Ol No Bones
Banned
There were no specs that leaked from that summit. Only one tweet from a crytek guy that liked the summit. The tweet was removed quickly
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VGLeaks rumor: Durango CPU Overview
- Thread starter DieH@rd
- Start date
Well is was a last minute change and this leaked out a month before hand and most of the sony staff didnt even know about the change. this also was something they can change at the last minute. In fact this is one of the major benefits of the clamshell design of the gddr5 ram. It last minutes changes very easy. Sony could switch from 2GB to 4GB to 8GB without changing nothing but the ram chips. No other redesign or changes needed.After it was pointed out that the original VGleak Leaked documents indicated they were over a year old...a single, one-word reply came back from VGleaks covering their ass, by responding thusly:
"2013"
I call bullshit...for the simple reason that VGleaks cannot lose. If the original "leaked" specs happen to be in any way accurate, VGleaks simply can say "told you so". End of story.
If the "leaked" specs do not conform to the actual final Durango console, as announced, they simply say something to the effect that "new shit has come to light, and we were reporting on the best information that we had at the time". Again, end of story.
THEY CAN'T LOSE.
And the more hits their site gets...the greater their potential revenue.
P.S. -- An example of this has already occured with the PS4 spec change to 8Gb GDDR5 RAM.
What is their answer to this discrepency? Basically, it is ..."gee, it occurred at the last minute, how were we to know"
Now most things cannot be changed at the last minute. What could be changed would be clock speeds. That is about it...
Deuterium
Member
Hi upJTboogie,
I by no means claim to be a GAF expert...but I get the sense that VGleaks credibility pretty much depends on the weather, in much the same way Kokatu does, here on GAF. On fair days, and depending on whether you agree with their prognostications, Kokatu is highly respected. On rainy days, it seems just the opposite.
I am still trying to develop a more consistent and coherent scientific theory of this phenomena.
It's all good, this is all speculation after all, anything is possible, I have no doubt that MS has something big planned they've been way more quiet than usual. I don't see why most think the Xbox 720 will be gimped, because the way I see it they'll probably end up even in the long run.
Deuterium
Member
So...assuming the >year old Durango specs are accurate...what changes could Microsoft make in the 16 or so months prior to official announcement??
P.S.-- I am using Jan 2012 as the baseline for date of the Durango specification document from VGleaks...and May 2013 being a guesstimate for an official announcement by Microsoft (hence the 16 months.).
DDR3 RAM, clock bumps either up or down depending on yields
There where, in fact a single slide of it has been posted in this thread, although edited heavily
statham
Member
upJTboogie has a style, he quickly posted a anti used games thread when it was xbox, but the next day when PS4 will probably do the same thing wasn't quite so vocal. Kidbeta launched as being a programmer, which he doesn't talk about anymore.
Clock speeds or ram chips. Nothing else. People forget here console are develop years out.
We have no data that states anything is incorrect in these leaks. Like the ps4 ram you mention, that was leaked way before the announcement.
VGleaks has way too detail information for it to be an design microsoft just threw out last year. To make any major changes beside clock speed/ram it would take a redesign. then they in fact state the info is from 2013 and we had insider on gaf confirm nothing has change. this same insider stated the ps4 ram speed had change way before anyone else.
Unless we have some new info everything is just wishful thinking.
Uno Venova
Banned
Bad memory dude, there hasn't been anything showing PS4 is as likely to do used games blocks like there is for the next Xbox.
I don't think I've ever seen Kotaku been respected here, Jason, who's from the site and posts here, is always annoyed about that fact.
Didn't Sony change the cpu in the ps4 a year ago?
statham
Member
6 weeks , we will see.
Lets be honest, I don't think Kotaku gets respect anywhere lol
Deuterium
Member
All valid points. However, I am of the opinion (and that is all it is, my opinion), that we are not giving proper consideration to the shrinking in lead-time that has occurred between generations (i.e., 2005 PS3 and 360 versus 2013 PS4 and Nextbox). Every facet of the high tech industry has sped up (it seems), and that includes the time frames involved from Master Specification==>initial Prototypes/proof of concept==>Beta kits==>Finalized hardware==>Production
My point being...there now exists (as compared to last generation-- 7+ years ago) improved / shortened lead-times and logistics which allow for significant changes in technical specifications to take place much later, (comparatively) in a console's pre-production evolution. These shortened development life-cycles are not limited to gaming consoles, but are evident throughout the high tech industry.
George Claw M.D.
Member
Totilo is about the only person from Kotaku that seems to be mostly respected on GAF. That's my impression as an observer anyway. I've never openly praised or bashed Kotaku myself.
Didn't someone mentioned that these consoles need at least a year of testing to make sure everything in the final kit functions properly?
If that's true I don't think any major changes can happen other than up clock speeds and raise RAM capacity. But who knows MS got billions in the bank, they can do anything.
If that's true I don't think any major changes can happen other than up clock speeds and raise RAM capacity. But who knows MS got billions in the bank, they can do anything.
Proelite
Member
Actually the increasing complexity of the devices have lengthened the development time.
That or they're adding something other than just Kinect 2, maybe that illumiRoom thing?
Deuterium
Member
Hi Proelite,
I am not necessarily disagreeing with you. However, let's use new GPU advances and model releases as a barometer. Certainly, GPU architecture has increased in complexity over the past 8 years.
So...is there any data that shows the pace of GPU innovation and release of new products has slowed and lead-times lengthened over the past 8 years, for the two big players (AMD and NVIDIA).
I actually have no idea as to the answer to this question...but I will be interested in anyone's feedback.
Syphon Filter
Member
i dont think MS meant to undercut sony this gen. it was sony that included blu ray and assumed people will still buy it.
BRocknRolla
Member
Pretty sure illumiRoom is a fantasy product/project. Sort of like those original videos of Kinect that never came to pass. I don't believe it has a practical application, nor would it work in most people's living rooms. Then again, those criticisms didn't stop the Kinect from being created.
That and they had a year out on the market so the price for parts dropped making the 360 even cheaper to make.
JohnnySasaki86
Member
A change in CPU from one dev kit to another does not mean a change was made to the final/orignal design of the console.
Early dev kits always have temporary hardware in place, to represent the final hardware as close as possible at the time, until the actual hardware becomes available. Its place holder stuff. Most likely an 8 core jaguar was always the plan, due to the TDP budget. An 8 core Jaguar is something that AMD is not even developing, putting two 4 core CPU's together is highly custom, so it likely wasn't available yet for an early dev kit, so steamroller was the closest thing at the time.
No. Not if the rumors are correct that MS vision for this console is one thats much more than just a game machine. Johnathan Blow pretty much confirmed this to be true this week. Its rumored that a Kinect will be bundled or maybe included inside the hardware in every Xbox. This would raise the price of the console, just like the tablet controller raised the price of the Wii U.
The Wii U's hardware specs are barely beyond 360/PS3, but yet its $300-$350. Its because of the $120 controller.
JohnnySasaki86
Member
.
CrunchinJelly
formerly cjelly
Not to say this point may not be true, but Blow has quite clearly stated he is not privy to any details of the next Xbox. Part of the reason The Witness is on PS4 is because that's the machine he was aware of.
Proelite
Member
Not to mention that 360 is already much more than a gaming machine.
I am confident in saying that Durango at launch will be more of a gaming machine that the current 360.
The Witness is on the PS4 because microsoft decided to be a dick to him, not because he wasn't aware of Durango, but you do make a good point.
Just look at amd. they are still using a gpu that were released at the end of 2011/early 2012. Now there are report they are not going to have any "new" gpu this year beside a refresh of current gpus that are just re-branded.
Deuterium
Member
Hi USC-fan,
I was enquiring about the general trend in GPU releases, over the past 8 years...not the last year or so. Focusing on just the past 12-14 months, and a single manufacturer (e.g. AMD), can introduce non-relevant effects (at least as it relates to this discussion)...such as financial troubles intrinsic to the Company in question, which are unrelated to the general pace of product advancement/releases, everything else being equal.
Okay look at nvidia:
back in the 200 series day they would release 2 refreshes a year. 200 and 300 series both in the same year and the 7000/8000 series before that. PS3 is based on the 7000 series so that goes back to the time you were talking about.
Since then they have went to one refresh a year to now where they are still using card released last year. It move to now almost 2 years before we get a refresh.
http://www.tomshardware.com/news/Radeon-GeForce-Delay-GPU-Next-Generation,20838.html
I do see anything that back up the claim that gpu need less lead time. It seems the opposite is true.
Deuterium
Member
Okay, thanks for the feedback. I wasn't sure what the answer would be...but, according to your info., it appears the GPU product cycles have been increasing rather than decreasing.
shinra-bansho
Member
Where's this idea that it's become easier to radically change the design of a console nowadays coming from exactly? If they're actually changing the number of compute units or the type or RAM etc. I imagine this would be at least a year's set-back. Of course, I don't imagine Microsoft is modifying its plans simply because Sony have shown their hand. They have specific reasons for their approach; I don't see why "8GB GDDR5!!!" would change that.
Regarding the Durango leaked docs, I thought the general implication was that those were the target specifications - but people didn't actually have those target specifications in early 2012. Presumably, they were working on Alpha hardware. However, as developers are now working on Beta hardware, the leaked target specifications of that documentation have essentially been confirmed by various corroborating sources (EDGE's sources, Eurogamer's sources, lherre, fraudulently obtained hardware by SuperDAE.)
Regarding the Durango leaked docs, I thought the general implication was that those were the target specifications - but people didn't actually have those target specifications in early 2012. Presumably, they were working on Alpha hardware. However, as developers are now working on Beta hardware, the leaked target specifications of that documentation have essentially been confirmed by various corroborating sources (EDGE's sources, Eurogamer's sources, lherre, fraudulently obtained hardware by SuperDAE.)
ChosenPredator
Banned
I think so to i'm sure their listening to the massive doubt most people have about the system, I think their really going to go balls deep with showing off games then show another reason to keep you on the system so you never turn it off after you're done gaming.
ATI (AMD)
R300 - July 18, 2002
R420 - May 4, 2004
R520 - Oct. 5, 2005
R600 - May 14, 2007
RV770 - Jun 25, 2008
Cypress - Sep 23, 2009
Cayman - Dec 15, 2010
Tahiti - Jan 9, 2012
NVIDIA
NV30 - January 27, 2003
NV35 - May 12, 2003
NV40 - May 4, 2004
G70 - November 14, 2005
G80 - November 8, 2006
GT200 - June 17, 2008
GF100 - March 26, 2010
GK104 - March 22, 2012
GK110 - February 21, 2013
GK104 & GK110 are part of the same family. Basically Tahiti is AMD's GT200, only they dont have a node like 55nm Nvidia had at the time.
R300 - July 18, 2002
R420 - May 4, 2004
R520 - Oct. 5, 2005
R600 - May 14, 2007
RV770 - Jun 25, 2008
Cypress - Sep 23, 2009
Cayman - Dec 15, 2010
Tahiti - Jan 9, 2012
NVIDIA
NV30 - January 27, 2003
NV35 - May 12, 2003
NV40 - May 4, 2004
G70 - November 14, 2005
G80 - November 8, 2006
GT200 - June 17, 2008
GF100 - March 26, 2010
GK104 - March 22, 2012
GK110 - February 21, 2013
GK104 & GK110 are part of the same family. Basically Tahiti is AMD's GT200, only they dont have a node like 55nm Nvidia had at the time.
What does this even mean?
Just having more big exclusives than they do now?
Hard not to during launch time.
specialguy
Banned
It should be a weapon in their arsenal. I wouldn't be surprised though if initially they price similar to PS4, believing Super-Kinect et al make it competitive to PS4 to consumers regardless of a power deficit. Companies like money, I dont expect MS to be super aggressive on pricing initially.
Then I think if sales flag, you could see them lower below PS4.
shinra-bansho
Member
Even if Durango's BoM is lower than PS4 (with or without Kinect), I don't really see why Microsoft wouldn't simply price it the same anyway and try to sell at a profit/lower loss-lead.
The speculation seems to be that 32MB ESRAM is about equal in size/price to the added GPU muscle, which basically leaves RAM vs. peripherals
iiam until we know more about the Kinect 2 and the high-density GDDR5 market calms down) and the yen/dollar exchange rate (swung suddenly in Sony's favor over the past couple months.)It's a big enough launch for both companies that BOM probably has very, very little to do with initial MSRP though.
The speculation seems to be that 32MB ESRAM is about equal in size/price to the added GPU muscle, which basically leaves RAM vs. peripherals
It's a big enough launch for both companies that BOM probably has very, very little to do with initial MSRP though.
Is ESRAM really that expensive? I'm curious to see how it compared to GDDR5 prices.
googleplex
Member
Besides the crazy amount/type of RAM, there is nothing in the PS4 that should be really expensive. Sony should easily hit the 400-450 price point.
There's a long wall of speculation on die area over at b3d that seems to come to the conclusion that the Durango's rumored ESRAM ~= the size (and hence rough cost) of PS4's added GPU muscle. The GDDR5 is completely outside of this and another mystery area, since there's not really a fluid market in the newer, higher-density chips yet.
At least, this is my impression as a writer interpreting/regurgitating the tech talk rather than analyzing it myself.
Thanks, I'll go check it out.
specialguy
Banned
that ram is going to be very expensive. i think a 499 sku is in play. They will avoid 599 simply for the bad press it would create. 399/499 sounds reasonable.
i always have to keep reminding myself though, the actual cpu/gpu silicon in ps4/720 will be significantly less than last gen. ~300mm vs 500mm. so that'll be helpful in pricing.
It all depends on the type of pricing they get. Which we don't know about yet.
Maximilian Kolbe
Member
BoM doesn't really matter for MS to decide the 720 price,they have so much freedom(aka money,at least more than Sony) to play the price war,whatever profit or loss at launch.
So i think they will wait Sony announce price first.
So i think they will wait Sony announce price first.
PSeye,not expensive,but still add up the cost
ionicbluebird
Member
Link?
SlickShoesRUCrazy
Member
He didn't confirm anything. He even admitted not knowing shit about the Xbox.
Basically just trying to get attention.
specialguy
Banned
slow times, slow times...wonder when our next hardware info bomb will be.
Nothing new. Blow is commenting based on the same rumoured specs we've been hearing for over a year.
He's comparing actual known specs for PS4, vs unconfirmed leaks about the next xbox.
http://gamer.blorge.com/2013/02/23/...publish-how-the-witness-became-ps4-exclusive/