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[DopeyFish]

According to the contract they didn't have to once Reach managed to exceed a revenue threshold.

That was to buy themselves from MS, not exclusivity rights.

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

Microsoft still holds interest in the company if you read their statement above. they very well can negotiate things like that.

Pretty sure it's a pretty minor stake. Same deal with Sony owning like 10% in Square Enix.

 

[Xamdou]

Have no idea what is going to happen with Destiny, but isn't that contract outdated? No use in referencing it anymore.

If I had to guess, Destiny will be released this way:

Xbox 360
PS3
Durango Timed Exclusive

But that isn't much an exclusive, anyway. Most people who want the game will buy it on 360 first and PS3 second since that is where the install base is. Durango Destiny is more of a bone thrown to MS to keep them happy.

Sounds about right.

 

[B.O.O.M]

Before anything I actually want to see Destiny...then I can start hoping for a multiplat release. I know it's Bungie but who knows, it might not be a type of game that would interest me personally

However I'm VERY interested to see third party exclusives for both Orbis and Durango Hope for some bombs news wise on both

 

[Gordon0Freeman]

Do they even have the development and man power to do that? Sounds ambitious.

Bungie employs 350+ and still hiring. Sounds like enough, although I know nothing about video game development.

 

[Pooya]

Pretty sure it's a pretty minor stake. Same deal with Sony owning like 10% in Square Enix.

and they partner with Square Enix for lots of things, like promotion and publishing of latest FFXIII games in Asia and Japan? along with timed deals and lots of other things ?....

 

[Karak]

The knowns are going to be far less interesting than the unknowns. Many of the studios will be showing things that aren't sequels and aren't even from teams that have done anything together before. A good mix for excellent and shitty stuff. But aside from the things we can expect it is the games, genres, and ideas that are unexpected that will garner the most attention. It will be the original IP's of this year that reward many of us with the sequels we want later on.

 

[XtremeXpider]

Have no idea what is going to happen with Destiny, but isn't that contract outdated? No use in referencing it anymore.

If I had to guess, Destiny will be released this way:

Xbox 360
PS3
Durango Timed Exclusive

But that isn't much an exclusive, anyway. Most people who want the game will buy it on 360 first and PS3 second since that is where the install base is. Durango Destiny is more of a bone thrown to MS to keep them happy.

The next gen is the (time) exclusive.

 

[RoboPlato]

The knowns are going to be far less interesting than the unknowns. Many of the studios will be showing things that aren't sequels and aren't even from teams that have done anything together before. A good mix for excellent and shitty stuff. But aside from the things we can expect it is the games, genres, and ideas that are unexpected that will garner the most attention. It will be the original IP's of this year that reward many of us with the sequels we want later on.

Yeah, outside of exclusive stuff I'm expecting a ton of interesting new IPs from third parties next gen. Watch_Dogs looks really promising and if 1313 is more than just a visual powehouse Star Wars fans will eat it up.

 

[Xamdou]

The next gen (Xbox 720 Durango) is the (time) exclusive.

Fixed for ya.

 

[XtremeXpider]

Fixed for ya.

Thanks xD

 

[deviljho]

How much better is the Durango CPU over the 360 CPU? And the same for the GPUs? Is this something we can estimate well?

 

[CrunchinJelly]

The next gen is the (time) exclusive.

With the rising costs of development it's gonna be harder and harder to get third party exclusives tied up outside of super niche weeaboo shit.

 

[specialguy]

How much better is the Durango CPU over the 360 CPU? And the same for the GPUs? Is this something we can estimate well?

i'm no techie but...

mm, the flops on the cpu's are about the same, but in the real world the jag cores should be way better. much easier to code for.

the gpu is about 5x 360 gpu in flops. 360 gpu =240 gflops durango =1.2 teraflops.

raw flops dont tell the whole story though, the durango gpu should be much more efficient too, because it's so much more advanced. so it should be well over 5 times better in practice.

 

[XtremeXpider]

i'm no techie but...

mm, the flops on the cpu's are about the same, but in the real world the jag cores should be way better. much easier to code for.

the gpu is about 5x 360 gpu in flops. 360 gpu =240 gflops durango =1.2 teraflops.

raw flops dont tell the whole story though, the durango gpu should be much more efficient too, because it's so much more advanced. so it should be well over 5 times better in practice.

6x-8x? (numbers from the leaked doc)

 

[specialguy]

6x-8x? (numbers from the leaked doc)

might be a decent overall ballpark comparing the whole systems...

in ram you're looking at 10x+ for games, obviously, 5gb vs 480 mb.

 

[deviljho]

i'm no techie but...

mm, the flops on the cpu's are about the same, but in the real world the jag cores should be way better. much easier to code for.

the gpu is about 5x 360 gpu in flops. 360 gpu =240 gflops durango =1.2 teraflops.

raw flops dont tell the whole story though, the durango gpu should be much more efficient too, because it's so much more advanced. so it should be well over 5 times better in practice.

plus the dsp... i'm really interested in software applications for the new kinect. seems exciting.

 

[Monumental]

A long one that ended poorly and caused them to split up. I don't think Bungie is playing any favors here.

A relationship that ends poorly is Microsoft making everyone at Bungie continue making Halo and most of the old guard leaves bitter and angry and starts their own studio while poaching a bunch of coworkers.

What Bungie got was something unheard of; where Microsoft allowed them complete freedom and autonomy and even created an entire studio so their baby was well taken care of in nurturing hands. It's either naivety or plain rival-fanboism that makes someone believe that Microsoft and Bungie left each other on bad terms.

Also, Bungie's and a large amount of Activision's COD success has entirely to do with Microsoft and the Xbox. Hell Microsoft even gives Activision a part of Xbox LIVE's revenue. If you don't realize why there'd be some "favours" there, then you don't know how this industry works.

EDIT: And by favours I mean there was an obvious 3-way negotiation between Activision /Bungie/Microsoft to focus the first release on Microsoft's platforms, to establish the base there. Subsequent releases may be multiplatform, but look how that's worked out for Mass Effect. The vast majority of sales are on Xbox.

 

[SlickShoesRUCrazy]

I understand that flops are not the best measure in figuring out how powerful a gpu, well simply because everybody says it lol

but, this will probably come off as a dumb haha.

the jump in flops from the first xbox to the 360 from just the gpu was like 40x wasn't it? I mean the first xbox's gpu was like 6gflops and the 360 was 240gflops. 40x jump in 4 years is huge.

And we are expecting the durango gpu to only be 6-8 times the flops of the 360 gpu?

I guess I just don't get the significant roll everything else plays because to me it seems like such an insignificant jump after 8 years.

and yes, my tech knowledge is totally basic so I apologize if my ignorance offends you.

 

[Karak]

I understand that flops are not the best measure in figuring out how powerful a gpu, well simply because everybody says it lol

but, this will probably come off as a dumb haha.

the jump in flops from the first xbox to the 360 from just the gpu was like 40x wasn't it? I mean the first xbox's gpu was like 6gflops and the 360 was 240gflops. 40x jump in 4 years is huge.

And we are expecting the durango gpu to only be 6-8 times the flops of the 360 gpu?

I guess I just don't get the significant roll everything else plays because to me it seems like such an insignificant jump after 8 years.

and yes, my tech knowledge is totally basic so I apologize if my ignorance offends you.

People can give other examples but one that we use sometimes is comparing vehicle engines in the past versus those currently being produced.

In the past if you wanted a car to get you from here to there faster, you put in a bigger engine, and fed it more gas through various systems. Then efficiency came and less and less displacement(size) was needed as other systems began popping up like turbos and superchargers and tighter tolerances. Additionally, better, lighter, smaller, materials came into the picture, making the frame stronger but more lightweight, more efficient in every way. The job was the same. To get you here to there and they did the job in the same, or less time, with less brute force and more efficiency. They utilized different systems and many times their overall horsepower(car TFLOPS) doesn't look that impressive.

Computing is the same. Efficiency in everything from API's, to the silicon, to the number of cores, have increased but the overall speed of around 4ghz has stayed the same for awhile. Yet if you compared an older intel 4ghz to a newer one they would get plowed in every way. Flops can be useful but it is a very strict measurement of a particular thing. The gaming systems, ALL console gaming systems, have had some kind of custom hardware within them to make things efficient, even if it was just the CPU core being slightly different than PC cores. The 360's for example.

This generation is really no different and these systems are meant to do the most with what they have for the uses their manufacturers have outlined for them.

 

[SlickShoesRUCrazy]

Ignoring all computer talk for a second. Think efficiency.
In the past if you wanted a faster car to get you from here to there, you put in a bigger engine, and fed it more gas through various systems.

Then efficiency came and less and less cylinders were needed as other systems began popping up like turbos and superchargers and tighter tolerances, better, lighter, smaller, materials came into the picture.
The job was the same. To get you here to there and they did the job in the same, or less time, with less brute force and more efficiency.

Computing is the same. Efficiency in everything from API's to the silicon to the number of cores have increased but the overall speed of around 4ghz has stayed the same for awhile. Yet if you compared an older intel 4ghz to a newer one they would get plowed in every way.

ok ok, I think I understand where you are coming from. Its sort of like the F150 3.7L V-6 w/ ecoboost. Has more horspower/torque then then the 5.0L V-8 that doesn't have ecoboost.


but I mean, even with that efficiency don't you still need powerful base to start with? I mean if the the base gpu for the durango is 1.2tflops, through efficiency and any other bells and whistles, is it physically possibly to match a gpu that is 3+ tflops but via brute force?

 

[DopeyFish]

NV2A(Xbox GPU) was like 22 GFLOPS

We can't get gains like Xbox to 360 anymore because the cooling required

The GPUs exist but they just run way too hot

 

[specialguy]

I understand that flops are not the best measure in figuring out how powerful a gpu, well simply because everybody says it lol

but, this will probably come off as a dumb haha.

the jump in flops from the first xbox to the 360 from just the gpu was like 40x wasn't it? I mean the first xbox's gpu was like 6gflops and the 360 was 240gflops. 40x jump in 4 years is huge.

And we are expecting the durango gpu to only be 6-8 times the flops of the 360 gpu?

I guess I just don't get the significant roll everything else plays because to me it seems like such an insignificant jump after 8 years.

and yes, my tech knowledge is totally basic so I apologize if my ignorance offends you.

i'm skeptical of 6gflops on nv2a (xbox gpu code name).

this link said it was 21.6...http://forum.teamxbox.com/archive/index.php/t-422171.html

 

[Proelite]

Just like Xbox's gpu was not the advertised 60 gflops, Xenos was far from the advertised 240 gigaflops.

 

[DopeyFish]

Just like Xbox's gpu was not the advertised 60 gflops, Xenos was far from the advertised 240 gigaflops.

Only the secret sauce can save us

 

[Clay Davis]

With the rising costs of development it's gonna be harder and harder to get third party exclusives tied up outside of super niche weeaboo shit.

even timed exclusives? I'm sure full exclusives will be rare outside of a few very niche titles, but timed exclusive could end playing a big part next gen.

after all, timed exclusive, even if it's only for a couple of months do end up having the same effect as if it were a full exclusive. although maybe this won't happen either. maybe we'll only see digital exclusives of indie titles, etc.

 

[aaaaa0]

but I mean, even with that efficiency don't you still need powerful base to start with? I mean if the the base gpu for the durango is 1.2tflops, through efficiency and any other bells and whistles, is it physically possibly to match a gpu that is 3+ tflops but via brute force?

If that hypothetical 3+ tflops GPU's threads are spending 60% of their time twiddling their thumbs waiting for memory accesses, and the 1.2 tflops GPU is reading from a fast low-latency SRAM so its ALUs never stall out.... then, sure, it could physically be possible.

Though it would highly depend on what shader code you're actually trying to run.

 

[Saty]

Will the PC-like components of next-gen consoles make it easier for them to be emulated down the line on desktop PC's?

 

[Karak]

ok ok, I think I understand where you are coming from. Its sort of like the F150 3.7L V-6 w/ ecoboost. Has more horspower/torque then then the 5.0L V-8 that doesn't have ecoboost.


but I mean, even with that efficiency don't you still need powerful base to start with? I mean if the the base gpu for the durango is 1.2tflops, through efficiency and any other bells and whistles, is it physically possibly to match a gpu that is 3+ tflops but via brute force?

Technology that has moved forward means that the brute force(speed) doesn't account for everything.

You got it right with the ecoboost.
So think of it this way when someone says this car has a 4 cylinder, that doesn't immediately make you think (underpowered) anymore.
If it helps think of the overall speed as cylinders and you know that, depending on their makeup counting an arbitrary number doesn't work and having a low number in something doesn't instantly make it less than.

Also efficiencies in their overall makeup and how they are used can change this. A 1.6ghz running at 100% will be able to do more than something more powerful running at only 60% efficiency.(think of one as having a lesser efficient fuel system)

 

[SparkTR]

Will the PC-like components of next-gen consoles make it easier for them to be emulated down the line on desktop PC's?

No, that depends on other things. Xbox emulation is pretty terrible and that was closer to a PC than these consoles will be.

 

[DopeyFish]

If that hypothetical 3+ tflops GPU's threads are spending 60% of their time twiddling their thumbs waiting for memory accesses, and the 1.2 tflops GPU is reading from a fast low-latency SRAM so its ALUs never stall out.... then, sure, it could physically be possible.

Though it would highly depend on what shader code you're actually trying to run.

How long is typically the longest shaders in a game? (in terms of cycles)- excluding anomalies, of course

 

[REMEMBER CITADEL]

A long one that ended poorly and caused them to split up. I don't think Bungie is playing any favors here.

Poorly? Hardly. Microsoft has always treated them well, giving them great budgets, great marketing and as much time as they needed (if you can recall, Microsoft was hoping Halo 3 would be ready for PS3's launch, but it needed more time, so Bungie got it). Even the split-up was amicable, they could have easily said "No, we're keeping both the Halo IP and the Bungie brand. If you want to leave, you'll have to start from scratch.", but that's not what happened. In fact, I can't think of another similar split-up with so much good will on both sides (even in the Nintendo-Rare case, Nintendo didn't outright own Rare).

Now, I'm not saying that means anything when it comes to Destiny, but I do think you're trying to paint the Microsoft-Bungie relationship as more strained than it ever has been.

 

[specialguy]

No, that depends on other things. Xbox emulation is pretty terrible and that was closer to a PC than these consoles will be.

I thought I understood it that systems get more powerful, it becomes more difficult/impossible to emulate them.

Thus good emulation stopped at some line in the sand in the past...SNES, easy. PS3, good luck, no matter how much power you throw at it.

 

[dragonelite]

How long is typically the longest shaders in a game? (in terms of cycles)- excluding anomalies, of course

Biggest problem on gpu is branching. In openCL it is when there is a branch the execution time of that part of code is the sum of the branches.

A better example

if(objectInLight){
*spend 300 cycles*
}
else {
*spend 100 cycles*
}

This piece of code would take 400 cycles to execute in openCL.
Not sure last time i saw this in the documentation was 2 months ago. Could have it wrong and maybe DirectX and openGL(not enough experience in those api) does it a other way.
What you want to do mostly is just calculate everything keep the gpu busy, and only write(branch on writing) the result back that are good.

 

[Manmademan]

I thought I understood it that systems get more powerful, it chick.es more difficult/impossible to emulate them.

Thus good emulation stopped at some line in the sand in the past...SNES, easy. PS3, good luck, no matter how much power you throw at it.

not really. I don't know why your line in the sand stops at snes, when ps1 emulation has been perfect for years now, and ps2 emulation is easily done now given a strong enough PC.

ps3 can't be done yet in software, but probably will by the time we're ready for ps5 or xbox4

 

[Feindflug]

even timed exclusives? I'm sure full exclusives will be rare outside of a few very niche titles, but timed exclusive could end playing a big part next gen.

after all, timed exclusive, even if it's only for a couple of months do end up having the same effect as if it were a full exclusive. although maybe this won't happen either. maybe we'll only see digital exclusives of indie titles, etc.

My bet is that we'll see timed exclusives like Bioshock at least for the first few years from MS, Sony probably won't bother and focus again on their first party line-up.

It's gonna be interesting to see if MS will bother again with the Japanese market and go after some Japanese exclusives again, Sony will probably grab some exclusives from there as well but Wii U looks like the console where the majority of Japanese devs will go - Ninty may be more aggressive in grabbing titles for their system than we thought...the next 2 years will be really interesting - next gen is here and looks like a fun ride full of megatons, betrayaltons and disappointments.

 

[-ImaginaryInsider]

even timed exclusives? I'm sure full exclusives will be rare outside of a few very niche titles, but timed exclusive could end playing a big part next gen.

after all, timed exclusive, even if it's only for a couple of months do end up having the same effect as if it were a full exclusive. although maybe this won't happen either. maybe we'll only see digital exclusives of indie titles, etc.

Of all the titles that I could see MS paying hardcore to be a timed-exclusive, it would be Bungie/Destiny. If Destiny is indeed ready to be a launch or launch-window game, it's just too good of a fit for them not to pony up the cash for a timed exclusive, it's the perfect way for them to show what a next-gen console can do... it's effectively a throw-back to Halo launching with Xbox 1.

 

[Brad Grenz]

Of all the titles that I could see MS paying hardcore to be a timed-exclusive, it would be Bungie/Destiny. If Destiny is indeed ready to be a launch or launch-window game, it's just too good of a fit for them not to pony up the cash for a timed exclusive, it's the perfect way for them to show what a next-gen console can do... it's effectively a throw-back to Halo launching with Xbox 1.

Only if you assume any exclusivity is for sale.

 

[Majanew]

Have no idea what is going to happen with Destiny, but isn't that contract outdated? No use in referencing it anymore.

If I had to guess, Destiny will be released this way:

Xbox 360
PS3
Durango Timed Exclusive

But that isn't much an exclusive, anyway. Most people who want the game will buy it on 360 first and PS3 second since that is where the install base is. Durango Destiny is more of a bone thrown to MS to keep them happy.

It's Activision/Bungie throwing me a bone. Destiny on current gen consoles can take a hike. Next-gen is the way!

 

[mrklaw]

That post by sebbi, and his subsequent posts in the linked thread, are fantastic. I actually remember his nick from back when I was active on B3D. Thanks for linking that, it was a great read.

Yeah, I remember those too.

Has anyone done back of an envelope math to see how estimated bandwidth and amounts would translate to orbis and Durango?

Worst case scenario is that Durango has too much ram and is limited by bandwidth, and orbis has too little ram and its bandwidth is wasted. Ideal console would be orbis bandwidth and Durango amount.

A lot depends on the capacity of the GPU too.

 

[DeFiBkIlLeR]

not really. I don't know why your line in the sand stops at snes, when ps1 emulation has been perfect for years now, and ps2 emulation is easily done now given a strong enough PC.

Ps1 emulation is far from perfect...very few Ps1 games run without any errors under emulation today.

 

[Manmademan]

Ps1 emulation is far from perfect...very few Ps1 games run without any errors under emulation today.

ps1 emulation is functionally perfect on ps3. games with errors are so rare as to be nonexistent, unless you're doing things like speeding up disc load which can break compatibility.

is it 100 percent accurate to the ps1? no, but then again SNES emulation didn't hit that bar until 2012, and only one emulator bothers to aim for it

 

[DeFiBkIlLeR]

ps1 emulation is functionally perfect on ps3. games with errors are so rare as to be nonexistent, unless you're doing things like speeding up disc load which can break compatibility.

is it 100 percent accurate to the ps1? no, but then again SNES emulation didn't hit that bar until 2012, and only one emulator bothers to aim for it

I suppose it's how you define 'perfect', on the surface it may look like it, but if it's doing all sorts of exotic hacks in the background,like 99% of PC based emulators do, to keep the show running, is it?

Like you say, cycle accurate emulation like BSNES, is, and probably always will be, too much trouble to be worth it, certainly when talking about consoles emulating consoles.

 

[-ImaginaryInsider]

Only if you assume any exclusivity is for sale.

I think 3rd parties turning down more money on a new IP for a brief period of limited exclusivity for the first 3-6 months of a new console cycle is unlikely. I also think either console maker could pay and get Destiny as a timed exclusive, I just think it's more likely that MS would pay stupid amounts of money for it given it would be an easy early way to generate hype for Durango.

It a no-lose situation for Activision/Bungie, a timed exclusive it going to generate them more money, and this early in the generation it's going to get a lot of hype and fanfare on both new consoles.

 

[Clay Davis]

My bet is that we'll see timed exclusives like Bioshock at least for the first few years from MS, Sony probably won't bother and focus again on their first party line-up.

It's gonna be interesting to see if MS will bother again with the Japanese market and go after some Japanese exclusives again, Sony will probably grab some exclusives from there as well but Wii U looks like the console where the majority of Japanese devs will go - Ninty may be more aggressive in grabbing titles for their system than we thought...the next 2 years will be really interesting - next gen is here and looks like a fun ride full of megatons, betrayaltons and disappointments.

this is what I'm thinking. some third parties exclusives from either sony or microsoft will end being the next gen equivalent of buoshock, mass effect, dead rising, etc.

but the first year, possibly two, there will be a number of timed (or not) exclusives and at least a few of those will go on to be the next big franchise.

Of all the titles that I could see MS paying hardcore to be a timed-exclusive, it would be Bungie/Destiny. If Destiny is indeed ready to be a launch or launch-window game, it's just too good of a fit for them not to pony up the cash for a timed exclusive, it's the perfect way for them to show what a next-gen console can do... it's effectively a throw-back to Halo launching with Xbox 1.

agreed, but I think microsoft will spread the cash more than people think. destiny might make a good bullet point, but they'll want to branch out like they did this gen with games like mass effect, the outfit and others.

 

[InaudibleWhispa]

Whether it's Destiny or not, Microsoft will definitely be setting up some third party exclusive parnerships. Their Redmond publishing studio has been recruiting to create a "Core Games Publishing team to partner with the best developers in the world to create the next great core franchises for this generation and future generations of Xbox."

"MS Studio Publishing is not your typical industry publishing organization. We have great partners. They can create great games. Our development positions are about how to push the boundaries even further than their schedule will allow them. The developers in MS Studio Publishing focus on development scenarios that could truly change a genre and make the Xbox’s ecosystem shine!

"You will work with an experienced team at Microsoft Studios and with world-class development partners. Our job is to add new blood to our stable of AAA franchises. We have huge ambitions for what we want to accomplish, and we need a great producer to be able to help us get where we want to go."

 

[Brad Grenz]

I think 3rd parties turning down more money on a new IP for a brief period of limited exclusivity for the first 3-6 months of a new console cycle is unlikely. I also think either console maker could pay and get Destiny as a timed exclusive, I just think it's more likely that MS would pay stupid amounts of money for it given it would be an easy early way to generate hype for Durango.

It a no-lose situation for Activision/Bungie, a timed exclusive it going to generate them more money, and this early in the generation it's going to get a lot of hype and fanfare on both new consoles.

Accepting money from one just means turning down money from customers of the other. When you're trying to launch a hugely expensive, decade long, multi-game franchise it seems extremely risky to be placing bets on any particular platform for a relatively small, short term gain. What if Sony runs away with this generation? The last thing Bungie and Activision need is PlayStation fans resenting and badmouthing Destiny as long as it's around.

 

[Can Crusher]

actually looking back at the contract here, I remember this part:



this part:
"the parties acknowledge and agree that the budget set forth in the payment schedule set forth on Exhibit E attached, hereto is scoped to delivery of only the Xbox 360 SKU (Plus Content Pipeline) for Destiny Game #1, the parties currently..."

budget of the supposed 720 version, where that's coming from then? doesn't mention anything.



there is no mention of PS4 whatsoever for the first game, it's starting second game that they are considering it. Destiny game #1 platforms are 360, 720, PS3. not even PC.

Yeah I knew it.

Destiny 1 is Durango exclusive. People just keep making it look like MS is run by a bunch of morons, but they are not.

 

[Tripp Daily]

And one thing it is pretty unquestionable that they have some high level talent. We will see if they can fit something into that genre and keep it more horror than full tilt FPS. It will be interesting to also see if they stretch their legs or call it safe on their first game. Of all the new studios Black Tusk actually interests me the most. Simply because, in the long run, we know more about them than the others.

Also there are the PGR people and what they may do.

I thought bizzare creations was dissolved. Who owns the rights to PGR now? And where did the team end up?

 

[FordGTGuy]

I thought bizzare creations was dissolved. Who owns the rights to PGR now? And where did the team end up?

Microsoft has always owned the rights to PGR. Don't expect Playground games or Turn 10 to develop a new PGR as both are already set on a Forza schedule, I really don't think Microsoft is going to have three first party racing game studios either. If PGR were to come back it would have to be a 2nd party developer.