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[Aquamarine]

Xbox One: 80M-90M
Playstation 4: 70M-80M
Wii U: 40M-50M

I'm pretty optimistic about this generation overall. I know the Wii U can sort of do a decent job selling as it gets cheaper, the PS4 is destined to sell high numbers, and so is the Xbox One.

Unlikely.

It has strained retailer and developer relationships across the world. Those wounds don't heal overnight.

And, it's really hard to elevate a project to significant success when it's already sold abysmally for a year and a half. There is too much precedent for its failure for that level of optimism.

 

[Megadragon15]

PS4: 80M
XBox One: 44M
Wii U: 13M
3DS: 65M
Vita: 8M

 

[Mory Dunz]

Xbox One 82M
PS4: 71M
Wii U: Discontinued

Ah, negative sales!!

Spoiler

It's actually happened before, which makes this joke less jokey.

 

[JayEH]

Anybody thinking that the PS4 will have a huge lead over Xbox One in the long run is crazy.

 

[boltz]

Came in here expecting to see the totally-wrong predicted sales chart from last gen and am disappoint.

 

[Ninja Scooter]

Anybody thinking that the PS4 will have a huge lead over Xbox One in the long run is crazy.

worldwide? Europe and Japan might ensure that. Even if they end up neck and neck in North America.

 

[daman824]

worldwide? Europe and Japan might ensure that. Even if they end up neck and neck in North America.

Hows the ps4 selling in Japan btw?

 

[rokkerkory]

X1: 65m
Ps4: 90m
Wii u: 10m

 

[MetroidPrimeRib]

Anybody thinking that the PS4 will have a huge lead over Xbox One in the long run is crazy.

It will have a lead I would think, but not a huge one.
I definitely don't expect this gen to be as close sales wise to the last one. Just Nintendo being the outlier on the other side this time.

 

[Lonely1]

Ps4: 50 M
XBOne: 35 M
Wii U: 15 M

 

[Zalman]

Anybody thinking that the PS4 will have a huge lead over Xbox One in the long run is crazy.

I wouldn't say that. Europe and Japan love PlayStation.

 

[Aquamarine]

Came in here expecting to see the totally-wrong predicted sales chart from last gen and am disappoint.

Dat analyst projections.

 

[daman824]

Don't think so personally. They really have no presence in mainland europe or Japan and I don't think they've got themselves a chance of winning anywhere. I also think its decreasing relevance will lead to decreasing sales as people stop caring about the xbox brand as much in the same way people did about the N64 (mass market wise at least.)

Perhaps it could be closer to 40m difference, but I'd probably sooner reduce my PS4 number than increase my Xb1 number.



Obviously not Wii U numbers wise, but I think there'll be some serious questions being asked next month after NPD, and when and if we ever find out worldwide numbers. I doubt the Xbox 1 will overtake the Wii U before the holidays (at which point it most likely will.)

Sure. But this gen will be at least 5 years. We aren't even half a year into it. Wait till that official price drop happens, wait till we see the heavy hitters, wait till we see kinectless xbone, ect.

 

[Poimandres]

Are there any brave souls out there that would predict the Xbone outselling the PS4?

PS4: 100 million
Xbone: 70 million
Wii U: 15 million

 

[kick51]

WiiU: 150 million

PS4: 70 million

Xbone: 30 million

 

[Phediuk]

Dat analyst projections.

To be fair, the Wii projection is spot-on.

 

[bomma_man]

the console market will shrink for the first time, while budgets will continue to balloon.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Anybody thinking that the PS4 will have a huge lead over Xbox One in the long run is crazy.

I would love to hear why exactly such a thought is "crazy" considering all the available data at present would incredibly suggest that line of though as not "crazy"

Are there any brave souls out there that would predict the Xbone outselling the PS4?

Several apparently

 

[Spinluck]

Some of the numbers in here lol.

 

[HaterIsHating]

PS4: 90M
Xbone: 70M
Wii U: 25M
3DS: 70M
Vita: 12M

Today's "XBone is dead" - people are tomorrow's "I am a gamer that's why I want all consoles" - people. As soon as XBOne drops in price, people will buy it, I'm pretty sure about that. Microsoft's bad (worst ever) marketing will be forgoten (gamers tend to forget such things). Right now there's no reason to buy both PS4 and XBone, that's why most get a PS4, in 3 years time that might be different, also due to a much lower price (and hopefully no kinect).

For Nintendo, I still believe that there will be s significant increase in sales, as soon as they make it clear that there will still be some major releases throughout the lifespan of the console. The belief of some users here, that after SSB no 'real' titles are being released and even Zelda gets cancelled is just laughable, to say the least. Nintendo made some mistakes, but it's not gonna kill itself, neither will it do nothing to prevent further damage.

 

[Rembrandt]

Don't think so personally. They really have no presence in mainland europe or Japan and I don't think they've got themselves a chance of winning anywhere. I also think its decreasing relevance will lead to decreasing sales as people stop caring about the xbox brand as much in the same way people did about the N64 (mass market wise at least.)

Perhaps it could be closer to 40m difference, but I'd probably sooner reduce my PS4 number than increase my Xb1 number.

I could easily see them winning America and the UK back. Microsoft's main problem is I don't think they properly know how to advertise the console. Hell, if they advertise Xbox Fitness before the year trial is over, I could see that being their killer app for the mainstream. With their focus on games and Phil hinting towards all these exclusives and revived franchises, I can see them swaying the hardcore over. They just need to get rid of some of their stupid policies and focus on showing why it costs $100 more currently. The hardware difference will never be as big as we make it off gaming sites, tbh. It's the cost + hardware that has Sony doing so well.

 

[Gator86]

I'm blown away some people think the bone will outsell the PS4. So last gen MS had the lower price, better multi plats, more established online, tons of money hat exclusives, and maximum impact from their big first party games, e.g. Halo and Gears. They wound up essentially tied with Sony. Now MS has none of those advantages and somehow handily outsells Sony? I can't even.

 

[The Weeknd]

The PS3 still hasn't reached saturation point because of it's price point. I don't see the PS4 dropping in price for awhile, if at all. They have no need as the market leader, especially if all MSFT can do is hope to catch up. And they will want to recoup losses from last generation. And finally, I don't think the graphical leap is going t be the driver of sales this generation, especially if the industries tastes continuing to consolidate. I see steamboxes grabbing a large section group once the OC1 hits.

I think the media has done a very poor job of overselling the next generation leap, and people will settle will not be as attached to their underpowered boxes, as true compelling games are released outside the capability of the consoles. I've seen an argument used against the xbox, that all the multiplats are inherently inferior, so why grab it. When steamboxes it, the same will go for the PS4. Especially IF, and it's a big if, developers start going linux.

But this is just my opinion, no need for attacks.

Graphical leap doesn't have to be, but third party multiplats are already going next gen only. Most of my friends who own Xbox Ones know nothing about inferior multiplats and so forth, not everyone is informed as us. Steam Box's? Really? Once again PS4 is selling great and on pace to do 15M this year, what stops it from selling? I'd understand if this was your stance pre-release but the hard data and history makes your opinion illogical.
Microsoft is going to be competitive to Sony, and every gen has an inevitable price cut when sales slow, do you honestly expect MSFT and Sony to shit their pants, while Steam Box's take over?

No. They will advertise, they will bring more games, pricecuts, and newer models to avoid poor sales, and once again, what is stopping the PS4's current momentum, with it's current library being barebones?

 

[Occam]

Xbox One: 80M-90M
Playstation 4: 70M-80M
Wii U: 40M-50M

It's like you are totally oblivious of what's going on on this planet we call "Earth".
Great comedy, as always.

 

[Zalman]

PS4: 90M
Xbone: 70M
Wii U: 25M
3DS: 70M
Vita: 12M

Today's "XBone is dead" - people are tomorrow's "I am a gamer that's why I want all consoles" - people. As soon as XBOne drops in price, people will buy it, I'm pretty sure about that. Microsoft's bad (worst ever) marketing will be forgoten (gamers tend to forget such things). Right now there's no reason to buy both PS4 and XBone, that's why most get a PS4, in 3 years time that might be different, also due to a much lower price (and hopefully no kinect).

For Nintendo, I still believe that there will be s significant increase in sales, as soon as they make it clear that there will still be some major releases throughout the lifespan of the console. The belief of some users here, that after SSB no 'real' titles are being released and even Zelda gets cancelled is just laughable, to say the least. Nintendo made some mistakes, but it's not gonna kill itself, neither will it do nothing to prevent further damage.

I agree, although I think the PS4 has a good chance of reaching 100 million.

 

[SwiftDeath]

I could easily see them winning America and the UK back. Microsoft's main problem is I don't think they properly know how to advertise the console. Hell, if they advertise Xbox Fitness before the year trial is over, I could see that being their killer app for the mainstream. With their focus on games and Phil hinting towards all these exclusives and revived franchises, I can see them swaying the hardcore over. They just need to get rid of some of their stupid policies and focus on showing why it costs $100 more currently. The hardware difference will never be as big as we make it off gaming sites, tbh. It's the cost + hardware that has Sony doing so well.

MS had a 60% lead over Sony last go round in the US, they sold over half, over 50% of their total WW sales of the 360 in the US

Are you suggesting a swing of 75% marketshare in XB1's favor in the US then? because that is what it would take to be competitive this gen from a sales perspective

 

[CLEEK]

Playstation 4: 100M
Xbox One: 50M
Wii U: 20M

 

[GamerJM]

Dat analyst projections.

When was this? I can't remember any point during the last generation where someone would predict such high sales for both PS3 and the Wii and such low sales for 360. It seems strange that he would predict such a high PS3 turnaround while simultaneously predicting such low growth for the 360 post-PS3 turnaround.

 

[ironcreed]

What the hell.

PS4: 65 million
Xbox One: 50 million
Wii U: 20 million

 

[TheLostBigBoss]

I'm actually from the future, so I feel extremely qualified to answer this.

PS4 40m.

XB1 Discontinued as of 2015 due to the division being sold off to Ebay.

Wii U 1.1b. Nintendo was bought be Elon Musk in late 2014. Subsidized the cost to sell the console at a mere $99. Using his vast sums he acquired every single third party publisher to develop exclusives for the WiiU.

Console exploded in India, China, and the Democratic Republic of Korea. Pakistan actually saw everyone having such a good time that they started mandating every person to own a WiiU. Due to this mandate, India and Pakistan mended their relationship by playing Mario Cart 8 and SSB4. They officially ended the nuclear standoff in 2017, and ushered in a new era of peace and stability in the region.

 

[Dire]

PS4 - 49million
XB1 - 28million

I expect this gen to fall flat. A few big reasons:

1. Poor hardware value. This gen is the first ever where this close to launch one can pick up a PC that outperforms consoles for a console comparable price.

2. Poor software value. Consoles are still in the $60+DLC+DLC+DLC+DLC mode. Although now you can also add a few +microtransactions to it as well. The entire rest of the game industry has moved onto to far more consumer friendly pricing models. You're paying $400+ for hardware that locks you into a terribly unfavorable pricing model.

3. No innovation. Last gen we had games like Oblivion touting features like their Radiant AI system and exhibiting interesting situations that could happen completely unscripted in worlds full of people following their own schedule with their own motivations. Stuff we take for granted now, but at the time it was unprecedented on consoles. This gen Sony/MS aren't even trying to claim any sort of innovation. I think a big part of the reason people were so anxious to hop into the next gen is that they were sick of last gen. It lasted too long and by the end was ending up a mess of derivative mush. Now we have this gen which is continuing on with the same sort of derivative mush except in higher res [sometimes] or with better textures.

4. Virtual Reality. Most people who play around with VR realize it's going to be the future of gaming. I'm one of them. I think this is going to be the wildcard. We already know Sony is developing their own VR solution and it's all but a complete certainty that Microsoft is as well. But Sony/Microsoft's hardware will suffer due to both hardware and software limitations and restrictions. But it's also a wildcard. Kinect+VR is an absolutely perfect fit. If Microsoft can somehow bring VR to life on their system then it could be a complete game changer.

 

[Ninja Scooter]

I could easily see them winning America and the UK back. Microsoft's main problem is I don't think they properly know how to advertise the console. Hell, if they advertise Xbox Fitness before the year trial is over, I could see that being their killer app for the mainstream. With their focus on games and Phil hinting towards all these exclusives and revived franchises, I can see them swaying the hardcore over. They just need to get rid of some of their stupid policies and focus on showing why it costs $100 more currently. The hardware difference will never be as big as we make it off gaming sites, tbh. It's the cost + hardware that has Sony doing so well.

MS' lead last go-around came from their huge head start in NA. Take that away (and it looks like that's what is happening) and Sony would have had a pretty sizable lead.

 

[Phediuk]

When was this? I can't remember any point during the last generation where someone would predict such high sales for both PS3 and the Wii and such low sales for 360. It seems strange that he would predict such a high PS3 turnaround while simultaneously predicting such low growth for the 360 post-PS3 turnaround.

Mid 2007

 

[JayEH]

I would love to hear why exactly such a thought is "crazy" considering all the available data at present would incredibly suggest that line of though as not "crazy"

Data from 6 months on the market on a potential 10 year life cycle?

Some people here are predicting the PS4 will outsell the Xbox One by as much as 30 million (or higher!). Once the Xbox goes down in price, it's sales will increase.

I ultimately do believe the PS4 will be the best selling console this generation but I think a 10 million sales gap is the upper bound of that.

PS4: 80 million
Xbox One: 75 million
Wii U: 12 million

 

[Jamix012]

Sure. But this gen will be at least 5 years. We aren't even half a year into it. Wait till that official price drop happens, wait till we see the heavy hitters, wait till we see kinectless xbone, ect.

I just don't think it will do a lot. I really expect Sony to make this generation very uncomfortable for MS and counter punch every good move MS do make. MS's biggest game until the holiday period didn't even manage to raise Xbox One sales with retailer deals and bundles in its strongest market. I just can't paint a picture where the gap between XB1 and PS4 doesn't increase substantially.

Sony were able to pull back last gen because of the lukewarm-360 sales in Europe and Japan along with their first party hitters and Japanese support. Xbox one doesn't have such luck.

 

[Coolbgdog12]

Wii U 60M once it drops to $99 with a game bundled in.

PS4 90M
Xbox One 20M


J/K

 

[Ninja Scooter]

Data from 6 months on the market on a potential 10 year life cycle?

Some people here are predicting the PS4 will outsell the Xbox One by as much as 30 million (or higher!). Once the Xbox goes down in price, it's sales will increase.

I ultimately do believe the PS4 will be the best selling console this generation but I think a 10 million sales gap is the upper bound of that.

PS4: 80 million
Xbox One: 75 million
Wii U: 12 million

In order to get to those numbers Xbox would have to massively outsell PS4 in North America again. Like, by a LOT. Do you honestly see that happening?

 

[SwiftDeath]

Data from 6 months on the market on a potential 10 year life cycle?

Some people here are predicting the PS4 will outsell the Xbox One by as much as 30 million. Once the Xbox goes down in price, it's sales will increase.

I ultimately do believe the PS4 will be the best selling console this generation but I think a 10 million sales gap is the upper bound of that.

PS4: 80 million
Xbox One: 75 million
Wii U: 12 million

Over 40M of MS's 80M [Maybe 81/82M now] were sold in the US last gen. Now PS4 leads in the US by 15%. Let's say with the price drop, MS takes the lead and manages a 30% turnaround in marketshare [i.e. now they are outpacing PS4 by 15% in the US] that is still a massive contraction in their WW sales numbers. The US lead last gen was crucial for MS's WW totals and I cannot believe they can get anywhere close to it again this gen

Unless people want to suggest that instead of losing marketshare outside the US they are actually going to gain it this gen?

 

[npa189]

MS shit the bed so hard they lost this gen. I think it will just be a role reversal of 360/PS3. Both will wind up close, but PS4 will have the lead for sometime. Wii U will be lucky to get to 15 million which is just sad, it will be known as the worst Nintendo home console in history.

 

[Rembrandt]

MS had a 60% lead over Sony last go round in the US, they sold over half, over 50% of their total WW sales of the 360 in the US Are you suggesting a swing of 75% marketshare in XB1's favor in the US then? because that is what it would take to be competitive this gen from a sales perspective

Depends how long the gen is. Of course, I don't see them outselling them worldwide, but consumers are fickle. If the XB1 drops its price, tries something revolutionary like dropping gold for multiplayer or something to present itself as a better value, I could see it having a huge surge. Look at us before E3 and how many of us changed our stance and bought it when it launched. It's unlikely, but I just can't imagine MS letting the lead get that big without doing something drastic to at least make the gap sizeable.

 

[NewGame]

Vita 120 million
WiiU 140 million
3DS discontinued, new iPhone with Nintendo's apps on it
PS4 20 million as of 2015 when The Last Guardian is finally announced as canceled
Xbones 650 million when Microsoft uses all the stolen credit card details from Kinect to purchase it's own stock of Xbones
Amazon TV Fire 50 billion

 

[Zalman]

Data from 6 months on the market on a potential 10 year life cycle?

Some people here are predicting the PS4 will outsell the Xbox One by as much as 30 million (or higher!). Once the Xbox goes down in price, it's sales will increase.

I ultimately do believe the PS4 will be the best selling console this generation but I think a 10 million sales gap is the upper bound of that.

PS4: 80 million
Xbox One: 75 million
Wii U: 12 million

There is no way the gap between PS4 and Xbox One won't be bigger. Sony is winning worldwide. Last generation, they managed to sell just as much as the 360 despite coming a year later at a much higher price. This time, they came out at the same time with PS4 being the cheaper option. Sony is going to dominate this generation unless they screw up really badly.

 

[Nouzka]

Data from 6 months on the market on a potential 10 year life cycle?

Some people here are predicting the PS4 will outsell the Xbox One by as much as 30 million (or higher!). Once the Xbox goes down in price, it's sales will increase.

I ultimately do believe the PS4 will be the best selling console this generation but I think a 10 million sales gap is the upper bound of that.

PS4: 80 million
Xbox One: 75 million
Wii U: 12 million

PS4 and Xbox difference is now about 2 million, you expect PS4 sells only 3 million more than Xbox rest of this generation? Like do you think Xbox will dominate US again or they will sell same in Europe?

 

[UltraGunner]

Using what logic? The Xbox brand doesn't have the one year head start, nor the price advantage, and at the end of the gen won't have a bigger lead in the US over Sony. It's pretty clear that there'll be a 10M+ gap between the two, if not more.

Ok maybe even is being generous, but I don't expect a lead of more than 25%. US and UK market will keep XBox going, plus there's a potential new market in China (assuming they are willing to support an American console versus a Japanese console)

 

[TheSpaceBetween]

PS4: 60M
XBone: 45M
Wii U: 20M
3DS: 70M
Vita: 20M

 

[Madness]

I highly doubt it. The US is still the most important market, but the rest of the world is crucial for LTD numbers. Xbone is dead in the water everywhere else.

And yet, if US numbers pick up, they impact all over. If Xbox One starts to get more owners, more games, a favorable price, it'll increase in sales in Canada, UK, Australia that tend to usually follow US. The only real place Xbox One is dead in the water is Japan. Otherwise I can see a good price drop and a FIFA pack in(digital code) bundle as a good way to see consoles move in Europe.

Also, while it's not as good as the Ps4, calling Xbox One dead in the water 5 months after launch is fucking ridiculous. It's selling better than Xbox 360 did and I think it's tracking better than PS3 did after launch in Europe. Price is the biggest factor affecting Xbox One, and then performance/games. Drop the price, provide enough incentives and you get sales.

 

[daman824]

I just don't think it will do a lot. I really expect Sony to make this generation very uncomfortable for MS and counter punch every good move MS do make. MS's biggest game until the holiday period didn't even manage to raise Xbox One sales with retailer deals and bundles in its strongest market. I just can't paint a picture where the gap between XB1 and PS4 doesn't increase substantially.

Sony were able to pull back last gen because of the lukewarm-360 sales in Europe and Japan along with their first party hitters and Japanese support. Xbox one doesn't have such luck.

I don't think so.

And I do think an officially announced $400 price drop will pick up sales quite a bit.

 

[Speedy Blue Dude]

Please walk me through how you arrived at these numbers.

And Wii U at 40 million? Come on now.

Alright. So I'm totally predicting like anyone else in this thread, and I already said I have high expectations because I'm optimistic about the growth of the gaming industry. By the end of each respective consoles life (I'm assuming 2019 is when they'll stop being produced and pushed, so a 6 year life span), I believe each console will do well.

The Xbox One, my choice for the "winner" is because I believe the Xbox One has shown that it is a desirable product and a successful one. The biggest barrier for the Xbox One right now seems to be the price tag, $499 just isn't a viable price tag to be purchased by anyone other than an enthusiast. I believe as the Xbox One ends it's life span, it'll probably be around $199, and Microsoft may even try the $99 subsided plan again. I believe as time goes on and it's price lowers, it will sell in the 80M-90M range, doing slightly better than it's predecessor, the Xbox 360.

The Playstation 4 is set to be sucessful already, and it's already launched at a more easily accessible price tag for many to swallow. That's a great thing because Sony already received purchases from those who won't even consider purchasing the Xbox One until it receives a price cut. The Playstation 4 will probably continue to ride it's waves of success and sell just as well as the Playstation 3 did, it's guaranteed too at this point.

I also believe the Wii U will be price cut to hell and back, maybe even going as low as $99 early into 2016, and Nintendo will just ride the generation out with a mini-success. I think if they do get it down to the $99 range and continue to release games for it, it will sell over time. This is assuming the technology and parts for the Wii U get cheap enough to allow this massive price cut.

It's like you are totally oblivious of what's going on on this planet we call "Earth".
Great comedy, as always.

What's it like in the future? I wish I could go accurately see what's going to happen in 5 years like you can.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Depends how long the gen is. Of course, I don't see them outselling them worldwide, but consumers are fickle. If the XB1 drops its price, tries something revolutionary like dropping gold for multiplayer or something to present itself as a better value, I could see it having a huge surge. Look at us before E3 and how many of us changed our stance and bought it when it launched. It's unlikely, but I just can't imagine MS letting the lead get that big without doing something drastic to at least make the gap sizeable.

The only thing I can see MS doing to try and combat such a gap would be price drops as game development is a staggered 3 year process at least. With the XB1 being as expensive hardware wise as it is I'm not convinced they're willing to drop it enough to effectively gain anything near a lead in the US to be competitive WW

 

[Occam]

EDIT: next page.