I personally would assume $500 is at a point you'd only be getting enthusiasts. Apple is able to get away with that price because of Apple Tax, and while I don't like that, they're marking up the price whereas these platforms, if they want to use current technologies, will be selling at a loss. And to be fair to your argument about launches for the enthusiasts, that seems right, but Microsoft and especially Sony would have to do good to pull the trigger on a price drop that enters the range that's more accessible to regular consumers when that peters out. Sony was a year too late on that draw with the PS3, but perhaps they waited for a price drop to come hand in hand with the slim model, but that was a period of slow momentum for Sony.
$300-$400 for the base model of a console seems perfectly fine, and the bundles seem like easier pills to swallow if it gets out of that threshold. For Wii U, $350 seems like a ripoff, but it's an easier pill to swallow for people buying the bundle model at that price as all of the extras that come with that version are far more expensive than the extra $50 for the bundle. 3DS felt that way too at $250, but it came with two games pre-installed to the hardware, which you could desperately justify as $25 games.