decade from now, Russia and most of the rest of the world will have good relations again.
 
Did this recent batch of Dugin fanwank get posted?

Scenario Russian spring

1. Kiev takes a waiting position, concentrates its troops on the border with the Crimea, and threatens, but takes no direct action. The U.S. strongly pressures Russia, freezing accounts, and actively wages information war, but they and NATO avoid direct clashes. Kiev receives substantial support from the West, but focuses on domestic issues. The border with Russia is closed.

The referendum [in the Crimea on whether to join Russia] passes with minimal problems. The vast majority vote for joining Russia. No country recognizes the referendum except Russia. Russia raises the question of retaliatory actions if it receives Crimea into Russia. Both chambers of the Duma promptly ratify the annexation. Crimea is returned to Russia. Russian forces enter.

The West rages strong pressure on Russia. Militants in the North Caucasus and the fifth column in Moscow are activated. Putin is supported by everyone. His popularity among the people climaxes. This helps him cope with internal challenges.

2. In eastern Ukraine, Kiev starts to take tough punitive measures. There is a straight nationalist dictatorship. Individuals attempt to attack Crimea or commit acts of sabotage. They start taking revenge on Russians and the Russian-speaking east and south for the loss of Crimea. This leads to the onset of resistance. The second phase of Ukrainian drama begins: The Battle for New Russia. People wake up at once and quickly. Ukraine establishes a state of emergency, in connection with what is defined as “Muscovite aggression.” The last traces of democracy are abolished. Elections are held in May in wartime.

3. The nationalists arrange a series of terrorist attacks in Russia. In Russia itself, the regime evolves, and starts to clean out the fifth column.

4. In Novorossia, resistance increases and gradually moves to the phase of direct rebellion against the Kiev henchmen. There is a bloody civil war. Russia deploys massive effective support structure; symmetrically the West supports Kiev. At a certain moment, in response to the sabotage in Russia and bloody actions of the nationalists and the repressive apparatus of Kiev against civilians and the east of Ukraine, Russia sends its troops into the east. The West threatens nuclear war. This is the existential moment for Putin. But he cannot stop. Going hard (possibly with heavy losses), Novorossia is liberated. The Left-bank Ukraine is conquered, with its border along the Dnieper. A new government is founded — for example, Ukraine or Novorossia. Or a version of Crimea may be repeated.

5. The Right-bank Ukraine, which does not recognize secession (as Yugoslavia under Milosevic and later Serbia against Kosovo), forms a new de facto Ukraine-2 state. NATO bases are immediately located on its territory, stopping the possibility of Russian move to Kiev.

6. The new rigidly nationalistic Ukrainian government quickly comes to a crisis. Direct clashes begin between ethnic groups (Ruthenians, Hungarians, Poles, Romanians, other minorities) and on political grounds (power loss blamed for half the territories of Ukraine). The state weakens. The process of new secessions begins.

7. Russia does not stop there, but carries activity into Europe, acting as the main element of the European Conservative Revolution. Europe starts to crack: Some countries are behind the U.S., but more often begin to listen to Russia. Against the background of the financial crisis, Russia’s position becomes more attractive. Russia takes on the protection of multipolarity, continentalism, and new conservatism (the Fourth Political Theory).

8. In western Ukraine, Ukraine-2, a pro-European (pro-German) political force comes to power that begins to soften anti-Russian policy and moves away from the U.S.

9. Across Europe, the de-Americanization process begins. An autonomous European armed force is created independent of NATO on the basis of the German Armed Forces and the French.

10. A new great Continental Association is formed, as a confederation of Europe and Eurasia, the European Union and the Eurasian Union. Russian, Ukrainians and Europeans are on one side of the barricades, the Americans on the other. American hegemony and dominance of the dollar as well as domination of Atlanticism, liberalism and the financial oligarchy is ended. A new page in world history begins. The Slavs are reunited not against Europe, but with Europe in the framework of a multipolar polycentric world. From Lisbon to Vladivostok.
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I think Russian ultra-nationalism is my favourite kind.
 
CHEEZMO™;105226604 said:
Did this recent batch of Dugin fanwank get posted?



I think Russian ultra-nationalism is my favourite kind.
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The best part is when Russia invades a European country and so then Europe gets mad at the USA and makes a giant union with Russia.
 
I find the Russia hate hilarious. The real losers are Ukrainians who have corrupt pro-Western fascists on one end and a powerful Russian neighbor on the other end.

US wants them part of NATO for no reason other than to surround Russia. Russia wants to keeps them in the sphere of influence.

No one really cares about democracy or the Ukrainian people.

Also Putin is very popular according to polls so Russians seem to be on his side.
 
pgtl_10 said:
I find the Russia hate hilarious. The real losers are Ukrainians who have corrupt pro-Western fascists on one end and a powerful Russian neighbor on the other end.

US wants them part of NATO for no reason other than to surround Russia. Russia wants to keeps them in the sphere of influence.

No one really cares about democracy or the Ukrainian people.

Also Putin is very popular according to polls so Russians seem to be on his side.
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That's great except Ukraine wants to be part of the EU and NATO. But like you said you don't care what Ukraine wants.
 
pgtl_10 said:
I find the Russia hate hilarious. The real losers are Ukrainians who have corrupt pro-Western fascists on one end and a powerful Russian neighbor on the other end.

US wants them part of NATO for no reason other than to surround Russia. Russia wants to keeps them in the sphere of influence.
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They're trapped between a voluntary economic union on one side and the country that just invaded and annexed a region of their coutnry on the other. Gee, I wonder which one they're going to align with from here on out? The Ukrainian government is not a group of fascists, I can't believe people are buying this nonsense.

I'm not sure if you've looked at a map recently but the US has had Moscow surrounded since about 1952. Ukraine is not a vital part of a counter-Russian alliance, they already have bases in Turkey, the Baltic States, Japan, Poland and Romania. Ukraine joining NATO protects Ukraine from further Russian aggression, while the US gains rather little from it except spiting Putin.

If you're interested in the good of the Ukranian people and not power games, it's quite easy to see why they would want to be aligning with Europe right now. Have you forgotten that this nonsense started because the Ukrainian people wanted to align with Europe, not Russia, and their leader wouldn't listen? Or do you believe the whole Euromaiden movement was secretly orchestrated by US spies?
 
Have to say I like the way Germanys Foreign Ministers plays his hand.

When asked if Europe’s pushing through with the Ukrainian Association Agreement could be interpreted as a hostile act against Russia, Steinmayer answered matter-of-factly that, to the contrary, this “phase one” Association Agreement deals with political requirements to enter the EU, such as electoral rights, human rights, and establishing a rule of law. These political requirements, Steinmayer declared with a straight face, will make Ukraine a stable nation, which should calm Putin’s fear of a chaotic and unstable Ukraine. With a Europeanized Ukraine guaranteeing all citizens electoral and human rights, enforced by a stable rule of law, Putin also need not be worried about his ethnic Russian brothers residing on Ukrainian soil. European “civilization” is a much better protection than Russian troops or special ops forces.

Steinmayer was not yet through with Putin. Again, as if responding to Putin’s humanitarian concerns, he declared that the most urgent order of business was the dispatching of international observers to monitor the human rights abuses that Putin’s propaganda machine declared are rampant throughout Ukraine. Several hundred international observers should be on site in Ukrainian cities and towns within twenty four hours, declared Steinmayer. They can protect ethnic Russians from discrimination, and they can establish if outside trouble makers, whether sent in by John Kerry or Vladimir Putin, are interfering in Ukraine’s internal affairs. With hundreds of international observers spreading out across Ukraine, President Putin can sleep soundly. His Slavic brothers are safe from hooligans, neo-Nazis, and foreign trouble makers.

But if Putin is so concerned, he surely would not want to exercise Russia’s veto to deny international observers entry to the extremist and neo-Nazi controlled Ukraine, opined Steinmayer.
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CHEEZMO™;105226604 said:
Did this recent batch of Dugin fanwank get posted?



I think Russian ultra-nationalism is my favourite kind.
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Sounds like a low-rent PNAC with "appropriately" downscaled ambitions.
 
ThoseDeafMutes said:
They're trapped between a voluntary economic union on one side and the country that just invaded and annexed a region of their coutnry on the other. Gee, I wonder which one they're going to align with from here on out? The Ukrainian government is not a group of fascists, I can't believe people are buying this nonsense.

I'm not sure if you've looked at a map recently but the US has had Moscow surrounded since about 1952. Ukraine is not a vital part of a counter-Russian alliance, they already have bases in Turkey, the Baltic States, Japan, Poland and Romania. Ukraine joining NATO protects Ukraine from further Russian aggression, while the US gains rather little from it except spiting Putin.

If you're interested in the good of the Ukranian people and not power games, it's quite easy to see why they would want to be aligning with Europe right now. Have you forgotten that this nonsense started because the Ukrainian people wanted to align with Europe, not Russia, and their leader wouldn't listen? Or do you believe the whole Euromaiden movement was secretly orchestrated by US spiesUkrainian

Are you sure the Ukrainian want to align with Europe or just a just foreign backed fascists? Also the cabinet is full of members of the far right and oligarchs. Russia is no saint but acting like these protests have anything to do with aspirations of the Ukrainian people and not foreign powers and a core of wealthy people is absurd.

http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/02/28/ukrainian-democracy-a-barrier-to-washingtons-goals/

Ukraine is far more divided than people admit.
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pgtl_10 said:
ThoseDeafMutes said:
They're trapped between a voluntary economic union on one side and the country that just invaded and annexed a region of their coutnry on the other. Gee, I wonder which one they're going to align with from here on out? The Ukrainian government is not a group of fascists, I can't believe people are buying this nonsense.
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I'm not sure if you've looked at a map recently but the US has had Moscow surrounded since about 1952. Ukraine is not a vital part of a counter-Russian alliance, they already have bases in Turkey, the Baltic States, Japan, Poland and Romania. Ukraine joining NATO protects Ukraine from further Russian aggression, while the US gains rather little from it except spiting Putin.

If you're interested in the good of the Ukranian people and not power games, it's quite easy to see why they would want to be aligning with Europe right now. Have you forgotten that this nonsense started because the Ukrainian people wanted to align with Europe, not Russia, and their leader wouldn't listen? Or do you believe the whole Euromaiden movement was secretly orchestrated by US spiesUkrainian

Are you sure the Ukrainian want to align with Europe or just a just foreign backed fascists? Also the cabinet is full of members of the far right and oligarchs. Russia is no saint but acting like these protests have anything to do with aspirations of the Ukrainian people and not foreign powers and a core of wealthy people is absurd.

http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/02/28/ukrainian-democracy-a-barrier-to-washingtons-goals/

Ukraine is far more divided than people admit.
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The US had Moscow surrounded? How do you think the world works? China, Eastern Europe, and Western Asia are US pawns or something?
 
antonz said:
The Ukraine situation serves two purposes. It helps fulfill Putins dream of a renewed Soviet Union and it distracts the populous from his failures. Russian economy hasn't improved like he has promised and most of his promises have been bullshit.

Putin has been getting compared to Brezhnev due to having a similar success rate with the economy etc. Brezhnev was strong militarily but basically led the USSR to collapse economically. It just took a few years after he died to do it.

Soviet propaganda is still very strong in the minds of a huge portion of the population considering almost 1/3 of all Russians are over 60 years of age so drum up an Imaginary Nazi army and suddenly your poll numbers jump 20-30%.

Russia loves its little wars as they are called to distract the people from reality.
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Russia isn't the only major country that does those same things to distract its population...
 
Dead Man said:
The US had Moscow surrounded? How do you think the world works? China, Eastern Europe, and Western Asia are US pawns or something?
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In terms of having bases and the ability to launch from said locations, in the event that the US was to actually attack Russia there is not really a plausible scenario that most of those countries would be saying no.
 
Zen said:
In terms of having bases and the ability to launch from said locations, in the event that the US was to actually attack Russia there is not really a plausible scenario that most of those countries would be saying no.
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why not, not everyone is fond of war you know.
 
Visa and Mastercard have joined in on the sanctions. Anyone with an account at Bank Rossiya now have frozen accounts

BjPYkKCCQAAzfJV.jpg
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Ukraine and EU Formally sign Political Association Agreement which begins Ukraine's process of moving into Europe
 
antonz said:
Visa and Mastercard have joined in on the sanctions. Anyone with an account at Bank Rossiya now have frozen accounts



Ukraine and EU Formally sign Political Association Agreement which begins Ukraine's process of moving into Europe
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I like this, but I could see it escalating things.
 
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